Polypropylene (PP)
Versatility shaping the plastics industry
Discover the factors influencing polypropylene (PP) markets
With its unique properties and versatility, polypropylene (PP) is an invaluable global commodity, influencing key industries from packaging and automotive to electrical and household. Its ability to be manufactured into various end-uses such as plastic car parts and textiles has made PP an essential market to understand and navigate. Even the slightest change can have the most significant impact. This is why our experts are embedded in markets across the globe, monitoring, tracking and understanding developments affecting PP so you can make the best decisions with the right information.
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2024 APAC Plastics Midyear Outlook
In H2 2024, The Asian PP, PE and PET markets are all set to face unique challenges. Modest recovery is expected for PE, PP markets struggle with high costs and trade barriers, while PET grapples with supply cuts and demand slowdowns.
Polypropylene (PP) news
SHIPPING: Asia-USWC container rates edge higher on late-season holiday demand
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shipping container rates from east Asia and China to the US West Coast rose this week, reversing a trend that saw rates fall by almost 36% from July, as late-season holiday demand emerged. Many importers had pulled holiday volumes early to avoid any problems related to a US East Coast dock workers strike that was set to begin on 1 October. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said front-loading of volumes to the East Coast in September may have been stronger than to the West Coast due to the rush to beat the 1 October strike deadline. Supply chain advisors Drewry has Shanghai-USWC rates edging higher by less than 1% and said of the increase in spot rates ex-China that it expects this trend to continue as the Christmas rush intensifies. Drewry’s World Container Index showed average global rates rising, as shown in the following chart. Rates from Shanghai to Europe rose more dramatically than those from Shanghai to the US, as shown in the following chart from Drewry. Levine said the stronger front loading of volumes to the East Coast could explain the sharper drop of East Coast rates over the last few weeks, as well as the anomaly that saw East Coast rates fall below West Coast rates. Rates to the East Coast are typically about $1,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent units) higher than to the West Coast. Drewry still has East Coast rates about $400/FEU higher than West Coast rates. Levine noted that rates to both coasts are still $1,000-1,500/FEU above their April lows. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. EAST COAST LABOR UPDATE Union dock workers and US East Coast port operators will resume negotiations on a new master agreement in November, according to a joint statement from both parties. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing the dock workers, and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents the ports, reached a tentative agreement on 3 October that ended a three-day strike. The strike was paused until 15 January after parties agreed on the salary portion of the agreement, essentially meeting in the middle. Levine said port automation remains the major sticking point, and if there is no progress in the coming weeks anxious shippers may start increasing orders again ahead of another possible strike. CANADA WEST COAST PORT LABOR UNREST The British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA), which represents ports on Canada’s west coast, has issued formal notice of its intention to lock out port workers coastwide, starting Monday, 4 November at 8:00 local time, it said on Friday. On Canada’s east coast, dock workers at the Port of Montreal on Thursday, 31 October, went on an indefinite strike at two of the port’s four container terminals. The labor dispute is about automation at Dubai Ports World (Canada), as well as retirement benefits. The parties have been negotiating a new collective labor deal since the last one expired in March 2023. LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES STABLE US chemical tanker freight rates were largely unchanged this week for most trade lanes, while vessel demand continues to be soft for various routes. The USG to ARA remains soft and solid for contractual cargoes and any additional available CPP tonnage could continue to pressure the market even further. Similarly, that situation exists for volumes on the USG to the Caribbean and South America trade lanes. From the USG to these regions, space among regular carriers remains available, due to a lack of interest. However, for the USG to Asia spot volumes continues to be weak as there seems to be plenty of prompt space available. Mainly parcels of methanol to China seems to have provided any support to the weak market. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market in various directions. With additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten and Kevin Callahan Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page
01-Nov-2024
BLOG: Developing world outside China to the rescue, but not for long
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Understanding chemicals and polymers demand during the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle was easy, firstly, because demand always boomed and secondly, because these were the dominant factors shaping markets: Lots of young people moving to the cities in China to make goods for export followed by China’s enormous debt and speculation bubble from 2009 onwards, which was mainly centered on real estate. Now, as the future of demand growth is in the Developing World ex-China, we need to understand hundreds of different countries. Before you get carried away with excitement, ICIS analysis suggests this: Developing World ex-China demand cannot do anything over as long as perhaps the next seven years to substantially absorb all-time high levels of oversupply. Why the oversupply? Because too many people missed the build-up of demographic and debt challenges in China and didn’t react quickly enough when the 2021 Evergrande Moment arrived. This is a lesson for how we analyze the Developing World ex-China. Focusing on polypropylene (PP) as an example: Despite the Developing World ex-China's much bigger population of around six billion versus China's population of some 1.4 billion, ICIS still expects that by 2030, Developing World ex-China's demand will be some 8 million tonnes lower than China's. The ICIS base case assumes that global PP capacity exceeding demand will average 25 million tonnes a year in 2021-2024. This compares with just 5 million tonnes a year during the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle. Global operating rates averaged 87% in 1992-2023. But given this oversupply, our forecast for 2024-2030 is 77%. To achieve 87%, assuming our base case assumption for production is right (the same as demand), capacity would have to grow by an average 2.2m tonnes a year versus our base case of 4.8 million tonnes. As feedstock-advantaged producers such as those in the Middle East are likely to press ahead with projects, and as China may continue to add more capacity, capacity growth of 2.2 million tonnes a year implies closures of plants elsewhere. The ICIS base assumes 4% average annual PP demand growth in China in 2024-2030 when 2%, in my view, is more likely. If 2% growth were to happen, and demand growth in the other regions was the same as our base case, capacity growth would need to be just 1.4 million tonnes year to achieve an 87% operating rate in 2024-2030. Let’s next take 2% off Chinese growth and add this to our base case forecast for the Developing World ex-China. Capacity would still have to grow by just 1.9 million tonnes a year to achieve an 87% operating rate in 2024-2030 compared with, as mentioned earlier, our base case assumption of capacity growth of 4.8 million tonnes. While, as I said, the Developing World ex-China offers long-term big opportunities, we should keep in mind the words of Mark Twain: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.
01-Nov-2024
SHIPPING: Union, US East Coast ports to resume negotiations in November
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Union dock workers and US East Coast port operators will resume negotiations on a new master agreement in November, according to a joint statement from both parties. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing the dock workers, and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents the ports, reached a tentative agreement on 3 October that ended a three-day strike. The strike was paused until 15 January after parties agreed on the salary portion of the agreement, essentially meeting in the middle. But the union remains adamant against any full or partial automation at ports that could threaten union jobs. The respective negotiating committees will meet in New Jersey, where they will look to agree on terms for a new contract that can be presented to the full ILA Wage Scale Committee for approval, and later, to ILA membership for ratification, the statement said. “The ILA and USMX welcome the opportunity to return to the bargaining table and get a new agreement in place as soon as possible,” the parties said. The two sides will not discuss details of negotiations with the media prior to these meetings. IMPACTS TO CHEM MARKETS The short strike had some impact on the US chemicals industry, with polyethylene (PE) exports to Brazil being put on hold in the lead up to the work stoppage. The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry was concerned as all US Gulf PVC exports move out of one of the impacted East Coast ports. In the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market, imports of PET resins were diverted to the US West Coast in anticipation of the work stoppage. The dock workers do not handle liquid chemical tankers, as most terminals that handle liquid chemical tankers are privately owned and do not necessarily use union labor. Also, tankers do not require as much labor as container or dry cargo vessels, which must be loaded and unloaded with cranes and require labor for forklifts and trucks. But container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock
28-Oct-2024
Europe top stories: weekly summary
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 25 October. Sentiment in Europe jet fuel market dented by crude instability and soaring stocks Bearing the brunt of low demand and a supply overhang, sentiment in the European jet kerosene spot market has been further dulled by upstream Brent crude fluctuations and soaring regional stock levels hitting their highest since August 2021. Eni to close Versalis crackers, PE plant as it pivots to low carbon, specialty production with €2 billion investment Italy’s Eni plans to close its Versalis crackers at Brindisi and Priolo, plus a polyethylene (PE) site at Ragusa as it refocuses on low carbon and specialty chemical production through a €2 billion investment over the next five years. Dow to review Europe polyurethanes amid ‘increasing challenges’ of regulation Dow is set to review the competitiveness of several assets in Europe, particularly around its polyurethanes operations, amid “increasing challenges” presented by the region’s regulatory environment, CEO Jim Fitterling said in a Q3 results statement. Europe ECH prices dip for first time since January as raw material costs ease Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) freely negotiated contract prices have softened in October for the first time since January 2024 as propylene feedstocks costs ease in a muted and well supplied ECH market. INSIGHT: ‘Bridge’ countries bring new opportunities as global trade flows fragment – Bertschi Changing trade flows driven by increasing friction between China, the US and their allies mean there will be demand for new chemical logistics routes and infrastructure, according to the executive chairman of chemical logistics group Bertschi. Europe PE/PP October contracts down on monomer and stagnant demand European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) contracts have been agreed down slightly beyond the monomer drop for October.
28-Oct-2024
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates fall as carriers eye blank sailings to keep floor on prices
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US fell this week, but carriers have announced an increase in blank sailings so they can tighten capacity and maintain a floor on prices. Rates have been falling steadily since July as importers pulled forward peak season volumes to get ahead of the dock workers strike at East Coast and US Gulf ports. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said some carriers added blank sailings on Asia-to-US routes. Last week, Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) announced four blank sailings on its Asia-USEC 2M service, citing ongoing congestion at some ports related to the brief work stoppage. Levine said the action could also be to maintain a floor on rates. Global average rates fell by 4% and are just above $3,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates to the East Coast fell by 6.1% to around $5,200/FEU, with rates to the West Coast falling by 2.6% to around $4,800/FEU, as shown in the following chart. Transpacific rates are now about 30% below the July peak, and Levine expects them to continue to soften as the market is in a slow period between the end of the Christmas holiday peak season and the Lunar New Year. “As long as Red Sea diversions continue to absorb capacity on an industry level, prices may not fall much further than seen back in April,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES FLAT TO LOWER Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were softer this week for several trade lanes, in particular the USG-to-Brazil and USG-Asia trade lanes as spot tonnage remains readily available. There has been limited spot activity to both regions and COA nominations are taking longer than usual. The vessel owners have tried to delay the sailings but there has been very little spot interest in the market leaving no other options for full cargoes and in turn impacting spot rates. On the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was ample space available, which readily absorbed the few fresh inquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Med as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan
25-Oct-2024
FAKUMA ’24 PODCAST: Mixture of pessimism, cautious optimism for 2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Markets Editor Stephanie Wix is joined by Senior Editor Manager Vicky Ellis, markets reporter Meeta Ramnani, and Senior Analyst Jincy Varghese, as they discuss the key trends from the 29th Fakuma plastics processing trade fair in Friedrichshafen, Germany, in this latest ICIS podcast. They explore discussion topics heard at the event last week, from the highest concerns to the lowest expectations. They also explain the clash of pessimism and optimism between markets including acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polycarbonate (PC), polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), and also engineering plastics polyacetal (POM) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT).
22-Oct-2024
PODCAST: Macroeconomic pressure continues to weigh on Asia recycling sentiment
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The short-term demand outlook for recycled polymers from Asia remains sluggish especially for low-value grades, mainly due to poor economics and brand users’ preference of cheaper virgin plastics. Upcoming regulation in deep-sea regions fails to support Asia recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) exports Asia recycled polyethylene (rPE), recycled polypropylene (rPP) remain traded mostly in domestic markets Investments into recycling continue across Asia despite weak demand In this chemical podcast, ICIS senior editor Arianne Perez discusses recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.
22-Oct-2024
Latin America stories: weekly summary
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 18 October. NEWSArgentina’s Rio Tercero shuts TDI plant on global oversupply Petroquimica Rio Tercero has shut its toluene di-isocyanate (TDI) plant in Cordoba on the back of global oversupply, a spokesperson for the Argentinian producer confirmed to ICIS on Tuesday. Brazil’s higher chemicals import tariffs kick off Brazil’s higher import tariffs on dozens of chemicals kicked off on Tuesday after the government published them on the Official Gazette late on Monday. Brazil’s Senate approves EU Reach-like rules to increase chemicals control Brazil’s Senate approved on 15 October the creation of a National Inventory of Chemical Substances aiming at “reducing negative impacts” of toxic chemicals on human and environmental health. PRICING Mexico PE domestic prices lower on weak demand, ample supplyDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices dropped in Mexico due to weak demand and ample supply. In other Latin American countries, prices were unchanged. Brazil hydrous and anhydrous ethanol sales surgeIn Brazil, 1.73 billion liters of hydrous ethanol were sold by Center-South units, representing a 4.36% increase over the same period in the previous harvest. This expansion demonstrates the domestic market's ongoing need for hydrous ethanol. Dow plans maintenance at LLDPE unit in Argentina – sourcesDow is having a scheduled maintenance at its linear 310,000 tonne/year low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) plant in Bahia Blanca, Argentina, until 5 November, according to market sources. Chile, Peru international PP prices drop on lower Chinese offers International polypropylene (PP) prices dropped in Chile and Peru on the back of lower offers from China. Chinese offers retreated this week, after rising the previous week due to higher crude oil prices.
21-Oct-2024
Europe top stories: weekly summary
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 18 October. Turkey PP grades slide as sellers rush to sell before November Spot prices for all grades of polypropylene (PP) in Turkey suffered sizeable decreases this week as sellers made a strong push to offload material. FAKUMA ’24: Foggy path ahead for Europe polymers A thick morning mist hung over Lake Constance, as thousands gathered at the lakeside city of Friedrichshafen, Germany, for the Fakuma plastics trade fair. It is a fitting metaphor for the challenge facing the polymer industry in Europe: impossible to see more than few feet in front of you. Or, for the more pessimistically minded, the risk of a plunge into icy waters if you don’t watch your step. EPCA ’24: Europe MMA moving past pessimism but uncertainty remains The Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) market is moving past the pessimism seen in previous years, with there being some hope about demand improvements – although this remains clouded in uncertainty. FAKUMA '24: ICIS experts predict top talking points at plastics fair A turbulent 2024 for plastics markets – from Europe's rocky road to economic recovery to Red Sea attacks spiking shipping costs and throwing trade flows out of whack – has posed big questions for demand, supply and optimism for the year to come. IPEX: Global spot index rises again on increases in NE Asia The global spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) rose for the second consecutive week in the week ended 11 October, by 0.3%, again due to price increases in northeast Asia.
21-Oct-2024
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates tick lower as backlog at EC ports lingers
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US continue to face downward pressure after an early end to the peak pre-holiday shipping season, but backlogs at some East Coast ports following a 3-day strike could lead to short-term delays. Rates to the US West Coast edged lower by 3% this week, according to online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos and as shown in the following chart. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said transpacific rates are now down by 30% from the peaks during July but remain several thousand dollars higher than what would be typical peak season rates. They are also about $1,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent units) higher than the adjusted floor set in April to account for diversions away from the Red Sea. “As long as Red Sea diversions continue to absorb capacity on an industry level, prices may not fall much further than seen back in April,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. PORT CONGESTION The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at US Gulf and East Coast ports lasted just three days, and market analysts initially expected backlogs created by the work stoppage to be cleared up in two to three weeks. Some ports, such as the Port of New York/New Jersey, were expecting to be back to normal sooner than that. But Levine said the backlog at the Port of Savannah, Georgia still needs another two weeks to get back to normal as Hurricane Milton added to the number of waiting vessels. Ships are waiting more than two days to get into Savannah, and Levine said other ports are citing delays of one to four days, which he termed as significant congestion, but not extreme. Port Tampa Bay remains closed and is expected to reopen on Monday after damage caused by Milton, which will mostly impact the fertilizer industry. Levine said that some carriers have announced blank sailing in response to the congestion, but this may also be aimed at reducing capacity to adjust for the lower, post-peak season volumes. Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page
16-Oct-2024
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