Ethylene

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Typhoon Gaemi made landfall on Taiwan’s eastern coast shortly before midnight on 24 July, bringing fierce winds and heavy rains to vast swathes of the island, with the Mailiao port remaining closed on Thursday. Financial markets and workplaces are also closed for a second consecutive day. Operations at the Mailiao port are expected to resume on 26 July after a three-day shutdown, according to market sources with direct knowledge of the matter. The port is operated by Taiwanese major Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) which primarily serves the company’s Mailiao refinery and petrochemical complex. The closure of Mailiao port is a precautionary measure taken for operational safety, according to a Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) source, adding that operations at the company's ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) plant in Mailiao were normal. Taiwan's major petrochemical complexes are in Toufen and Mailiao in the northwest; and Ta-sheh and Linyuan in Kaohsiung City in the south. Authorities in Taiwan have reported two weather-related fatalities and more than 200 others injured as the storm approached. Officials have evacuated more than 8,000 people across at-risk areas of the country. Prior to making landfall near Hualien County, Taiwanese authorities categorized Gaemi as a "severe typhoon," the highest level on their three-tier scale. This marked the first severe typhoon to hit the island since 2016. The storm has since weakened as it moved inland. At 08:30 local time (00:30 GMT), Gaemi was 80 kilometres northwest of Hsinchu, packing maximum winds of 90 kiometres/hour, Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) said in its latest update. A typhoon warning is in effect for Nantou, Chiayi, Chiayi City, Keelung City, Yilan, Changhua, New Taipei City, Hsinchu, Hsinchu City, Taoyuan City, Penghu, Taichung City, Taipei City, Tainan City, Taitung, Hualien, Miaoli, Kinmen, Yunlin, Lienchiang and Kaohsiung City, the CWA said. Over 4,000 people living in in northern regions, especially Hualien, were evacuated due to the storm. Hualien, a mountainous area prone to landslides, was also severely affected by a 7.2-magnitude earthquake earlier this year. Gaemi is expected to make its way across the Taiwan Strait towards Fujian and Zhejiang later on Thursday, with a red storm alert currently in place in both these provinces in southern China. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has issued a red typhoon warning, the highest level of alert, for strong winds expected in seas off the southeastern coast and coastal areas of Fujian and southern Zhejiang provinces. The Fujian Maritime Safety Administration has launched a Level I emergency response, the highest alert, in anticipation of Gaemi’s arrival, according to crisis management firm Crisis24. Ports have been closed and vessels have been ordered to return to shore, it said. Thumbnail photo shows the location of Typhoon Gaemi at 04:30 GMT on 25 July (Source: zoom.earth) Additional reporting by Angeline Soh, Helen Lee and Samuel Wong

25-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Mexican petrochemicals have much to gain under President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum as the country taps into the nearshoring trend, which will require large public and private investments, according to an executive at polymers producer Braskem Idesa. Sergio Plata, head of institutional relations and communications at the mostly polyethylene (PE) producer, added that nearshoring – North American companies bringing back to the region production facilities – will require a large country effort, which the public sector alone now dominates the energy sector, will not be able to provide. Plata added that the first signs from Sheinbaum towards chemicals were encouraging: even as President-Elect, she has already visited the petrochemicals production hub in the state of Veracruz – the largest in the country. In it, she mentioned specific industry issues such as supply of certain raw materials which were very much welcomed by executives. Last week, ICIS published the first part of this interview, in which Plata said supply of ethane from Mexico’s state-owned crude oil major Pemex had stabilized after a renegotiation of the contract’s terms, although he added global PE market remained in the doldrums and a recovery may not arrive until the second half of 2025. Braskem Idesa operates the Ethylene XXI complex in Coatzacoalcos, south of the industrial state of Veracruz, which has capacity to produce 1.05 million tonnes/year of ethylene and downstream capacities of 750,000 tonnes/year for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and 300,000 tonnes/year for low-density polyethylene (LDPE). Braskem Idesa is a joint venture made up of Brazil’s polymers major Braskem (75%) and Mexican chemical producer Grupo Idesa (25%). WHAT SORT OF PRESIDENT SHE WILL BESheinbaum won an overwhelming majority in the Presidential election in June, with 60% of the vote, and her party Morena achieved a ‘supermajority’ in parliament of two-thirds which initially spooked financial markets and brought the Mexican peso down. Financial analysts have warned that, for Mexico to tap into the nearshoring trend, its infrastructure – transport but also aged electricity transmission lines – will need to be upgraded during the remaining of this decade. That effort, most analysts agree, will only be possible with large sums of private investment, so the state-owned electricity utility CFE may need to give some way to private players. Equally, during Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s term, Mexico’s emissions rose, in opposition to the country’s commitments agreed in the 2015 Paris Accord and later enshrined into its domestic law. Lopez Obrador handpicked Sheinbaum to succeed him. Despite not being that apart generationally – he is 70, she is 62 – the President-Elect is a climate scientist who started her career in environmental roles, and most analysts think she may run free from her successor – by personal choice or forced by the circumstances – in issues like climate, if she wants to keep Mexico as a respected economy which fulfils its commitments. “I think she has a very clear vision in this regard – she knows the commitments [Mexico adhered to]. Something we are liking a lot is the appointments she is making – people with experience to work in the departments they are being appointed to: they have the necessary technical knowledge,” said Plata. “We have also seen her approaching the private sector and that, without a doubt, for us as an industry that is a very good start. In those meetings, our concerns about compliance with regulations have been raised. Something is very clear: to grasp the opportunities in nearshoring, collaboration with private sector is essential to bring real benefits to all Mexicans.” Plata said that, while Sheinbaum has not met Braskem Idesa yet, she has had a busy schedule meeting with industrialists, including with the country’s chemicals trade group Aniq as well as the Veracruz industrial trade group, which Plata presides. “When she visited the south of Veracruz, she talked about reactivating the petrochemical industry, and talked about very specific issues that the industry is worried about, such production of ethane, of ethylene, of ammonia: things that sounded very good to us,” said Plata. MEXICO, VENEZUELA COMPARISONSHe was asked if, given Morena’s ‘supermajority’ in parliament, Mexico could become a new Venezuela – when the governing party takes over all resorts of power and the country stops being a democracy worth the name. “I really believe that her vision is constructive, and she intends to work with the private sector so her Administration can work for everyone. We will have to see what decisions she takes along the way. For instance, she has spoken many times about the interoceanic corridor [a project to link Mexico’s east and west coasts by water],” said Plata. “Precisely, the promotion of the corridor has at its base the chemicals and the petrochemicals industries, because one of the objectives of the corridor is to take advantage of the raw materials in the area, which would benefit petrochemicals but also agriculture, for instance, and give added value. We see plenty of opportunities there.” Front page picture: Braskem Idesa’s facilities in Coatzacoalcos Source: Braskem Idesa Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

22-Jul-2024

MADRID (ICIS)–Supply of ethane from Pemex to polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa is now more stable after a renegotiation of the contract – but the global PE market remains in the doldrums, according to an executive at the Mexican firm. Sergio Plata, head of institutional relations and communications at Braskem Idesa, said a recovery in global PE prices could start in the second half of 2025 as the market is expected to remain oversupplied in the coming quarters. Plata explained how Braskem Idesa had to renegotiate the terms of an agreement with Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned crude oil major, for the supply of natural gas-based ethane, one of the routes to produce PE, to its facilities in Coatzacoalcos. Supply is now more stable and in the quantities agreed, he said. Braskem Idesa operates the Ethylene XXI complex in Coatzacoalcos, south of the industrial state of Veracruz, which has capacity to produce 1.05 million tonnes/year of ethylene and downstream capacities of 750,000 tonnes/year for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and 300,000 tonnes/year for low-density polyethylene (LDPE). Braskem Idesa is a joint venture made up of Brazil’s polymers major Braskem (75%) and Mexican chemical producer Grupo Idesa (25%). ETHANE FLOWING, TERMINAL IN Q1 2025 Pemex agreed with Braskem Idesa to supply the PE producer with a minimum volume of 30,000 barrels/day of ethane until the beginning of 2025, when Braskem Idesa plans to start up an import terminal in Coatzacoalcos to allow it to tap into exports out of the US Gulf Coast. However, both parties sat to renegotiate that agreement after Pemex’s supply proved to be unstable, with credit rating agencies such as Fitch warning in 2023 of the “operational risk” such a deal with the state-owned major represented for Braskem Idesa. The outcome of the renegotiation is starting to bear fruit, explained Plata diplomatically, without providing any details. He conceded, however, that to outsiders, Pemex’s businesses could look rather odd. “We understand the positions of a public entity such as Pemex, and we understand its methods could look questionable to eyes outside our relationship,” said Plata. “However, at Braskem Idesa we were confident that if we sat down with them to renegotiate, clearly stating what we require from each other, we could reach a point in the renegotiation which worked for us as a company and for the Mexican petrochemicals sector as a whole.” Together with more stable supply from Pemex, Braskem Idesa also adopted the so-called Fast Track to import ethane while its own import terminal starts up. The terminal, known as Terminal Quimica Puerto Mexico (TQPM), closed the last financing details at the end of 2023. Plata said the terminal would start up “without a doubt” by the beginning of 2025, adding that construction was 70% complete by the beginning of July. According to Plata, with Pemex’s more stable ethane supply and the Fast Track system, Braskem Idesa is operating at 70-75% capacity utilization. PE MARKET WOES As a PE producer, Braskem Idesa remains exposed to the global downturn in polymers prices due to oversupplies. Plata said the downturn has been a “very hard” period for polymers producers, who may still face 12 more months of downturn. In its latest financial statement for the first quarter, Braskem Idesa’s sales fell by 2%, year on year, and the company posted a net loss. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose. Braskem Idesa (in $ million) Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Change Q4 2023 Change Q1 2024 vs Q4 2024 Sales 229 234 -2% 199 15% Net profit/loss -85 1 N/A -101 -16% EBITDA 36 26 36% 26 39% PE sales volumes (in tonnes) 205,500 195,100 5.4% 174,500 17.8% “We have had a very complex environment, with increased capacities in the US or China and with the war in Ukraine raising our production costs. We are undoubtedly in a down cycle and as a company we have tried to take care of our margins by controlling our costs and look closely at our investments,” said Plata. He said he “would not have the answer” about what to do with China’s dumping of product around the world, a fact that in Brazil, the largest Latin American economy, has prompted chemicals trade group Abiquim to lobby hard for higher import tariffs in polymers, as well as dozens of other chemicals. “Market analysts predict the current cycle may come to an end in the second half of 2025. Let’s hope so… This has been such a long crisis, aggravated by external factors such as wars and global convulsions, which undoubtedly also affect the industry, and the environment remains very uncertain.” Front page picture: Braskem Idesa’s facilities in Coatzacoalcos Source: Braskem Idesa Interview article by Jonathan Lopez Next week, ICIS will publish the second part of the interview with Plata, with his views on the challenges and opportunities for the chemicals and manufacturing sectors under the upcoming Administration led by President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum amid the nearshoring trend

18-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, Asia ethylene editor Josh Quah and analyst Aliena Huang discuss the factors impacting arbitrage flows of ethylene from the US to Asia. Spot arbitrage window between US and Asia closed but term arrivals for July remain healthy Storm Beryl, low affordability in Asia, may keep spot arbitrage trades closed into Aug Panama Canal traffic levels expected to return to pre-congestion levels by Oct

18-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 12 July. Europe ethylene spot prices turn firmer on demand, feedstock, looming cracker turnarounds European ethylene spot prices have firmed week on week on the back of better-than-expected demand amid higher feedstock values and an increasing focus on upcoming planned cracker maintenance outages. Global crude demand slows in Q2, China consumption contracts – IEA Global crude oil demand slumped to 710,000 bbl/day in Q2 2024 as China’s post-pandemic economic rebound ran its course, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. Storm Beryl damage, economic loss to US estimated at $28-32 billion Total damage and economic loss in the US from Storm Beryl amounted to $28-32 billion, according to meteorology firm AccuWeather. Europe chemicals players expect construction demand to remain sluggish until H1 2025 Chemicals players in Europe do not expect any substantial recovery from the building and construction industry until the first half of 2025 at least. Flooding to continue across central US as Beryl moves inland Flash flooding is expected as Storm Beryl continues to progress across the central US, with blackouts and logistic shutdowns seen in parts of Texas. ‘Life-threatening’ storm surge in Texas as Hurricane Beryl makes US landfall Hurricane Beryl has made landfall in eastern Texas and looks set to batter parts of the state’s key petrochemicals production hubs, with the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) warning of a life-threatening storm surge on Monday.

15-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 12 July 2024. OUTLOOK: Asia naphtha market braces for supply uncertainties By Li Peng Seng 12-Jul-24 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s naphtha market sentiment is expected to be choppy in the short term due to a lack of clarity on arbitrage supplies against volatile demand. OUTLOOK: Asia EVA market loses shine as demand from PV sector lags By Helen Lee 11-Jul-24 11:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Demand for ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) from China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry is likely to remain lackluster amid an oversupply in the entire industry chain. PODCAST: China to accelerate hydrogen development via energy law By Patricia Tao 10-Jul-24 11:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's recent decision to include hydrogen in its draft national energy law signals a transformative shift in the country's energy landscape. China EV giant BYD to invest $1 billion in Turkey production plant By Nurluqman Suratman 09-Jul-24 15:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD has agreed to invest $1 billion to set up a manufacturing plant in Turkey which will produce up to 150,000 vehicles per year. PODCAST: Asia recycling market sees increased interest in pyrolysis By Damini Dabholkar 09-Jul-24 11:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Market players in Asia are increasingly becoming more interested in the use of pyrolysis oil as fuel. OUTLOOK: SE Asia PE to see some demand recovery in H2, challenges persist By Izham Ahmad 09-Jul-24 15:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) market is expected to face modest demand recovery in the second half (H2) of the year, but this is likely to be negated by increased supply and the threat of high freight costs affecting import shipments.

15-Jul-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–European ethylene spot prices have firmed week on week on the back of better-than-expected demand amid higher feedstock values and an increasing focus on upcoming planned cracker maintenance outages. Spot deals this week have been reported at discounts of 32-35% on the pipeline, prior deals had been at discounts of around 38-39%. Producers say they have received several requests for additional volume offtakes in July. This is being attributed to a combination of factors: Improved sentiment from domestic PVC players following the imposition of tariffs on imports ex-Egypt and the US Continued high container freight rates which are restricting some derivative imports Recent hurricane-related production and logistics disruptions ex-US Firmer month-on-month naphtha values which is likely to drive discussions for the August contract reference price settlement Planned cracker maintenance due to get underway from September particularly that due in Germany with alternative supply flexibility likely to be limited at that time due to pressure issues on the ARG pipeline. With crackers having been run at rates closely aligned with contractual demand – still very much below normal albeit better than in 2023 – there is not too much flexibility for additional volumes at short notice. “Many will have assumed that ethylene supply would always be plentiful,” a source said, “and now they find that it is not the case.” Cracker operators have avoided as far as possible marginal tonne production as spot appetite has been extremely low unless at deep discounts to the prevailing contract price. Crackers are underutilised, so in theory, there is space to ramp up. But with August around the corner and few indications at this stage how long this better-than-expected demand will be sustained, sources assume producers will be reluctant to ramp up production in July. Thumbnail photo: Flooding in Houston, Texas, in the wake of Hurricane Beryl on 8 July 2024, one of the causes of firming ethylene prices. Source: Carlos Ramirez/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

12-Jul-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Climate change and warming oceans mean that the US Gulf Coast chemical sector will have to adapt to more frequent weather events such as Hurricane Beryl. Gulf Coast area where Hurricane Beryl made landfall houses 13m tonnes, 29% of US ethylene production capacity Beryl is earliest Category five hurricane on record; busy season forecast Warming oceans mean there may be double the number of severe hurricanes Energy, chemical industries must adapt to cope with more weather events Move towards net zero carbon gives opportunity to relocate plants, infrastructure In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Business Solutions Group senior executive Nigel Davis and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

09-Jul-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 5 July 2024. OUTLOOK: Snug import supply supports Asia MEG amid slowing demand By Judith Wang 03-Jul-24 11:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Monoethylene glycol (MEG) import supply in Asia for July is expected to stay snug in the near term, while demand looks set to slow down. INSIGHT: Methanol or ethylene, that is the question for China By Doris He 02-Jul-24 17:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s methanol-to-olefins (MTO) industry has always been a focus of attention among methanol market players, as it accounts for half of overall demand. More attention has recently been shifted to ethylene, from the overall margins of a typical MTO plant in coastal regions. OUTLOOK: Asia nylon markets may slow down in H2 2024 on lengthened supply By Charmaine Lim 01-Jul-24 14:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Nylon markets in Asia are expected to slow in H2 2024 compared to the first half of the year as the upcoming seasonal lull in Q3 approaches, with new capacities planned to start up in China this year. S Korea antidumping probe on China SM extends to Sept, discussions and hearings ongoing By Luffy Wu 01-Jul-24 15:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Korea Trade Commission is continuing with its anti-dumping probe against styrene monomer (SM) imports from China, with some discussions and hearings between the government and market players heard ongoing. PODCAST: China oxo-alcohols to face supply-demand pressure, new capacity to be a focus By Claire Gao 01-Jul-24 19:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS analyst Claire Gao explores the oxo-alcohols market overview and outlook. OUTLOOK: Persistent economic woes dampen Asia chemical freight demand By Hwee Hwee Tan 02-Jul-24 12:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s chemical freight demand is dampened as macroeconomic doldrums were pulling back spot trades well into the third quarter despite reducing plant capacity losses for key liquid bulk products.

08-Jul-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl is expected to post a “slow re-intensification” as it heads towards the north and could potentially hit Texas’ industrial hub of Corpus Christi by Monday. On 4 July, the US National Hurricane Center had said Beryl had weakened from a category 5 hurricane to a category 3 and was expected to become a storm thereafter. However, on Friday, as the Hurricane brought havoc to Yucatan, the NHC said it could strengthen again once it hits sea waters, making it stronger as it heads to make another landfall in Texas. “Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend,” said the NHC on Friday morning. “Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected as Beryl moves farther inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today, but slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico.” Moreover, the Houston area – an eight-million-strong metropolitan area – could also now be subject to a significant impact, although analysts at Space City Weather said on Friday the impact “will be mostly manageable locally”. PETROCHEMICALS, ENERGYWhile the Altamira petrochemicals hub in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas was spare from the worse, industrial assets in Texas may not have the same luck. The current pathway projected by the NHC implies that Beryl would make landfall in Texas right in the Corpus Christi area, where major refining and petrochemical assets are located. In addition to being a refining and petrochemical hub, Corpus Christi is a major oil-exporting port and hosts a terminal that exports liquefied natural gas (LNG). If Beryl finally disrupts US LNG exports, that could have a knock-on effect on petrochemical prices by shutting down one of the eight LNG export terminals in the country. If the disruption lasted long enough, prices for natural gas would fall. Lower gas prices would drag down those for ethane, the main feedstock that US crackers use to produce ethylene. Petrochemical producers could benefit from lower feedstock costs. Meanwhile, as Beryl strengthens again, energy companies in Texas may choose to shut their plants as a precaution, as well as oil and gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico. Major US oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ports could also be touched by Beryl now, which could potentially cause major disruption in supplies. THE WEEKEND IS KEYSpace City Weather said that where Beryl ultimately makes landfall will depend on how far the high-pressure system is over the southern US retreats. The landfall location is “complicated by the contour of the South Texas coastline, which is very nearly north-south relative” to the Gulf of Mexico. “Regarding Houston, I would love to be able to tell you with certainty that Beryl will make landfall near or south of Corpus Christi. I truly think that will be the case. But as Beryl’s track has moved significantly in the last 24 hours that is not something I can guarantee you,” concluded analyst Eric Berger. Source: US National Hurricane Center

05-Jul-2024