Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS)

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AFPM '24: INSIGHT: Biden ending term with regulatory bang for US chems

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The administration of US President Joe Biden is proposing a wave of regulations before its term ends in 2025, many of which will increase costs for chemical companies in the US and persist even if the nation elects a new president later this year. The prospect of such consequential policies comes as delegates head into this year's International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). Changes to the Clean Waters Act, the Risk Management Program (RMP) and the Hazard Communication Standard are among the most consequential policies being considered by US regulators. Electric vehicles (EVs) could receive more support from federal and state governments. This would increase demand for plastics used in EVs while discouraging refiners from making further investments, which could limit US production of benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX). The failure of Congress to re-authorize the nation's chemical site security program could spell its end. REGULATORY PUSH DURING ELECTION YEARSuch a regulatory push by the Biden administration was flagged last year by the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD), the new name for the National Association of Chemical Distributors (NACD). The group was not crying wolf. The next nine months could rank among the worst for the chemical industry in terms of regulatory change and potential issues, said Eric Byer, president of the ACD. "Whatever it's going to be, it will come done fairly aggressively." The Biden administration has proposed several consequential policies. For the Clean Water Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing new requirements, which will require chemical producers and other companies to develop plans to address the worst possible discharge from their plants. The ACD warned that the new requirement would raise compliance costs while doing little to reduce the already small number of discharges by plants. The final rule is scheduled to be published in April 2024. For the RMP, changes could require chemical companies to share information that has been off limits since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The concern is that the information will fall into the wrong hands, while significantly increasing costs to comply with the new requirements, according to the ACD. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is introducing changes to its Hazard Communication Standard that could create more burdens for companies. The ACD warned that some of the changes will increase costs without providing a commensurate improvement in safety. The EPA has started the multiyear process that, under the regulator's current whole-chemical approach, will lead to restrictions imposed on vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), acrylonitrile (ACN) and aniline, a chemical used to make methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). This is being done through the nation's main chemical safety program, known as the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). MORE POLICIES PROPOSED FOR EVsThe Biden administration is proposing additional polices to encourage the adoption of EVs. For chemical producers, more EVs would increase demand for plastics, resins and thermal management fluids that are designed to meet the material challenges of these automobiles. At the same time, the push towards EVs could limit sales of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs), lowering demand for gasoline and diesel. Refiners could decide to shut down and repurpose their complexes if they expect demand for their main products will stop growing or decline. That would lower production of aromatics and other refinery chemicals and refined products. The Biden administration is moving on three fronts to encourage EV sales. The EPA is expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II), which would phase out the sale of ICE-based vehicles to 2035. If the EPA grants California's request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. The EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal would impose stricter standards on tail pipe emissions. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) is proposing stricter efficiency standards under its Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. The AFPM opposes these measures. It said the EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal and DOT's new CAFE standards are so demanding, it would force automobile companies to produce a lot more EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles to meet the more ambitious requirements. LAX OVERSIGHT OF SHIPPING RATES IN WAKE OF HOUTHISThe ACD raised concerns that the US is not doing enough to address the possibility that shipping rates and delays have increased beyond what could be justified by the disruptions caused by the drought in Panama and by the Houthi attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal. The ACD accepts that costs will rise, but it expressed concerns that shipping companies could be taking advantage of the situation by charging excessive rates on routes unaffected by the disruptions. These include routes from India and China to the western coast of the US, Byer said. "Why are you jacking up the price two or threefold?" LABOR NEGOTIATIONS FOR US EAST COASTThe work contract will expire this year for dockworkers and ports along the East Coast of the US. Byer warned of a possible strike if the talks become too contentious. On the West Coast, dockworkers and ports reached an agreement on a six-year work contract. CFATS ON LIFE SUPPORTByer expressed concerns about the future of the main chemical-site security program, called the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS). CFATS is overseen by the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which is under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). CISA lost authority to implement CFATS on 28 July 2023, when a bill that would have re-authorized it was blocked from going to a vote in the Senate. Without CFATS, other federal and state agencies could create their own chemical-site security regulations. This process has already started in the US state of Nebraska, where State Senator Eliot Bostar introduced LB1048. Other nearby states in the plains could introduce similar bills, because they tend to follow each other's lead, Byer said. Many of these state legislatures should wrap up sessions in the next couple of months, so lawmakers still have time to propose chemical-site security bills. The ACD is most concerned about larger states creating chemical-site security programs, such as California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. SENATE RAIL BILL REMAINS PENDINGA Senate rail safety bill has been pending for more than a year after a bipartisan group of legislators introduced it following the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. Congress has about 10 months to approve the bill before it lapses, Byer said. For bills in general, action during an election year could happen around the Memorial Day holiday in May, the 4 July recess, the August recess or before the end of September. After September, legislators will be focused on campaigning for the 5 November election. TEXAS BRINGS BACK TAX BREAKS FOR INDUSTRIAL PROJECTSTexas has revived a program that granted tax breaks to new chemical plants and other large industrial projects. The new program is called the Texas Jobs and Security Act, and it replaced the lapsed Chapter 313 School Value Limitation Agreement. The old program was popular with chemical companies, and their applications were among the first public disclosures of their expansion plans. The new program has already attracted applicants. Summit Next Gen is considering a plant that would convert 450 million gal/year of ethanol into 256 million gal/year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Hosted by the AFPM, the IPC takes place on March 24-26. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a federal building. Image by Lucky-photographer

18-Mar-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 March. Europe ethylene and propylene sentiment cautiously optimistic for remainder of H1 Given the better-than-expected demand conditions, with improved sales volumes and higher prices lifting many out of the mire that was 2023, the question on everyone’s lips is how long can we expect this state of affairs to last. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Surging PET bottle bale prices threaten to ‘destroy’ Europe’s R-PET market Feedstock bale prices hit €930/tonne ex-works in Poland on Monday, prompting recycled PET participants to suggest such price levels threaten to destroy the R-PET market as they fear a repeat of 2022’s disastrous price volatility. Europe acetic acid, VAM contract talks for March focus on supply disruption March negotiations are underway for European acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) contract pricing with security of supply a key influence on negotiations amid LyondellBasell’s force majeure in the US and other disruptions to global trade flows. Caution caps optimism as peak season arrives for Europe styrene market Spot activity in the Europe styrene market was moderate in the week ended 8 March, as players attended a key industry event, while cautious and conservative sentiment persisted alongside crosswinds from ongoing demand weakness and thin liquidity, high feedstock costs and reduced availability. Participants pointed to only slight improvements in demand and market optimism from levels seen in 2023. Europe cracker margins up on firmer ethylene, co-products pricing Cracker margins in Europe rose in the week on the back of firmer ethylene and co-product pricing, ICIS Margin Analysis showed on Monday.

18-Mar-2024

US Trinseo seeks to sell stake in AmSty

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Trinseo has started the process to sell its 50% stake in Americas Styrenics (AmSty), the US-based engineered materials producer said on Wednesday. AmSty makes styrene and polystyrene (PS). The company has initiated the ownership provision in the joint venture agreement. That provision includes a structured mechanism that will lead to the sale of Trinseo's stake in AmSty. "We have a clear pathway to divest our interest in the joint venture," said Frank Bozich, CEO. "We expect the exit process to lead to a definitive arrangement no later than early 2025." Trinseo did not name any prospective buyers or how much money it could make on the deal. Trinseo will spend the proceeds of the sale on paying down $1.077 billion in recently issued term loans. Those loans mature in 2028. Chevron Phillips Chemical owns the remaining stake in AmSty. Trinseo is also trying to sell its wholly owned styrenics assets, with a focus on marketing individual plants and regional businesses. Trinseo's other businesses include Latex Binders, Base Plastics and Engineered Materials. Thumbnail shows a cup made of polystyrene. Image by ICIS.

13-Mar-2024

Lotte Chemical mulls 'strategic measures' for Malaysian-listed LC Titan

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean producer Lotte Chemical said on Thursday that it is exploring options for its Malaysian subsidiary, in response to local media reports that the unit is up for sale. "We are considering various strategic measures related to LC Titan [Lotte Chemical Titan] which is our subsidiary, but nothing has been decided so far," Lotte Chemical chief financial officer Seong Nak-sun said in a stock exchange filing. "We will re-announce the details within a month or when they are decided in the future," Seong added. Lotte Chemical and LC Titan could not be immediately reached for further comments on the potential sale. At 05:30 GMT, shares of the two listed companies were trading lower, with Lotte Chemical down 1.63% in Seoul, and LC Titan down 1.72% in Kuala Lumpur. According to media reports on Thursday, Lotte Chemical has already initiated the process of selling LC Titan, citing unnamed sources. "We're actively reviewing ways to optimize our portfolio, which includes considering the potential sale of LC Titan. However, a definitive decision has not yet been reached," an unnamed Lotte Chemical official was quoted by The Korea Economic Daily (KED) as saying. Lotte Chemical is approaching both domestic and international companies, along with private equity firms through investment banks, to be potential buyers for its Malaysian arm, KED reported. The Korean producer is planning to sell all outstanding shares of LC Titan traded on the Malaysian stock market, which is equivalent to 74.7% of the company, valuing the firm at around $550m based on current market capitalization, it added. LC Titan has incurred a second year of net loss, which widened to Malaysian ringgit (M$) 780.3m in 2023 as sales declined by 24% to M$7.65bn. Malaysia's LC Titan full-year financial results in thousand ringgit (M$) FY2023 FY2022 % change Sales           7,646,170         10,019,083 -23.7 Loss from operations           (868,001)         (1,041,451) -16.7 Net profit            (780,286)            (731,061) 6.7 Meanwhile, parent firm Lotte Chemical swung into a net loss last year. S Korea's Lotte Chemical full-year financial results in billion S Korean won (W) 2023 2022 % Change Sales 19,949 22,276 -10.4 EBITDA 839 185 353.5 Operating profit -333 -763 Net income -301 28 In the notes accompanying its financial results released on 7 February, Lotte Chemical had stated that that it “will pursue advancement and improvements to the business portfolio in order to actively respond to changes in the business environment of the petrochemical industry and improve profitability through efficient management of existing petrochemical businesses”. “The weak market conditions of the petrochemical industry are ongoing due to reduced demand and dropping product prices resulting from global uncertainties, as well as increased supply burdens caused by large-scale ethylene plant expansions in China,” it said. The acquisition of Malaysian company Titan Chemicals in 2010 was the Korean firm’s first foray into southeast Asia. The acquired company was rebranded Lotte Chemical Titan, and in 2017, was listed on the Malaysian bourse. LC Titan operates 12 plants at two sites in Johor, Malaysia; and holds a 40% stake in LOTTE Chemical USA based in Houston, Texas. In Indonesia, the company operates polyethylene plants, and in Q1 2022,  started construction of LOTTE Chemical Indonesia New Ethylene (LINE) Project, which will increase production capacity in Cilegon by 65% to 5.88m tonnes/year. The project is expected to produce 1m tonnes/year of ethylene; 520,000 tonnes/year of propylene; 250,000 tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP); and 140,000 tonnes/year of butadiene (BD). It is scheduled to be completed in 2025. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman ($1 = M$4.71; $1 = W1,330) Thumbnail image: A Lotte Chemical Titan plant in Pasir Gudang, Malaysia (Source: Lotte Chemical Titan)

07-Mar-2024

Brazil’s Unigel halts fertilizers production on high natural gas prices

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Unigel is to “temporarily stop” nitrogen fertilizers production because of high costs and low prices, effective on Wednesday, the Brazilian chemicals and fertilizers producer said. Unigel said natural gas prices in Brazil are one of the highest in the world, and six times higher than in the US or the Middle East, “despite efforts” by multiple stakeholders, including the government, to lower them. “Unigel suffered losses throughout 2023 and also in 2024, but it retained the majority of its staff in expectations that negotiations and work fronts seeking to reduce the price of natural gas would be successful,” said the company. “The company will continue to have a minimum infrastructure for maintenance and preservation of assets, in addition to ensuring compliance with legal and socio-environmental commitments.” Unigel’s move comes after it signed a tolling agreement with Petrobras in December for the functioning of two nitrogen fertilizers plants in the states of Sergipe and Bahia. The two plants were leased to Unigel by Petrobras in 2019. It also comes just weeks after Unigel’s creditors agreed to a debt restructuring of the company’s beleaguered financial metrics. The plant in Camacari, Bahia, can produce 475,000 tonnes/year of ammonia and 475,000 tonnes/year of urea. The plant in Laranjeirs Sergipe, can produce 650,000 tonnes/year of urea, 450,000 tonnes/year of ammonia and 320,000 tonnes/year of ammonium sulphate (AS). “[After leasing the plants in 2019] Unigel contributed to reducing the country's extreme dependence on the import of nitrogen fertilizers by approximately 15%, which is essential for agribusiness, today the most important sector of our economy, and directly impacts Brazilians' food security,” said Unigel. “Furthermore, Unigel is the only national producer of ARLA, an additive added to diesel engines to reduce the emission of polluting gases.” The company added that once the precedent conditions in the tolling contract have been met, it would be able to “reevaluate the resumption” of production. Unigel's chemicals divivions produces styrene and polystyrene (PS), among other materials. Front page picture source: Unigel

06-Mar-2024

INSIGHT: Indorama flags peak oil demand in possible plant closures

HOUSTON (ICIS)–While Indorama Ventures reviews six sites for possible closure, it will consider signs that oil demand will continue growing in emerging Asia while peaking in Europe and North America – a trend that would alter the regional costs of a principal polyester feedstock, making it more attractive to import it from Asia than make it in the West. Benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX) are produced in refineries, and they are among the fundamental building blocks for the chemical industry. If oil demand peaks in the West, that would discourage refiners from expanding capacity or making the expensive investments needed to maintain existing production levels. That would tighten supplies for these building blocks, affecting costs for chemicals as varies as phenol, styrene and paraxylene (PX). By contrast, oil demand has yet to peak among emerging economies in Asia. There, refiners will continue to increase capacity to meet growing demand for diesel and gasoline. Supplies of aromatics should continue growing in those regions. Indorama is taking the prospect of peak oil seriously because a key polyester feedstock, purified terephthalic acid (PTA), is made from PX, and PX is extracted from MX. If Western PTA prices become too expensive, then it would make more sense for Indorama to shut down its high-cost plants in the West and purchase the feedstock from producers in Asia that can sell material at a lower price. Indorama did not specify which plants it could close. PEAK OIL IN WEST SPELLS END OF NEW REFINERIESIndorama expects oil demand in the West will soon peak, perhaps in 2025 or 2026, said Aloke Lohia, Group CEO of Indorama. He made his comments in an interview with ICIS. His comments are backed by statistics from the Energy Information (EIA). Outside of the post-COVID rebound in 2021, gasoline demand in the US has been running below pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, it reached a summertime peak of nearly 9.60 million bbl/day. That is more in line with summer levels in 2015. Given the outlook for oil demand in the West, Indorama is betting that refiners will unlikely make the pricey investments necessary to increase capacity. "No one is looking to build a new refinery," Lohia said. Refiners could even shirk from making the investments needed to maintain existing capacity. "We believe there will be de-growth in refineries in the West and hence high cost for crude oil derivatives that has hurt our competitiveness, especially in Europe," Lohia said in prepared remarks. Actions by refiners are bearing this out. LyondellBasell plans to shut down its Houston refinery because it cannot justify the capital expenditures needed to keep the 100+ year old complex running. Although ExxonMobil recently expanded its refinery in Beaumont, Texas, the last time a refiner made a comparable investment was in 2012, when Motiva expanded its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. Several refiners have converted existing units to process vegetable oils and similar feedstock to produce renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). LyondellBasell could convert its Houston refinery into a sustainability hub. OIL DEMAND TO CONTINUE GROWING IN EMERGING ASIAUnlike the West, Indorama expects oil demand to continue growing in emerging Asia. Governments in this part of the world have less aggressive schedules for reducing carbon emissions, with net-zero goals further out in the future, Lohia said. Reducing carbon emissions boils down to renewable electricity. Instead of producing power by burning coal and natural gas, countries would do so with renewable sources such as solar panels, wind turbines and hydropower. Renewable electricity could also be used to generate heat. Emerging economies have limited power production, and they want to use that electricity to rapidly industrialize, according to Indorama. De-carbonization and industrialization will compete for limited power generation. That will place a limit on the expansion of charging stations needed for electric vehicles (EVs). Until emerging markets build out electrical infrastructure, they will still need petroleum-based fuels. Consequently, emerging markets are giving themselves more time to reduce carbon emissions. In China in particular, some companies could rush to complete new expansion projects before decarbonization deadlines take effect, Lohia said. China already has too much capacity, so this building spree will worsen the supply glut. As it stands, crude oil processing in China reached 14.8 million bbl/day in 2023, an all-time high, according to the EIA. Growing refining capacity should increase supplies of aromatics such as PX, the feedstock used to make purified terephthalic acid (PTA). That should depress PTA production costs. INDORAMA'S PLANGiven the global outlook for chemical feedstock produced at refineries, Indorama is considering a plan that would reduce consumption of these feedstocks at its Western operations. Instead of producing feedstock at high-cost plants, Indorama would import the material from Asia. Production lost from any closures would be offset by increasing utilization rates at Indorama's low-cost plants. The move would significantly increase Indorama's overall operating rates and lead to double-digit returns on capital employed (ROCE) for the two businesses most exposed to MX, Combined PET (CPET) and Fibers. US SHALE MAY SPARE DOMESTIC PLANTSThe calculus is less straightforward for Indorama's US operations. Critically, these operations include methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), an octane-boosting gasoline blendstock that is made with methanol and isobutylene. In the US, both of these chemicals are made from shale-based feedstock, giving Indorama a substantial cost advantage. When gasoline prices rise, Indorama's MTBE operations can earn the company very attractive margins. Those fat MTBE margins would offset the higher costs involved with producing PTA from PX extracted from MX. MX is another octane-boosting blendstock, so its price tends to rise and fall with that for gasoline. In effect, MTBE provides Indorama with a hedge against higher MX costs for its US PET operations. MX is not the only feedstock used to make PET. The other is monoethylene glycol (MEG), a chemical made from ethylene. US ethylene producers predominantly on ethane as a feedstock, giving them a cost advantage. For Indorama's PET operations in the US, shale gas gives the company a cost advantage on the MEG side and a hedge on the PTA side. Thumbnail shows bottle made of PET. Image by monticello/imageBROKER/Shutterstock Insight article by Al Greenwood

05-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 1 March 2024. Asian spot TiO2 market set to enjoy support in March By Joson Ng 01-Mar-24 13:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The titanium dioxide (TiO2) Asian spot market is likely to see improving or stable demand in March, especially in China, as the traditional peak demand season kicks in. As producers in China are also citing a healthy number of orders on hand, they are not likely to allow cargoes to go unless the bids are close to their valuation. Korea’s S-Oil targets $2bn capex for Ulsan oil-to-chems project in '24 By Pearl Bantillo 29-Feb-24 12:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean refiner S-Oil has earmarked won (W) 2.72tr ($2bn) this year for its thermal crude-to-chemical (TC2C) project called Shaheen, representing 87% of the total capital expenditure (capex) set for 2024. VIDEO: China VAM market remains firm post-holiday on tighter spot supply By Joanne Wang 29-Feb-24 11:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)– ICIS senior industry analyst Joanne Wang reviews the vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market in China in early 2024 and shares a brief market outlook. Japan January inflation at 2.0%; end to negative interest rates in sight By Nurluqman Suratman 27-Feb-24 14:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan's core consumer inflation in January rose by 2.0%, matching the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) price stability target and supporting expectations that the central bank will end its ultra-low interest rates policy by April. Asia oxo-alcohols find support in post-holiday market on tight supply By Julia Tan 26-Feb-24 12:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s spot oxo-alcohols import markets saw quiet trade in the post-holiday period, with limited buying interest from northeast Asian buyers as most opted to assume a wait-and-see stance. Buyers are generally only expected to begin procurement activity following the Lantern Festival, which took place on 24 February. Asia BD spot market buoyant with active China exports By Ai Teng Lim 23-Feb-24 10:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Discussions for Asian butadiene (BD) imports picked up this week as China embarked on active export sales.

04-Mar-2024

AdvanSix petitions US to impose Superfund taxes on imports of nylon 6, capro

HOUSTON (ICIS)–AdvanSix has requested that the US impose Superfund taxes on imports of nylon 6 and caprolactam (capro). On Tuesday, AdvanSix did not immediately respond to a request for comment. AdvanSix proposed a tax rate of $14.77/ton. The next step is for the government to gather comments and consider requests for hearings about AdvanSix's request. The deadline to file comments or request hearings is 22 April. HOW THE SUPERFUND TAX WORKSThe US introduced the Superfund taxes in mid-2022 on taxable chemicals and imports of taxable substances. The proceeds raised by the taxes will help replenish the government's Superfund program, which pays for clean-up at waste sites. The Superfund tax regime divides materials into two groups. The first group is levied on the sale or use of 42 chemicals by producers or importers. Many of these chemicals are fundamental building blocks such as ethylene, propylene, butadiene (BD), benzene, toluene, xylene and methane. The second group is restricted to imports and covers substances that are sold or used in the US. This second batch of taxes applies to substances that contain at least 20% of the 42 taxable chemicals. In addition, the taxable rate would depend on the proportion of the 42 taxable chemicals contained in the substance. The request by AdvanSix falls under this second group. As part of its request AdvanSix filed two petitions asking the US to add nylon 6 and capro to its list of taxable substances. Thumbnail shows nylon Image by Shutterstock.

27-Feb-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 23 February 2024. Asia BD spot market buoyant with active China exports By Ai Teng Lim 23-Feb-24 10:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Discussions for Asian butadiene (BD) imports picked up this week as China embarked on active export sales. SE Asia PE March offers firmer as tight Middle East supply persists By Izham Ahma 22-Feb-24 10:12 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Initial spot import offers for March polyethylene (PE) shipments in southeast Asia were announced firmer in the week ending 23 February, with many major Middle Eastern suppliers still showing limited spot volume available. Japan January chemical exports up 11%; overall shipments at record high By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Feb-24 13:20 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan's chemical shipments in January rose by 11.2% year on year to yen (Y) 865.9bn ($5.8bn), with overall exports hitting a record high for the month, thus, easing some concerns over Asia's highly industrialised economy which tipped into a technical recession in the second half of 2023. Asia petchem markets await China's demand signals after holiday By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Feb-24 13:56 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's petrochemical markets will closely watch China's demand signals after the Lunar New Year holiday amid ongoing concerns about the country’s economic health. PODCAST: Asian olefins to see support amid tighter supply, Panama congestion persists By Julia Tan 21-Feb-24 19:51 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's ethylene (C2) market saw supply tighten amid fewer volumes from the US in Q1 as a direct result of congestion at the Panama Canal.

26-Feb-2024

Asia petchem markets await China's demand signals after holiday

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's petrochemical markets will closely watch China's demand signals after the Lunar New Year holiday amid ongoing concerns about the country’s economic health. Asia markets eye China's post-holiday demand signals China's economic health remains central concern Prices likely to rise amid supply constraints Markets in Asia took a breather in the week of 12-16 February, with Lunar New Year holidays in China, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore, while countries such as South Korea, Japan and Indonesia observed public holidays as well. Market participants are cautious about the post-holiday market; while some downstream buyers will restock after the holidays, there is concern that existing inventory held by domestic China producers and distributors will largely satisfy demand until early March. PRICES LIKELY TO RISE AMID SUPPLY CONSTRAINTSPetrochemical prices in Asia are expected to continue to increase in February, supported by capacity losses from outages and run-rate reductions, according to ICIS analysts. Among the 31 major petrochemical commodities covered by the ICIS Asia Price Forecast, average February prices for at least 22 of these commodities are anticipated to increase. Ethylene (C2), butadiene (BD) and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) are expected to lead in terms of gains. In Asia’s C2 market, end-users who have yet to settle March arrival cargo are expected to hit the ground running once most of players return to the market this week. In the southeast Asia C2 market, demand enquiries were largely heard from Thailand last week, while other end-users in Indonesia have begun to look towards the April window for spot cargo. "The Asia C2 industry is likely to be characterised by tight supply in the weeks to come," said Paolo Scafetta, ICIS senior olefins analyst. "February should see about 7% of total monthly nameplate capacity lost due to downtime unless unplanned events cause further technical hiccups." The upstream naphtha market in Asia should be influenced by a few bearish factors, Scafetta added. These include the shift from naphtha to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as an alternative cracking feedstock and an improvement in supply from March as naphtha cargoes are expected to increase as Middle East refineries return from their maintenance. Asia's naphtha market is likely to be plagued with volatility in the short term as tensions in the Red Sea will continue to disrupt supplies. In Asia’s propylene (C3) market, trade was largely subdued during the Lunar New Year break but picked up towards the close of the week with most market players, except China, returning from their holiday. Talks and discussions in Taiwan commenced at the end of the week after the holidays ended. However, the post-holiday buying sentiment weakened on the back of ample supply, leading sellers to progressively lower their offers and selling indications. With buyers in China largely away from the market, overall business activity during the week was muted. In southeast Asia, while demand was also heard in Malaysia and Indonesia, most buyers continued to hold back from purchases on the expectation that supply tightness might result in an easing in offers down the road. In Asia’s benzene market, post-holiday restocking is expected to pick up in the second half of February amid strong competition for April and May cargoes from global players. February and March benzene cargoes have been already sold out and April cargoes are in strong demand. Benzene buyers based in both Asia and the West had actively sought procurement since end-January, for pre-holiday and pre-summer stocking up respectively. Asia's acetone market looks poised to maintain its strength. This is due to the high prices of benzene, reduced production leading to tighter supply, and a resurgence in trading flows between Asia and the West. A significant increase in demand for Asia acetone from the US market is bolstering this trend. Limited supply in the US, a result of low phenol production and ongoing allocations, is driving this demand. Meanwhile, supply within Asia is also constrained as phenol/acetone producers scale back production in response to unprofitable margins and decreased demand for phenol in China. In the xylene markets, further support in the market will be dependent on downstream sectors after the Lunar New Year holidays, with eyes firmly on China. For paraxylene (PX), there remains optimism for gasoline-blending demand heading into the second quarter, with positive arbitrage window economics for exports to the West. Firm upstream naphtha prices have also provided some support for PX. Several market participants noted there had been pre-buying of mixed xylenes (MX) and toluene by gasoline blenders to the US. Demand and price developments in the downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and polyester sectors will help provide clarity about whether high PX costs can be absorbed down the chain. Asia's butyl acetate (butac) and ethyl acetate (etac) markets are poised to stay afloat on anticipated post-holiday demand, albeit at a gradual pace. Sellers of butac in both China and the region largely maintained their spot offers for March loading prior to the Lunar New Year holiday. Spot butac prices were on a downtrend in the early part of the fourth quarter of 2023 and have climbed since December, in part driven by cost pressures upstream as suppliers worked towards mitigating compressed margins. Asia’s methylene chloride (MEC) market might be bullish after the Lunar New Year holiday, as rising demand is likely to shift the market to a more balanced state. Most buyers were in a wait-and-see mode, monitoring prices and observing what producers would offer after the Lunar New Year break, with market participants in southeast Asia eyeing a rebound in demand through Q2, around the Ramadan period. CHINA'S ECONOMIC HEALTH IN FOCUS ICIS analysts expect most of China's end-use consumption, including in industries such as agriculture and home appliances, to recover from March. The China government's Two Sessions policy meetings, widely seen as the most important political meeting of the year for the country, will be held on 4-11 March. ICIS analysts expect another series of policies to be introduced to stimulate economic growth. Further market and infrastructure investment can boost petrochemicals demand. Latest official data from China is pointing to some recovery from domestic tourism trips and revenues. Domestic tourism trips and revenues during the Lunar New Year holidays in China jumped by 34.3% and 47.3% year on year respectively, with their levels at 19.0% and 7.7% above pre-pandemic levels in 2019, data from the country’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism (MCT) shows. "Most official and private media channels have been reporting strong (or even exceptionally strong) Lunar New Year holiday consumption data, and markets risk getting caught up in the euphoria of the moment, under the supposition that China’s economy is suddenly bottoming out, driven by the Chinese people’s hidden passion for spending," research analysts from Japan's Nomura Global Markets Research said in a note. "Although we do see some strength in the data, we urge market participants to exercise caution," it said, adding that China's property sector continued its downward spiral, right before the Lunar New Year holiday, and there was no sign of a recovery during the holiday. "Despite the positive [Lunar New Year] data, we maintain our view that the ongoing economic dip is likely to worsen into the spring," Nomura said. With additional reporting by Josh Quah, Julia Tan, Seng Li Peng, Angeline Soh, Helen Lee, Keven Zhang, Melanie Wee and Samuel Wong Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail photo: Lunar New Year lanterns in Shenyang, northeast China's Liaoning Province, on 1 February 2021. Asia will closely watch China's demand signals after the Lunar New Year holiday amid concerns about the country’s economic health. (Source: Xinhua/Shutterstock)

19-Feb-2024

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