Tag Archives | polymers

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Benzene drops to naphtha price

Benzene is an excellent indicator of the outlook for industrial production, and hence for general chemical demand. Thus tonight’s ICIS news report that prices for benzene and its naphtha feedstock, are close to parity (around $390/t), tells us just how dire market conditions have become. The blog believes this has only ever happened once before […]

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Sentiment, fundamentals….and panic

Sometimes markets move because of sentiment, sometimes because of fundamentals. Sometimes (luckily rarely), because of blind panic. The latter is what we are seeing at the moment. Investors suddenly feel they MUST sell – whether because they need the cash, have completely lost confidence, or because their family and friends are advising it. Whatever the […]

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A downturn, not a dip

The blog first raised this issue last December, when noting that global chemical industry production growth had already “slowed significantly”. At that time, it questioned whether “central bankers will be able to wave the magic wand that restores us to a growth path”. And it warned “it is hard to imagine that the chemical industry […]

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‘Demand and prices in free fall’

The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about, may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about to revisit 1980, when for some weeks it seemed that demand for many petchem products had simply stopped. As Nigel Davis notes in an excellent ICIS insight article, we are not there yet. […]

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China’s export dependency grows

New light has been shed on the critical question of whether domestic growth in China, and Asia, can substitute for slowing western growth. It turns out, according to research by the Royal Bank of Scotland, that both have become more export-intensive in recent years, not less: • China’s exports were just 20% of GDP in […]

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Polymers demand slumps in Europe, China

ICIS news reports that polymer demand is falling sharply in two key markets, China and Europe. This is a bad omen for demand in other chemical markets, as polymers are closely tied to GDP growth. Linda Naylor reports that PE volumes in Europe may be down 7% in 2008. Meanwhile, John Richardson and Malini Hariharan […]

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Sinopec cuts back (a little) on petchems

China’s Sinopec has taken a lead in reviewing its petrochemical expansion plans. Speaking to employees last week, Wang Tianpu, CPC division President, noted that ‘global crude prices may remain high and the petrochemical industry may become even more competitive’. Today, he gave more details, saying that they plan to lower 2008 petchem expenditure by 4.6bn […]

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August highlights

Many readers have been out of the office during August on a well-deserved break. I am therefore highlighting below the main postings over the past month, in the hope this will help them to catch up quickly on key developments – please click on the highlighted title if you want to read the original posting: […]

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Increasing change, complexity, challenge

What is the outlook for the global economy over the next few years? Are we likely to see a continuation of the 2003-7 Global Boom (the purple line)? Will growth reduce to the average level seen between 1980-2000 (the green line)? Or are we at the start of a multi-year Global Downturn (the red line)? […]

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‘Roll-through’ pricing reappears

Linda Naylor, ICIS’s polymers guru, has just written a market analysis that took me straight back to 1980. She described how current feedstock prices meant that ‘many of Europe’s cracker operators were losing money’, and noted that Dow was being ‘very firm’ in trying to recoup these losses via higher polymer prices. However, her research […]

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