Styrene

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 21 March. Europe spot PE prices freeze mid-March on tariffs, no sign of panic Polyethylene (PE) spot prices in Europe are flat in mid-March after news of the EU-US tariffs brought trading activity to a halt, although little "panic" was seen in the week to 14 March. German economic sentiment rallies to pre-war levels on government spending plans Business sentiment in Germany jumped this month to the highest level since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, driven by expectations of higher government spending and the recent interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB). LyondellBasell, Covestro confirm closure of Maasvlakte, Netherlands POSM site LyondellBasell and Covestro have confirmed the shutdown of the joint venture propylene oxide/styrene monomer (POSM) plant, the companies announced on Tuesday. INSIGHT: Major macro reversal as Europe and China prepare to ramp up stimulus while US aims to cut spending In the global chemical and economic landscape, the US has for many years been the ‘cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry basket’ with slowing but steady GDP growth, abundant and cheap energy, big government stimulus for infrastructure projects and a tilt towards reshoring. Europe domestic base oils market shrugs off tariffs threat Concerns in the European base oils market about the imminent US-EU trade dispute are limited to the wider economic impact long term, but participants dismissed an immediate effect given an exclusion for oil and oil products. INSIGHT: How short will Europe PE get if tariff war sticks? As the prospect of EU tariffs on US polyethylene sinks in, players in Europe will be gauging how exposed the region is, how short the market could get, and where replacements could come from, if tariffs are prohibitively high.

24-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 21 March. Bearish sentiment prevails in Asia petrochemicals amid oversupply By Jonathan Yee 17-Mar-25 14:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Weak downstream demand, exacerbated by economic and geopolitical uncertainties, keeps sentiment bearish and buyers cautious across petrochemical markets in Asia. China unveils consumption stimulus to safeguard growth By Fanny Zhang 17-Mar-25 16:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s State Council announced on Sunday a special action plan to boost consumption, in fresh efforts to help achieve its growth target of around 5% for 2025. Monthly price gaps between Asia rPET, PET remain wide in Q1 By Arianne Perez 17-Mar-25 17:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Average monthly spot prices between bottle-grade recycled polyethylene terephthalate (rPET) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) pellets were persistently wide amid various factors in the Asian markets. Asia methanol in flux as Iran capacities expected to come onstream By Damini Dabholkar 17-Mar-25 17:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Asian methanol market has seen some price uncertainty over the last few weeks, with several market participants closely watching developments related to the start-up of methanol plants in Iran. INSIGHT: Asia chemical prices to soften in March amid crude oil losses – ICIS By Ann Sun 18-Mar-25 13:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical prices in March are expected soften due to downward pressure from crude oil losses. This forecast is driven by bearish sentiment caused by concerns over OPEC and its allies’ (OPEC+) planned output increase and the US’ trade policies. China remains net SM importer in 2024, setting stage for active exports in 2025 By Luffy Wu 18-Mar-25 16:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Despite market players' rising focus on China's styrene monomer (SM) export market, the country remained a net SM importer in 2024 with an annual SM trade deficit of 159,719 tonnes. INSIGHT: China PET resin production growth to decelerate in 2025 By Jimmy Zhang 18-Mar-25 17:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–On an annual basis, China PET resin (mainly bottle grade) production growth remained quite high in both 2023 and 2024, at around 10% and 15% respectively. ICIS China February petrochemical index dips; March demand soft By Yvonne Shi 19-Mar-25 12:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic petrochemical prices weakened in February amid a sluggish market, with downstream factories slow to resume operations after the Lunar New Year holiday. PODCAST: Volatility seen in Asia, Mideast isocyanates amid recent supply changes By Damini Dabholkar 19-Mar-25 13:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia and Mideast isocyanates prices climbed rapidly immediately after the Lunar New Year holiday, followed by sharp corrections in mid to end-February. Indonesia central bank keeps policy interest rate at 5.75% after market rout By Nurluqman Suratman 19-Mar-25 17:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indonesia’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% on Wednesday, a day after local stocks closed nearly 4% lower, on concerns over the country’s economic growth prospects and government finances. Arbitrage widens for Asia-Europe acetic acid, etac spot trades By Hwee Hwee Tan 20-Mar-25 13:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Traders leveraging on easing freight rates and a stronger euro have fixed several spot cargoes for acetyl products bound for Europe from China, lifting Asia-Atlantic trade volume into March. INSIGHT: Persistent capro oversupply sees plant closures, consolidation in Asia By Isaac Tan 20-Mar-25 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The global caprolactam (capro) market is grappling with significant challenges, as oversupply from expanding Chinese production capacities, weak downstream demand, and rising margin pressures combine to create a pessimistic outlook for producers worldwide. Vopak's €1bn investments in energy transition projects underway – exec By Jonathan Yee 20-Mar-25 15:49 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Dutch storage and infrastructure firm Vopak is doubling down on its energy transition strategy, re-affirming its commitment to invest €1 billion in low-carbon infrastructure through to 2030, the company’s Asia and Middle East chief told ICIS. Japan Feb core inflation at 3.0%; upholds interest rate hike hopes By Nurluqman Suratman 21-Mar-25 12:18 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan's core consumer prices excluding fresh food in February rose by 3% year on year, remaining above the central bank's 2% target, reinforcing market expectations of further interest rate hikes this year. PODCAST: A tale of two olefins; C2, C3 to see diverging demand trends By Damini Dabholkar 21-Mar-25 13:32 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia propylene (C3) editor Julia Tan speaks with Asia ethylene (C2) editor Josh Quah about the impact of recent tariff wars on downstream market sentiment, along with the markets' outlook for the second quarter.

24-Mar-2025

SAN ANTONIO (ICIS)–Here is a summary of chemical market stories, heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC). Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. AFPM ‘25: US tariffs, retaliation risk heightens uncertainty for chemicals, economies The threat of additional US tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, and their potential impact is fostering a heightened level of uncertainty, dampening consumer, business and investor sentiment, along with clouding the 2025 outlook for chemicals and economies. AFPM '25: New US president brings chems regulatory relief, tariffs The new administration of US President Donald Trump is giving chemical companies a break on regulations and proposing tariffs on the nation's biggest trade partners and on the world. AFPM ’25: Shippers weigh tariffs, port charges on global supply chains Whether it is dealing with on-again, off-again tariffs, new charges at US ports for carriers with China-flagged vessels in their fleets, or booking passage through the Panama Canal, participants at this year's IPC have plenty to talk about. AFPM ’25: LatAm chemicals face uncertain outlook amid oversupply, trade policy woes Latin American petrochemicals face ongoing challenges from oversupplied markets and poor demand, with survival increasingly dependent on government protectionist measures. AFPM ’25: US propane supply long; ethane prices rising The US petrochemical industry is seeing a glut of upstream propane supply and rising prices for key feedstock ethane. AFPM ’25: Weak demand takes toll on US ethylene as supply concerns ease Persistently poor demand, underpinned by worries over global tariff policies and a sluggish US economy are putting downward pressure on US ethylene prices. AFPM ’25: US propylene demand weak despite recent supply disruptions Weak demand in the US propylene market has counterbalanced recent supply disruptions, pushing spot prices and sentiment lower. AFPM ’25: US BD supply lengthening; rubber demand optimistic US butadiene (BD) has been rather balanced in Q1 despite a couple of planned turnarounds and cracker outages limiting crude C4 deliveries, but supply is expected to lengthen, and demand is cautiously optimistic. AFPM ’25: US aromatics supply ample amid low demand Domestic supply of aromatics is ample and demand is relatively poor. AFPM ’25: US methanol exports, bunker fuel demand to grow, but domestic demand sentiment low US methanol participants’ outlook on the key downstream construction and automotive sectors has dimmed, but optimism continues for export growth and bunker fuel demand. AFPM ’25: Tariffs, weak demand weigh on US base oils Uncertain US trade policy paired with already weak finished lubricant demand weighs on base oil market sentiment. AFPM ’25: Trade policies dampening outlook for Americas PE The US polyethylene (PE) industry started 2025 with some early successes amid the backdrop of lower year-on-year GDP growth. Now, with the impact of volatile tariff policy on top of the aforementioned lower GDP forecast, the outlook for PE has fallen. AFPM '25: Tariffs to shape the trajectory of caustic soda in US and beyond The North American caustic soda market is facing continued headwinds coming via potential tariffs, a challenged PVC market and planned and unplanned outages. US President Donald Trump has threatened to implement tariffs on Mexico, Canada and the EU as well as on products that are directly tied to caustic soda but has delayed enactment on multiple occasions. These delays have bred uncertainty in the near-term outlook, impacting markets in the US and beyond. AFPM '25: US PVC to face headwinds from tariffs, economy The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is facing continued headwinds as tariff-related uncertainties persist. The domestic PVC market is expected to grow between 1-3% in 2025 but continues to face challenges in housing and construction. Meanwhile, export markets continue to wrestle with the threat of protectionist policies and tariffs at home and abroad. AFPM ’25: US spot EG supply balanced-to-tight on heavy turnaround season; EO balanced Supply in the US ethylene glycols (EG) market is balanced-to-tight as the market is undergoing a heavy turnaround season. The US ethylene oxide (EO) market is balanced as demand from derivatives including surfactants is flat. AFPM ’25: US PET prices facing upward price pressure on tariffs, China’s antimony exports ban, peak seasonUS polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices continue to face volatility as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. AFPM ’25: US PP volatility persists amid weak demand The US polypropylene (PP) market is facing weak demand, raw material volatility and tariff uncertainty. AFPM ’25: US ACN rationalization inevitable amid declining demand Production of acrylonitrile (ACN) in the US is being reduced or shuttered as already weak demand continues to fall and as downstream plants are shutting down. Changes to the supply/demand balance, trade flows and tariff uncertainties are weighing on market participants. AFPM ’25: US nylon trade flows shifting amid global capacity changes, tariff uncertainties US nylon imports and exports are changing as capacity becomes regionalized and geographically realigned. The subsequent changes to trade flows, price increase initiatives and tariff uncertainties are weighing on market participants. AFPM ’25: US ABS, PC face headwinds from closure and oversupply The US acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) markets are lackluster and oversupplied. Demand remains soft kicking off the year, and the closure of INEOS’s Addyston, Ohio, ABS facility and tariff uncertainties continue to pressure ABS and PC markets. AFPM ’25: US styrene market facing oversupply amid weak demand, trade uncertainty The US styrene market is transitioning from a period of supply tightness to one of potential oversupply, driven by weak derivative demand and the recent restart of Styrolution’s Bayport, Texas, unit. This return to full operation, coupled with subdued demand, suggests ample supply in the short term. AFPM ’25: US PS faces slow start to 2025 amid weak demand Domestic polystyrene (PS) demand started the year off weaker than expected, with limited restocking and slower markets. AFPM ’25: US phenol/acetone face challenging outlook heading into Q2 US phenol and acetone are grappling with a lot of moving pieces. AFPM ’25: US MMA facing new supply amid volatile demand heading into Q2 US methyl methacrylate (MMA) is facing evolving supply-and-demand dynamics. Roehm's new plant in Bay City, Texas, is in the final stage of start-up, but is not in operation yet. There is anticipation of sample product being available in Q2 for qualification purposes. AFPM ’25: US epoxy resins in flux amid duties, tariffs heading into Q2 US epoxy resins is grappling with changes in duties and trade policies. AFPM ’25: Acetic acid, VAM eyes impact of tariffs on demand, outages on supply The US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) markets are waiting to see what impact shifting trade and tariff policy will have on domestic and export demand, while disruptions are beginning to tighten VAM supply. AFPM '25: US etac, butac, glycol ethers markets focus on upcoming paints, coatings demand US ethyl acetate (etac), butyl acetate (butac) and glycol ethers market participants are waiting to see if the upcoming paints and coatings season will reinvigorate demand that has been in a long-term slump. AFPM ’25: Low demand for US oxos, acrylates, plasticizers countering feedstock cost spikes US propylene derivatives oxo alcohols, acrylic acid, acrylate esters and plasticizers have been partly insulated from upstream costs spikes by low demand, focusing outlooks on volatile supply and uncertain demand. AFPM ’25: N Am expectations for H2 TiO2 demand rebound paused amid tariff implementations After initial expectations of stronger demand for titanium dioxide (TiO2) in the latter half of 2025, the North American market is now in flux following escalating tariff talks. AFPM ’25: US IPA, MEK markets look to supplies, upstream costs US isopropanol (IPA) market has an eye on costs as upstream propylene supplies are volatile, while the US methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market is evaluating the impact of global capacity reductions. AFPM ’25: US melamine prices continue to face upward pressure on duties, tight supply US melamine is experiencing upward pricing pressure, thanks in large part to antidumping and countervailing duty sanctions and tight domestic supply. AFPM '25: US polyurethane industry braces for cascade effect of tariffs US polyurethane prices for toluene diisocyanate (TDI), methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and a variety of polyether and polyester polyols continue to see increase pressure as the market assesses the impacts of potential tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. AFPM ’25: US BDO market eyes costs, demand outlook uncertain US 1,4 butanediol (BDO) production costs have been mounting, and margins have been crunched. Supply is ample and demand has been lackluster. AFPM ’25: US propylene glycol demand begins softening after prior feedstock-driven uptick After a cold winter with strong demand for seasonal propylene glycol (PG) end-uses in antifreeze and de-icers in many parts of the US, demand is starting to cool. AFPM ’25: US MA sentiment cautious ahead of potentially volatile Q2 US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing a volatile economic backdrop. Spot feedstock normal butane has fallen below $1/gal in March due to the end of peak blending season and strong production. AFPM ’25: US PA, OX face trade uncertainty, production constraints US phthalic anhydride (PA) and orthoxylene (OX) demand remains relatively weak. Prices have been remaining flat and are expected to settle lower this month after losing mixed xylene (MX) price support and underlying crude oil price declines. AFPM '25: Tight feedstock availability to keep US fatty acids, alcohols firm despite demand woes Tight supplies and high prices for oleochemical feedstocks are expected to keep US oleochemicals prices relatively firm, as continued macroeconomic headwinds, including escalating trade tensions between the US and other countries, only further weigh on consumer sentiment and discourage players from taking long-term positions. AFPM '25: Historic drop in biodiesel production to keep US glycerine relatively firm A drop in US biodiesel production to levels not seen since Q1 2017 is likely to keep the floor on US glycerine prices relatively firm through at least H1 as imports of both crude and refined material fail to fully offset the short-term shortfalls in domestic supply. PRC ’25: US R-PET demand to fall short of 2025 expectations, but still see slow growth As the landmark year, 2025, swiftly passes, many within the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) industry doubt the demand and market growth promised by voluntary brand goals and regulatory post-consumer recycled (PCR) content minimums will come to fruition. PRC ’25: US pyrolysis recycling players churning through regulatory, economic uncertainty As both regulatory and economic landscapes continue to change, production and commercialization progress among pyrolysis based plastic recyclers continues to be mixed. Pyrolysis, a thermal depolymerization/conversion technology which targets polyolefin-heavy mixed plastic waste, or tires, is expected to become the dominant form of chemical recycling over the next decade. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Recycled Plastics topic page

22-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analyst Aviva Zhang analyzes the recent sharp fall in China's domestic styrene prices in March, and the potential impact of tight supply due to extensive plant maintenance. Lower costs driven by declining crude oil and benzene prices; market closely monitors crude fluctuations. East China styrene inventories transition from accumulation to drawdown; plant turnarounds expected to increase in March and April. Expanded polystyrene (EPS) producers maintain need-to-basis purchasing due to slow destocking and reduced operating rates. ICN

20-Mar-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 14 March. European naphtha slides as demand wanes, refineries roar back Sentiment in Europe's naphtha spot market was weighed down by upstream crude volatility, weak blending demand and limited export opportunities in the week to 7 March despite ample liquidity in the physical space. Flagship Maasvlakte POSM plant to close in October – union The largest propylene oxide/styrene monomer (POSM) production complex in Europe is expected to close in October, union FNV said on Tuesday, after an agreement was reached between operator LyondellBasell and employees at the site. Europe chems stocks claw back losses as markets firm despite tariffs European chemicals stocks firmed in early trading on Wednesday as markets rebounded from the sell off of the last week, despite the onset of US tariffs on aluminium and steel and Europe’s pledge to retaliate. 'Game changer' for Europe PE as EU plans retaliatory tariffs on US European polyethylene (PE) players are braced for a potentially big impact from the EU’s retaliatory tariffs on plastics from the US, in the latest twist of the growing trade war. INSIGHT: Can the chemicals sector tap into Europe’s rearmament era? Europe’s drive to drastically ramp up defence spending is likely to drive a wave of investment into the region’s beleaguered industrial sector, but existing military spending patterns and technical requirements could limit uplift for chemicals.

17-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea is initiating full emergency response measures as US steel and aluminum tariffs take effect, aiming to mitigate the impact on its economy, which is already grappling with weak exports and domestic consumption. US reciprocal tariffs, automotive tariffs to bite Hyundai Steel enters emergency mode due to tariff-induced financial strain 2024 export surplus at risk as global tariff war escalates The South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) convened a meeting with stakeholders on 12 March to strategize in response to the US' newly implemented 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The MOTIE meeting was organized to "further strengthen the joint public-private emergency response system in preparation for the US administration's steel and aluminum tariff measures, the anticipated imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April, and tariffs on specific items such as automobiles", the ministry said in a statement. "We will further strengthen the response system ahead of the anticipated imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April and do our utmost to protect the interests of our industry," industry minister Ahn Duk-geun said. "We will closely conduct high-level and working-level consultations with the US, including the head of the Office of Trade, and monitor the response trends of other major countries to minimize any disadvantages to our industry," he added. South Korea's trade minister Cheong In-kyo is currently in the US from 13 to 14 March to discuss trade issues including reciprocal tariffs and investment projects with his counterparts, MOTIE said in a statement on 12 March. Cheong will meet with officials at the US Trade Representative for consultations on the tariff issue, as well as investment plans by South Korean companies in the world’s biggest economy. According to data from the US International Trade Administration (ITA), South Korea was the fourth-largest exporter of steel to the US last year, accounting for 9% of Washington's steel imports. The northeast Asian country was also the fourth-biggest exporter of aluminum to the US, comprising about 4% of US aluminum imports. Hyundai Steel Co, South Korea's second-largest steelmaker after POSCO, has entered emergency management mode due to increasing market pressures, local media reported on Friday. The company has implemented a 20% salary reduction for all executives, effective 13 March, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap. Further measures include a review of voluntary retirement options for staff, along with plans to drastically reduce operational expenses, including limiting overseas travel. The US tariffs on all steel imports have significantly worsened the company's financial outlook, the Korea Times said. EMERGENCY EXPORT MEASURES The South Korean government on 18 February announced emergency export measures consisting of four pillars: tariff responses; a record won (W) 366 trillion ($253 billion) in export financing; export market diversification; and additional marketing and logistics support. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene toluene and styrene. Government officials have expressed concern that export conditions are expected to worsen considerably in the first half of the year but improve in the second half, defining the current situation as “an emergency” and “the last opportunity to maintain the export growth momentum”. South Korea achieved record-breaking exports and a trade surplus in 2024, with exports reaching $683.7 billion and the trade balance showing a $51.6 billion surplus. A major concern is increased risks amid the trade protectionist stance of the US under President Donald Trump which could trigger a full-scale global tariff war. In February, South Korea’s export growth inched up 1% year on year to $52.6 billion, accompanied by the first decline in chip exports in 16 months which offset strong automobile and smartphone shipments. "The first half of the year is expected to be particularly difficult for exports due to the convergence of three major challenges: the launch of the new US administration, continued high interest rates and exchange rate volatility, and intensifying competition and oversupply in advanced industries," according to S Korea’s government ministries. Concerns include falling prices of major export items and a decrease in import demand in key markets as well as expectations of weak oil prices following the end of production cuts by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) and the US pro-fossil fuel policies. South Korea’s slowing import demand, the US’ increased local production, EU’s electric vehicle market challenges and global contractions in manufacturing and construction markets are also causes for concern. These factors are expected to particularly affect exports of major items such as semiconductors, automobiles, petrochemicals, and machinery in the first half of the year. There are also worries about lower exports in critical sectors due to falling unit prices and oil prices, along with the risk of reduced demand in the US and EU for automobiles and general machinery due to market challenges and the contraction of the construction market. South Korea's GDP growth this year is projected at 1.5%, down from its previous estimate of 1.9% and lower than the 1.6% to 1.7% range indicated in January. For 2024, South Korea's final GDP growth was confirmed at 2.0%, matching the preliminary estimate released in January. The economy is experiencing a slowdown in the recovery of domestic demand, including consumption and construction investment, coupled with continued employment difficulties, particularly in vulnerable sectors, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance's monthly economic report released in Korean on Friday. "While geopolitical risks persist in the global economy, uncertainties in the trade environment are also expanding, such as the realization of tariff impositions by major countries," it said. "The government will continue to work hard on supporting exports and responding to uncertainties in the trade environment." Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Trade cargo containers at Busan port, South Korea – 1 February 2025. (YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

14-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The threat of additional US tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, and their potential impact is fostering a heightened level of uncertainty, dampening consumer, business and investor sentiment, along with clouding the 2025 outlook for chemicals and economies. The US chemical industry, a massive net exporter of chemicals and plastics to the tune of over $30 billion annually, is particularly exposed to retaliatory tariffs. Chemical company earnings guidance for Q1 and all of 2025 is already subdued, with the one common theme from the investor calls being little-to-no help expected from macroeconomic factors this year. Tariffs only cloud the outlook further. Tariffs have long been a feature of US economic and fiscal policy. In the period to the 1940s, tariffs were used as a major revenue source to fund the federal government before the introduction of the income tax and were also used to protect domestic industries. After 1945, a neo-liberal world order arose, which resulted in a lowering of tariffs and other trade barriers and the rise of globalization. With the collapse of the Doha Round of trade negotiations in 2008, this drive stalled and began to reverse. Heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), it is clear that the neo-liberal world order has ended. Rising geopolitical tensions and logistics issues from COVID led many firms to diversify supply chains, leading to reshoring benefiting India, Southeast Asia, Mexico and others, and to the rise of a multi-polar world. It is also resulting in the rise of tariffs and other trade barriers around the world, most notably as US trade policy. FLUID US TRADE POLICYThe US administration’s policy stance on tariffs has been very fluid, changing from day to day. It is implementing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on 12 March and has already placed additional tariffs of 20% on all imports from China as of 4 March (10% on 4 February, plus 10% on 4 March). On 11 March, the US announced steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada would be ramped up to 50% in retaliation for Canadian province Ontario placing 25% tariffs on electricity exports to the US. Later, Ontario suspended the US electricity surcharge, and the US did not impose the 50% steel and aluminium tariff. The US had placed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada (10% on energy) and Mexico on 4 March but then on 5 March exempted automotive and then on 6 March announced a pause until 2 April. China retaliated by implementing 15% tariffs on US imports of meat, fish and various crops, along with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal. Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs on C$30 billion worth of goods on 4 March and then with the US pause, is delaying a second round of tariffs on C$125 billion of US imports until 2 April. Mexico planned to retaliate on 9 March but has not following the US pause. US President Trump has also threatened the EU with 25% tariffs. We have a trade war and as 1960s Motown artist Edwin Starr sang, “War, huh, yeah… What is it good for?… Absolutely nothing.” Canada, Mexico and China are the top three trading partners of the US, collectively making up over 40% of US imports and exports. The three North American economies, until recently, had low or non-existent tariffs on almost all of the goods they trade. This dates back to the 1994 NAFTA free trade agreement, which was renegotiated in 2020 as the USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement). A reasoning behind the tariff threats on Canada and Mexico is to force Canada and Mexico to stop illegal drugs and undocumented migrants from crossing into the US. These tariffs were first postponed in early February after both countries promised measures on border security, but apparently more is desired. But the US also runs big trade deficits with both countries. Here, tariffs are seen by the administration as the best way to force companies that want US market access to invest in US production. IMPACT ON AUTOMOTIVEUS automakers are the most exposed end market to US tariffs and potential retaliatory tariffs, as their supply chains are even more highly integrated with Mexico and Canada following the USMCA free trade deal in 2020. The USMCA established Rules of Origin which require a certain amount of content in a vehicle produced within the North America trading partners to avoid duties. For example, at least 75% of a vehicle’s Regional Value Content must come from within the USMCA partners – up from 62.5% under the previous NAFTA deal. Supply chains are deeply intertwined. In the North American light vehicle industry, materials, parts and components can cross borders – and now potential tariff regimes – more than six times before a finished vehicle is delivered to the dealer’s lot. US prices for those goods will likely rise. The degree to which they rise (extent to which tariffs costs will pass through) depends upon availability of alternatives, structure of the domestic industry and pricing power, and currency movements. In addition, some of the Administration’s polices dealing with deregulation, energy, and tax will have a mitigating effect on the negative impact of tariffs for the US. The 25% steel and aluminium tariffs will add nearly $1,500 to the cost of a light vehicle and will result in lower sales for the automotive industry which has been plagued in recent years by affordability issues. If it had been implemented, the 50% tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada would only compound the pricing impact. All things being equal, 25% tariffs on the metals would push down sales by about 525,000 units but some of the favorable factors cited above as well as not all costs being passed through to consumers will partially offset the effects of higher metal prices. Partially is the key word. Since so many parts, components, and finished vehicles are produced in Canada and Mexico, US 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico would add further to the price effects. The economic law of demand holds that as prices of a good rise, demand for the good will fall. ECONOMIC IMPACTTariffs will dampen demand across myriad industries and markets, and could add to inflation. By demand, we mean the aggregate demand of economists as measured by GDP. Aggregate demand primarily consists of consumer spending, business fixed investment, housing investment, and government purchases of goods and services. Tariffs would likely add to inflation but the effects would begin to dissipate after a year or so. By themselves, the current round of tariffs on steel and aluminium and on goods from Canada, Mexico and China will dampen demand due to higher prices. Plus, as trading partners retaliate, US exports would be at risk. Preliminary estimates suggest the annual impact from these tariffs – in isolation – on US GDP during the next three years could average 1.4 percentage points from baseline GDP growth. Keep in mind that there are many moving parts to the economy and that the more favorable policies could offset some of this and, as a result, the average drag on GDP could be limited to a 0.5 percentage point reduction from the baseline. POTENTIAL GDP IMPACT OF US TARIFFS – 20% ON CHINA, 25% ON MEXICO AND CANADA Real GDP is a good proxy for what could happen in the various end-use markets for plastic resins and the reduction of US economic growth. In outlying years, however, tariffs could support reshoring and business fixed investment. The hits on Mexico and Canada would be particularly. China’s economic growth would be affected as well. But China can shift exports to other markets. Mexico and Canada have fewer options. Resilience will be key to growing uncertainty and will lead to shifting trade patterns and new market opportunities. This is where scenarios, sound planning and strategies, and leadership come into play. US EXPORTS AT RISK, SUPPLY CHAINS TO SHIFTUS PE exports are particularly vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs. The US is specifically targeting tariffs on countries and regions that absorb around 52% of US PE exports – China, the EU, Mexico and Canada, according to an ICIS analysis. Aside from PE, the US exports major volumes of PP, ethylene glycol (EG), methanol, PVC, styrene and vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), along with base oils to countries and regions targeted with tariffs. The US exports nearly 50% of PE production with China and Mexico being major outlets. China has only a 6.5% duty on imports of US PE, having provided its importers with waivers in February 2020 that took rates to pre-US-China trade war levels. The US-China trade war under the first US Trump administration started in 2018 with escalating tariffs on both sides, before a phase 1 deal was struck in December 2019 that removed some tariffs and reduced others. After the waivers offered by China to importers in February 2020, US exports of PE and other ethylene derivatives surged before falling back in 2021 from the COVID impact. They then rocketed higher through 2023 and remained at high levels in 2024. Since 2017, the year before the first US-China trade war, US ethylene and derivative exports to China are up more than 4 times, leaving them more exposed than ever to China. With tariff escalation, chemical trade flows would shift dramatically. Just one example is in isopropanol (IPA). Shell in Sarnia, Ontario, Canada, produces IPA, of which over 85% is shipped to the US, mainly to the northeast customers, said ICIS senior market analyst Manny Borges. “It is a better supply chain for the customers instead of shipping product from the US Gulf,” said Borges. “With the increase in tariffs, we will see several customers shifting volumes to domestic producers or countries where the tariffs are not applied,” he added. US IPA producers are running their plants at around 67% of capacity on average and have sufficient capacity to supply the entire domestic market, the analyst pointed out. This dynamic, where US producers supply more of the local market versus imports, would likely play out across multiple product chains as well, especially in olefins where the US is more than self-sufficient. Even as the US is more than self-sufficient in, and a big net exporter of PE, ethylene glycols, polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), it imports significant quantities from Canada. In the event of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, US producers could easily fill the gap, although logistics would have to be reworked. Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Insight article by Kevin Swift and Joseph Chang

12-Mar-2025

Correction: In the ICIS story “Flagship Maasvlakte POSM plant to close in October – union” dated 11 March 2025, please note the chart has been removed to clarify that Hyosung Chemical is not planning to shut down its Vietnam polypropylene plant. A corrected story follows. LONDON (ICIS)–The largest propylene oxide/styrene monomer (POSM) production complex in Europe is expected to close in October, union FNV said on Tuesday, after an agreement was reached between operator LyondellBasell and employees at the site. The Maasvlakte, Netherlands, plant, which has been offline for most of the last 12 months, will close on 1 October, according to an FNV representative, after the majority of union members at the site backed a deal on severance pay. “The plant at Maasvlakte will close definitely at October 1st,” the representative said. “A vast majority of our union members at Lyondell has voted in favor of a social plan in which the company and the trade unions have come to an agreement on a severance pay and outplacement,” the representative added. LyondellBasell declined to comment on the plans, with a spokesperson stating that no definitive decisions have been made at any of their operations. Joint venture partner Covestro also declined to comment. The unit was taken down for economic reasons between July and October 2024, before being brought down again in December. With a production capacity of 315,000 tonnes/year of PO and 680,000 tonnes/year of SM, the complex is the largest production facility of its type in Europe, but has faced increasing challenges as global capacities have grown and energy costs increased. The Netherlands site is among six in Europe that LyondellBasell placed under strategic review late last year, with the rest centered in the company’s core olefins and polyolefins (O&P) business. The five O&P sites under scrutiny in Europe are in Berre, France; Muenchmuenster, Germany; Brindisi, Italy; Tarragona, Spain; Carrington, UK; and Maasvlakte, Netherlands. Including Maasvlakte, around 15.1 million tonnes/year of chemicals production capacity is currently being rationalised, with the wave of closures rocking the industry increasingly rippling out to other regions, particularly Asia. Thumbnail photo: The Maasvlakte site (Source: LyondellBasell) Additional reporting by Fergus Jensen

11-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's headline inflation eased in February, giving the central bank flexibility to loosen monetary policy to boost economic activity amid a slowdown. 1.9% average inflation forecast kept for 2025-2026 Feb PMI reading in contraction mode at 49.9 Feb exports rebound weaker than expected Consumer price inflation in Asia’s fourth-largest economy eased last month to 2% on a year-on-year basis, slowing from the six-month high of 2.2% in January, data from Statistics Korea showed on Thursday. After staying below the central bank's 2% target in September-December 2024, inflation spiked in January due to rising global oil prices, compounded by weakness of the Korean won. "Going forward, consumer inflation is expected to fluctuate around the target level amid mixed factors of a weak local currency and low demand pressure," the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a statement. The won (W) has strengthened 2% against the dollar this year, reaching around W1,440 against the US dollar on Thursday, after tumbling to its weakest level in almost 16 years in early January, with the downward pressure aggravated by a prolonged domestic political instability. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also eased in February to 1.8%, from 1.9% in the previous month. South Korea's trade-reliant economy is facing numerous challenges, including the protectionist policies of the US’ Trump administration. In response to these headwinds and with inflation largely in line with expectations, the BOK has adopted a more accommodative monetary policy stance, cutting its benchmark interest rate three times since October 2024. On 25 February, the central bank cut its policy interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% as it revised down its GDP forecasts. GDP growth this year is projected at 1.5%, down from its previous estimate of 1.9% and lower than the 1.6% to 1.7% range indicated in January. For 2024, South Korea's final real GDP growth was confirmed at 2.0%, matching the preliminary estimate released in January, the BOK said on 5 March. Meanwhile, the central bank maintained its inflation average forecast of 1.9% for both this year and next. "Export growth has weakened amid a slump in consumption, driven by increased political uncertainties following the declaration of martial law and by a deterioration in weather conditions," the BOK said. "Trends in the domestic demand recovery and in export growth are forecast to be lower than previously expected due to deteriorating economic sentiment and due to U.S. tariff policies," it stated. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene toluene and styrene. The country is experiencing a political crisis stemming from President Yoon Suk Yeol's controversial declaration of martial law in December, which has led to his impeachment and arrest. Its Constitutional Court is deciding President Yoon's fate, reviewing his impeachment after weeks of public trials, with his insurrection trial expected to take months and a verdict potentially reached by late 2025 or early 2026, according to media reports. ECONOMY LOSING STEAM South Korea’s industrial production shrank in January, with noted declines across output, consumption and investments. January’s overall industry output in January fell 2.7% year on year, reversing a 1.7% increase in December, official data showed on 4 March. Industrial output in South Korea's manufacturing and mining sector decreased by 2.3% in January compared with the same month last year. The services and construction sector output declined by 0.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Data released over the weekend showed that February exports rose 1.0% year on year, a sharp reversal of the 10.2% decline in January. Imports also increased, rising by 0.2% compared to a 6.4% drop in January, though this was below market expectations of a 2.6% rise. "While the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday adds volatility to the data, underlying momentum weakened in February,” Dutch banking and financial information services provider ING said in a note. The Lunar New Year, which is celebrated in most parts of northeast and southeast Asia, fell on 29 January. Conversely, car exports rebounded strongly by 17.7% year on year in February after falling in the previous three months. “Carmakers are likely to push their products out as early as possible before the reciprocal tariffs come into effect,” ING said. “We expect exports to remain a growth driver for the economy in the first quarter of 2025. Despite the moderation in exports, a sharper decline in imports should boost the positive contribution from net exports in Q1 2025.” MANUFACTURING PMI BACK IN CONTRACTION  S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI for South Korea dipped to 49.9 in February from 50.3 in January, even though output and new orders increased. This suggests that exports are likely to maintain their upward trajectory, while the domestic economy is acting as a drag on overall growth. “As suggested by the local business survey, business confidence remained weak amid political instability in Korea and uncertainty surrounding global trade,” ING said. “We expect the domestic political situation to become clearer in two weeks following the Constitutional Court ruling on the impeachment of President Yoon,” it added. “But US trade policy is likely to remain a headwind for businesses,” ING said. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: At a container pier in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan on 1 November 2023.(YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

06-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US fell significantly this week on increased capacity, while spot rates for liquid chemical tankers were stable to softer. CONTAINER RATES Global average container rates continue to fall, dropping by 10% this week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Average global rates have fallen by almost 30% from 9 January, according to Drewry data, after rising from late October amid frontloading volumes ahead of a possible union labor strike at US Gulf and East Coast ports. Rates from Shanghai to New York plunged by 13% from the previous week, while rates form Shanghai to Los Angeles plummeted by 11% week on week, according to Drewry data and as shown in the following chart. Rates to Los Angeles are down by 29% from early-January, and rates to New York are down by 27.6% over that time. Drewry expects a slight decrease in spot rates next week as capacity increases. Deliveries of new container ships and a slowdown in recycling older vessels have led to an increase of 2.4 million TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) since the beginning of 2024. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said during a webinar that market players are watching two future dates – 4 March, when the reassessment of the Mexico and Canada 25% tariffs takes place, and the 1 April deadline when investigations should be complete on President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STEADY-TO-SOFTER Rates for liquid chemical tankers ex-US Gulf were stable to softer this week, with slight decreases seen on the US Gulf-Asia trade lane for small parcels and on the US Gulf to Brazil route. Rates for larger parcels on the US Gulf-Asia trade lane were unchanged amid a slowdown in activity. Shipping brokers are seeing inquiries along this route for ethanol, monoethylene glycols (MEG) and ethylene dichloride (EDC) for March shipping dates. Falling rates on the US Gulf-Brazil trade lane are because there is plenty of open space for the rest of February and into March, brokers said, and limited spot activity. A broker said it is seeing an increase in inquiries for this trade lane which could help steady the market. On the transatlantic eastbound route, a broker said there are plenty of inquiries and that most of the regular contract shipowners have been able to secure smaller parcels to help fill out their vessels. Shipments of styrene monomer (SM) were fixed to Europe, as well as methanol and caustic soda.

21-Feb-2025