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There are endless potential uses for synthetic rubbers which can be found in everything from vehicle tyres to footwear. Spikes in demand occur frequently due to the breadth of downstream sectors in play, as well as the changeable market dynamics of each. Synthetic rubbers market players therefore need fast and easy access to accurate, relevant and timely information. This way, the right decisions can be made quickly.

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AFPM '24: INSIGHT: Biden ending term with regulatory bang for US chems

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The administration of US President Joe Biden is proposing a wave of regulations before its term ends in 2025, many of which will increase costs for chemical companies in the US and persist even if the nation elects a new president later this year. The prospect of such consequential policies comes as delegates head into this year's International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). Changes to the Clean Waters Act, the Risk Management Program (RMP) and the Hazard Communication Standard are among the most consequential policies being considered by US regulators. Electric vehicles (EVs) could receive more support from federal and state governments. This would increase demand for plastics used in EVs while discouraging refiners from making further investments, which could limit US production of benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX). The failure of Congress to re-authorize the nation's chemical site security program could spell its end. REGULATORY PUSH DURING ELECTION YEARSuch a regulatory push by the Biden administration was flagged last year by the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD), the new name for the National Association of Chemical Distributors (NACD). The group was not crying wolf. The next nine months could rank among the worst for the chemical industry in terms of regulatory change and potential issues, said Eric Byer, president of the ACD. "Whatever it's going to be, it will come done fairly aggressively." The Biden administration has proposed several consequential policies. For the Clean Water Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing new requirements, which will require chemical producers and other companies to develop plans to address the worst possible discharge from their plants. The ACD warned that the new requirement would raise compliance costs while doing little to reduce the already small number of discharges by plants. The final rule is scheduled to be published in April 2024. For the RMP, changes could require chemical companies to share information that has been off limits since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The concern is that the information will fall into the wrong hands, while significantly increasing costs to comply with the new requirements, according to the ACD. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is introducing changes to its Hazard Communication Standard that could create more burdens for companies. The ACD warned that some of the changes will increase costs without providing a commensurate improvement in safety. The EPA has started the multiyear process that, under the regulator's current whole-chemical approach, will lead to restrictions imposed on vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), acrylonitrile (ACN) and aniline, a chemical used to make methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). This is being done through the nation's main chemical safety program, known as the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). MORE POLICIES PROPOSED FOR EVsThe Biden administration is proposing additional polices to encourage the adoption of EVs. For chemical producers, more EVs would increase demand for plastics, resins and thermal management fluids that are designed to meet the material challenges of these automobiles. At the same time, the push towards EVs could limit sales of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs), lowering demand for gasoline and diesel. Refiners could decide to shut down and repurpose their complexes if they expect demand for their main products will stop growing or decline. That would lower production of aromatics and other refinery chemicals and refined products. The Biden administration is moving on three fronts to encourage EV sales. The EPA is expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II), which would phase out the sale of ICE-based vehicles to 2035. If the EPA grants California's request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. The EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal would impose stricter standards on tail pipe emissions. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) is proposing stricter efficiency standards under its Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. The AFPM opposes these measures. It said the EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal and DOT's new CAFE standards are so demanding, it would force automobile companies to produce a lot more EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles to meet the more ambitious requirements. LAX OVERSIGHT OF SHIPPING RATES IN WAKE OF HOUTHISThe ACD raised concerns that the US is not doing enough to address the possibility that shipping rates and delays have increased beyond what could be justified by the disruptions caused by the drought in Panama and by the Houthi attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal. The ACD accepts that costs will rise, but it expressed concerns that shipping companies could be taking advantage of the situation by charging excessive rates on routes unaffected by the disruptions. These include routes from India and China to the western coast of the US, Byer said. "Why are you jacking up the price two or threefold?" LABOR NEGOTIATIONS FOR US EAST COASTThe work contract will expire this year for dockworkers and ports along the East Coast of the US. Byer warned of a possible strike if the talks become too contentious. On the West Coast, dockworkers and ports reached an agreement on a six-year work contract. CFATS ON LIFE SUPPORTByer expressed concerns about the future of the main chemical-site security program, called the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS). CFATS is overseen by the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which is under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). CISA lost authority to implement CFATS on 28 July 2023, when a bill that would have re-authorized it was blocked from going to a vote in the Senate. Without CFATS, other federal and state agencies could create their own chemical-site security regulations. This process has already started in the US state of Nebraska, where State Senator Eliot Bostar introduced LB1048. Other nearby states in the plains could introduce similar bills, because they tend to follow each other's lead, Byer said. Many of these state legislatures should wrap up sessions in the next couple of months, so lawmakers still have time to propose chemical-site security bills. The ACD is most concerned about larger states creating chemical-site security programs, such as California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. SENATE RAIL BILL REMAINS PENDINGA Senate rail safety bill has been pending for more than a year after a bipartisan group of legislators introduced it following the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. Congress has about 10 months to approve the bill before it lapses, Byer said. For bills in general, action during an election year could happen around the Memorial Day holiday in May, the 4 July recess, the August recess or before the end of September. After September, legislators will be focused on campaigning for the 5 November election. TEXAS BRINGS BACK TAX BREAKS FOR INDUSTRIAL PROJECTSTexas has revived a program that granted tax breaks to new chemical plants and other large industrial projects. The new program is called the Texas Jobs and Security Act, and it replaced the lapsed Chapter 313 School Value Limitation Agreement. The old program was popular with chemical companies, and their applications were among the first public disclosures of their expansion plans. The new program has already attracted applicants. Summit Next Gen is considering a plant that would convert 450 million gal/year of ethanol into 256 million gal/year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Hosted by the AFPM, the IPC takes place on March 24-26. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a federal building. Image by Lucky-photographer

18-Mar-2024

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 15 March. US CPI inflation 'sticky' at 3.2%, may delay Fed rate cuts – ICIS economist US inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose 0.4% month on month in February, leaving it up 3.2% year on year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. LyondellBasell sees signs of modest improvement in Q1 – CEO LyondellBasell is seeing some indications of modest improvement in its businesses, particularly in North America and Europe, with packaging being the strongest end market, its CEO said on Wednesday. US Trinseo seeks to sell stake in AmSty Trinseo has started the process to sell its 50% stake in Americas Styrenics (AmSty), the US-based engineered materials producer said on Wednesday. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. INSIGHT: US aromatics, refining output recedes as peak oil approaches Peak oil demand in the US could lead to a further decline in refining capacity, which will tighten supplies of benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) for downstream chemical producers. Unipar expects hardship in Argentina but Brazil PVC demand should recover Unipar’s operations in Argentina are set to face pressure from the current recession but a bright spot could appear in higher civil engineering activity in Brazil, propping up demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Friday.

18-Mar-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 March. Europe ethylene and propylene sentiment cautiously optimistic for remainder of H1 Given the better-than-expected demand conditions, with improved sales volumes and higher prices lifting many out of the mire that was 2023, the question on everyone’s lips is how long can we expect this state of affairs to last. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Surging PET bottle bale prices threaten to ‘destroy’ Europe’s R-PET market Feedstock bale prices hit €930/tonne ex-works in Poland on Monday, prompting recycled PET participants to suggest such price levels threaten to destroy the R-PET market as they fear a repeat of 2022’s disastrous price volatility. Europe acetic acid, VAM contract talks for March focus on supply disruption March negotiations are underway for European acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) contract pricing with security of supply a key influence on negotiations amid LyondellBasell’s force majeure in the US and other disruptions to global trade flows. Caution caps optimism as peak season arrives for Europe styrene market Spot activity in the Europe styrene market was moderate in the week ended 8 March, as players attended a key industry event, while cautious and conservative sentiment persisted alongside crosswinds from ongoing demand weakness and thin liquidity, high feedstock costs and reduced availability. Participants pointed to only slight improvements in demand and market optimism from levels seen in 2023. Europe cracker margins up on firmer ethylene, co-products pricing Cracker margins in Europe rose in the week on the back of firmer ethylene and co-product pricing, ICIS Margin Analysis showed on Monday.

18-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 March 2024. INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Mar-24 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. INSIGHT: Policies announced in China Two Sessions will impact domestic petchems market in 2024 By Jimmy Zhang 14-Mar-24 23:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's Two Sessions earlier this month – the yearly meetings where its legislature sets laws and its advisory body offers policy recommendations – attracted attention from the market for the growth targets set and announcements on expected future economic development. According to Premier Li Qiang, China's GDP growth target is “around 5.0%”. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Mar-24 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Asia caustic soda market could be underpinned by snug supply, limited vessel space By Jonathan Chou 13-Mar-24 15:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's liquid caustic soda spot supply may remain snug in the near term, while demand could continue its gradual growth into the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. PODCAST: China Group III base oils market sees supply, demand changes By Whitney Shi 12-Mar-24 15:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS Senior Industry Analyst Whitney Shi and ICIS Assistant Industry Analyst Jady Ma talk about supply and demand changes in China’s Group III base oils market. Saudi Aramco '23 profit falls on softer crude; ’24 focus on downstream growth By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Mar-24 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2023 fell by 24.7% to Saudi riyal (SR) 454.8bn ($121.3bn), weighed by weaker crude oil prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins.

18-Mar-2024

US Trinseo seeks to sell stake in AmSty

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Trinseo has started the process to sell its 50% stake in Americas Styrenics (AmSty), the US-based engineered materials producer said on Wednesday. AmSty makes styrene and polystyrene (PS). The company has initiated the ownership provision in the joint venture agreement. That provision includes a structured mechanism that will lead to the sale of Trinseo's stake in AmSty. "We have a clear pathway to divest our interest in the joint venture," said Frank Bozich, CEO. "We expect the exit process to lead to a definitive arrangement no later than early 2025." Trinseo did not name any prospective buyers or how much money it could make on the deal. Trinseo will spend the proceeds of the sale on paying down $1.077 billion in recently issued term loans. Those loans mature in 2028. Chevron Phillips Chemical owns the remaining stake in AmSty. Trinseo is also trying to sell its wholly owned styrenics assets, with a focus on marketing individual plants and regional businesses. Trinseo's other businesses include Latex Binders, Base Plastics and Engineered Materials. Thumbnail shows a cup made of polystyrene. Image by ICIS.

13-Mar-2024

INTERVIEW: German biofuels producer Verbio develops ethenolysis-based renewable chemicals project

LONDON (ICIS)–German biofuels producer Verbio is pushing into renewable chemicals with a €80 million -100 million commercial-scale ethenolysis project that will use rapeseed-based biodiesel to produce specialty chemicals. Strategic move to renewable chemicals; 17,000 tonnes/year of 1-decene, 32,000 tonnes/year of methyl 9-decenoate, (9-DAME); Produced from renewable rapeseed methyl ester (RME), using ethenolysis and innovative metathesis catalysts. Ethenolysis is a chemical process in which terminal olefins are degraded. In chemical terms, it is a cross metathesis. The "VerBioChem" project, adjacent to Verbio’s bio-refinery at the Bitterfeld chemicals production hub in Saxony-Anhalt state, is expected to be commissioned in 2025, Andreas Kohl, the company's head of specialty chemicals and catalysts, told ICIS. Regular production at the "first-of-its-kind" commercial-scale ethenolysis  plant should start in 2026, he said. Groundbreaking is scheduled for May. “To our knowledge, it will be the only plant worldwide to operate an ethenolysis process,” he said. 1-decene is mainly used to produce polyalphaolefins (PAO), which are used as group IV lubricants, Kohl said. The 1-decene market is estimated at about 500,000-700,000 tonnes/year, according to Kohl.  Producers of fossil-based 1-decene include INEOS, ExxonMobil, and Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem), among others. 9-DAME has applications in surfactants, lubricants, polymers and other specialty markets. While 9-DAME is currently not available on the market in larger quantities, Verbio sees it as a “platform molecule” for use in solvents, surfactants and lubricants, Kohl said. The Bitterfeld plant might also produce C18 diacids in various forms in the medium term, he said. Verbio has been in contact for a couple of years with partners and on request supplies customers with kilogram samples of 1-decene and 9-DAME from a pilot plant, he added. UNIQUE CATALYSTSThe company has developed a unique in-house process for ethenolysis, based on proprietary metathesis catalysts from its 100%-owned subsidiary, XiMo, Kohl said. The process allows the use of ethylene “as kind of a scissor” to split the biodiesel, he said. XiMo specializes in metathesis catalysts, specifically of "Schrock-type" tungsten, molybdenum and ruthenium complexes, he said. Richard Schrock, one of the founders of XiMo, was co-winner of the 2005 Nobel Prize in chemistry for his work on developing the olefin metathesis method in organic synthesis. To serve the ethenolysis plant’s captive needs, as well as the wider chemical industry, XiMo is investing in new capacity close to Budapest, Hungary The 10 tonne/year of metathesis catalyst project in Hungary, which will proceed parallel with the ethenolysis project in Bitterfeld, is due to be in production in 2026. XiMo’s metathesis catalysts “represents a new tool for the chemical industry", for use in industrial processes in the renewable, polymer, flavors and fragrances, agrochemicals and various other markets, Kohl said. STRATEGIC SHIFT TO CHEMICALS Verbio's biofuels are mainly sold into the energy market, “but this is not necessarily the future for us”, Kohl said. While the company has existing biodiesel-linked chemicals production (phytosterol and glycerin), it decided several years ago to expand in renewable chemicals in a bigger way – driven by an ambition to add more value to biodiesel, reduce Verbio's dependence on the biofuels energy market, and help "defossilize" the chemical industry, he said. “We want to become much more independent of the political decisions that are influencing the biofuels market, and chemicals will be a major part of the company in the future,” Kohl said. Although the chemical industry keeps working to reduce its carbon footprint, most of its products are based on carbon and will continue to be so, he said. The challenge, therefore, is to defossilize the industry, which means getting away from fossil-based carbon, leaving three main sources of carbon: carbon capture; recycling; and biomass, Kohl said. “Biomass is a very versatile, a very interesting source of carbon, and it is here today” as companies are already producing chemicals from biomass, he said. Verbio, with its expertise in biomass, is well positioned to expand in renewable chemicals, he said. With the ethenenolysis plant, Verbio will start to serve the chemical industry “with unique, renewable and biobased molecules with a low CO2 footprint”, Kohl said. “This will enable our customers to take a big step towards climate neutrality, saving CO2, attacking scope three emissions, and it will help to defossilize the chemical industry,” he said. The carbon footprint of the new ethenolysis plant will be “at least” about 70-80% lower than that of a fossil-based 1-decene plant, he said. Verbio is undertaking the project’s basic engineering and execution in-house, rather than contracting it out, he noted. FOOD VERSUS CHEMICALS Rapeseed (known as canola in North America) is readily available in Germany as it is part of crop rotation, Kohl said. While using rapeseed for chemical production could trigger debates similar to the “food versus fuels” controversy, it is important to realize that only about 40% of the mass of rapeseed is oils, he said. The remaining 60% is a protein-sugar fraction that is needed in cattle feed “to close the protein gap” and thus supports the food sector. If Germany did not have the rapeseed protein, it would have to import even more soya from South America, he said. He also noted that the use of biomass to make biofuels and other renewable products has been found to stabilize the overall agricultural market in Europe and provide farmers with sustainable income, thus keeping them in business. Verbio at a glance: Sales for the 12 months ended 30 June 2023: €1.97 billion. Employees: about 1,200. Operations in Germany, Poland, Hungary, India, US and Canada. Production of biodiesel and bioethanol: nearly 930,000 tonnes. Production of biomethane: 1.08 GWH. Existing chemical production: phytosterol and biodiesel glycerol (glycerin) CEO: Claus Sauter Headquarters: Zorbig, near Leipzig, Germany Source: Verbio Thumbnail photo source: Verbio Interview article by StefanBaumgarten.

13-Mar-2024

BLOG: China PX net annual average imports may fall to 700,000 tonnes in 2024-2030

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Only a few people thought that China would reach self-sufficiency in purified terephthalic acid (PTA). I was among the few. Now China is a major PTA exporter. This followed China swinging from being the world’s biggest net importer of polyester fibres and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resins (bottle and film grade) to being the biggest net exporter. Paraxylene (PX) could be the next shoe to drop as today’s post discusses. Given China’s total domination of global PX net imports – and the concentration of major PX exports in just a small number of countries and companies – the potential disruption to the global business is huge. The ICIS Base Case assumes China’s PX demand growth will average 1% per annum in 2024-2030 with the local operating rate at 82%. Such an outcome would lead to China’s net PX imports at annual average of 7.4m tonnes in 2024-2030. This would compare with 2023 net imports of 9.1m tonnes. Downside Scenario 1 sees demand growth the same as in the base case. But under Downside Scenario 1, I raise the local operating rate to 88%, the same as the 1993-2023 average. I also add 6.2m tonnes/year to China’s capacity, which comprises unconfirmed plants in our database. Downside 1 would result in net imports dropping to a 2024-2030 annual average of just 1.5m tonnes/year. Downside Scenario 2 again sees demand growth the same as in the base case, an operating rate of 90% and 6.2m tonnes/year of unconfirmed capacity Net imports would fall to an annual average of just 700,000 tonnes a year. As an important 26 February 2024 Financial Times article explores, China continues to build free-trade agreements with Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and non-BRI member countries as a hedge against growing geopolitical differences with the West. We could thus see a significant shift in trading patterns as more Chinese apparel and non-apparel production moves offshore to these countries, with the overseas plants fed by China-made polyester fibres. China could thus maintain its dominance of the global polyester value chain via this offshoring process, thereby compensating for its rising labour costs. Offshoring to the developing world may also enable China to make up for any lost exports of finished polyester-products to the West due to increased trade tensions. This shift in downstream investments and trade flows could provide economic justification for just about complete PX and mono-ethylene glycols (MEG) self-sufficiency, which will be the subject of a future post. These are the only two missing pieces in China’s polyester jigsaw puzzle. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

13-Mar-2024

Asia, Mideast petrochemical trades to slow down during Ramadan

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Trades for several petrochemicals in Asia and the Middle East will slow down as markets observe Ramadan starting 10 March, with demand going into a lull amid shorter working hours during the Muslim fasting month. Converters hold ample inventory GCC demand for PP to rebound after Eid ul-Fitr Gaza conflict dampens EastMed market, outlook uncertain Most markets continue to struggle with poor demand as well as high cost amid geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and Europe. From 10 March, businesses in many Muslim-majority countries will operate on reduced hours, potentially affecting production and logistics, with significant business decisions likely to be postponed. INDONESIA IMPORT QUOTA FURTHER DAMPENS SENTIMENT In Indonesia – the world’s most populous Muslim nation and the second largest polyethylene (PE) consumer in southeast Asia after Vietnam – the seasonal slowdown in demand is exacerbated by uncertainties over the government’s import quota regulations. Industry players were recently informed by Indonesia’s trade ministry that most PE and PP grades would be exempted, but some worry that this could still change before the import quotas take effect on 10 March. Many converters are currently sitting on high stocks of PE, having boosted imports in the weeks after the government announced the new rules in December, before details were fleshed out. A few of them are now willing to re-enter the import market to order new supplies. “My customers have stopped talking to me for now. It’s both Ramadan and the import quota issue," said a PE supplier. "I feel that while prices have not really dropped … the demand has clearly slowed. Most buyers have already bought enough, and they are not willing to risk buying more,” the supplier said. “Ramadan and Lebaran (Eid ul-Fitr) are slow periods of demand,” he added. Eid ul-Fitr is a Muslim festival marking the end of Ramadan. In the upstream ethylene market in southeast Asia, inquiries from Indonesia have picked up since late February as buyers stock up for April and wanted to wrap up negotiations before Ramadan. Ethylene prices have increased because of tight supply amid operating issues at Chandra Asri’s cracker as well as limited supply coming from the Middle East. MIDEAST TENSIONS WEIGH ON TRADES Demand for both PE and PP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is expected to improve after Eid ul-Fitr, as buyers restock after Ramadan's lull. In the East Mediterranean market, sentiment is likely to remain weak amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The war, now on its eighth month, and the weak economies of Lebanon and Jordan have dampened activity in both the PE and PP markets. Market conditions may not improve if a resolution to the war cannot be found soon. Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war on 7 October, sentiment was dampened throughout the region, with buyers in Jordan and Lebanon adopting a wait-and-see approach on markets. Hopes of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire ahead of Ramadan are fading following reports of more than 100 deaths of people waiting in a food aid line in Gaza. More than 100 people were killed on 29 February after Israeli troops fired on a large crowd of Palestinians racing to pull food off an aid convoy late last month, bringing the death toll since the start of the Israel-Hamas war to over 30,000, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. A continuation of hostilities beyond the start of Ramadan is now highly likely as several key issues remain unresolved. This could inflame tensions in the region significantly, with attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militants on shipping in the Red Sea likely to escalate. In toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) markets, GCC trades recently accelerated as some customers looked to stock up on volumes following recent spikes in costs of feedstock benzene and toluene in Asia. Some northeast Asian isocyanates producers announced sharp price increases in southeast Asia, which also impacted their volume allocations to other regions like the Middle East. In March and April, when supply for both TDI and PMDI is expected to be tight to normal due to some turnarounds in Asia, demand from GCC countries will likely slow down. Most businesses in the Middle East work fewer hours during Ramadan, which will impact overall activity. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Additional reporting by Josh Quah, Izham Ahmad and Damini Dabholkar Thumbnail image: Welcoming Ramadhan 2024, Medan, Indonesia – 27 February 2024 (Sutanta Aditya/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

08-Mar-2024

BLOG: Why China’s HDPE net imports could average just 700,000 tonnes per year in 2024-2030

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. The global petrochemicals industry must prepare for the possibility that China is close to self-sufficiency in high-density polyethylene (HDPE), low-density PE (LDPE), linear-low density PE (LLDPE), polypropylene (PP), paraxylene (PX) and mono-ethylene glycols (MEG) by 2030. As I work through the products, see today’s post on HDPE where I present the following three scenarios: The ICIS Base Case: An average China HDPE operating rate of 72% in 2024-2030 and average demand growth of 3%. This would lead to net imports averaging 7.6m tonnes a year. Downside Scenario 1: An average 82% operating rate, an additional 5.2m tonnes/year of unconfirmed capacity comes on-stream, and 3% average demand growth. Annual average net imports total 3.8m tonnes. Downside Scenario 2: An average 88% operating rate, an additional 5.2m tonnes/year of unconfirmed capacity comes on-stream, and 1.5% average demand growth. Annual average net imports total just 700,000 tonnes. Why do I see these alternative outcomes as possible? As regards operating rates you can argue that China’s new HDPE capacity will be super-efficient in terms of scale and upstream integration, including perhaps advantaged supplies of crude into refineries. There is a potential “win-win” here. The oil-to-petrochemicals majors, especially Saudi Aramco, are keen to underpin crude production levels given the threats to long-term global crude demand from sustainability. China is the world’s biggest crude importer. Petrochemical operating rates in China have historically been a political as well as an economic decision. China made the decision in 2014 to push towards complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency. Our base case demand growth estimate of 3% per annum between 2024 and 2030 is perfectly reasonable and well thought-out, as it reflects the big turn of events since the “Evergrande moment” in late 2021. Growth of 3% would be hugely down from the 12% average annual growth between 1992 and 2023 during the Petrochemicals Supercycle, which was mainly driven by China. I have therefore stuck with 3% demand growth in Downside Scenario 1 while raising the operating rate to 82% for the reasons described above. But I believe we need to go further to achieve proper scenario planning. Downside Scenario 2 takes demand growth down to 1.5% and raises the operating rate to 88% – the same as the actual operating rate in 1992-2023. If Downside 2 were to happen, HDPE pricing markets would be upended. No longer would landed-China prices be as relevant as China’s import volumes would be much lower than they are today. Demand patterns in and trade flows to the world’s remaining net import regions and countries – Europe, Turkey, Africa, South & Central America, Asia and Pacific and the Former Soviet Union – would become much more important. In short, the petrochemicals world would be turned on its head. Are you prepared for all the eventualities? Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

08-Mar-2024

Lotte Chemical mulls 'strategic measures' for Malaysian-listed LC Titan

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean producer Lotte Chemical said on Thursday that it is exploring options for its Malaysian subsidiary, in response to local media reports that the unit is up for sale. "We are considering various strategic measures related to LC Titan [Lotte Chemical Titan] which is our subsidiary, but nothing has been decided so far," Lotte Chemical chief financial officer Seong Nak-sun said in a stock exchange filing. "We will re-announce the details within a month or when they are decided in the future," Seong added. Lotte Chemical and LC Titan could not be immediately reached for further comments on the potential sale. At 05:30 GMT, shares of the two listed companies were trading lower, with Lotte Chemical down 1.63% in Seoul, and LC Titan down 1.72% in Kuala Lumpur. According to media reports on Thursday, Lotte Chemical has already initiated the process of selling LC Titan, citing unnamed sources. "We're actively reviewing ways to optimize our portfolio, which includes considering the potential sale of LC Titan. However, a definitive decision has not yet been reached," an unnamed Lotte Chemical official was quoted by The Korea Economic Daily (KED) as saying. Lotte Chemical is approaching both domestic and international companies, along with private equity firms through investment banks, to be potential buyers for its Malaysian arm, KED reported. The Korean producer is planning to sell all outstanding shares of LC Titan traded on the Malaysian stock market, which is equivalent to 74.7% of the company, valuing the firm at around $550m based on current market capitalization, it added. LC Titan has incurred a second year of net loss, which widened to Malaysian ringgit (M$) 780.3m in 2023 as sales declined by 24% to M$7.65bn. Malaysia's LC Titan full-year financial results in thousand ringgit (M$) FY2023 FY2022 % change Sales           7,646,170         10,019,083 -23.7 Loss from operations           (868,001)         (1,041,451) -16.7 Net profit            (780,286)            (731,061) 6.7 Meanwhile, parent firm Lotte Chemical swung into a net loss last year. S Korea's Lotte Chemical full-year financial results in billion S Korean won (W) 2023 2022 % Change Sales 19,949 22,276 -10.4 EBITDA 839 185 353.5 Operating profit -333 -763 Net income -301 28 In the notes accompanying its financial results released on 7 February, Lotte Chemical had stated that that it “will pursue advancement and improvements to the business portfolio in order to actively respond to changes in the business environment of the petrochemical industry and improve profitability through efficient management of existing petrochemical businesses”. “The weak market conditions of the petrochemical industry are ongoing due to reduced demand and dropping product prices resulting from global uncertainties, as well as increased supply burdens caused by large-scale ethylene plant expansions in China,” it said. The acquisition of Malaysian company Titan Chemicals in 2010 was the Korean firm’s first foray into southeast Asia. The acquired company was rebranded Lotte Chemical Titan, and in 2017, was listed on the Malaysian bourse. LC Titan operates 12 plants at two sites in Johor, Malaysia; and holds a 40% stake in LOTTE Chemical USA based in Houston, Texas. In Indonesia, the company operates polyethylene plants, and in Q1 2022,  started construction of LOTTE Chemical Indonesia New Ethylene (LINE) Project, which will increase production capacity in Cilegon by 65% to 5.88m tonnes/year. The project is expected to produce 1m tonnes/year of ethylene; 520,000 tonnes/year of propylene; 250,000 tonnes/year of polypropylene (PP); and 140,000 tonnes/year of butadiene (BD). It is scheduled to be completed in 2025. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman ($1 = M$4.71; $1 = W1,330) Thumbnail image: A Lotte Chemical Titan plant in Pasir Gudang, Malaysia (Source: Lotte Chemical Titan)

07-Mar-2024

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