Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM)

Navigating volatility in this key commodity, with global data and insight 

Discover the factors influencing vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) markets

Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) is principally polymerised into polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Sudden spikes and dips in demand can often be seen in VCM markets, due to the variety of end-user applications for PVC. This volatility is a challenge to navigate without accurate forecasts.

VCM is a truly global market, so it is vital to stay close to activity in Europe, Asia and the US, keeping track of supply and demand factors, price fluctuations and contracts secured. We provide actionable data, insights and analytics on the multitude of factors impacting prices, deals and decisions on a daily basis.

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AFPM '24: INSIGHT: Biden ending term with regulatory bang for US chems

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The administration of US President Joe Biden is proposing a wave of regulations before its term ends in 2025, many of which will increase costs for chemical companies in the US and persist even if the nation elects a new president later this year. The prospect of such consequential policies comes as delegates head into this year's International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). Changes to the Clean Waters Act, the Risk Management Program (RMP) and the Hazard Communication Standard are among the most consequential policies being considered by US regulators. Electric vehicles (EVs) could receive more support from federal and state governments. This would increase demand for plastics used in EVs while discouraging refiners from making further investments, which could limit US production of benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (MX). The failure of Congress to re-authorize the nation's chemical site security program could spell its end. REGULATORY PUSH DURING ELECTION YEARSuch a regulatory push by the Biden administration was flagged last year by the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD), the new name for the National Association of Chemical Distributors (NACD). The group was not crying wolf. The next nine months could rank among the worst for the chemical industry in terms of regulatory change and potential issues, said Eric Byer, president of the ACD. "Whatever it's going to be, it will come done fairly aggressively." The Biden administration has proposed several consequential policies. For the Clean Water Act, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is developing new requirements, which will require chemical producers and other companies to develop plans to address the worst possible discharge from their plants. The ACD warned that the new requirement would raise compliance costs while doing little to reduce the already small number of discharges by plants. The final rule is scheduled to be published in April 2024. For the RMP, changes could require chemical companies to share information that has been off limits since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The concern is that the information will fall into the wrong hands, while significantly increasing costs to comply with the new requirements, according to the ACD. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is introducing changes to its Hazard Communication Standard that could create more burdens for companies. The ACD warned that some of the changes will increase costs without providing a commensurate improvement in safety. The EPA has started the multiyear process that, under the regulator's current whole-chemical approach, will lead to restrictions imposed on vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), acrylonitrile (ACN) and aniline, a chemical used to make methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). This is being done through the nation's main chemical safety program, known as the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). MORE POLICIES PROPOSED FOR EVsThe Biden administration is proposing additional polices to encourage the adoption of EVs. For chemical producers, more EVs would increase demand for plastics, resins and thermal management fluids that are designed to meet the material challenges of these automobiles. At the same time, the push towards EVs could limit sales of automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs), lowering demand for gasoline and diesel. Refiners could decide to shut down and repurpose their complexes if they expect demand for their main products will stop growing or decline. That would lower production of aromatics and other refinery chemicals and refined products. The Biden administration is moving on three fronts to encourage EV sales. The EPA is expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II), which would phase out the sale of ICE-based vehicles to 2035. If the EPA grants California's request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. The EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal would impose stricter standards on tail pipe emissions. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) is proposing stricter efficiency standards under its Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program. The AFPM opposes these measures. It said the EPA's light-duty vehicle proposal and DOT's new CAFE standards are so demanding, it would force automobile companies to produce a lot more EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles to meet the more ambitious requirements. LAX OVERSIGHT OF SHIPPING RATES IN WAKE OF HOUTHISThe ACD raised concerns that the US is not doing enough to address the possibility that shipping rates and delays have increased beyond what could be justified by the disruptions caused by the drought in Panama and by the Houthi attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal. The ACD accepts that costs will rise, but it expressed concerns that shipping companies could be taking advantage of the situation by charging excessive rates on routes unaffected by the disruptions. These include routes from India and China to the western coast of the US, Byer said. "Why are you jacking up the price two or threefold?" LABOR NEGOTIATIONS FOR US EAST COASTThe work contract will expire this year for dockworkers and ports along the East Coast of the US. Byer warned of a possible strike if the talks become too contentious. On the West Coast, dockworkers and ports reached an agreement on a six-year work contract. CFATS ON LIFE SUPPORTByer expressed concerns about the future of the main chemical-site security program, called the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS). CFATS is overseen by the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), which is under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). CISA lost authority to implement CFATS on 28 July 2023, when a bill that would have re-authorized it was blocked from going to a vote in the Senate. Without CFATS, other federal and state agencies could create their own chemical-site security regulations. This process has already started in the US state of Nebraska, where State Senator Eliot Bostar introduced LB1048. Other nearby states in the plains could introduce similar bills, because they tend to follow each other's lead, Byer said. Many of these state legislatures should wrap up sessions in the next couple of months, so lawmakers still have time to propose chemical-site security bills. The ACD is most concerned about larger states creating chemical-site security programs, such as California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. SENATE RAIL BILL REMAINS PENDINGA Senate rail safety bill has been pending for more than a year after a bipartisan group of legislators introduced it following the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. Congress has about 10 months to approve the bill before it lapses, Byer said. For bills in general, action during an election year could happen around the Memorial Day holiday in May, the 4 July recess, the August recess or before the end of September. After September, legislators will be focused on campaigning for the 5 November election. TEXAS BRINGS BACK TAX BREAKS FOR INDUSTRIAL PROJECTSTexas has revived a program that granted tax breaks to new chemical plants and other large industrial projects. The new program is called the Texas Jobs and Security Act, and it replaced the lapsed Chapter 313 School Value Limitation Agreement. The old program was popular with chemical companies, and their applications were among the first public disclosures of their expansion plans. The new program has already attracted applicants. Summit Next Gen is considering a plant that would convert 450 million gal/year of ethanol into 256 million gal/year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Hosted by the AFPM, the IPC takes place on March 24-26. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a federal building. Image by Lucky-photographer

18-Mar-2024

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 15 March. US CPI inflation 'sticky' at 3.2%, may delay Fed rate cuts – ICIS economist US inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), rose 0.4% month on month in February, leaving it up 3.2% year on year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday. LyondellBasell sees signs of modest improvement in Q1 – CEO LyondellBasell is seeing some indications of modest improvement in its businesses, particularly in North America and Europe, with packaging being the strongest end market, its CEO said on Wednesday. US Trinseo seeks to sell stake in AmSty Trinseo has started the process to sell its 50% stake in Americas Styrenics (AmSty), the US-based engineered materials producer said on Wednesday. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. INSIGHT: US aromatics, refining output recedes as peak oil approaches Peak oil demand in the US could lead to a further decline in refining capacity, which will tighten supplies of benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) for downstream chemical producers. Unipar expects hardship in Argentina but Brazil PVC demand should recover Unipar’s operations in Argentina are set to face pressure from the current recession but a bright spot could appear in higher civil engineering activity in Brazil, propping up demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Friday.

18-Mar-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 15 March. Europe ethylene and propylene sentiment cautiously optimistic for remainder of H1 Given the better-than-expected demand conditions, with improved sales volumes and higher prices lifting many out of the mire that was 2023, the question on everyone’s lips is how long can we expect this state of affairs to last. Potential for oil market deficit in 2024 as demand expectations grow – IEA Higher oil demand expectations and fresh production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance could push the 2024 crude market balance from a surplus to a slight deficit if the voluntary reductions remain in place for the rest of the year, according to the International Energy Agency. Surging PET bottle bale prices threaten to ‘destroy’ Europe’s R-PET market Feedstock bale prices hit €930/tonne ex-works in Poland on Monday, prompting recycled PET participants to suggest such price levels threaten to destroy the R-PET market as they fear a repeat of 2022’s disastrous price volatility. Europe acetic acid, VAM contract talks for March focus on supply disruption March negotiations are underway for European acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) contract pricing with security of supply a key influence on negotiations amid LyondellBasell’s force majeure in the US and other disruptions to global trade flows. Caution caps optimism as peak season arrives for Europe styrene market Spot activity in the Europe styrene market was moderate in the week ended 8 March, as players attended a key industry event, while cautious and conservative sentiment persisted alongside crosswinds from ongoing demand weakness and thin liquidity, high feedstock costs and reduced availability. Participants pointed to only slight improvements in demand and market optimism from levels seen in 2023. Europe cracker margins up on firmer ethylene, co-products pricing Cracker margins in Europe rose in the week on the back of firmer ethylene and co-product pricing, ICIS Margin Analysis showed on Monday.

18-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 March 2024. INSIGHT: Indorama exit from PET feedstock markets to spur China PTA exports By Nurluqman Suratman 15-Mar-24 11:42 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) will get a boost as Indorama Ventures Ltd (IVL), a global producer of downstream polyethylene terephthalate (PET), shifts away from expensive integrated operations. INSIGHT: Policies announced in China Two Sessions will impact domestic petchems market in 2024 By Jimmy Zhang 14-Mar-24 23:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's Two Sessions earlier this month – the yearly meetings where its legislature sets laws and its advisory body offers policy recommendations – attracted attention from the market for the growth targets set and announcements on expected future economic development. According to Premier Li Qiang, China's GDP growth target is “around 5.0%”. US outage to boost March Asia-Atlantic spot acetic acid, VAM trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 14-Mar-24 12:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia-Atlantic spot trades for acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) are expected to increase after supply gaps in the US and Europe emerged following an unexpected plant outage in the US. Asia caustic soda market could be underpinned by snug supply, limited vessel space By Jonathan Chou 13-Mar-24 15:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's liquid caustic soda spot supply may remain snug in the near term, while demand could continue its gradual growth into the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. PODCAST: China Group III base oils market sees supply, demand changes By Whitney Shi 12-Mar-24 15:53 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS Senior Industry Analyst Whitney Shi and ICIS Assistant Industry Analyst Jady Ma talk about supply and demand changes in China’s Group III base oils market. Saudi Aramco '23 profit falls on softer crude; ’24 focus on downstream growth By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Mar-24 12:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco's net profit in 2023 fell by 24.7% to Saudi riyal (SR) 454.8bn ($121.3bn), weighed by weaker crude oil prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins.

18-Mar-2024

India’s Chemplast Sanmar starts up specialty paste PVC plant

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Chemplast Sanmar began commercial production at its new 41,000 tonne/year specialty paste polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin facility at Cuddalore in the southern Tamil Nadu state on 27 February. The new plant, which was set up at an investment of Rs3.6bn ($43m), has increased the company’s paste PVC capacity to 107,000 tonnes/year, a company source said. At Mettur in the same state, the company operates a 66,000 tonne/year specialty PVC paste plant. “The domestic demand for paste PVC is currently estimated at 160,000 tonnes/year," the source said. "Post expansion, the company will account for 83% of the domestic capacity and we expect to have a 66% share of the Indian market,” he added. Key applications for specialty PVC paste in India include synthetic leather for apparel, footwear and automotive upholstery. It is also used to make vinyl gloves. “There is a strong demand growth in PVC from the infrastructure and real estate sectors,” the source said. “We expect this healthy demand to drive the recovery in prices and margins over the next two to three quarters,” he said, adding that India is currently heavily dependent on imports. Separately, the company commissioned the first phase of its custom manufactured chemicals division (CMCD) in September 2023 and expects to bring the second phase on stream by June 2025, a company source said. The CMCD project at Berigai in Tamil Nadu is being set up in two phases at a cost of Rs6.8bn, and will produce advanced intermediates for the agrochemical, pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals segments. This project is expected to help the company expand into fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals, broaden its portfolio and access new markets and customers, the company source said. “We commercialized three new products in September 2023 and more products are under various stages of development,” he added. Despite the downturn in the global agrochemicals industry, Chemplast Sanmar expects reasonable growth from its CMCD business during the year, the source said. Chemplast’s wholly-owned subsidiary Chemplast Cuddalore Vinyls Ltd operates 331,000 tonnes/year of suspension PVC capacity in Tamil Nadu. The company also produces caustic soda, chlorochemicals, hydrogen peroxide at its three manufacturing facilities in the Tamil Nadu state and in Karaikal in the union territory of Puducherry. ($1 = Rs82.89)

04-Mar-2024

Asia top stories – weekly summary

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 1 March 2024. Asian spot TiO2 market set to enjoy support in March By Joson Ng 01-Mar-24 13:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The titanium dioxide (TiO2) Asian spot market is likely to see improving or stable demand in March, especially in China, as the traditional peak demand season kicks in. As producers in China are also citing a healthy number of orders on hand, they are not likely to allow cargoes to go unless the bids are close to their valuation. Korea’s S-Oil targets $2bn capex for Ulsan oil-to-chems project in '24 By Pearl Bantillo 29-Feb-24 12:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korean refiner S-Oil has earmarked won (W) 2.72tr ($2bn) this year for its thermal crude-to-chemical (TC2C) project called Shaheen, representing 87% of the total capital expenditure (capex) set for 2024. VIDEO: China VAM market remains firm post-holiday on tighter spot supply By Joanne Wang 29-Feb-24 11:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)– ICIS senior industry analyst Joanne Wang reviews the vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market in China in early 2024 and shares a brief market outlook. Japan January inflation at 2.0%; end to negative interest rates in sight By Nurluqman Suratman 27-Feb-24 14:37 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan's core consumer inflation in January rose by 2.0%, matching the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) price stability target and supporting expectations that the central bank will end its ultra-low interest rates policy by April. Asia oxo-alcohols find support in post-holiday market on tight supply By Julia Tan 26-Feb-24 12:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s spot oxo-alcohols import markets saw quiet trade in the post-holiday period, with limited buying interest from northeast Asian buyers as most opted to assume a wait-and-see stance. Buyers are generally only expected to begin procurement activity following the Lantern Festival, which took place on 24 February. Asia BD spot market buoyant with active China exports By Ai Teng Lim 23-Feb-24 10:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Discussions for Asian butadiene (BD) imports picked up this week as China embarked on active export sales.

04-Mar-2024

INTERVIEW: Arkema shifts gear to more incremental M&A – CEO

PARIS (ICIS)–Arkema’s mergers and acquisitions (M&A) strategy will focus on smaller deals after a period of intense transformation into a specialty chemicals company, according to its CEO. Since its creation from Total’s chemicals operation in 2004, the France-headquartered group has reduced its exposure to commodities, while boosting specialty materials operations through organic investment and M&A. In 2006, its intermediates division accounted for 50% of group sales. Some of its big specialty acquisitions include the Sartomer business in 2011, Bostik in 2015 and Ashland’s adhesives business in 2022. Big disposals include the vinyl products business in 2012 and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) in 2021. A total of 26 acquisitions have added around €5bn in sales, while 20 divestments were worth around €3bn in revenues. The remaining intermediates comprise a fluorogas business and acrylic monomers. Speaking on the sidelines of the company’s 2023 financial results conference, CEO Thierry Le Henaff said: “We are very happy with our portfolio: it will continue to change a little bit, incrementally – we have done so much in terms of portfolio management…. Our M&A will now become more incremental.” However, capital expenditure will be increased as the company builds new plants for materials that take advantage of some of the key growth areas Arkema has identified. Le Henaff pointed out the projects and key product groups he identified during the company’s capital market day in October 2023. The CEO said: “The world is changing with the drive towards sustainability which offers opportunities. To take advantage of these we need to invest more than in the past. We will try to have a few significant projects in order to seize the opportunities from megatrends.” He said capex for 2024 is forecast to be €750m, €100m more than in 2023 and is expected to stay at these levels. Interview by Will Beacham Thumbnail photo: Arkema's Colombes, France, headquarters (Source: Arkema)

01-Mar-2024

VIDEO: China VAM market remains firm post-holiday on tighter spot supply

SINGAPORE (ICIS)– ICIS senior industry analyst Joanne Wang reviews the vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market in China in early 2024 and shares a brief market outlook. Domestic operating rate remains low at around 70% NE Asian producers gradually shut units for maintenance Ethylene-based VAM supply to continue falling in March-April ICN

29-Feb-2024

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 23 February. LyondellBasell to lease California plant to produce recycled resins from waste LyondellBasell has acquired a recycling plant in California from PreZero in which it plans to produce post-consumer recycled resins from plastic waste, the US chemicals major said on Tuesday. Brazil’s Unigel gets green light from creditors for debt restructuring Unigel has agreed a Brazilian reais (R) 3.9 billion ($791 million) debt restructuring with its creditors, which has saved the beleaguered styrenics, acrylics and fertilizer producer from filing for bankruptcy for the time being. Mexico's Orbia to pause PVC investments after weak Q4 results Orbia will be pausing polyvinyl chloride (PVC) capacity expansion due to weak market economics which weighed on its 2023 earnings, the Mexico-based producer said. US Huntsman expects gradual recovery, seeks to boost prices and volume Huntsman expects a gradual recovery to take hold in 2024, in which the company will attempt to pursue higher prices and recover share, the CEO said on Thursday. Pembina to supply Dow Canada net-zero petchem project with ethane Canadian midstream energy firm Pembina Pipeline has entered into long-term agreements to supply Dow’s upcoming net-zero petrochemicals project at Fort Saskatchewan in Alberta province with 50,000 bbl/day of ethane.

26-Feb-2024

Latin America stories: weekly summary

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 23 February. NEWS Argentina manufacturing output falls 12% in December Argentina’s recession is hitting the petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sectors hard, with output down 11.9% in December, year on year, the country’s statistics body Indec said late on Thursday. Mexico’s secondary activities output up 1.2% year on year in December Output in Mexico’s petrochemicals-intensive secondary activities rose in December by 1.2%, year on year, the country’s statistics office Inegi said this week. Pause in PVC projects ‘prudent’ until prices rise to $1,200/tonne – Orbia CEO Depressed global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices prompted Orbia to take the “prudent” decision to put new projects on hold, the CEO of the Mexican chemical producer said on Thursday. Petrochemicals margins could worsen in 2024 – Mexico’s Alpek Mexican chemicals producer Alpek’s stock was falling more than 3% on Wednesday afternoon after the company issued a downbeat guidance for 2024 in which petrochemicals margins could worsen from the already weak 2023 averages. Brazil's Braskem Q4 main chemicals, resins sales fall on lower demand Braskem’s main chemicals and resins sales in its domestic market fell by 15% and 9%, respectively, in the fourth quarter, year on year, on the back of persistent poor demand, the Brazilian petrochemicals major said this week. Brazil’s Unigel gets green light from creditors for debt restructuring Unigel has agreed a Brazilian reais (R) 3.9 billion ($791 million) debt restructuring with its creditors, which has saved the beleaguered styrenics, acrylics and fertilizer producer from filing for bankruptcy for the time being. US Stepan recovering LatAm surfactants market share, margins – CEO Stepan is recovering its share in the Latin American surfactants market following supply chain disruptions in the second half of 2022, Scott Behrens, CEO of the US-based company, said on Tuesday. PRICINGLat Am PP domestic prices fall in Colombia on cheaper imports Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices were down in Colombia due to more competitive prices for imported products. In other Latin American countries, prices were steady. Lat Am PE buyers on the sidelines waiting for March prices Domestic, international polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed unchanged this week across Latin American countries. Mexico PET industry expecting stable sales during the upcoming peak bottle season Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Mexico held steady this week, with weak demand and ample supply in February. Brazil ethanol sales continue to face positive results in 2024 According to Unica, Brazil's ethanol sales grew by 38.22% in January over the same time frame in 2023. With this achievement, sales volume has surpassed its highest point since October 2020.

26-Feb-2024

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