Vinyl chloride monomer (VCM)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Celanese CEO Lori Ryerkerk will step down at the end of the year, a move that followed the company's decision to slash its dividend by 95% and temporarily idle plants, the US-based acetyls and engineered materials producer said on Monday. Ryerkerk will be replaced by Chief Operating Officer Scott Richardson, who will become CEO on 1 January. In a statement, Ryerkerk said, “Coming out of retirement to lead Celanese since 2019 as CEO has been the true highlight of my career, and I'm proud of what we've achieved together.” Kim Rucker, lead independent director of the board, said, "With Lori at the helm, Celanese has navigated challenging macro environments while strengthening its competitive position. We wish her all the best in her next chapter.” TOUGH TIMESThe announcement of Ryerkerk's departure comes just over a month after Celanese missed its Q3 earnings guidance by a large margin, reporting $2.44/share versus an earlier guidance of $2.75-3.00. The following day, shares of Celanese were down by as much as 25% in afternoon trading. During the quarter, Celanese was hit by a rapid and acute decline from automotive and industrial end-markets. Automobiles are an important end market for the company's Engineered Materials segment. Celanese had increased its exposure to automobiles with its $11 billion acquisition of DuPont's Mobility & Materials (M&M) business in 2022. The acquisition proved challenging, with Celanese outlining steps in early 2023 that it planned to take to raise the earnings of M&M. In addition to weakness in autos, demand remained weak for paints, coatings and construction, important end markets for the company's Acetyls segment. New capacity for vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) came online and outpaced demand.

09-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s benchmark stock market index continued to bleed on Monday amid political instability wrought by the shock martial law announcement on 3 December, with impeachment motions against President Yoon Suk Yeol dropped over the weekend due to lack of quorum. KOSPI composite index falls for fourth session Petrochemical shares tumble along; Nov exports fall 5.6% year on year Yoon may be stripped of presidential powers At the close of trade on Monday, the KOSPI composite index shed 67.58 points or 2.78% at 2,360.58, with shares of major petrochemical companies slumping. The Korean won also weakened sharply against the US dollar. The pair was trading W1,437.27 as of 07:04 GMT. When martial law was declared late on 3 December, the won tumbled to a near two-year low above W1,440 levels versus the greenback. PETROCHEMICAL EXPORTS FALLINGSouth Korea is a major exporter of ethylene, as well as aromatics, such as benzene, toluene and styrene monomer (SM). The overall industry is reeling from a combination of weak external demand and overcapacity in China. South Korean industries, including chemicals, rely heavily on exports to China, whose self-sufficiency has grown over the years. In November, South Korea’s petrochemical exports declined by 5.6% year on year to $3.6 billion. In the first 11 months of 2024, however, its petrochemical export volume increased by 7.5% year on year, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) said on 5 December. Market players said that port operations in Daesan have been unsteady because of strong winds, causing delays in cargo deliveries. “Petrochemical exports are facing difficulties due to unforeseen factors such as falling product prices linked to oil prices and bad weather,” the first vice minister of MOTIE Park Sung-taek said after a recent visit to the refinery of Hyundai OIlbank and the production/export site of Hyundai Chemical. For Hyundai Oilbank, the arrival of five carriers and three crude oil import vessels were delayed because of inclement weather in late November, while delays also hit shipment of five product carriers of Hyundai Chemical, MOTIE noted. “In order to prevent disruptions in exports, we will diversify the types of oil reserves from the existing heavy crude oil to light crude oil in consideration of the types of oil used by each refinery, and greatly simplify the oil reserve lending process so that companies can quickly provide oil reserves when necessary," Park said. EMERGENCY MEETINGS OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS CONTINUEThe economic managers of Asia’s fourth-largest economy – led by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choi Sang-mok – have been holding daily emergency meetings before markets open to ensure financial markets stability, keeping their promise to provide “unlimited liquidity”. “The participants agreed that, as domestic and international uncertainties still persist, relevant organizations should maintain a closer emergency cooperation and response system and mobilize all capabilities to respond in order to minimize the economic impact of the political situation. In a statement on Monday, the Ministry of Economy and Finance said that “as domestic and international uncertainties still persist, relevant organizations should maintain a closer emergency cooperation and response system and mobilize all capabilities to respond in order to minimize the economic impact of the political situation”. South Korea intends to activate a market stabilization fund worth won (W) 40 trillion ($28 billion) following the country’s brief dalliance with martial law, with its slowing economy facing the prospect of increased US tariffs in 2025. For the stock market, the MOEF said that W30 billion of the value-up fund “has already been invested”, with W70 billion to be injected this week, with another W30 billion scheduled to be implemented sequentially. YOON SURVIVES IMPEACHMENT BUT MAY BE STRIPPED OF POWERSBecause of lack of quorum, South Korean President Yoon managed to survive impeachment on 7 December, which was set into motion following his declaration of a six-hour long martial law that disrupted markets. “The impeachment vote failed to gain the 200-vote hurdle needed to suspend the president from duties,” Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research said in a note on Monday. “The opposition bloc needed only eight votes from the ruling PPP [People Power Party] to impeach Yoon as votes by three PPP members had prompted protesters outside the National Assembly to chant “five more to go,” it said. On 8 December, PPP leader Han Dong-hoon said that Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will manage the nation’s affairs as an exit plan for Yoon is being prepared, the constitutionality of which is being questioned by the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). Focus article by Pearl Bantillo Additional reporting by Jonathan Yee Thumbnail image: Lawmakers in the voting chamber during the plenary session for the impeachment vote of President Yoon Suk Yeol at the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea on 7 December 2024.(JEON HEON-KYUN/POOL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

09-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Days before the shock declaration of martial law in South Korea by President Yoon Suk-yeol, political wranglings stalled the 2025 budget deliberations of Asia’s fourth-biggest economy. Opposition DPK wants heavy cut in 2025 national budget Impeachment looms for President Yoon No impact on petrochemical operations/trades “Tensions between the ruling PPP [People Power Party] and main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) have escalated as both sides have been unable to come to a consensus on the budget,” according to BMI Country Risk & Industry Research, a unit of Fitch Solutions Group in a note on Wednesday. DPK has proposed heavy cuts – to the tune of won (W) 4.1 trillion ($2.9 billion) – to the Yoon administration’s proposed budget of W677.4 trillion for next year, which represents a 3.2% increase from 2023. “As things stand, Yoon’s proposed 2025 budget … faces the risk of being watered down to KRW673.3trn amid strong opposition from the DPK which holds a parliamentary majority,” BMI stated. QUITE AN UNEXPECTED MOVE Most South Koreans, including players in the petrochemical industry, like the rest of the world, were baffled at Yoon’s declaration of emergency martial law late on 3 December. The last time the highly industrialized country in Asia faced martial law was in 1979, and no recent developments in the geopolitical and financial sectors of the country indicated that such a drastic measure would be taken. At close to midnight, Yoon had declared martial law – which meant military rule and curbs on civil rights – on national television noting that it was meant to crack down on pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional order in the country. "Martial law was quite surprising for us to hear because it hasn't happened in the last 40 years," said a soda ash distributor. The declaration of martial law and its withdrawal hours later has thrown South Korea into political instability. It was highly disruptive for market sentiment that for a time, suspension of trading was mulled, but was eventually called off when the martial law was rescinded about six hours after it was declared. South Korea’s Ministry of Finance and Economy and the Bank of Korea assuaged market fears of disruption by offering “unlimited liquidity support” to ensure market stability, immediately after the martial law declaration. The won weakened near two-year lows against the US dollar on 3 December at around W1,440 but recovered to around W1,412 levels as of Wednesday afternoon. The benchmark KOSPI composite index closed off lows at 2,464.00, down 1.44% from the previous day, after falling nearly 2% in intraday trade. “For now, we expect limited implications for the economy and financial markets as the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Finance have responded swiftly by reassuring investors,” BMI said. “Notably, the central bank committed to boosting short-term liquidity and enacting measures to stabilise the FX [foreign exchange] markets, which aligns with our view that risks around the South Korean won, should remain contained for now,” it added. The central bank held an emergency monetary policy meeting on Wednesday morning, with the Monetary Board deciding “to keep all options open and to actively take market stabilization measures until markets are fully stabilized”. In late November, the BoK issued its second interest rate cut in as many months to prop up the economy, while trimming its GDP growth forecasts for this year to 2.2%, and for 2025 to 1.9%. In Q3, the country's GDP growth decelerated to 1.5% from a 2.3% pace set in Q2. The South Korean economy is expected to face added pressure next year amid US threats to impose tariffs on all imported goods. Like most of Asia, the country is heavily reliant on exports, with China and the US as its biggest trade partners. South Korea's export growth in November weakened to 1.4% year-on-year to $56.4 billion, while imports shrank by 2.4% to $50.7 billion, indicating domestic weakness. YOON’S FUTURE UNCERTAIN Calls for Yoon’s resignation is mounting, with lawmakers from DPK saying that if he does not resign immediately, steps will be taken to have him impeached. “We anticipate heightened political uncertainty in the near term. Yoon is now under intense pressure to resign. If he does not, we expect that it is only a matter of time before he is impeached,” BMI said. “If so, we believe Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will step in as interim leader, paving the way for elections to be held within 60 days, in accordance with the constitution,” it added. According to Korean news agency Yonhap, opposition parties – DPK and five others, including the Rebuilding Korea Party and Reform Party, submitted on Wednesday afternoon a motion to impeach President Yoon to the National Assembly. The motion – which was signed by 190 opposition lawmakers and one independent lawmaker, with no support from any ruling party lawmakers – will be reported to a parliamentary plenary session on 5 December and then put to a vote on either 6 December or 7 December. South Korea’s law requires that an impeachment motion be put to a vote between 24 and 72 hours after the motion is reported to a plenary session, Yonhap said. Yoon, an inexperienced politician, became the 20th president of the country in May 2022 and is currently serving the third of his five years of office. Previously, he was South Korea's chief prosecutor. In its note, BMI noted that PPP leader Han Dong-hoon had urged Yoon to explain his decision and to dismiss defense minister Kim Yong-hyun, who advised the president to declare martial law “even as the finance and foreign ministers advised against it”. “The silver lining we think is that the swift reversal of the martial law underscores the resilience of South Korea’s institutions,” it said. NO IMPACT ON PETROCHEMICAL TRADESPlayers in the petrochemical industry are monitoring the political developments but noted no immediate impact on the commodities markets. "Politically, [it is] still unstable as the President is getting pressure to resign," a source at a phenol/acetone producer said. South Korea is a major exporter of ethylene, as well as aromatics such as benzene, toluene and styrene monomer (SM). "At this moment the situation has settled down, but we'll see how the government will respond to the issue,” the soda ash distributor said. “From the industrial side there is no huge impact because plants/factories are always running at full capacity so now we don't see any impact," he said. "But long-term impact, we'll need to see how other foreign companies and assets may move out of South Korea," the distributor added. For the time being, players are more pre-occupied with unsteady port operations in Daesan because of heavy winds which are affecting trades and cargo deliveries. Meanwhile, South Korea's petrochemical industry has its own troubles stemming from Asia's overcapacity. In the case of of major player Lotte Chemical, which swung into a net loss of W514 billion in Q3 2024, the company is making big changes to its  portfolio, selling or closing commodities businesses as it refocuses on higher margin specialties. South Korean industries, including chemicals, rely heavily on exports to China, whose self-sufficiency has grown over the years. Insight article by Pearl Bantillo ($1 = W1,414) Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang, Jonathan Chou, Evangeline Cheung, Helen Lee, Shannen Ng, Josh Quah and Clive Ong

04-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 November. INSIGHT: India’s ADD findings on PVC have potential to reshape regional flows in wider Asia By Jonathan Chou 11-Nov-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market players are assessing the potential ramifications following preliminary findings on India's PVC imports released by the country's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR). Asia petrochemical shares tumble as China stimulus disappoints By Jonathan Yee 11-Nov-24 15:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia tumbled on Monday as China’s much-awaited stimulus measures failed to impress markets, while the US is likely to put up more trade barriers against the Asian giant following the re-election of Donald Trump as president. Asia toluene markets slump on waning regional demand By Melanie Wee 12-Nov-24 11:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s toluene spot markets are being weighed down by a combination of burgeoning supply and lacklustre demand, at a time when arbitrage economics to divert material to the US were unviable. Asia petrochemical shares fall on strong US dollar, uncertain trade policies By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Nov-24 14:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia extended losses on Wednesday, tracking weakness in regional bourses, amid a strong US dollar and uncertainty over trade policies of US President-elect Donald Trump which could fuel inflation. Shell Singapore site divestment deal to be completed in Q1 2025 By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Nov-24 11:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shell expects the deal to sell its energy and chemicals park in Singapore to Chandra Asri and Glencore will be completed by the first quarter of 2025, a company spokesperson said on Thursday. INSIGHT: China may accelerate PP exports amid intensified supply and demand imbalance By Lucy Shuai 14-Nov-24 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China may accelerate PP exports in 2025 amid an intensified imbalance between supply and demand as a large number of new plants are expected to start up. PODCAST: SE Asia propylene to face additional supply, freight challenges in 2025 By Damini Dabholkar 15-Nov-24 11:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast Asia's propylene market faces significant challenges in 2025, with additional supply expected and freight rates continuing to impact downstream demand. Crimped supplies ease pressure on Asia VAM prices By Hwee Hwee Tan 15-Nov-24 14:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sporadic plant disruptions and crimped supplies in China are fuelling expectations of price competition easing across vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) import markets in Asia.

18-Nov-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil is to start an investigation into polyethylene (PE) arriving on its shores from the US and Canada and whether the material constituted dumping, the government said. As previously reported by ICIS, the proposals to investigate came from polymers major Braskem and were backed by Brazil’s chemicals trade group representing producers, Abiquim. Braskem is the dominant PE producers in Brazil, and antidumping duties (ADDS) on US- and Canada-originated PE would considerably prop up its domestic market position. The start of investigation proceedings was published in Brazil’s Diario Oficial da Uniao (Official Gazette). The investigation is to be carried out by the Department of Commercial Defense (Decom), which is part of the Ministry of Industry’s Secretary of Foreign Trade. Braskem filed on July 31 a petition to initiate an investigation into the practice of dumping of PE resins exports to Brazil with US or Canadian origin. The analysis of the evidence of dumping is to consider the period from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, while the period for analyzing potential damage caused to domestic producers is to consider the period from April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2024. “Due to the large number of producers/exporters from the US and Canada identified in the detailed data on Brazilian imports … the producers or exporters responsible for the largest reasonably investigable percentage of the export volume of the exporting country will be selected to send the questionnaire,” said Decom. “The absolute dumping margins determined for the purposes of this document reached $220.95/tonne and $264.99/tonne, and the relative margins were 21.4% and 26.9% for the US and Canada, respectively. It can be inferred that, if such dumping margins did not exist, domestic industry prices could have reached higher levels, reducing or even eliminating the effects of the investigated imports.” Braskem said earlier in November it is lobbying the Brazilian government to extend ADDs on polyvinyl chloride (PVC) beyond 2025 when they are due to expire. In October, the government implemented higher import tariffs on several chemicals, also after heavy pressure by domestic producers and their trade group Abiquim. Additional reporting by Bruno Menini

14-Nov-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shell expects the deal to sell its energy and chemicals park in Singapore to Chandra Asri and Glencore will be completed by the first quarter of 2025, a company spokesperson said on Thursday. Shell assets will be key to Chandra Asri’s growth strategy Chandra Asri plans for second petrochemical complex still unclear Closing of deal originally scheduled for end-2024 The energy major on 8 May announced the sale, which includes the physical assets and commercial contracts in Singapore, to CAPGC – a joint venture majority-owned by Chandra Asri with Glencore holding a minority stake – for an undisclosed fee. The transaction was initially scheduled to be completed by the end of 2024. “The divestment is subject to regulatory clearance and other customary closing conditions,” the spokesperson said. “Subject to regulatory approval, the transaction is expected to complete by the first quarter of next year.” Shell and CAPGC have also signed crude supply and product offtake agreements that will come into effect following completion. A new entity under CAPGC called Aster Chemicals and Energy will operate the facilities and handle its crude oil purchases and fuel sales, newswire agency Reuters said in a 13 November report, citing unnamed sources. The Shell Energy and Chemicals Park (SECP) in Singapore comprises its integrated refining and chemicals assets on Pulau Bukom and Jurong Island. The Pulau Bukom assets include a 237,000 barrel/day refinery and a 1.1 million tonne/year ethylene cracker. It was Singapore’s first refinery in 1961. SECP KEY TO CHANDRA ASRI'S GROWTH PLANSChandra Asri in a 4 October statement said that its move to acquire the SECP assets aligns with its growth strategy of “going global” as it seeks to expand in the energy, chemical and infrastructure sector not only in Indonesia but also abroad. “Through SECP, which is one of the largest oil refineries and trading hubs in the world, Chandra Asri Group will source petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel, gas oil, and bitumen to support various industries in Indonesia,” the company said. “Additionally, Chandra Asri Group will help fill gaps in the supply of chemical products, such as monoethylene glycol (MEG), polyols, and ethylene, propylene, and styrene monomers, to support manufacturing processes in the country,” it said. “This will ensure that the country’s energy supply is secured as well as reducing dependencies on foreign entities.” In a presentation to investors in early August, Chandra Asri said that it will establish offtake agreements for both fuel and chemical products, utilizing Glencore's extensive trading network to “secure beneficial arrangements”. Chandra Asri currently operates Indonesia's sole naphtha cracker in Cilegon, which can produce 900,000 tonnes/year of ethylene and 490,000 tonnes/year of propylene. The new assets in Singapore will boost Chandra Asri’s overall production capacity from around 4.2 million tonnes/year currently to more than 18 million tonnes/year by 2026. The company is also the sole domestic producer of styrene monomer, ethylene, butadiene (BD), MTBE, and butene-1, with a new world-scale chlor-alkali ethylene dichloride (EDC) plant development on the horizon. The company’s planned second petrochemical complex, dubbed CAP2, in Cilegon includes a chlor-alkali plant that is expected to produce 420,000 tonnes/year of caustic soda and 500,000 tonnes/year of EDC. The chlor-alkali plant is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 but Chandra Asri has not yet provided a firm timeline of the other proposed plants previously announced for CAP2. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Chandra Asri’s olefins plant in Cilegon, Banten province (Source: Chandra Asri official website)

14-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Under US President Donald Trump, US chemical companies will unlikely see the full-blown tariffs that he has proposed during his campaign, but they will operate under a faster growing economy with higher inflation and interest rates that will settle at an elevated rate, economists at Oxford Economics said on Monday. Oxford is forecasting what it calls a limited Trump scenario, under which his administration will not fully adopt the policies he proposed during his campaign. Tariffs will be limited, targeted and phased in, while Congress will limit growth in the government deficit by restraining some of his tax cuts and spending measures. Oxford's baseline scenario for 2025 does not change much because it is assuming that Trump will focus most of his first year in office on extending the tax cuts of his earlier administration, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist for Oxford Economics. He made his comments during a presentation. The consultancy's forecast for 2025 GDP is a tenth of a point higher versus its estimate in October, he said. Inflation will rise by a tenth of a point in 2025. Trump is inheriting a strong economy, so there is little risk of recession. In these initial years, the biggest effect on the US economy will be tax cuts, and these should increase growth in GDP, said Bernard Yaros, lead US economist for Oxford. After 2026, Oxford assumes Trump will adopt some of his immigration restrictions, and it is expecting GDP growth to fall below its earlier forecast. Stricter immigration policies will reduce the supply of labor and slow down the consumption of goods and services. LIMITED TARIFFSOxford expects the Trump administration will not impose the widespread tariffs it proposed during its campaign, which included 60% duties on Chinese imports and baseline tariffs of 10-20% on all imports. Yaros said these campaign proposals were likely negotiating tactics. Sweet expects that Trump will require Congress to pass some of his tariffs, and legislators will not pass such high rates, Sweet said. In other cases, advisors and trade representatives will restrain Trump. For China, Trump will likely impose tariffs of 25% on major categories, such as machinery, electronics and chemicals, Yaros said. For the EU, Canada and Mexico, Trump will likely impose very targeted tariffs on steel, aluminum, base metals and motor vehicles, Yaros said. For Canada and Mexico in particular, Trump will unlikely adopt measures that will threaten the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade agreement that his administration signed during his first term. That trade deal was one of the signature achievements of Trump's administration, so he will not want to pursue policies that will threaten the upcoming renewal of that agreement, Yaros said. While the tariffs will be limited, they will still be a drag on the economy by nudging inflation higher, reducing real consumer income, tempering consumer spending and encouraging the misallocation of resources, Yaros said. LIMITED TARIFFS REDUCE RETALIATION RISK FOR CHEMSOxford's scenario will limit the risk of countries imposing retaliatory tariffs on US exports. US chemical producers were vulnerable to such tariffs because they purposely added capacity for export over the years, particularly for polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The magnitude of these exports and the existence of a global glut in plastics and chemicals would make US chemical exports a likely target for retaliatory tariffs. On the import side, the US does have deficits in key commodity chemicals, such as benzene. Targeted tariffs could carve out exceptions for benzene was well as other chemicals in which the US has a trade deficit, such as methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and melamine. Targeted tariffs will likely rule out duties on imports of oil. US refineries rely on imports of heavier grades of oil to optimize the operations of some of their units. US shale oil makes up nearly all of the growth in the nation's crude production, and that oil is made up of light grades. Meanwhile, tariffs could shield some chemicals from competition, such as epoxy resins. CONGRESS MAY LIMIT GROWTH IN DEFICITOxford pointed out that some moderate Republicans could restrain some of Trump's tax and spending proposals to limit growth in the government deficit, Yaros said. Other economists have expressed concerns that the US will issue larger amounts of government debt to fund the growing deficit. That would lead to a cascade effect that could ultimately increase rates for US mortgages, which would slow down the housing market and the plastics and chemicals connected to that market. Still, all of Oxford's scenarios forecast a rise in the government deficit. SLOWER RATE CUTS BY FEDOxford expects Trump's policies will be inflationary, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of cuts on their benchmark federal funds rate. It expects the federal funds rate will settle at 3.125%, versus its forecast of 2.75% that was made in October. TRUMP WILL PRESERVE MOST RENEWABLE TAX CREDITSTrump will likely preserve most of the tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) because most of them benefitted states controlled by his party, the Republicans, Yaros said. These include tax credits on renewable fuels, renewable power, hydrogen and carbon capture. The exception will include incentives for electric vehicles (EV), which Trump had singled out during his campaign, Yaros said. OXFORD'S FORECASTThe following chart shows Oxford's new baseline forecast and compares it with a scenario under which the policies of the previous administration are maintained. The following chart shows Oxford's forecast that assumes Trump will fully adopt all of his campaign proposals. This is not the consultancy's baseline forecast because it does not expect such a full-blown Trump scenario will happen. Thumbnail shows the US Capitol. Image by  photo by Lucky-photographer.

11-Nov-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 8 November. Braskem’s US sales could benefit from higher tariffs on automotive – CFOBraskem’s operations in the US could benefit if president-elect Donald Trump hikes import tariffs related to the automotive sector, the CFO at the Brazilian polymers major said this week. Brazil's Braskem lobbying for ADDs on Chinese PVC to be extended – CFOBraskem is lobbying the Brazilian government to extend antidumping duties (ADDs) on China-produced polyvinyl chloride (PVC), the CFO at the Brazilian polymers major said on Thursday. INSIGHT: Braskem’s tariffs-infused optimism risks turning into complacencyManagement at Brazil’s polymers major Braskem sounded on Thursday the most optimistic in many quarters after the Brazilian government – which indirectly has a stake on the company – sharply increased import tariffs to protect, in large part, Braskem’s market share. Mexico’s Braskem Idesa completes 87% of ethane terminalConstruction of Braskem Idesa’s ethane import terminal in Mexico had reached around 87% of physical completion as of September, the Brazilian petrochemicals major said during its Q3 earnings release and conference call on Thursday. Brazil central bank hikes rates 50 bps to 11.25%, seeks ‘credible’ fiscal policyBrazil's central bank monetary policy committee (Copom) voted unanimously late on Wednesday to hike the main interest rate benchmark, the Selic, by 50 basis points to 11.25%, to fend off rising inflation and a depreciating Brazilian real. Chile’s manufacturing output falls in September, overall activity flatChile’s manufacturing output fell in September by 1.1%, month on month, the central bank’s monthly report about economic activity said this week. Brazilian police indict 20 in Braskem mining disaster caseBrazil's Federal Police (PF) have closed their probe into Braskem's rock salt mining operations in Maceió, state of Alagoas, naming 20 individuals as suspects. MOVES: Braskem appoints Roberto Ramos as CEOBraskem is to appoint Roberto Ramos CEO, effective 1 December, the Brazilian petrochemicals major said on Monday. PRICINGLatAm PE international prices stable to soft on competitive US exportsInternational polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as stable to soft across Latin American (LatAm) countries on the back of competitive US export offers. LatAm PP domestic prices fall in Chile, Colombia, Mexico tracking lower feedstock costs, weak demandDomestic polypropylene (PP) prices fell in Chile, Colombia and Mexico, tracking lower feedstock costs and weak demand. In other Latin American (LatAm) countries, prices were unchanged this week.

11-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Oil and gas production, the main source of the feedstock and energy used by the petrochemical industry, should benefit from policies proposed by President-Elect Donald Trump, while hydrogen and renewable fuels could lose some of the support they receive from the federal government. Trump expressed enthusiastic and consistent support for oil and gas production during his campaign. He pledged to remove what he called the electric vehicle (EV) mandate of his predecessor, President Joe Biden. Trump may attempt to eliminate green energy subsidies in Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) BRIGHTER SENTIMENT ON ENERGYRegardless of who holds the presidency, US oil and gas production has grown because much of it has taken place on the private lands of the Permian basin. Private land is free from federal restrictions and moratoria on leases. That said, the federal government could indirectly restrict energy production, and statements from the president could sour the sentiment in the industry. During his term, US President Joe Biden antagonized the industry by accusing it of price gouging, halting new permits for LNG permits and revoking the permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline on his first day in office. By contrast, Trump has pledged to remove federal impediments to the industry, such as permits, taxes, leases and restrictions on drilling. WHY ENERGY POLICY MATTERSPrices for plastics and chemicals tend to rise and fall with those for oil. For US producers, feedstock costs for ethylene tend to rise and fall with those for natural gas. Also, most of the feedstock used by chemical producers comes from oil and gas production. Policies that encourage energy production should lower costs for chemical plants. RETREAT FROM RENEWABLES, EVsTrump has pledged to reverse many of the sustainability policies made by Biden. Just as Trump did in his first term, he would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. For electric vehicles (EVs), Trump said he would "cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations". He said he would end the following policies: The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation's (DoT) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates fuel-efficiency standards. These became stricter in 2024. The EPA was expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II) program, which would phase out the sale of combustion-based vehicles by 2035. If the EPA grants California's request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. Given Trump's opposition to government restrictions on combustion-based automobiles, the EPA would likely reject California's proposal under his presidency or attempt to reverse it if approved before Biden leaves office. According to the Tax Foundation, Trump would try to eliminate the green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These included tax credits for renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), blue hydrogen, green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. In regards to the UN plastic treaty, it is unclear if the US would ratify it, regardless of Trump's position. The treaty could include a cap on plastic production, and such a provision would sink the treaty's chances of passing the US Senate. For renewable plastics, much of the support from the government involves research and development (R&D), so it did little to foster industrial scale production. WHY EVs AND RENEWABLES MATTERPolicies that promote the adoption of EVs would increase demand for materials used to build the vehicles and their batteries. Companies are developing polymers that can meet the heat and electrical challenges of EVs while reducing their weight. Heat management fluids made from base oils could help control the temperature of EV batteries and other components. If such EV policies reduce demand for combustion-based vehicles, then that could threaten margins for refineries. These produce benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) in catalytic reformers and propylene in fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs). Lower demand for combustion-based vehicles would also reduce the need for lubricating oil for engines, which would decrease demand for some groups of base oils. Polices that promote renewable power could help companies meet internal sustainability goals and increase demand for epoxy resins used in wind turbines and materials used in solar panels, such as ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and polyvinyl butyral (PVB). Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows the White House. Image by Lucky-photographer.

07-Nov-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Celanese plans to cut its quarterly dividend by 95% in Q1 2025 and idle plants in every region after third-quarter adjusted earnings fell well below guidance, the US-based acetyls and engineered materials producer said on Monday. Q3 adjusted earnings/share were $2.44 versus an earlier guidance of $2.75-3.00. Celanese shares were down by more than 13% in afterhours trading. Celanese is taking the following steps to cut down debt: It will temporarily idle plants in every region to reduce manufacturing costs through the end of 2024 It expects to generate an expected $200 million inventory release in the fourth quarter. The idling includes 10 sites in the company's Engineered Materials segment. In the first half of the fourth quarter, Celanese has temporarily idled the company's Singapore production of acetic acid, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), esters and vinyl acetate emulsions (VAE). In Frankfurt, Germany, the company is idling its VAM plant and plans to use it as swing capacity to meet demand. It will start a program to reduce costs by more than $75 million by the end of 2025. The cost cutting will target selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses. It will target $400 million in 2025 capital expenditures, a figure below 2024 levels. It will close on a 364-day delayed draw prepayable term loan for up to $1 billion. It will draw on the term loan in Q1 2025 towards $1.3 billion in maturing debt. TOUGH THIRD QUARTERThe plant shutdowns, dividend reduction and cost cutting follow a third quarter that saw demand degrade rapidly and acutely in automobiles and industrial end markets. "Auto in Europe and North America experienced a shock to the demand patterns that had been relatively steady for the previous several quarters, with swift sales declines in both regions that led to a pullback in auto builds," said Scott Richardson, chief operating officer. Demand remained slow in Asia but did not show the same trajectory as the Americas. The company noted that prices in China for undifferentiated nylon polymer reflects supply that is growing faster than demand. Demand remained weak in paints, coatings and construction. New capacity for VAM came online and outpaced demand, amplifying the weakness in construction as well as in solar panels. Excess inventories in solar panels is weakening demand for ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA). The weakness more than offset the gains that Celanese made from its synergy projects in its Mobility and Materials (M&M) acquisition and from its acetic acid expansion project in Clear Lake, Texas. WORSE FOURTH QUARTERQ4 destocking in the automotive and industrial end markets should be heavier than normal, and Celanese expects demand to worsen in the fourth quarter. The destocking should be temporary and contained in the quarter. In Engineered Materials, Celanese expects a $40 million hit from the destocking. Another $15 million hit will come from seasonal declines associated with product mix. A further $15 million will come from temporarily idling capacity in the segment. For acetyls, Celanese is not seeing any indications of demand growth in anticipation of the first quarter or as a result of stimulus from China. For the company, Q4 adjusted earnings/share should be $1.25. Q3 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEThe following table shows the company's Q3 financial performance. Figures are in millions of dollars. Q3 24 Q3 23 % Change Sales 2,648 2,723 -2.8% Cost of sales 2,026 2,050 -1.2% Gross profit 622 673 -7.6% Net income 116 951 -87.8% Source: Celanese Earnings in Q3 2023 reflect a $503 million one-time gain from the sale of assets. Thumbnail shows adhesive, which is made with VAM. Image by Shutterstock.

04-Nov-2024