Chemicals

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff cuts on various products, including electronics and automobiles – major downstream sectors of petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports. India PM Modi in US for state visit on 12-13 February Tariff cuts incorporated in India budget for year to March 2026 India braces for impact from US’ 25% tariffs on all steel, aluminium imports Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet with Trump in Washington on Thursday – their first meeting since Trump assumed office for a second term. The US has not imposed any direct tariffs on India yet. However, the world’s biggest economy is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on any countries with tariffs on US goods. India’s tariffs on agricultural, mining and manufacturing products from the US were in double-digits, while US tariffs for the same products from India were in the low single-digit levels. The south Asian country, which is a giant emerging market in Asia, is expected to offer tariff cuts on more than 30 goods, as well as increase the purchase of US defence and energy products, according to analysts at Japanese brokerage firm Nomura, in a research note on 10 February. India’s national budget for the next fiscal year starting April 2025 contained provisions reducing import duties on some goods including electronics, textiles, intermediate goods used for technology manufacturing and satellites, synthetic flavouring essences and motorcycles, which are expected to benefit US-based companies. It was largely seen as a pre-emptive move to thwart reciprocal tariffs from the US under Trump. India may consider further tariff reductions on luxury vehicles, solar cells, and chemicals, as part of its strategy to maintain smooth trade relations, according to analysts from Nomura. “We are analysing the announcements made by the US on increasing tariffs,” an official from India’s Ministry of Commerce said. “We are also asking our industry how these tariffs are going to affect them positively or negatively and are looking at the impact of the tariffs that have already been imposed,” he said. DIALING DOWN ON PROTECTIONIST STANCE India has much higher tariff rates compared with other countries in Asia. Amid threats of reciprocal tariffs from the US, India is being forced to backtrack on its protectionist policy, at least where the US is concerned, while maintaining a tough stance on rival Asian giant China. In year to March 2024, the US was India’s largest export destination and accounted for nearly 18% of the country’s total merchandise exports of $437.10 billion, official data showed. Key Indian exports to the US include industrial machinery, gems and jewellery, pharmaceuticals, fuels, iron and steel, textiles, vehicles, and chemicals. US’ exports to India, meanwhile, accounted for just 2% of total US shipments abroad in January-December 2024. A mutually beneficial tariff regime could be struck between then as India seeks to further boost exports to the world’s biggest economy. The US’ recent tariff hikes on China opens up opportunities for Indian exporters to increase their share in the US market. For instance, India’s exports of auto components to the US are currently very low, accounting for only 2% of the US market, underscoring scope for expansion. Between April and September 2024, the country’s total exports of auto parts stood at $11.1 billion, a third of which – or $3.67 billion – were shipped to the US, according to the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA). Over the past few years, India has adopted trade measures like import certification under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), increased antidumping duties on various products, including petrochemicals, to limit imports and boost domestic production. While some of these policies apply globally, some of them are directed at China, which is a major exporter of goods to India. While the tariffs are worrisome, certain sectors like auto components, mobiles and electronics, electronic machinery, apparel, leather and footwear, furniture, pharmaceutical and toys could see an increase in demand from US buyers, the commerce ministry official said. India is a major exporter of pharmaceutical products to the US but relies on China for 70% of raw material called active pharmaceutical ingredients (API). The US accounted for over 31% of India’s total pharmaceutical exports of $27.9 billion in year to March 2024. IMPORTS OF US LNG TO GROW; US’ TARIFFS ON STEEL, ALUMINIUM WORRY INDIA The south Asian country is expected to increase its petroleum product imports from the US, to alleviate trade imbalances. For the fiscal year 2023-24, India imported $12.96 billion worth of petroleum oil and products from the US, according to official data. India’s state-owned oil and gas companies, including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Gas Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), are in active discussions with American suppliers to import more LNG from the US, petroleum secretary Pankaj Jain said on 10 February. The recent announcement of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US could heavily impact India. While Indian steel exports to the US are relatively small, the US tariffs could cause exporting nations to redirect their goods to the Indian markets. India is both a major exporter as well as importer of steel, on which a basic customs duty of around 7-8% apply – much lower than the US’ 25% – raising fears of supply flooding the south Asian country. With the US shutting its doors to global steel, the surplus will inevitably be redirected to India, threatening our domestic industry with market distortions, price crashes, and unfair competition, Indian Steel Association (ISA) Naveen Jindal said said in an official statement on 11 February. “The US, a major steel importer, has historically imposed strict trade restrictions, with over 30 remedial actions in force against Indian steel – some for more than three decades,” Jindal said. “This latest tariff is expected to slash steel exports to the US by 85%, creating a massive surplus that will likely flood India,” he added. While only 5% of the total steel exports from India go to the US, the country accounts for nearly 12% of India’s aluminium exports. Both steel and aluminium industries use chemicals like caustic soda and soda ash during the production process. Insight article by Priya Jestin With contributions from Nurluqman Suratman and Pearl Bantillo

13-Feb-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–German chemical producers' trade group VCI wants the country’s new government, to be formed after early elections on 23 February, to maintain the so-called “debt brake” (Schuldenbremse). Debt brake ensures fiscal discipline Economy weak, but fiscal position strong Reform may drive investments to boost economy A dispute over government spending priorities contributed to the collapse of the coalition government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz in November. Under the constitutionally enshrined fiscal rule, structural budget deficits cannot exceed 0.35% of GDP. The rule can be suspended in times of emergency, as it was during the pandemic and the start of the Ukraine war. In the current election campaign, political parties are now debating whether to retain, ditch, or reform the fiscal rule. Critics of the Schuldenbremse say that it hinders public investments, needed to help revive the country's economy, which has been weak since 2018. GDP shrank in both 2024 and 2023. However, VCI’s position is clear: The Schuldenbremse has proven itself as it managed to halt the trend of growing debt/GDP ratios, the group said in a position paper this week. FISCAL DISCIPLINEThe fiscal rule, anchored in the constitution, ensured that spending does not exceed means and that the current generation does not live at the expense of future ones, VCI said. As a result, Germany has a relatively low level of debt and low debt service obligations – giving it the financial capacity to react in times of crisis, whereas higher-indebted EU countries needed to rely on the solidarity of their neighbors or eurobonds, the group said. VCI acknowledged that the Schuldenbremse is being questioned in light of the current “massive economic downturn and the immense investment backlog," and it said that the rule was “not perfect”. However, the country’s current problems reflected the “political deficits” of the past, when government neglected necessary investments in infrastructure, security, education, and research and development, it said. REFORM VCI would not rule out a “moderate reform” of the Schuldenbremse, allowing for temporarily higher deficits, as long as the debt-to-GDP ratio remains below 60%, it said. Reforming the debt brake could buy time until investments and reforms start to pay off,  said VCI chief economist Henrik Meincke. The government's priority, however, must be "to clearly prioritize expenses and focus on investments", he said. Meincke urged a “fundamental course correction” in industrial policy, with a focus on the government’s core tasks, a sharp reduction in bureaucracy, and “tax revenue invested in security, education and infrastructure, as a priority”. Any reform of the debt brake must not be “a quick fix” as that would not solve the country’s structural problems, the economist said. Analysts at ING said the current political debate about public finances in Germany may create the impression that the country was close to bankruptcy, which was not the case at all. German government debt had stabilized slightly above 60% of GDP and was expected to stay there until 2026, analysts said. “Germany has by far the lowest government debt ratio of the larger eurozone countries,” they added. Thumbnail photo of Friedrich Merz, head of the opposition conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which leads in opinion polls. The CDU favors retaining the Schuldenbremse, but Merz has said he may be open to discussions about reforming it. Photo source: CDU

12-Feb-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) wage scale committee voted unanimously to approve the tentative agreement between the union and US Gulf and East Coast ports, setting up a vote by the full membership later this month. An ILA strike was averted in January when a tentative deal was reached between the two parties with both sides agreeing to work under the existing pact while awaiting the ILA’s full wage scale committee and the scheduling of a ratification vote from the full membership. The wage scale committee consists of more than 200 ILA union locals from Maine to Texas. The new agreement and all its benefits are retroactive to 1 October 2024, and, if ratified by ILA members, will be in effect until 30 September 2030. ILA rank-and-file members will receive details of the agreement approved by the wage scale committee at local meetings over the next two weeks and then participate in the ratification vote on 25 February. The specific details of the agreement will not be made public. The two sides agreed on the financial part of the deal in early October, ending a three-day strike, with commitments to continue negotiating on other issues, specifically automation and semi-automation at ports, which the union opposed because of the threat of losing jobs previously done by humans. The labor issue would have had no impact on liquid chemical tanker traffic in and out of ports as they typically serve private terminals and do not require the same labor as container ships. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.

11-Feb-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–An interim trade accord between Chile and the EU kicked off on 1 February and the 27-country bloc is not shy about its main objective: get preferential access to the Latin American nation’s vast resources of raw materials. Chemicals players on both sides have welcomed the trade deal, although trade in chemicals is likely to remain limited as Chile’s natural trading partners in the sector have always been the US and Asia. Under the terms of the free trade agreement (FTA), 99.9% of EU exports will enter Chile duty-free, whilst EU firms gain equal treatment with domestic companies across Chilean service sectors, including finance, telecommunications, maritime transport, and delivery services. European businesses bidding for government contracts in Chile, Latin America's fifth-largest economy, will receive enhanced market access through streamlined procurement procedures. CHEMICALS: COLATERAL WINNERS?While chemicals companies in Chile and the EU may not feel much of an impact from the trade deal, chemicals players in the 20-million population Latin American economy showed relief that closer ties are being developed with the EU, rather than China. In 2023, the EU enjoyed a trade surplus in chemicals with Chile of €120 million, the result of EU exporting €770 million worth of chemicals to Chile, while the latter's exports to the EU stood at €649 million, according to figures from Europe-wide chemicals trade group Cefic. In a written response to ICIS, a spokesperson for Cefic said three quarters of the EU exports to Chile were consumer chemicals and specialties. In the case of Chile’s exports to the EU, 80% of them were of inorganic chemicals. Cefic said that while chemicals are not at the center of the trade deal, lithium and other minerals as well as metals are, and that could ultimately benefit the chemicals industry if the EU was to achieve a (green) industrial revival. In fact, the interim deal which came into effect on 1 February, which replaced a previous association agreement, included changes and updates to energy and raw materials: the association agreement came into force in 2002: hydrogen and lithium existed already then, but were little spoken about. On the one hand, EU chemicals firms cannot wait to see their energy bills fall, and more so following the 2022 energy and natural gas shock after Russia invaded Ukraine. Chile’s prime position to produce green hydrogen – strong sunlight and winds for the renewable energy, and abundant water – could turn the country into an exporter of the gas upon which most hopes to decarbonize the industrial sectors have been placed. Green energies such as hydrogen have the potential to lower the EU’s high energy bill. Several European companies have announced plans to build green hydrogen plants in Latin America – where costs are lower than at home – aiming to export to Europe most of the hydrogen produced. On the other hand, EU manufacturers are anxious to secure stable supply of the minerals they require to make the green transition the EU itself is pushing them to implement. By having access to those minerals, manufacturing in the EU could see a revival and indirectly push up demand for chemicals. “While EU-Chile chemicals trade is not major in comparison with other trade relationships, trade with Chile is important, especially due to Chile's leading position in the supply of certain raw materials,” said the Cefic spokesperson. “Chile is a key supplier of lithium and copper for the EU, two metals that are key for the EU chemicals industry in applications like cathode active materials for EVs [electric vehicles] or catalysts. In the future, Chile's hydrogen exports can also become even more relevant due to the EU's green transition.” In terms of polymers, Chile’s annual consumption stands at around 1.3 million tonnes, and the country’s output is far from covering even half of that, according to figures by the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. Local production of polymers, said Asipla, stands at 260,000 tonnes, comprising 200,000 tonnes from recycling and approximately 60,000 tonnes of virgin material. Some company names include Petroquim, Chile’s sole producer of polypropylene (PP), or Styropec producing polystyrene (PS) and expandable polystyrene (EPS). Magdalena Balcells is Asipla’s CEO, and one of the most no-nonsense lobbyists this correspondent has met in almost two years in Latin America. In June last year, her straight talk at an industry event captivated the audience – although that audience was, of course, friendly terrain. “Despite China's transition from petrochemical importer to exporter in the past few years, producers like Petroquim have been able to maintain their market position through established client relationships built on trust, certification, and rigor: advantages which are less predictable with Chinese suppliers,” said Balcells. In this interview, like in a previous one in 2024, Balcells insisted Chile’s policymakers tended to think the country is a developed economy where recycling policies could be easy to implement. This push, however, has prompted many plastic companies to get a grip with sustainability, she said, and that can only be a good thing. On trade relations, Asipla’s CEO is crystal clear on her feelings about China. Asked whether a deal with the EU, any deal, will always be preferable to one with China, she said: “Always preferable. The EU and Chile share a common language, a common way of doing business and trade. Chile's OECD membership facilitates European trade relations. With China, everything becomes… very difficult,” said Balcells. “Chinese exports of industrial goods imports continue to present a significant challenge in terms of price competition, across many industrial sectors, in Chile and the wider Latin America. But for Chile, the EU is a very important commercial partner and one with which it is still relatively easy to operate. This FTA should be a positive.” In a written response to ICIS, the head of logistics at Petroquim, Jorge Gaete, confirmed the company does not expect a great impact from the EU-Chile trade deal, but welcomed it nevertheless as it should benefit the Chilean economy as whole and partly protect it from the new protectionist wave. “This FTA is not of great importance for the chemical industry, and we don’t expect it to represent major benefits for Petroquim. This trade deal, however, is important for the issue of minerals such as lithium and copper, which are the great reserves Chile has,” said Gaete. “Moreover, now with the [US President Donald] Trump government and all the reforms he is implementing or planning to implement, including the increases in import tariffs, I believe that we as a country will benefit from the agreement with the EU.” Last week, Trump mentioned tariffs on metals, including copper, which would hit the Chilean economy hard: the country is the second largest producer of copper globally, and its exports are a key employment- and foreign reserves-generator. Chile’s chemicals trade group Asiquim did not immediately respond to a request for comment. This article is the first part of this Insight. The second part, to be published on Wednesday (12 February), will focus on Chile’s vast natural resources, paramount to kick start green mobility and green industry, and the EU’s desire to get hold of as much of them as it can  Insight by Jonathan Lopez Front thumbnail: Shipping containers with flags of Chile and European Union (Shutterstock)

11-Feb-2025

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Europe’s petrochemical sector is in the middle of a crisis  which EU leaders can only solve through bold action, according to Ilham Kadri, president of Cefic and CEO of Syensqo. More than 11 million tonnes of European chemicals capacity slated to close Decline can be reversed with strong EU political action Simplify bureaucracy, lower energy costs, finance low carbon transition EU needs to stimulate demand for low carbon products, create level playing field against global competition Time to turn words into action through EU Clean Industrial Deal, new chemicals strategy Chemicals CEOs in Europe need to examine their portfolios to identify where they can win against global competitors Europe has a lot to offer – cutting edge technology, talent Region needs a strong economy and that is only possible with a strong chemical industry In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Ilham Kadri, CEO of Syensqo and president of Cefic and the International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA). This interview was recorded on 31 January, 2025. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

11-Feb-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US will start imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports starting 12 March, under the executive order signed by US President Donald Trump on 11 February. For South Korea, the US’ decision effectively cancels the annual tariff-free quota agreed upon between the two countries since 2018. South Korea currently benefits from duty-free quota for 2.63 million tonnes of steel exports to the US, set under a 2018 bilateral agreement – based on 70% of the northeast Asian country’s 2015-2017 average annual exports – with US tariffs applying to excess volumes. At the close of trade on Tuesday, shares of South Korean steel firm POSCO was down 0.84%, while the benchmark KOSPI Index inched up 0.71% to close at 2,539.05. Foreign steel accounts for about 25% of US steel consumption, with Canada, Brazil, and Mexico being the largest suppliers, followed by South Korea and Vietnam, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). The new tariffs would terminate tariff-free quota deals with South Korea and other major metal exporters to safeguard American industries, the White House document said. "Increasing and persistently high import volumes from countries exempted from the duties or subject to other alternative agreements like quotas and tariff-rate quotas have captured the benefit of U.S. demand at the domestic industry’s expense and transmitted harmful effects onto the domestic industry," Trump said in the document. "From 2022 to 2024, imports from countries subject to quotas (Argentina, Brazil and South Korea) increased by approximately 1.5 million metric tons, even as U.S. demand declined by more than 6.1 million tons during the period." Trump also on 10 February announced plans to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on countries with duties on US goods within the next two days. ICIS senior economist for global chemicals Kevin Swift had said that the US tariffs on steel and other metals would translate to higher cost and could ultimately reduce capital expenditure in chemicals and industrial plants.

11-Feb-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. At first glance, the latest ICIS ethylene operating rate forecast is alarming. Even by 2035, global operating rates could still be below their long-term average—potentially marking a 14-year downturn since the Evergrande Turning Point in late 2021. But here’s the good news: This is a live situation, and industry adaptation is inevitable. The future is not set in stone—it will be shaped by the decisions we make today. The Data Speaks • ICIS base case projections show an average 6.3 million tonnes per year of new capacity. • However, by reducing this to 2.5 million tonnes per year, operating rates could return to 87%—the long-term norm. • The question is: When and how will the market rebalance? Plant Closures, Project Delays & Cancellations: The Unknowns Balancing the market means making difficult decisions, but shutdowns and project delays are far from straightforward: • Timing uncertainty – Could the upturn come sooner than expected? • High exit costs – Environmental clean-up and pension liabilities complicate shutdowns. • China’s role – Ageing plants, coal-based capacity, refinery feedstock limits, and regulatory shifts could drive rationalisation, but when and to what extent? • Government intervention – Will policy sustain industries in Europe & South Korea, or will we see major consolidations? Your Three-Point Plan for Success 1. Update the data every six months – Ethylene is just the start. Conduct the same detailed analysis for every product, country, and region. 2. Stay ahead of trade policy – As global trade tensions rise, import tariffs will shift market dynamics. Companies that act early will gain an advantage. 3. Leverage AI & analytics – Cost savings and efficiencies from AI-driven tools like Ask ICIS are already transforming decision-making. What This Means for You Yes, the downturn is severe, but opportunities remain. A data-driven approach will enable your business to adapt, optimise, and position itself for the recovery. Are you ready? Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

11-Feb-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Potential US 25% tariffs on steel and other metals could ultimately reduce capital expenditure (capex) in chemicals and industrial plants as costs rise, according to an economist at ICIS. Kevin Swift, senior economist for global chemicals at ICIS, said “steel is a classic example” of how tariffs work and can harm other manufacturing industries. At the weekend, US President Donald Trump said he plans to impose fresh 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. “Any steel coming into the US is going to have a 25% tariff – aluminium too,” said Trump. Canada, Brazil and Mexico supply most steel to the US. Trump said the metal levies would apply to "everybody" but the White House has not yet published an official communication on these tariffs. Earlier on Monday, Brazilian daily Folha de S. Paulo cited an unnamed government source saying Brazil could tax more to US technological majors in retaliation for the steel tariff: around half of Brazil’s steel output is sold to the US. The economy minister, Fernando Haddad, denied such a possibility later in the day. The US’s chemicals trade group the American Chemistry Council (ACC) had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. HIGHER PRICES, LOWER INVESTMENTSWith the US’s steel output declining for decades, the country’s strong manufacturing industries have become dependent on imports, with a large trade deficit. It remains to be seen whether higher tariffs can also bring back to the US higher steel output. In the meantime, however, higher tariffs are going to increase prices for a variety of manufacturing sectors, who will lose competitiveness when they try to pass higher costs on. “A tariff raises the price in the market as domestic steel producers raise the price for steel to match the tariff… Higher price lowers quantity demanded (law of demand) but does increase quantity supplied by domestic producers. Tariffs allow inefficient domestic products to produce when then they could not have done so without the tariff,” said ICIS’s Swift. “Steel tariffs will raise the cost of building a chemical plant, for ongoing maintenance, etc. These will especially hurt when government policy is to foster re-shoring and FDI [foreign direct investment] in the US.” Swift cited two studies conducted during Trump’s first term, when higher tariffs on steel were imposed on some countries. One of the research pieces examined the impact of higher tariffs on employment in US steel and aluminium industries: jobs in these metals, mainly steel, would increase by 26,000 over three years, but at the same time employment in the rest of the economy would decline by 433,000 jobs. “Owing to damage of higher steel and aluminium prices on customer industries,” said Swift. “Another analysis focusing solely on steel shows that steel users paid an additional $5.6 billion for more expensive domestic steel; steel users will pay about $650,000 for each job created in the steel industry.” TEMPORARY RISEAnalysts at London-headquartered Capital Economics were more optimistic, arguing that any price rise due to higher tariffs would be temporary. “If 2018 is any guide, steel and aluminium import prices will rise one-to-one with the new tariffs. But the import share of steel, the more important of the two for domestic consumption, has fallen by 8%-points since then to 32%. That lower import intensity means the tariffs will have a smaller impact on US prices,” said the analysts. "The rise in US steel prices then was short-lived, as US production rose, demand fell amid a global industrial slowdown, and Trump granted an exemption for imports from Canada and Mexico. The current low level of industrial utilization in the steel sector means there is again scope for production to pick up.” Capital Economics was more doubtful about the positive impact of the higher tariffs in both the steel sector but also the wider economy. “Any rise in production is unlikely to materially boost the overall economy. Even if total fabricated metals production rebounded to the peak seen after the first Trump steel and aluminium tariffs, it would boost industrial production by just 0.4% and GDP by just 0.05%,” they concluded. Frong page picture source: World Steel Association (Worldsteel)

10-Feb-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 7 February. NEWS US tariffs could jeopardize $800 million of Mexican plastics exportsPotential US tariffs of 25% on all goods coming from Mexico could hit the country’s plastics sector hard, with exports to the US worth $800million, plastics sector trade group Anipac said this week. US suspends tariffs on Mexico for one month as high-level talks on key issues startThe US has agreed to pause for one month its 25% import tariffs on Mexican goods as the two countries agreed setting up working groups on three key issues, the presidents of both countries said on Monday. Brazil's Braskem Q4 resin sales fall 7% quarterly on lower PE, PP demandResin sales in Braskem's domestic market dropped by 7% in Q4 2024 compared with Q3 2024, mainly due to the decreased demand for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) explained by the seasonality of the period, the Brazilian petrochemicals major said on Wednesday in its quarterly production and sales report. Brazil’s Unigel appoints Dario Gaeta as CEO after debt restructuring greenlitBrazilian chemicals producer Unigel has concluded its debt restructuring process worth Brazilian reais (R) 5.1 billion ($885 million) after a Sao Paulo business court greenlit the plans drawn up by creditors. Brazil's industry broadly declines in December – trade groupBrazil's industrial activity key metrics slowed down in December, with revenue and production hours both falling 1.3% from November, trade group the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) said on Friday. Brazil chemicals output falls slightly in December; up 3.3% annuallyBrazil’s chemicals output fell by 0.8% in December, month on month, but it rose by 3.3% in 2024, compared with 2023, the country’s statistical agency IBGE said on Wednesday. Brazil’s manufacturing expansion keeps slowing on currency, fiscal woesBrazilian manufacturing continued expanding in January albeit at lower rates than for most of 2024 as currency weakness drove up import costs and dampened demand, though firms remained optimistic enough to hire temporary workers, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Mexico’s manufacturing slump deepens as new orders keep fallingMexico's manufacturing sector contracted for a seventh straight month in January as new orders fell at their fastest pace since October, analysts at S&P Global said. Colombia’s manufacturing jumps in January on sharply higher new ordersColombian manufacturing growth accelerated sharply in January as new orders rose at their fastest pace in a year, driving increased hiring and purchasing activity, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Brazil chemicals deficit hits $49 billion in 2024 despite higher tariffs by year-endBrazil's chemical industry posted a $48.7 billion trade deficit in 2024 as imports surged to $63.9 billion, driven by “predatory pricing” from US and Asian suppliers, the country’s chemicals trade group Abiquim said. Brazil chemicals producer prices up 12% in 2024Chemical producer prices in Brazil rose 12.2% in 2024 year on year, and above the average for industrial producer prices, the country’s statistical agency IBGE said on Tuesday. PRICINGLatAm PP international prices stable to up on ´higher feedstock costs, squeezed marginsInternational polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed as steady to higher across the region on the back of higher feedstock costs and squeezed margins. LatAm PE domestic, international prices increase on higher US export offersDomestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices increased across the region on the back of higher US export offers.

10-Feb-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 7 February. INSIGHT: US tariffs unleash higher costs to nation's chem industry The tariffs that the US will impose on all imports from Canada, Mexico and China will unleash higher costs for the nation's chemical industry, create supply-chain snarls and open it to retaliation. UPDATE: China retaliates with tariffs on US coal, crude, LNG China announced on Tuesday that it will levy 15% tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the US, and a 10% tariff on US crude oil, farm equipment and certain vehicles from 10 February – reviving a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. SHIPPING: US shippers likely to frontload cargos amid 30-day pause on tariffs With the US agreeing to a 30-day pause before proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect, shipping analysts anticipate a rush to frontload as much cargo as possible over the next month. US Jan auto sales up year on year; analysts expect growth in 2025 with some headwinds US January sales of new light vehicles rose year on year, and market analysts expect sales in 2025 to grow by 1.5-2.0% even with some headwinds including persistently high interest rates and a pushback on electric vehicles (EVs) under the new presidential administration. US tariffs could jeopardize $800 million of Mexican plastics exports Potential US tariffs of 25% on all goods coming from Mexico could hit the country’s plastics sector hard, with exports to the US worth $800million, plastics sector trade group Anipac said this week. UBS sees US imposing further tariffs on China imports in Q3 2025 and 2026 The US implementing 10% additional tariffs on all goods imports from China on 4 February is likely to be just the beginning, with further duties being imposed later in 2025 and 2026, said investment bank UBS’s chief China economist.

10-Feb-2025