Chemicals

LONDON (ICIS)–After two years of decline, Germany’s GDP could start growing again in 2025, economic research institutes said on Thursday. Although the trade and tariff conflicts are still weighing on export demand, billions of euros of planned government spending on infrastructure and defense would start supporting growth, they said. “Leading indicators support our view that, after two years of contraction, the industrial sector has reached the trough, albeit at a low level,” said Stefan Kooths, head of forecasting at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel). The recovery would be largely driven by domestic factors, with private consumption and corporate investment picking up after a two-year drought, he said. IfW Kiel noted that “significantly greater fiscal room” for the new federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz should help drive growth. Germany recently amended its constitution to enable more debt-financed spending. IfW Kiel revised its GDP growth forecast for Europe’s largest economy to 0.3% for 2025, from its previous expectation of zero growth, and for 2026 it expects GDP growth of 1.6%. However, it warned that the “erratic” US tariff policy was fueling uncertainty for Germany’s foreign trade. In addition, German exporters were hampered by “significantly reduced competitiveness”, it said. Another institute, ifo Munich, now forecasts 0.3% GDP growth in 2025, up from its earlier 0.2% projection, and it predicts 1.5% growth for 2026, up from its previous 0.8% assessment. After reaching its low point in the winter, Germany’s economy is now set for a “growth spurt”, partly driven by the government fiscal measures, ifo said. However, like IfW Kiel, ifo warned of the risks posed by US trade policies. The US import tariffs already imposed – and assuming they remain at the current level – would impact Germany’s economic growth by 0.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026, ifo said. If a US-EU trade agreement is reached, growth in Germany could be higher, whereas an escalation could lead to a renewed recession, ifo said. A third institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), said if the US does not escalate its trade conflicts further, Germany’s GDP could grow by 0.4% in 2025, up from IWH’s previous 0.1% growth forecast. IWH also noted that the slow licensing for exports of rare earths from China has led to a shortage that is threatening production in parts of Germany’s manufacturing industry. In Germany’s chemical industry, producers’ trade group VCI currently expects chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) to fall by 2.0% this year. Please also visit US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (Source: Christian Democratic Union party)

12-Jun-2025

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado (ICIS)–Chemical companies can find more ways to grow profits beyond cost cutting as they enter another year of slow economic growth in the longest downturn in years. Early in 2025, chemical companies lost faith that economic growth will be strong enough to contribute to profit growth, and that drought could extend into 2026. A five-year global chemical buyer value study conducted by the consultancy Accenture shows areas where chemical companies can wring value out of their operations that go beyond cost-cutting. The study was conducted in December 2024-February 2025. Cost cutting is not off the table. The study found that chemical companies have overestimated their customers' preferences for some products and services. MULTI-YEAR DOWNTURNThe downturn in the chemical industry started about three years ago after consumers stopped splurging on big-ticket items following the pandemic. Higher inflation caused interest rates to increased, which raised house prices and depressed demand for plastics and chemicals used in construction. Consumers moved less because they could not afford new or existing houses, so that lowered demand for durable goods like furniture and appliances. The war between Russia and Ukraine caused a surge in energy costs. In Europe energy prices never returned to levels before the conflict. Higher costs lowered demand and contributed to de-industrialization in Europe. This year, tariffs and uncertain trade policy from the US have made companies and consumers more reluctant to purchase goods and make investments. The performance of US-listed shares of chemical companies illustrates how difficult these past few years have been for the industry. The following lists Wednesday’s closing prices for the US listed companies followed by ICIS and their 52-week highs. Figures are in dollars/share. Company Price 52 Week High AdvanSix 24.81 33.00 Avient 36.06 54.68 Axalta 30.29 41.66 Braskem 3.75 7.71 Chemours 11.87 25.80 Celanese 58.19 150.31 DuPont 69.40 90.06 Dow 30.68 57.22 Eastman 80.04 114.50 HB Fuller 56.58 87.67 Huntsman 12.04 25.12 Kronos 6.73 14.37 LyondellBasell 61.12 100.46 Methanex 35.05 54.49 NewMarket 667.15 667.15 Olin 21.80 52.17 PPG 113.01 137.24 RPM 115.11 141.79 Stepan 56.53 94.77 Sherwin-Williams 357.13 400.42 Tronox 6.01 20.29 Trinseo 3.39 7.05 Westlake 80.19 156.64 For now, a recession is not in the outlook, but neither is a strong recovery. ICIS expects that US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024. Growth in 2026 could be 1.7%. The country has a 34% chance of slipping into a recession in the next 12 months. HOW TO GROW IN A SLOW GROWTH WORLDChemical companies don't have to wait for the recovery to increase profits, according to the chemical buyer study from Accenture. It found that 36% of chemical customers are willing to pay 5% or more above market price if their needs are fully met, and 43% are willing to buy 10% or more if all of their product and service needs are met, the study said. Chemical companies can increase revenue if they know where to look. The following table shows the top 10 customer needs for 2025, according to the Accenture study. Product Performance Reliable Delivery Quality Technical Support Product Consistency Data Privacy & Cybersecurity Secure & Seamless Transactions Trust Product Innovation Brand Strength Product Offerings Source: Accenture Making high-quality molecules will always be a priority, but chemical companies can do a better job of meeting their customers' needs by targeting services, Accenture said. Many underestimated needs cited by customers centered around services. The following table lists the top 10 services valued by chemical customers. Reliable delivery Quality technical support Data privacy and cybersecurity Secure and seamless transactions 24/7 access Order flexibility Complaint resolution Easy access to product info. & regulatory support E-commerce Comprehensive product support & expert guidance Source: Accenture New technologies are opening more opportunities for chemical companies to stand out by improving their services. Accenture mentioned the following: AI-based transport management solutions E-commerce platforms for seamless transactions Web portals and large language model-supported platforms for 24/7 access. CUSTOMER NEEDS HAVE EVOLVED SINCE 2020Chemical companies can extract more value by updating their priorities to keep up with the changing demands from their customers. The following table lists the top five needs that customers are underestimated by chemical companies. It compares those needs with Accenture's list from 2020. 2025 2020 24/7 access Packaging customization Reliable delivery Reliable delivery Product consistency Water conservation Environmental health & safety compliance Complaint resolution Product innovation Digital interfaces & experiences/chatbots Source: Accenture HOW TO CUT THE RIGHT COSTSCompanies may still have some fat they can cut, based on the Accenture study. It showed a gap between what customers want and what chemical companies think they want. The following lists the top five overestimated needs by chemical companies in 2025 and compares them with those in 2020. 2025 2020 Renewable-based products Value-added services Market intelligence Product consistency Product customization Quality technical support Value-added services Product sampling/trails Local/regional supply source Recyclable products Source: Accenture Renewable-based products, which also covers recycled materials, can demand a premium, but it may fall short of what producers need to generate a profit. While 74% of chemical customers are willing to pay more for sustainable products, only 38% are willing to pay a premium of more than 5%, according to Accenture. Only 13% are willing to pay a premium of at least 15%. That is short of the premium of 20% that is likely to be needed to produce sustainable products. HOW CAN CHEMICAL COMPANIES GET ON THE SAME PAGE AS THEIR CUSTOMERSChemical companies have a tendency to focus on innovation even when it does not align with their customers' needs, because that is the nature of a science-based industry, said Denise Dignam, CEO of Chemours, a US-based producer of pigment and fluoromaterials. She spoke on a panel that discussed the findings of Accenture's study during the annual meeting held by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). “We are scientists. We like innovation," she said. Chemical companies need to be mindful that customers value mundane but critical services like supply chain logistics. One strategy to keep customer needs front and center is to rely on front-line sales people, said Alastair Port, executive president of Indorama Ventures: Indovinya. Port cautioned against relying too heavily on point-of-time surveys. Someone who fills out those surveys is providing feedback that is tied to one moment in time. It does not encompass overall satisfaction with the company's products and services. Ed Sparks, CEO of catalyst producer WR Grace, said technical resources and sales people are the best resources for gauging the actual needs of customers. Their collect data from their interactions with customers, convert it into information that can then become market intelligence. Companies that produce commodity chemicals can find ways to stand out even when their products vary little from their competitors, Port said. Buyers of commodity chemicals vary greatly in size. Smaller ones may not have innovation departments or elaborate purchasing departments. Commodity chemical producers can tailor their services to match the needs of their varied customers. Chemical producers can replicate molecules, but they cannot replicate service, Sparks said. WR Grace's refining catalyst business has a prominent service component, under which the company helps refiners optimize their operations. “That service component is really hard to replicate,” Sparks said. The ACC Annual Meeting ended on 4 June. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows money. Image by ICIS.

12-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–UK GDP fell in April following growth the previous month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced on Thursday. Monthly GDP fell by 0.3%, following a 0.2% rise in March, although rose by 0.7% in the three months to April, compared with the three months to January. This followed 0.7% growth in the first quarter. Both the fall in output for April and the wider trend of growth were driven by activity in the services sector, falling 0.4% on the previous month, but rising by 0.6% over the three-month period. Overall production fell by 0.6% in April, driven by a decline in manufacturing, but also rose by 1.1% in the three months to April. This was reflected in output for the chemicals industry, which tracked a 0.13 percentage point (pp) decline for the month, but rose by 0.11pps over the past three months. In contrast, production of rubber and plastics products rose by 0.04pps for both periods. Sentiment has been clouded in the second quarter, due to the possibility of tariffs rolled out from the US. In the wake of US president Donald Trump’s Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, the UK has managed to secure a trade deal with the US, the EU, and other trading partners. The impact of new terms has not yet been felt in the market, and wider global macroeconomic conditions remain unclear.

12-Jun-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Researchers at Colorado State University’s Weather and Climate Research department maintained their prediction of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with a probability that 33% of major storms could make landfall in the US Gulf. The CSU team predicts 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on 1 June and runs through 30 November. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher. Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, numbered from 1 to 5, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speeds, with a Category 5 storm being the strongest. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category Wind speed 1 74-95 miles/hour 2 96-110 miles/hour 3 111-129 miles/hour 4 130-156 miles/hour 5 157+ miles/hour While still very early in the season, researchers said it is showing characteristics as seen in 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021. In 1996, there were six major hurricanes, which was the most since 1950, but none entered the US Gulf. In 1999, five storms reached Category 4, with none threatening the US Gulf. Storms in both years made landfall on the US East Coast in North Carolina. Hurricane Ike, one of five major hurricanes in 2008, made landfall in Galveston near the entrance to the Houston Ship Channel, causing chemical plants and refineries in the region to struggle to restart. Hurricane Irene was the only hurricane to make landfall in 2011, striking near Cape Lookout, North Carolina. It was one of seven hurricanes that season, of which four became major hurricanes. In 2021, there were 21 named storms with seven becoming hurricanes, four of which were major storms and several entered the US Gulf. Hurricane Ida was the most destructive, making landfall in Louisiana and leading to many plant shutdowns. The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025: 51% for the entire US coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%) 26% for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%) 33% for the US Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%) 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47% Hurricanes directly affect the chemical industry because plants and refineries shut down in preparation for the storms, and they sometimes remain down because of damage. Power outages can last for days or weeks. Hurricanes shut down ports, railroads and highways, which can prevent operating plants from receiving feedstock or shipping out products. Most US petrochemical plants and refineries are on the Gulf Coast states of Texas and Louisiana, making them prone to hurricanes. Other plants and refineries are scattered farther east in the states of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida – a peninsula that is also a hub for phosphate production and fertilizer logistics. Additional reporting by Al Greenwood

11-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADNOC L&S) on Wednesday said that it has entered into a $531-million strategic partnership with polyolefins major Borouge to boost UAE’s production and export of petrochemicals. As part of the partnership, Borouge has awarded ADNOC L&S a 15-year contract to manage logistics on up to 70% of its annual production, "which will increase significantly following the completion of the Borouge 4 plant expansion", ADNOC L&S said in a filing on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). ADNOC L&S is a unit of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), which holds a 54% stake in Borouge. Borouge operates an integrated polyolefin complex at Al Ruwais Industrial City in Abu Dhabi. "As Borouge plans to ramp up production capacity by 1.4 million tonnes/year by the end of 2026 through its Borouge 4 mega project, Borouge will become the world’s largest single-site polyolefin complex," it said. The agreement covers port management, container handling, and feeder container ship services for the Borouge container terminal in Al Ruwais Industrial City. ADNOC L&S will deploy a minimum of two dedicated container feeder ships to transport Borouge’s products from Al Ruwais to the deepwater ports of Jebel Ali in Dubai and Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi. "The mutually beneficial service agreement will deliver a minimum guaranteed value of $531m, supporting the next phase of Borouge’s accelerated growth plans, driving operational cost savings over the full contract term," it said. The deal could lead to more than $50 million in cost savings and efficiencies for Borouge in the first five years alone enhancing the company’s supply chain network, the company added. ADNOC L&S’ integrated logistics capabilities include managing container terminal operations, feeder services, and logistics solutions to meet increasing global demand. Borouge is involved in an upcoming merger with Austria's Borealis and Canadian producer Nova Chemicals which is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026.

11-Jun-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Arrivals of container ships fell in May at the US West Coast ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB) amid a trade war between the US and China but has shown a slight uptick in June while the two nations continue to negotiate a trade deal. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said the ports of LA/LB, said May container ship arrivals were at 5.0/day, slightly below the 5.7/day that was the average prior to the pandemic. Through the first five days of June, arrivals are at 5.6/day, which is still slightly below the pre-pandemic norm. Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to surge in the near term amid a pause in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates as shown in the following chart. NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said this is the busiest time of the year for US retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs,” Gold said. “They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.” Gold said many retailers suspended or canceled orders after US President Donald Trump announced a 145% tariff on China in April but have resumed imports after tariffs were reduced to 30% and a 90-day pause that will last until 12 August was announced. The higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations have also been paused until 9 July as the administration negotiates with those countries. ASIA-US RATES SURGE Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US have spiked over the past couple of weeks – and have almost doubled over the past four weeks – as demand has surged ahead of the possible reinstatement of tariffs while capacity remains tight. Rates from supply chain advisors showed drastic increases over the past two weeks, and weekly rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos came out today with Asia-USWC rates at $5,488/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) and at $6,410/FEU to the East Coast. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

10-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Verbio’s ethenolysis plant under construction in Germany is expected to start up in 2026, a company official told ICIS. The plant will produce renewable chemicals based on rapeseed oil methyl ester. “The distillation columns are in, all the big-ticket items have been installed,” Marc Siegel, Verbio’s head of sales, Specialty Chemicals and Catalysts, said in an interview. While there were some delays, the project at the Bitterfeld chemicals park in Saxony-Anhalt state remains on budget, he said. Capacities: – 32,000 tonnes/year of methyl 9-decenoate (9-DAME) – 17,000 tonnes/year of 1-decene. Project cost: €80-100 million. Startup: early 2026 “We are seeing a lot of interest in the materials,” Siegel said. 9-DAME has applications in surfactants, lubricants, solvents, polymers and others while 1-decene is a precursor for lubricants, coating agents, surfactants, polymers and others. Siegel also noted an opportunity to convert 9-DAME, which is similar to C10 fatty acid methyl ester, into a C10 fatty acid or alcohol, replacing palm kernel oil (PKO). Customers would thus avoid the complex supply chains of PKO, and its price fluctuations. More important, however, they would reduce their carbon footprint, and they could put palm-free and GMO-free labels on their shampoos and other products, he said. Nongovernment organizations have created a lot of pressure against palm oil because of the environmental impacts of palm oil plantations, he noted. A NEW CHEMICAL INDUSTRY “Customers see the value of these renewable chemicals”, he said, adding that many companies have strong decarbonization targets. While Germany’s chemical industry was currently in crisis, renewable chemicals was its opportunity, he said. “All the companies are hurting now, but once we rebound, there will be a new chemical industry, otherwise we will end up as an industrial museum,” he said. “Sustainability is the way to go, chemical companies need to reinvent themselves in the things they do,” he said. For Verbio, the ethenolysis project is part of its strategy to reduce its reliance on biofuels, Siegel said. Biofuels is a heavily regulated market that leaves producers exposed to political decisions, he said and noted the changes in policies under the current US administration. The diversification into renewable chemicals will give Verbio additional mainstays outside the transport sector, he said. While Verbio plans to focus on producing and supplying the two renewable chemicals – 9-DAME and 1-decene – it does not intend to get involved in making downstream products, he added. Interview article by Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail photo of Verbio’s ethenolysis plant under construction at Bitterfeld, Germany. Source: Verbio

10-Jun-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s trade union representing auditors at the Federal Revenue service, which are some of the best-paid civil servants in the country, accepted late on Monday the court’s ruling ordering the end of their nearly seven-month strike, said Sindifisco. Ruling ends what most Brazilians just saw as state-fueled privilege Striking workers average salary: $5,000/month; Brazil’s median: $400-500/month The strike had started affecting the state’s tax collection While the judge’s ruling ordering the end of the strike was published over the weekend, as of Monday morning Sindifisco maintained it had not been officially notified yet. In a written response to ICIS late on Monday, the union said it had been notified and in compliance with the “democratic state of law” it would accept the ruling, but did not disclose any details about more industrial action for coming weeks. The ruling put an end to one of the longest strikes by civil servants in Brazil, started in November, and a case which has showed some of Brazil’s wrongs – civil servants paid multiple times more than the average Brazilian, complaining about the lack of salary increases. The Federal Revenue auditors have mostly fought this battle alone, and along the way they did not gain any new friends. For the government, the ruling puts an end to a dispute which was becoming increasingly negative for the economy – goods piling up in customs points across Brazil’s vast geography – as well as the state’s ability to collect the taxes due on imports and exports. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said in parliament in May that the strike was partly to blame for the lower-than-expected tax proceeds for 2025. The pressure was building up while Sindifisco was becoming increasingly isolated in its battle. Chemicals and fertilizers players, as well as most industrial companies, will have breathed a sigh of relief over the weekend as their concerns about trade flows had for months been increasing. The hangover from such an extended period of industrial action is expected to be tedious and things will take months, rather than weeks, to normalize, most analysts think. TIPPING POINTAs their demands kept falling in deaf ears with the government, Sindifisco stepped up the pressure in early June, calling for an even stricter industrial action. It proved lethal for its demands. The cabinet quickly puts its lawyers to work and convinced a judge that the latest strike action was affecting essential services that the state is mandated to deliver, as well as tax receipts. To make sure Sindifisco came around quickly, the judge’s ruling set a daily fine of Brazilian reais (R) 500,000 ($90,100) in case of non-compliance by the union. “Sindifisco states that it was formally notified today [Monday 9 June] of the preliminary decision of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) granted by Judge Benedito Goncalves and, respecting the democratic rule of law, it will respect the ruling,” it said in its written statement late on Monday. “The essential activities carried out by the auditors will be protected, including the suspension of standard operations in customs units.” In his ruling, the judge specifically mentioned “standard operations”, which is nothing but a euphemism which means auditors do still go to work and in theory carry out their tasks, but they do so at a much slower rate, amounting practically to strike action as workloads pile up. Sindifisco said its legal affairs department is evaluating “all applicable legal measures” to discuss the court decision. However, it did not respond to questions about what its next strategy could be based on, considering they have exhausted practically all industrial actions possible, without succeeding in their demands. The union’s main demand is hefty increases in wages to recoup the losses in purchasing power accumulated since 2016, as they claim their wages have been increased only once since 2016. But even that clear and rather unfair circumstance has not moved public opinion, political parties or the cabinet to the striking workers' turf. The reason not difficult to find: their already very generous, taxpayers-funded wages. STATE-FUNDED PRIVILEGEA Federal Revenue auditor’s salary averages R28,000/month ($5,000/month), gross before taxes and social security contributions, according to the Brazilian branch of jobs site Glassdoor. That, in Brazil, is earned by less than 1% of the population. To make matters worse, those salaries are paid by all taxpayers, most of whom must endure low salaries and long days at work – or take on two jobs – to make ends meet. Wages for most Brazilians range between R1,518/month – the legal minimum wage, widely common in services jobs such as bars or shops – and around R3,000/month. The auditors' salaries, which can also be found in other high-ranking civil servant positions, represent for many Brazilians the centuries-old, state-funded privilege which tends to be concentrated among white Brazilians who come from high-income households and, almost certainly, went to the country's best universities. The 1950s idea of a new capital, Brasilia, which would be able to bring together a modernized and more inclusive version of all Brazils was a lovely idea on paper – which mostly stayed in the papers of idealists such as famous architect Oscar Niemeyer and his disciples. As the decades went by, old habits died hard, and Brasilia became a weird version – for good and bad – of the Brazil they were trying to change. Many of those Brasilia-based, well-paid civil servants have come to live in bubbles and are seen by most Brazilians as some sort of state-sponsored caste. No wonder the auditors’ plea… was never taken too seriously for most Brazilians or even considered just a bad joke. Opinion polls have been telling that story for months, but  Sindifisco seemed to fail to grasp the public’s mood and kept pushing. After the weekend’s ruling gave it the upper hand, the cabinet will be even less inclined to make any concessions now as it tries to rein in the fiscal deficit while keeping a good face in terms of welfare state spending, a difficult balance to start with. But any public opinion’s perception that the cabinet was giving in would have added to an extended belief about some civil servants: they have it better than most private sector employees, not least because their jobs, once they passed exams and obtain the qualifications, are practically secured until retirement. A generous state pension follows. EXPECTED COMPETITIVE ELECTIONBrazil will soon enter an unofficial, year-long electoral campaign as its nearly 160 million voters will be called to the polls to choose a president and renew parliament in October 2026. Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) and its governing coalition appear to have slim chances to revalidate their mandate as the PT’s core voters – low-income households – have greatly felt as of late the increase in basic items such as food, as a larger share of their spending goes to that. The government will not want to upset any potential voters by appearing to favor already privileged civil servants. The election could literally be decided by a few thousand votes, so any potential voter turning away would not be good news for the PT. To make things more confusing, the PT has yet to officially choose a presidential candidate as its hegemonic leader of the past three decades – Lula – keeps the incognita when enquired about it. And that is a rather strange circumstance, especially as the age of another President, that of US’ Joe Biden, became part of the public conversation after his debate debacle in June 2024. Be it because the Brazilian center-left has not been able to find a successor with the same appeal than Lula or be it because in Brazil’s idiosyncrasy blasting old age is considered rather rude, Lula’s age has not become part of the debate yet, at least to the same extent than it did in the US. Another strange circumstance as the signs of aging are evident for all to see. Biden was 81 during the debate. Lula would be 80 if he runs for re-election at the time of the poll but, if victorious, he would be sworn into office for a fourth term when he will have already turned 81. Front page picture source: Brazil's Federal Revenue press services Focus article by Jonathan Lopez

10-Jun-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Recent revisions of recycled content targets from major brands have led to questions about just how committed companies are to reducing their consumption of virgin plastic. But what are the underlying issues behind such decision? In this third episode of Sustainably Speaking, ICIS senior executive, business solutions group John Richardson is joined by Mark Victory and Matt Tudball, senior editors for recycling Europe, and Helen McGeough, global analyst team lead for plastic recycling at ICIS, to dive deeper into this topic. Key topics in the discussion include: Revised down recycled content targets do not mean lower recyclate demand The impact on current and future investment decisions for both mechanical and chemical recycling The importance of improving access to good-quality feedstocks The role of consumers and consumer pressure Spreads between packaging and non-packaging grades remain high, particularly for recycled polyolefins The impact of regulation on the US and European markets

10-Jun-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–As China steps up efforts to meet its dual carbon targets, hydrogen is becoming a practical and strategic tool to cut emissions from the country’s highly carbon-intensive cement industry. Cement industry under carbon pressure From hydrogen as substitute to carbon utilization for new value Five-year window open for low-carbon pilots Cement accounts for around 13-14% of China's total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, ranking it the third-largest industrial source after power and steel. Facing mounting pressure from both international carbon regulations and domestic policy, China can tap hydrogen as a promising route toward meaningful emissions reductions. China’s cement industry is estimated to have emitted about 1.20 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2023, down for a third straight year. Emissions stood at 1.23 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2020, when China’s cement clinker output peaked at 1.58 billion tonnes, and cement output hit 2.38 billion tonnes, according to China Building Materials Federation. Around 60% of this comes from the chemical reaction when limestone is heated to make clinker, a process that is difficult to change in the short term due to raw material constraints. Another 35% comes from fossil fuels combustion to generate heat for clinker production, which is a key substitution target. As of March 2025, China's national ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) expanded to include cement, alongside steel and aluminum, hence, the cement sector is also now fully exposed to carbon pricing. However, despite policy urgency, due to technical and equipment retrofitting complexities, the sector has moved slowly. The next five years will represent a pivotal window to scale pilot projects and validate decarbonization pathways. TWO ROUTES: CLEANER COMBUSTION & CARBON USE Hydrogen can help reduce emissions from cement mainly in two ways: fossil fuel substitution and carbon utilization. Fuel substitution with hydrogen is the immediate decarbonization leverage. Hydrogen can directly replace coal or gas in kilns. Its high calorific value and zero-carbon combustion profile make it an ideal fuel. However, because of its weak flame radiation and explosion risk, hydrogen is usually mixed with other fuels in current tests. European players lead the change: Cemex, a leading global building materials manufacturer, completed hydrogen retrofits at all its European cement plants by 2020, targeting a 5% CO2 reduction by 2030. Heidelberg Materials, another cement giant actively exploring hydrogen applications, achieved 100% net-zero fuel operation at its UK Ribblesdale plant in 2021, using a mix of 39% hydrogen, 12% meat and bone meal, and 49% glycerin. Another option is to combine CO2 capture from kiln exhausts with renewable hydrogen to synthesize e-methanol or e-methane. E-methanol and e-methane are synthetic fuels made by combining captured CO2 with renewable hydrogen using renewable electricity. LafargeHolcim, as one of the largest cement producers in the world, has multiple hydrogen decarbonisation projects across Europe. It is leading with its HyScale100 project in Germany, which aims to install electrolyzers at its Heide refinery, and combine electrolyzed hydrogen with CO2 from its Lägerdorf plant to produce e-methanol starting 2026. This model not only reduces emissions but also builds links across industries to create a circular carbon economy. CHINA: FROM POLICY PUSH TO PILOT PROJECTS Policy support is gaining momentum in China. The 2024 Special Action Plan for Cement Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction aims to raise alternative fuel use to 10% by 2025, explicitly naming hydrogen. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) sets out a 2030 goal to commercialize low-carbon kilns using hydrogen. Amid the decarbonization policy signals, China’s major cement producers are also stepping up: The Beijing Building Materials Academy of Scientific Research (BBMA) under Beijing Building Materials Group (BBMG) completed China’s first industrial trial in December 2024 using >70% hydrogen in calcination. Anhui Conch Cement Company used 5% hydrogen in pre-calciners, cutting 0.01 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of clinker, albeit with an added cost of yuan (CNY) 32.7/tonne. Tangshan Jidong Cement is building a full hydrogen supply chain in partnership with China National Chemical Engineering. Hydrogen is also being produced on-site using waste heat from clinker kilns to power electrolysis – a promising approach to localize supply and enhance energy efficiency. CHALLENGES STILL AHEAD Despite policy and pilot momentum, commercialization hydrogen use in China’s cement sector still faces barriers. Renewable hydrogen costs are too high for wide use. Studies suggest it would need to fall below $0.37/kg to be cost-effective in cement under carbon trading. Hydrogen is hard to store and transport, and its flame instability requires kiln retrofits and safety systems. China also lacks unified national technical standards for using hydrogen in cement, slowing adoption. Hydrogen may not yet be ready for mass rollout, but it is clearly part of the future of cement in China. As production costs fall, carbon markets grow, and hydrogen technologies mature, hydrogen could become a real driver of change in one of China’s hardest-to-decarbonize sectors. Insight article by Patricia Tao

10-Jun-2025