Tag Archives | Prof Daniel Kahneman

The world of $100/bbl oil is unlikely to return

Chemical markets are continuing to signal that the world faces major economic challenges in 2015.  The chart above highlights developments since August, when I first forecast that oil prices would see major falls, and that the value of US$ would see ”a strong move upwards“: Benzene, always my favourite indicator for industrial output, has suffered worst, down 56% (green) Brent […]

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Seeing is not believing

Prof Daniel Kahneman is the blog’s favourite living social scientist. He won the 2002 Nobel Prize for economics for his insight that: • Economists are wrong to assume human beings are motivated by self-interest and make rational decisions • In fact, human judgement may take short-cuts that systematically depart from basic principles of probability • […]

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