Global acrylonitrile (ACN) prices have been on an upswing this year amid rising feedstock propylene costs, improving demand and limited supply in Asia, and the trend is expected to continue in the second quarter of the year.
ACN producers in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have turnarounds during this period, limiting spot availability. The tighter-than-expected ACN supply in Asia coincides with an expected increase in demand from the downstream acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) sector.
Spot prices in the US ACN market jumped by an average of 30% between the end of 2011 and mid-February. The January contract – which is based on a formula involving the February propylene contract and spot price movement of ammonia during January – increased by 15.5% for domestic product delivered (DEL) out of the US Gulf and by 23.6% for export free on board (FOB) volumes.
Buyers in Europe warn that values are shooting up too fast and that the market could see a crash similar to last year, when ACN prices soared by $550–650/tonne between January and May – to a peak of $2,850–3,000/tonne CIF (cost, insurance & freight) WE (western Europe) – before falling to $1,600–1,800/tonne by November.