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2024 APAC Base Oils Midyear Outlook

In the latter half of 2024, Asia’s base oils market is poised for moderate shifts. Demand in China is likely to recover, with a notable decline in imports. Group II supply is set to increase, despite ongoing maintenance constraints.

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Railroad shuts many Florida terminals ahead of Hurricane Milton

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Railroad company CSX is suspending operations at several of its intermodal and TRANSFLO terminals in Florida ahead of Milton, which has shifted its path away from Tampa, a major fertilizer hub. If Milton maintains its latest forecasted path, it could spare Tampa of the worst damage, according to CoreLogic, an insurance data company. Milton's maximum sustained winds are nearly 145 miles/h (230 km/h), making it a Category 4 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Milton is expected to weaken to a Category 3 hurricane and make landfall later on Wednesday south of Tampa near Sarasota, Florida, CoreLogic said. Milton will then pass over central Florida. RAIL DISRUPTIONSRail shipments through the Tampa area will likely face delays until Milton passes, CSX said. It expects multiple downed trees and power outages in the Wildwood, Lakeland and surrounding Tampa subdivisions. Lakeland and nearby Kathleen are near Tampa and are home to some thermoset resin plants. CSX has taken the following actions: Closed the Central Florida ILC intermodal gate. Closed the Tampa, FL intermodal gate. Closed the TRANSFLO terminals at Tampa and Tampa Port. Will close the Sanford TRANSFLO terminal midday on Wednesday. Another railroad company, Norfolk Southern, has not updated its notice from 7 October, when it said that it is monitoring and preparing for Hurricane Milton. MORE PORTS CLOSESome of Florida's ports on the Atlantic coast have set conditions to Zulu, meaning that they are closed to inbound and outbound vessels. The following table summarizes the port conditions along the eastern and western coasts of Florida. Port Status Condition Port of Pensacola Open Port Panama City Open X-Ray Port St Joe Open X-Ray Port Tampa Bay Closed Zulu SeaPort Manatee Closed Zulu PortMiami Open Yankee Port Everglades Open Yankee Port of Palm Beach Closed Zulu Fort Pierce Closed Zulu Port Canaveral Closed Zulu Jaxport Closed Zulu Port of Fernandina Closed Zulu Source: ports, US Coast Guard IMPACT ON FERTILIZERS, PHOSPHATES, CHEMSFor chemicals, there is some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) production in Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida. Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola, Florida, which has plants that make nylon and thermoset resins. Tampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer industry, hosting corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Fertilizer producer Mosaic has its headquarters in Tampa. The company has not issued any statements regarding its corporate operations. A source at the fertilizer company Yara said it was shutting down its Tampa offices to comply with the evacuation orders. Near Tampa is Florida's phosphate mining operations in Bone Valley, which covers parts of Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties. In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of which nine are active, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien has yet to restart its White Springs phosphate operations following Helene, an earlier hurricane that made landfall farther north in Florida's Big Bend region. On 30 September, Mosaic said its Riverview operations were offline following water intrusion from a storm surge caused by Hurricane Helene. POSSIBLE DAMAGEHurricane Milton could be extremely destructive because of its winds, rainfall and storm surge. It will pass over the following metropolitan statistical areas. Region Population Tampa 3,342,963 Orlando 2,817,933 Jacksonville 1,713,240 Sarasota 910,108 Source: US Census Bureau The following map shows the expected path of Milton. Source: National Hurricane Center CoreLogic, the insurance data company, said Milton's shift to the south of Tampa could limit the magnitude of insured losses. The following map compares three insured loss scenarios based on Milton's path. Source: CoreLogic The following map shows Milton's expected storm surges. Source: National Hurricane Center. The following map shows three-day rain totals. Source: CoreLogic CHEMS AND RECONSTRUCTIONFor hurricanes in general, reconstruction can translate to increased demand for many chemicals and polymers. The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used in paints. Solvents used in paints and coatings include butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate (butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA). Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are also used to make paints and coatings. For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation. Polyurethanes are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols. High density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in pipe. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make cladding, window frames, wires and cables, flooring and roofing membranes. Unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) are used to make coatings and composites. Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make paints and adhesives. Thumbnail shows an image of Hurricane Milton. Image by the National Hurricane Center. 

09-Oct-2024

INSIGHT: China stimulus measures take center stage as markets re-open

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Volatility marked the first few days of re-opening of China’s financial and commodities markets as investors’ initial hopes of more economic measures were crushed. Implementation plans for pre-holiday measures unclear Infrastructure-focused sovereign bonds to drive growth further China GDP growth to slow to 4.3% in 2025 – World Bank The highly anticipated return of Chinese market players after a week-long absence sparked a surge in the equities markets, with the closely watched CSI 300 – which tracks shares of the top 300 companies trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen, had surged by 11% on 8 October. “Expectations were high after the monetary announcements made [in] the week of 24 September and there were even news reports of up to a [yuan] CNY10 trillion ($1.4 trillion) stimulus,” hedge fund portfolio manager Rikki Malik said in a note issued on Wednesday for investment research and analysis firm Smartkarma. On Wednesday, the CSI300 index fell by 7%, reflecting concerns over the lack of concrete new stimulus measures from Beijing to sustain the rally. Other Asian equity indices tracked the weakness in Chinese bourses amid risk aversion also stoked by geopolitical jitters in the Middle East At 08:53 GMT, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down by around 1.4% at 20,637.24, continuing from its sharpest single-day decline in 16 years in the previous session. Chemicals giant Sinopec was down by 3.61% and state energy firm PetroChina fell by 3.14% in Hong Kong. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea's KOSPI Composite ended 0.61% lower to 2,594.36 while Japan's key Nikkei 225 closed up by 0.87% at 39,277.96 China’s petrochemical futures tumbled, with polyvinyl chloride (PVC), purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and paraxylene (PX) futures leading the slump. Market sentiment was also weighed down by crude oil’s plunge overnight, in which both Brent and WTI benchmarks shed more than 4%. POST-HOLIDAY POLICY BRIEFING UNDERWHELMS The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) – China’s top economic planner – held a briefing on 8 October in which chairman Zheng Shanjie said that China was "fully confident" of achieving economic targets for 2024. But his failure to detail sufficiently big or new measures rekindled market doubts about Beijing's commitment to ensuring the economy can climb out of its most serious slump since the global pandemic and achieve a 5% growth. Market players were initially expecting the government to adopt further fiscal measures to arrest the slowdown of the world’s second-biggest economy. Instead, the NDRC emphasized confidence in achieving the "around 5%" growth target for this year based on policy measures announced in late September. Toward this end, issuance of long-term sovereign and local government bonds will be accelerated to fund infrastructure projects well into next year. Additionally, the NDRC announced upcoming investments in key strategic areas totaling yuan (CNY) 100 billion, on top of plans to expedite CNY100 billion in central government investment originally planned for 2025. NO MAJOR NEAR-TERM IMPACT FROM STIMULUS MEASURES During the seven-day China holiday in the first week of October, domestic tourist trips grew 5.9% year on year, with revenues up by 6.3% over the same period. But the per trip spend was near flat at 0.4%, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Week-long holidays in the country, including the Spring Festival/Lunar New Year and Labor Day celebrations in February and May, respectively, typically result in spikes in domestic tourism spending. In October, domestic tourism activities remained positive this year while there were also reports of stronger outbound and inbound travel during the period. The two earlier major holidays in China – the Spring Festival and Labour Day holidays – had recorded stronger improvements across number of trips, total spend and spend per trip, according to Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research in a note on Wednesday. "Although the recovery in outbound travel may dilute the demand for domestic tourism, the moderation in spend per trip continue to indicate more cautious spending amongst consumers," it said. "The initial spillover from recent PBOC [People's Bank of China]-led stimulus to consumer spending including the rollout of local government vouchers and promotions to boost consumption had been lacking in the National Day holiday statistics," UOB said. "This further affirms the need for stronger fiscal measures that target consumption and support to the labor market particularly with youth unemployment rate rising to 18.8% in Aug which continues to hamper the recovery in consumer confidence." Ahead of the National Day holidays, China’s central bank had announced stimulus measures estimated to be worth at least CNY3 trillion, which is equivalent to 2.3% of its GDP. These measures include a 50-basis point cut to banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR), injecting CNY1 trillion into the financial system. Further measures include a CNY1 trillion capital injection to state-owned banks, a reduction in interest rates on existing mortgages to release CNY150 billion in funds, and CNY800 billion allocated to swap and re-lending facilities for stock purchases. “Investors were also disappointed that some of the 2025 budget would be pulled forward to this year, implying no new money, but… it is easier to issue special bonds which are off budget, rather than going through the rigmarole of increasing this year’s budget deficit,” said SmartKarma’s Malik. Markets will now be closely watching for further fiscal stimulus to support consumption and investment. “In addition, given the onset of winter, construction projects need to be started quickly. We fully expect there to be further issuance of ultra-long special bonds,” Malik added. Investors watching for signs of China's next policy moves now have three key dates circled on their calendars. In late October, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) is scheduled to meet in late October. Meanwhile, China’s Q3 GDP is slated for release on 18 October; while country’s Politburo is due to meet early December, leading to the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC). The CEWC is a pivotal annual meeting in China during which country's economic agenda is set for the upcoming year. The conference typically takes place over two to three days in December. CHINA 2025 GROWTH TO SLOW DESPITE STIMULUS – WB Economic growth in China is projected to slow to 4.3% next year from 4.8% in 2024 despite economic stimulus measures that China introduced in September, the World Bank warned in a report on 7 October. This is due in part to low consumer and investor confidence, property market weakness, an ageing population and global tensions, the multilateral institution said. “Recently signalled fiscal support may lift short-term growth but longer-term growth will depend on deeper structural reforms,” the World Bank said. “China has led growth in the region for more than three decades, but its relative growth is likely to slow down in future,” it added. Insight article by Nurluqman Suratman With contributions from Jonathan Yee ($1 = CNY7.07)

09-Oct-2024

EPCA ’24: Fundamental change still potentially ahead for chemicals industry

LONDON (ICIS)–Massive overcapacity along some value chains is likely to drive further fundamental shifts in the global chemicals landscape, with differentiation and innovation key to remaining competitive. Slow demand in lengthy trough cycle conditions and the massive ramp-ups in production capacity seen in China since the start of the 2020s have left economics ”almost unsustainable” in some cases, according to Ketan Joshi, president for intermediates at BASF and member of the European Petrochemicals Association (EPCA)’s board of directors. “In several value chains, the overcapacities built up in China make the situation in China almost unsustainable when it comes to economics, which I assume will trigger some fundamental changes in the markets globally,” he said. “Differentiation and competitive offerings will be imperative for survival.” The radically changed competitive conditions for heavy industry in Europe relative to elsewhere in the world has highlighted the sluggishness of some industrial players to adapt to the new conditions. “I do believe that manufacturing industry in Europe became complacent to a certain extent in the past decade, so it is now really about trying to get back that innovation spirit,” he said. “If you talk about what the industry can do, then this is what the industry has in its own hand to drive, to differentiate and create a compelling value proposition for customers,” he added. BASF has taken a detailed look at its operations, particularly those in its Verbund site in Ludwigshafen, over the course of this year. Following the announcement in August of the closure of its Ludwigshafen adipic acid plant and several units, in the wake of a complete evaluation of the prospects for all units at the complex, further measures could yet be taken. The results of that deep dive were fairly promising, with 78% of Ludwigshafen production plants deemed competitive, while 16% were evaluated as facing short- to mid-term competitive risks and 6% seen as less competitive in the future, according to site director Katja Scharpwinkel. While the bulk of the company’s assets at its home based have been judged to be competitive, the current global market remains a challenging one, with manufacturing productivity continuing bearish and demand upticks still fairly minor. The most recent purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for the eurozone shows manufacturing hitting a seven-month low in September, with conditions in Germany especially challenging, and the service sector also showing more marked signs of a slowdown. Chemicals demand slightly outpaced the general industrial market in the first half of the year, according to data from industry body Cefic, but remains substantially below recovery levels. BASF itself has guided for a slow recovery, with no big step changes in the subdued upward demand curve, and conditions remain challenging for intermediates. “From an intermediates perspective, it's been a challenging year, with demand developments remaining uncertain until the end of 2024, and no clear sign of any broad recovery. Customers continue to buy very cautiously, mainly keeping inventories very low, and competitive pressure stays high,” Joshi said. “Geopolitical uncertainties are driving large fluctuations in basic commodities, which I think is a major driver in markets at present, and that poses a major challenge for capex-heavy industries to really make decisions,” he added. While the macroeconomic picture is crucial to allow for a stronger rebound, companies need to adapt and innovate to meet the current challenges, he added. “To galvanize a broad recovery, several factors are necessary:  stable economic conditions play a crucial role in boosting investment, and increasing consumer confidence is necessary to drive consumption and spending,” he said. “But also continued innovation is vital to meet the evolving customer needs, and that is really what is required to stay competitive in the market.” “Traditionally, Europe led the industry in innovation, so it is important to get back the focus,” he added. Decarbonising production and offering a wider range of sustainable solutions will be core differentiators for the manufacturing sector, particularly as consumer tastes continue to evolve, according to Joshi. Strong pushes on research and scaling up production capacities for new markets and new products are difficult when producers are moving to aggressively cut costs and financing costs remain high. Many European countries, including Germany, have slipped down the international rankings of research and development spending and innovation, and the prospect of making big financial bets when markets are still forming remains a daunting prospect. “Without a doubt, moving towards more sustainability requires additional effort across the board. As I said, it cannot be an individual thing,” Joshi said. The European Parliament seems at present to be attempting to adapt to that challenge, without committing to the kinds of green subsidy frameworks seen in the US. Re-elected president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has promised a clean industrial deal, and to cut red tape around permitting, although the pushback faced by BASF for its proposed cathode active materials plant in Finland and INEOS’ new cracker in Antwerp shows the continuing difficulty of building new production in the EU. While the policy specifics are still to be unveiled, the pronouncements by the new parliament are promising, according to Joshi, but permitting remains a real issue in Europe. “Right now, over 80 gigawatt of forthcoming wind capacity is stuck in lengthy permitting process in Europe, and eight times more that of solar energy capacity is in the permitting process compared to what is under construction,” he said. The ambition of the Commission’s targets, both for carbon reduction and for the use of non-fossil fuels and feedstocks, has been stymied to an extent by the continual revision of those goals, making it difficult for companies to commit to specific plans. The chemicals sector has one investment cycle left before the 2030 decarbonisation targets of a 55% reduction in carbon emissions compared to 1990 come into effect. The fact that new large-scale revisions to green industrial policy are still being drafted makes deploying that capital a challenge. “When ambitious targets regarding plastic recycling and accepted recycling technologies are reviewed again and again by governments, parliaments and regulatory authorities, it creates huge uncertainty in the chemical industry and delays investments,” he said. “We need a consistent policy, and we need those policies to stick to what the industry has already embarked into, so that the investments can happen,” he added. The roadmap for the evolution of the circular economy is also yet to be written for the chemicals sector. Companies looking at new markets often use acquisitions as a way in, but owning waste recycling infrastructure does not necessarily make sense for a chemical producer. Greater collaboration along these new value chains is necessary, and not all early steps may prove in hindsight to have been the best-optimised choices. The important thing is to start to make those steps, according to Joshi. “We cannot just aim for perfect solutions from the outset. We need to start implementing things and then improve as we go forward,” he said. “Partnership with waste suppliers, brand owners, technology leaders, will be required, because not everything can be done by a single player in the industry,” he added. The EPCA assembly runs until 10 October. Interview article by Tom Brown Thumbnail image source: Shutterstock

09-Oct-2024

China petrochemical futures retreat on demand worries

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures tumbled on Wednesday morning as a lack of further economic stimulus measures from the government left investors worrying about demand. At the end of the morning session, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and paraxylene (PX) futures led the slump, with losses ranging from 2.4-3.5%. Market sentiment was also weighed down by crude oil’s plunge overnight, in which both Brent and WTI benchmarks shed more than $3/bbl. In physical markets, spot transactions were sluggish at most petrochemicals, including acetone, butadiene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, upon resumption of trade due to weak demand. China had a week-long National Day holiday on 1-7 October. Futures market gains in the previous session lost steam as market hopes for additional economic measures did not materialize. In a briefing on 8 October, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) – China’s top economic planner – provided no details on how to execute the aggressive measures announced in late September. Market players were initially expecting the government to adopt further fiscal measures to arrest the slowdown of the world’s second-biggest economy. ($1 = CNY7.07)

09-Oct-2024

Florida ports close as Hurricane Milton approaches Tampa fertilizer hub

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ports along Florida's Gulf Coast are closed to vessel traffic as Milton approaches the state's fertilizer hub in Tampa as a Category 4 hurricane. Port Tampa Bay and the nearby SeaPort Manatee have set Port Condition Zulu, which means that they are shut down to inbound and outbound vessel traffic. The following table shows the conditions of some of the ports in Florida. Port Status Condition SeaPort Manatee Closed Zulu Port Tampa Bay Closed Zulu PortMiami Open Yankee Port Everglades Open Yankee Port of Palm Beach Open Yankee Fort Pierce Open Yankee Port Canaveral Open Yankee Jaxport Open Yankee Port of Fernandina Open Yankee Source: Ports, US Coast Guard LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAYMilton is expected to make landfall on Wednesday near Tampa, Florida, after weakening to a Category 3 hurricane, according to the meteorological firm AccuWeather. Milton will remain a major hurricane when it makes landfall, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 111-129 miles/hour (178-208 km/hour). The following map shows the expected path of Milton Source: National Hurricane Center IMPACT ON FERTILIZERS, PHOSPHATES, CHEMSFor chemicals, there is some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and unsaturated polyester resin production in Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida. Both are near Tampa. Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola, Florida, which has plants that make nylon and thermoset resins. Tampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer industry, hosting corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Fertilizer producer Mosaic has its headquarters in Tampa. The company has not issued any statements regarding its corporate operations. A source at the fertilizer company Yara said it was shutting down its Tampa offices to comply with the evacuation orders. Near Tampa is Florida's phosphate mining operations in Bone Valley, which covers parts of Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties. In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of which nine are active, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien has yet to restart its White Springs phosphate operations following Helene, an earlier hurricane that made landfall farther north in Florida's Big Bend region. On 30 September, Mosaic said its Riverview operations were offline following water intrusion from a storm surge caused by Hurricane Helene. RAIL CONTINUES RUNNINGOn 7 October, CSX said it is maintaining normal operations at its yards and terminals. Meanwhile, the railroad company is putting its safety protocols in place. Also on 7 October, Norfolk Southern warned customers to prepare for delays if they have shipments moving through the southeastern US. RECONSTRUCTION FOLLOWING MILTONHurricane Milton could be extremely destructive because of its winds, rainfall and storm surge. It will pass over the following metropolitan statistical areas. Region Population Tampa 3,342,963 Orlando 2,817,933 Jacksonville 1,713,240 Sarasota 910,108 Source: US Census Bureau Tampa and Sarasota could suffer storm surges of 10-15 feet (3.0-4.6 meters), according to the National Hurricane Center. Storm surges of 3-5 feet could hit the areas from Port Canaveral northwards, including Jacksonville, Florida. AccuWeather warned that the hardest hit areas could have storm surges of 23 feet. "We are very concerned that Hurricane Milton could become one of the most damaging and costliest storms that Florida has ever seen," said Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist. “Our forecast for 120 miles per hour to 140 miles per hour wind gusts will result in significant destruction. We expect roofs to fail, as well as long-lasting and widespread power outages. These damaging winds will push inland right along the Interstate 4 corridor,” For hurricanes in general, reconstruction can translate to increased demand for many chemicals and polymers. The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used in paints. Solvents used in paints and coatings include butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate (butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA). Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are also used to make paints and coatings. For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation. Polyurethanes are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols. High density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in pipe. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make cladding, window frames, wires and cables, flooring and roofing membranes. Unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) are used to make coatings and composites. Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make paints and adhesives. POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTION TO GULF OILHurricane Helene disrupted US oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico even though it passed through the eastern portion of the body of water. Hurricane Milton could have the same potential as it approaches the US. Additional reporting by Mark Milam Thumbnail shows Hurricane Milton. Image by National Hurricane Center.

08-Oct-2024

Covestro invests €100m in R&D in the three years to 2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Covestro will have invested around €100 million in its research and development (R&D) infrastructure and assets over the three years to 2025, the high-performance materials producer said on Tuesday. The investments include ‘direct coating’ technology for the automotive sector, and high-performance computers which can simulate chemical processes to develop recycling capability. Covestro has also enhanced its infrastructure and global sites in Leverkusen, Germany, Pittsburgh in the US and Shanghai in China. “Our investments in R&D are integral to our strategy of creating value for our customers. They are enabling us to expand and maintain our innovation pipeline at a high level,” said Sucheta Govil, Covestro chief commercial officer. Last week, Abu Dhabi state oil and petrochemicals player ADNOC launched a public takeover offer for Covestro, representing an equity value of €11.7 billion.

08-Oct-2024

Hurricane Milton on track to hit US fertilizer hub in Tampa

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Milton strengthened on Monday into a powerful Category 4 hurricane, and it is expected to continue strengthening before making landfall by midweek near Tampa, Florida, a major fertilizer hub that was drenched by an earlier major hurricane. That earlier hurricane, Helene, made landfall on September 26 far to the north of Tampa. However, Tampa still saw storm surges of 6-10 feet (1.8-3.0 meters), according to AccuWeather, a meteorology firm. Tampa and other ports along Florida's Gulf Coast had shut down because of Helene. AccuWeather estimates that Hurricane Helene caused $225 billion to $250 billion of damage and economic loss in Florida and the southeastern US. As of September 30, fertilizer companies were assessing the damage caused by Hurricane Helene. A week later, they will now prepare for another major hurricane that will pose a greater risk. AccuWeather is warning that, due to Milton, the Tampa Bay region could be hit by a storm surge of 10-15 feet, wind gusts of 120-140 miles/hour (193-225 miles/hour) and more than 2 feet (60 cm) of rain. "Milton may be a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians," said Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist. "Milton has the potential to become one of Florida's most damaging and costly hurricanes." For Tampa, the magnitude of Milton's storm surge will depend on its path, according to AccuWeather. If it makes landfall south of Tampa, it will cause dangerous, but not extreme, storm surges. If landfall is north of Tampa, parts of the Bay could suffer from storm surges of 20 feet, AccuWeather said. FERTILIZER HUB, PHOSPHATES AT RISKTampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer industry, hosting corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations. Near Tampa is Florida's phosphate mining operations in Bone Valley, which covers parts of Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties. In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of which nine are active, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. For chemicals, there is some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and unsaturated polyester resin production in Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida. Both are near Tampa. Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola, Florida, which has plants that make nylon and thermoset resins. PORT TAMPA BAY REMAINS OPENPort Tampa Bay remains open to inbound and outbound vessel traffic, but it has set Port Condition X-RAY. That means gale force winds that could disrupt maritime operations could occur in the next 48 hours. SeaPort Manatee, a deepwater port on Tampa Bay, also set Port Condition X-Ray. It handled bulk, breakbulk and container traffic. RAIL STILL RECOVERING FROM HELENEOn October 4, railroad company CSX warned customers to expect delays despite progress in restoring power and clearing trees. Disruptions to operations are concentrated in the Carolinas. Railroad company Norfolk Southern said it has already started monitoring Hurricane Milton, although its lines are operating as scheduled. POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTION TO GULF OILHurricane Helene disrupted US oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico even though it passed through the eastern portion of the body of water. Hurricane Milton could have the same potential as it approaches the US. RECONSTRUCTION DEMAND FOR CHEMSFor hurricanes in general, reconstruction can translate to increased demand for many chemicals and polymers. The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used in paints. Solvents used in paints and coatings include butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate (butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA). Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are also used to make paints and coatings. For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation. Polyurethanes are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols. High density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in pipe. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make cladding, window frames, wires and cables, flooring and roofing membranes. Unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) are used to make coatings and composites. Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make paints and adhesives. Thumbnail shows the forecasts path of Hurricane Milton. Image by the National Hurricane Center.

07-Oct-2024

Europe top stories: weekly summary

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 4 October. No signs of petchems demand recovery from car sector on the horizon, H2 2025 may be a moment of truth After a strong rebound in car sales last year, the European automotive industry is facing a more challenging environment in the second half of 2024, leading to a drop in petrochemical requirements from car manufacturers. LANXESS exits polymers via sale of urethane business to Japan’s UBE LANXESS is selling its urethane systems business to Japanese chemicals producer UBE Corp for around €500 million, the German specialty chemicals firm said on Thursday. Europe recycled polyolefin agglomerates prices face downward pressure Europe recycled polyolefin agglomerate prices are facing downward pressure due to weak demand from mechanical recyclers. ADNOC makes public takeover offer for Germany’s Covestro Abu Dhabi state oil and petrochemicals player ADNOC has launched a public takeover offer for Germany-based producer isocyanates, polycarbonates and adhesives specialist Covestro, representing an equity value of €11.7 billion. Bold policy moves might not arrest China economic slowdown In a bold move to revitalize its economy and restore investor confidence, China unveiled a comprehensive package of monetary and fiscal measures less than a week before the country goes on a week-long holiday.

07-Oct-2024

PODCAST: UAE base oils may see higher Q4 imports; US Group II offers keenly awaited

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The base oils market in UAE is likely to see an uptick in demand in the fourth quarter, with the impact of escalating tensions in the region on crude prices and Group I supply from Iran closely monitored in the weeks ahead. Impact of regional conflict on spot Group I supply from Iran to emerge Group II export offers from the US awaited to offer clearer near-term market direction Persistent crude volatility may temper base oils uptake Currency woes in Africa may undermine finished lube exports In this podcast, ICIS editor Damini Dabholkar and senior editor Veena Pathare discuss recent market conditions and the outlook for the UAE.

07-Oct-2024

MOVES: US Intrepid Potash announces Jornayvaz steps down as CEO

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US fertilizer producer Intrepid Potash announced that Bob Jornayvaz has stepped down as Chief Executive Officer and as a director of the board following his extended medical leave of absence. The Denver-based producer had previously announced Jornayvaz was injured in an accident while playing in the US Open Polo Championship in April and was on extended medical leave of absence. “We are thankful to Bob for his immeasurable contributions to the company over the last two decades,” said Barth Whitham, Chair of the Board. “Bob led numerous initiatives that strengthened our customer relationships, modernized our operations, and capitalized on our unique position as the only domestic producer of potash. He took great pride in the company and its contributions to the domestic and global agriculture industry. Bob and his family remain in our thoughts, and we continue to wish him well in his recovery.” Intrepid said their Chief Financial Officer Matt Preston will continue to serve as acting principal executive officer as the Board of Directors’ search to identify and select a new CEO. “The board’s search for a CEO is well underway. In the interim, we are pleased to continue to have Matt and the rest of the management team lead the execution of Intrepid’s strategic plan,” Whitham said. Intrepid is the only US producer of muriate of potash and also delivers volumes of magnesium, sulfur, salt and water products for use in not only agriculture and for animal feed, but also within the oil and gas industry.

04-Oct-2024

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