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INSIGHT: Venezuela’s petchems may finally get a chance – but unlikely to be under Maduro

LONDON (ICIS)–Venezuelans go to the polls on Sunday with the hope of a free and fair election, in which case President Nicolas Maduro is widely expected to lose office in a country where the economy has been battered by years of mismanagement, corruption, and US sanctions. In the crude oil-rich country – Venezuela holds the world’s largest reserves – petrochemicals could naturally develop given the raw materials advantage. Back in the 1990s, with crude oil output at its peak, petrochemicals were tilted as a growing and booming sector in the country. The industry never took off. Since 2001, Venezuela has been run by the socialist PSUV party, first under the late President Hugo Chavez, who died in 2013, and later under his appointee successor, Nicolas Maduro, who won an election in 2018 widely seen as not free: the PSUV-led coalition won 256 out of 277 seats in the National Assembly. Venezuela’s demise has been rapid and deep: practically no institution in the country has been spared from the PSUV taking over it, and the election on Sunday has several times been postponed as Maduro tries to cling onto power for as long as he can. The powerful military are still for the most part rallying behind him. A state of terror has been the norm in the past few years, and the economy took a turn for the worse in the late 2010s and pushed around seven million Venezuelans to flee, mostly to neighboring countries or, those with the means, to countries such as the US or Spain. Sunday’s election is momentous because it has been tilted as one in which Maduro could allow a free vote – but many still fear that is not his nature. But independent opinion polls have consistently showed him trailing behind the unity opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, a 74-year-old diplomat who managed to avoid, like other opposition candidates before him, being banned from running. PETROCHEMICALSBefore North America renewed its status as a global energy power with the advent of the shale gas boom, crude oil derivatives were – and continue to be in most Latin American countries – the only game in town when it comes to petrochemicals raw materials. In the past 30 years, crude oil output peaked in 2000 at slightly more than 3 million barrels/day, stayed mostly stable under Chavez’s rule at around 2.5 million barrels/day, but has been on a downward trend since, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). VENEZUELA CRUDE OIL PRODUCTIONJanuary 2000-July 2023 Million barrels/day Source: US’ Energy Information Administration Currently, Venezuela produces around 700,000 barrels/day. The reserves continue to be there, underground, but the facilities to extract that wealth have also been victims mismanagement and have had little maintenance. In 2023, as the world’s energy sector reeled from Russia’s attack against Ukraine, the US softened some of its sanctions on Venezuela – its crude oil was now more needed than ever – and signed the so-called Barbados Accords, which would imply lifting sanctions in exchange for a free and fair electoral process. Maduro backtracked from his word earlier in 2024 – as he kept banning candidates from the opposition to run in the process – and the US reimposed the sanctions which, in the abyss the country is, are used by the government as the excuse for the country’s malaise. Amid this backdrop over the past decades, the 1990s talk about petrochemicals being a sector which could potentially be a powerful exporter of downstream materials to the rest of the world has all but died. In June, the Venezuelan government said it was mulling building production facilities for petrochemicals and fertilizers together with Turkey’s industrial conglomerate Yildirim, but without giving much detail about timelines or budgets. However, such deals have been signed before and nothing came to fruition out of them. Yildrim had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. Meanwhile, in an interview with ICIS in May, an executive at chemicals distributor Manuchar – Belgium-headquartered but focused on emerging markets, with strong presence in Latin America – told the sad fate the company was victim of in the late 2010s. By then, the economy worsened sharply and, with it, security – or the lack of it, rather – created a dangerous country to live in, from Caracas to the provinces. The government’s terror state has included paramilitary groups which have had little regard for their own people. Most of Manuchar’s employees fled the country while they still had the means, and the human resources problem forced the company to basically idle all its facilities there, which remain dormant to this day, said Manuchar’s head for South America, Stefan Van Loock “We still have a legal entity in Venezuela, although it is dormant, and we do not have any sales there since the end of the 2010s. During our last months there, the situation had become untenable: we could not import materials, there were hardly any dollars available, so even if you got the imports, you could not pay for them most times…,” he said. “It was also becoming a human resources problem. I saw many Manuchar colleagues resign: ‘I cannot stay in Venezuela any longer, it has become too dangerous, and I am leaving’. It was a combination of all those factors that made us decide to wind down our operations there. We can only hope things improve.” It is interesting to read this piece published on ICIS in 2013 when Chavez died. At the time, there were still hopes petrochemicals could be developed as the country’s crude oil sector was still worth the name. Little we knew how much the country would quickly deteriorate in the next five years, although the article already hinted at constrains which would only become much bigger later. “Venezuela potentially could attract significant petrochemical industry investment although major industry players have tried and failed in the past to establish footholds in the country,” the article’s author, ICIS expert Nigel Davis, wrote at the time. “State-controlled producer Pequiven has plans to nearly triple its plastics production capacity to 1.86 million tonnes/year in 2016 from 694,000 tonnes/year, although its ability to do so is questioned against the backdrop of feedstock, power, and financing constraints.” And looking further into the archives, even with Chavez in power, companies across the world such as major ExxonMobil wanted to tap into Venezuela’s petrochemicals. In this agreement from 2004, the US energy major and domestic producer Pequiven was mulling a 50:50 joint venture to build a $2.5-3 billion petrochemicals complex – once again, it never got to break ground. HOPE LAST THING TO LOSEMillions of Venezuelans abroad are following the electoral campaign and, for the most part, are hoping their compatriots at home go and vote em masse on Sunday: the polls have consistently and overwhelmingly showed Maduro behind, so if a free election is held, the Chavismo may be coming to and in a few months. The structures it leaves behind will take years to dismantle, anyway, and success in building a fairer and freer Venezuela is not guaranteed. Even this week, as he sees his position threatened, Maduro rallied supporters with a violent rhetoric which raised alarms across Latin America: he said that if his party does not win the election, there could be a bloodbath. Even Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, normally shy in openly criticizing Maduro as he has a worrying tendency to flirt with far left and authoritarian leaders in the region, was blunt about his feelings. "I was shocked by Maduro's statement that if he loses the election, there will be a bloodbath … Maduro has to learn that when you win, you stay; when you lose, you leave and prepare to run again in the next election," said Lula, quoted by Brazil’s public news agency Agencia Brasil. Lula has sent to Venezuela his personal adviser on foreign policy, Celso Amorim, as part of international delegations who are to be observers in the election. Jose Marquez, a Venezuelan journalist exiled in Buenos Aires, said Sunday’s election could be the last chance to put Maduro out of office, calling on his compatriots to vote em masse against Maduro. “There are people who emigrated who are right now traveling to Venezuela just to vote on Sunday. The fact that there are people in the country who decide not to vote, perhaps in the last opportunity to remove Maduro from power, is disappointing but, above all, very sad,” said Marquez. Front page picture: Facilities operated by PDVSA Source: PDVSA Insight by Jonathan Lopez

26-Jul-2024

S Korea LG Chem Q2 net income plunges on poor battery earnings

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–LG Chem's second-quarter net income plunged year on year to won (W) 60 billion ($43m), weighed down by poor earnings at its battery unit LG Energy Solution, the South Korean producer said on Thursday. Group results in Korean won (W) billion Q2 2024 Q2 2023 % Change Sales 12,300 14,336 -14.2 Operating profit 406 618 -34.3 EBITDA 1,562 1,595 -2.1 Net income 60 671 -91.1 Q2 sales at company’s petrochemicals unit rose by 8.9% year on year to W4.97 billion. LG Chem’s petrochemicals unit swung to a Q2 operating profit of W32 billion, reversing the W13 billion loss in the same period of 2023. A gradual recovery in the supply/demand balance for LG Chem's petrochemical products is expected in Q3, but "profitability improvement is expected to be limited due to the delay in global demand recovery and rising freight rate". LG Energy Solution's Q2 operating profit fell by 57.7% year on year to W195 billion, with sales down 29.8% at W6.16 trillion. LG Chem holds a controlling 81.8% stake in LG Energy Solution, the leading car battery maker in the country in terms of sales. ($1 = W1,386)

25-Jul-2024

Romanian exchange BRM plans expansion as trading liquidity doubles

Trading activity on Romanian exchange surges year on year BRM expects further expansion with Trayport Joule platform launch and NEMO day-ahead market Bourse eyes Bulgarian market but project delayed LONDON (ICIS)–Romanian commodities exchange, BRM, has laid out internal and regional expansion plans as trading liquidity on its platforms has doubled year on year. The exchange has seen a surge in activity in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, with 13.2TWh changing hands on the spot and forward gas platforms. The number of registered participants has also increased from 130 to 150 over the same period and BRM expects a further rise thanks to ongoing expansion plans. Speaking to ICIS, Gabriel Purice, BRM’s director general, said BRM was completing a decade-long battle to become a nominated electricity market operator (NEMO) for the spot electricity markets. The company already launched its electricity intra-day market at the end of May, which means that under the NEMO designation the outfit is integrated with similar EU platforms. The next step is to launch in November the day-ahead electricity market, which will also operate under the NEMO designation. The NEMO electricity day-ahead and intra-day markets are supported by BRM partner, Nord Pool. Purice said the infrastructure is ready for launch but added that additional preliminary checks would need to be carried out in line with NEMO requirements. “The intra-day platform already has 30 registered participants but we expect more people to join once we are in a position to offer the full day-ahead and intra-day package,” he said. BRM first applied to become a NEMO spot electricity market operator in 2013 but had faced numerous internal challenges, including restrictive domestic regulations which required all electricity transactions to be carried on the state-owned platform OPCOM. The restrictions were eventually lifted, following a number of court cases mounted by BRM and subsequent legal changes at domestic and EU level. In a separate move, BRM is now preparing to offer from September access to the Trayport Joule platform, which provides integrated solutions for traders active on multiple markets. He said the Joule platform would run alongside the supporting infrastructure already operated by BRM and would include standardised products for electricity and natural gas contracts. REGIONAL EXPANSION Purice said BRM is also active regionally, having launched BRM East Energy, now renamed BRM East, a subsidiary, in Moldova in April. Since then, 29GWh have changed hands and there are 13 registered participants, according to BRM data. Traded volumes are expected to rise from 2025 as Moldova has introduced an obligation for gas suppliers to secure volumes on the open market. The director general said the exchange is looking to launch a day-ahead gas trading platform but the project depends on Moldova setting up a balancing market first. Balancing markets are a critical component of the spot market which facilitate accurate settlements. BRM also eyes Bulgaria where it applied for a licence earlier in March, hoping to offer clearing services, which the country is yet to implement. However, Purice said the application is being held up, noting the regulator DKER has recently asked BRM to provide proof of a signed agreement with the Bulgarian gas grid operator Bulgartransgaz to access their nominations platform. Purice said the agreement should be submitted after the licence is granted. DKER did not reply to questions by publication time. Bulgaria’s local Balkan Gas Hub exchange is actively used by regional traders, particularly for volumes entering the market from Turkey and sold locally. At the end of June it said it had partnered up with Hungary-based clearing house Keler CCP to offer central counterparty clearing services.

24-Jul-2024

ANALYST UPDATE: Dutch hydrogen market growth October 2023-April 2024

LONDON (ICIS)–ICIS Hydrogen Foresight data shows that over the period October 2023-April 2024, the Dutch hydrogen market saw growth across planned low-carbon hydrogen supply and demand. However, despite progression across future buyers and sellers, project progression has remained muted, with no projects progressing to final investment decision (FID). To review the findings of this update, please see the complete analysis below.

24-Jul-2024

Japan July flash manufacturing PMI falls to 49.2 as output, new orders fall

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted in July for the first time in three months after the preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.2 from 50.0 in June, au Jibun Bank said on Wednesday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion while a lower number denotes contraction. This decline signals a marginal deterioration in Japanese manufacturing business conditions in June, attributed to a reduction in both output and new orders, au Jibun Bank said in a statement on Wednesday. The fall in new orders was the most significant since February. Despite an increase in employment levels, sustained declines in new orders resulted in spare capacity within the sector, and backlogs of work decreased at the sharpest rate in four months. Input cost inflation remained high in July, accelerating to its fastest pace since April 2023. Japanese consumer inflation rose in June, putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates further, official data showed on 19 July. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) in March hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years, ending eight years of negative interest rates. The BOJ expects that the recent rise in energy prices and the phased removal of government subsidies designed to control inflation will likely accelerate the consumer price index (CPI) increase throughout the fiscal year 2025, offsetting the fading impact of previous import cost increases on consumer prices. Core inflation excluding fresh food, the BOJ's preferred measure, accelerated to 2.6% in June from 2.5% in May and from 2.2% in April. "Going forward, the government plans to renew energy subsidy programmes from August to October to counteract the heatwave during the summertime," Dutch banking and financial services firm ING said in a statement. "This could lower the overall inflation figure, but as it is temporary, the Bank of Japan is not expected to be too concerned."

24-Jul-2024

India cuts MDI import duty; plans six-month review of overall tariff structure

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India will cut import duties for methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) by 2.5 percentage points to 5.0% effective 24 July, with plans to review the country's overall tariff structure in the next six months. MDI was among raw materials identified by the Indian government on which custom duties will be reduced. India's finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the changes to the country's Basic Customs Duty (BCD) – a tax levied on imported goods at the time of their entry into the country – in her presentation of India’s national budget for the fiscal year ending March 2025 before parliament. HIGHER DUTIES FOR SOME PRODUCTSConversely, the minister said that the customs duty for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) flex films/flex banners will be raised to 25% from 10% currently starting 24 July, "to curb their imports". Flex banners are commonly used for outdoor advertising as billboards. "PVC flex banners are non-biodegradable and hazardous for environment and health," Sitharaman said. The customs duty on ammonium nitrate will also be raised to 10% from 7.5% from 24 July "to support existing and new capacities in the pipeline", she said. EXEMPTIONS FOR CRITICAL MINERALSSitharaman also proposed full exemption of 25 critical minerals from import duties, a cut in duty rates for two other products in the same category. "Minerals such as lithium, copper, cobalt and rare earth elements are critical for sectors like nuclear energy, renewable energy, space, defense, telecommunications, and high-tech electronics,” she said. “This [cut in import duty] will provide a major fillip to the processing and refining of such minerals and help secure their availability for these strategic and important sectors," Sitharaman said. As for the electronics sector, the finance minister proposed to remove the BCD on oxygen-free copper for the manufacture of resistors. GOV'T TO REVIEW CUSTOMS DUTY STRUCTUREOver the next six months, the Indian government will conduct a thorough review of its customs duty rate structure, Sitharaman said. "I propose to undertake a comprehensive review of the rate structure over the next six months to rationalise and simplify it for ease of trade, removal of duty inversion and reduction of disputes," she said. "We will continue our efforts to simplify taxes, improve taxpayer services, provide tax certainty and reduce litigation while enhancing revenues for funding the development and welfare schemes of the government." It was not immediately clear how the revised BCD structure will impact implementation of import certifications of various chemicals under the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). BIS certification for some chemicals has been extended many times since they were introduced in 2019-20 to allow domestic end-user industries more time to adhere to the quality-control orders (QCO). Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: At the Vallarpadam Terminal in Kochi, Kerala, India. 2014 (By Olaf Kruger/imageBROKER/Shutterstock)

23-Jul-2024

Mexico petchems could have more opportunities under Sheinbaum amid nearshoring – Braskem Idesa exec

LONDON (ICIS)–Mexican petrochemicals have much to gain under President-Elect Claudia Sheinbaum as the country taps into the nearshoring trend, which will require large public and private investments, according to an executive at polymers producer Braskem Idesa. Sergio Plata, head of institutional relations and communications at the mostly polyethylene (PE) producer, added that nearshoring – North American companies bringing back to the region production facilities – will require a large country effort, which the public sector alone now dominates the energy sector, will not be able to provide. Plata added that the first signs from Sheinbaum towards chemicals were encouraging: even as President-Elect, she has already visited the petrochemicals production hub in the state of Veracruz – the largest in the country. In it, she mentioned specific industry issues such as supply of certain raw materials which were very much welcomed by executives. Last week, ICIS published the first part of this interview, in which Plata said supply of ethane from Mexico’s state-owned crude oil major Pemex had stabilized after a renegotiation of the contract’s terms, although he added global PE market remained in the doldrums and a recovery may not arrive until the second half of 2025. Braskem Idesa operates the Ethylene XXI complex in Coatzacoalcos, south of the industrial state of Veracruz, which has capacity to produce 1.05 million tonnes/year of ethylene and downstream capacities of 750,000 tonnes/year for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and 300,000 tonnes/year for low-density polyethylene (LDPE). Braskem Idesa is a joint venture made up of Brazil’s polymers major Braskem (75%) and Mexican chemical producer Grupo Idesa (25%). WHAT SORT OF PRESIDENT SHE WILL BESheinbaum won an overwhelming majority in the Presidential election in June, with 60% of the vote, and her party Morena achieved a ‘supermajority’ in parliament of two-thirds which initially spooked financial markets and brought the Mexican peso down. Financial analysts have warned that, for Mexico to tap into the nearshoring trend, its infrastructure – transport but also aged electricity transmission lines – will need to be upgraded during the remaining of this decade. That effort, most analysts agree, will only be possible with large sums of private investment, so the state-owned electricity utility CFE may need to give some way to private players. Equally, during Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s term, Mexico’s emissions rose, in opposition to the country’s commitments agreed in the 2015 Paris Accord and later enshrined into its domestic law. Lopez Obrador handpicked Sheinbaum to succeed him. Despite not being that apart generationally – he is 70, she is 62 – the President-Elect is a climate scientist who started her career in environmental roles, and most analysts think she may run free from her successor – by personal choice or forced by the circumstances – in issues like climate, if she wants to keep Mexico as a respected economy which fulfils its commitments. “I think she has a very clear vision in this regard – she knows the commitments [Mexico adhered to]. Something we are liking a lot is the appointments she is making – people with experience to work in the departments they are being appointed to: they have the necessary technical knowledge,” said Plata. “We have also seen her approaching the private sector and that, without a doubt, for us as an industry that is a very good start. In those meetings, our concerns about compliance with regulations have been raised. Something is very clear: to grasp the opportunities in nearshoring, collaboration with private sector is essential to bring real benefits to all Mexicans.” Plata said that, while Sheinbaum has not met Braskem Idesa yet, she has had a busy schedule meeting with industrialists, including with the country’s chemicals trade group Aniq as well as the Veracruz industrial trade group, which Plata presides. “When she visited the south of Veracruz, she talked about reactivating the petrochemical industry, and talked about very specific issues that the industry is worried about, such production of ethane, of ethylene, of ammonia: things that sounded very good to us,” said Plata. MEXICO, VENEZUELA COMPARISONSHe was asked if, given Morena’s ‘supermajority’ in parliament, Mexico could become a new Venezuela – when the governing party takes over all resorts of power and the country stops being a democracy worth the name. “I really believe that her vision is constructive, and she intends to work with the private sector so her Administration can work for everyone. We will have to see what decisions she takes along the way. For instance, she has spoken many times about the interoceanic corridor [a project to link Mexico’s east and west coasts by water],” said Plata. “Precisely, the promotion of the corridor has at its base the chemicals and the petrochemicals industries, because one of the objectives of the corridor is to take advantage of the raw materials in the area, which would benefit petrochemicals but also agriculture, for instance, and give added value. We see plenty of opportunities there.” Front page picture: Braskem Idesa’s facilities in Coatzacoalcos Source: Braskem Idesa Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

22-Jul-2024

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 19 July. Westlake appoints Jean-Marc Gilson as new CEO, effective today US-based chemical and building materials producer Westlake Corp has appointed Jean-Marc Gilson as president and CEO, effective 15 July. He succeeds Albert Chao, who becomes executive chairman of the Westlake board of directors. SW '24: US fertilizer demand lacking as farm economics unsupportive Unfavorable farming fundamentals, including weaker grain prices, high cost of credit, and weather issues will continue to hit demand for fertilizers, said market participants on the sidelines of the Southwestern fertilizer conference (14-18 July). SHIPPING: USG-Asia liquid chem tanker rates plunge on ample space availability after Beryl Liquid chemical tanker rates from the US Gulf to Asia are plunging this week as plant shutdowns and delays in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl have led to “gaping large holes of space”, shipping brokers said on Wednesday. INSIGHT: OUTLOOK: US chems may see revival of programs, UN plastic treaty The US chemical industry could see the return of some popular trade and chemical-safety programs later this year, and customers of the major railroads could get their first chance to switch carriers if they get bad service. Global IT issues impact energy trading; Trayport services return IT issues that impacted energy trading systems on Friday morning were gradually being resolved, with market participants regaining access to critical applications. ICIS Economic Summary: US eyes coming interest rate cuts as consumer spending, inflation eases With solid progress on disinflation and the labor market easing, financial markets are sharpening their focus on the coming interest rate cut cycle, with the first move expected in September. Ten-year Treasury yields are collapsing and economically sensitive stocks surging, as consensus moves to as much as three cuts of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve in 2024 and further easing next year.

22-Jul-2024

Latin America stories: weekly summary

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 19 July. NEWS Braskem Idesa ethane supply more stable, PE prices to recover in H2 2025 – exec Supply of ethane from Pemex to polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa is now more stable after a renegotiation of the contract – but the global PE market remains in the doldrums, according to an executive at the Mexican firm. INSIGHT: Colombia’s wide single-use plastics ban kicks off amid industry reluctance Colombia’s single-use plastic ban, which affects a wide range of products, kicks off amid some industry reluctance after a hurried implementation, and with provisions to revise the legislation after a one year trial period. Brazil’s chemicals capacity utilization falls to record low in May at 58% The utilization rate at Brazil's chemical plants fell to 58% in May, the lowest level since records began in 1990, the country’s chemicals trade group Abiquim said on Wednesday. Brazil’s floods hit GDP growth in 2024 but strong recovery in 2025 – IMF The IMF has revised Brazil’s economic outlook for 2024, with GDP growth now forecast at 2.1%, down from an earlier projection of 2.2%, because of the floods in Rio Grande do Sul. Mota-Engil, PEMEX agree to build new ammonia, urea and AdBlue plant in Mexico Mota-Engil, through its subsidiary MOTA-ENGIL MEXICO, has signed an agreement with Pemex Transformación Industrial, a subsidiary of state-owned energy major Petróleos Mexicanos (“PEMEX”), to construct a fertilizer plant in Escolin in the state of Vera Cruz. Harvest Minerals undertakes rare earth elements exploration at Brazil fertilizer project Fertilizer producer Harvest Minerals announced a two-phase rare earth elements exploration program has commenced at its Arapua project in Brazil. Stolthaven Terminals chosen as potential operator for Brazil green ammonia export terminal Logistics firm Stolthaven Terminals announced that in cooperation with Global Energy Storage (GES), it has been selected as the only potential operator to design, build and operate a green ammonia terminal in Brazil to be located within the industrial export zone at Pecem in the state of Ceara. Silver Valley Metals selling Idaho project to refocus on Mexico lithium and SOP project Brownfield exploration company Silver Valley Metals announced it has signed an asset purchase agreement for the Ranger-Page project in Idaho which will allow it to refocus efforts at its lithium and potash project in central Mexico. BHP enters into further agreement with Vale over 2015 Brazil dam failure BHP announced it has entered into an agreement with Vale regarding group action proceedings in the UK in respect of the Fundao Dam failure in Brazil which occurred in 2015. PRICING Lat Am PE international prices stable to up on higher US export offers International polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady to higher across Latin American countries on the back of higher US export offers. PP domestic prices fall in Argentina on sluggish demand, ample supply Domestic polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed lower in Argentina on the back of sluggish demand and ample supply. In other Latin American countries, prices were unchanged. US Gulf sees PVC price decline, Latin America stays stable Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand in Brazil has shown fluctuations from weak-to-stable this July, accompanied by sufficient supply. Although market prices have stabilized, local prices continue to face pressure following a recent price drop in the US Gulf market.

22-Jul-2024

UPDATE: Australia’s Woodside bets on Tellurian buy to expand global LNG portfolio

Seeks optimization opportunities Saudi Aramco also said interested in Tellurian Woodside has busy development plans SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Australian producer Woodside Energy said it would buy all outstanding shares of US LNG developer Tellurian and Driftwood LNG for approximately $900 million at $1.00 per share in an all-cash deal for a transaction valued at $1.2 billion, according to a 22 July news release . “It adds a scalable US LNG development opportunity to our existing approximately 10mtpa of equity LNG in Australia. Having a complementary US position would allow us to better serve customers globally and capture further marketing optimisation opportunities across both the Atlantic and Pacific Basins,” Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill said in the release. “The Driftwood LNG development opportunity is competitively advantaged. Woodside expects to leverage its global LNG expertise to unlock this fully permitted development and expand our relationship with Bechtel, which is the EPC contractor for both Driftwood LNG and our Pluto Train 2 project in Australia.” Tellurian’s board recommended shareholders approve the transaction and provided further details in a news release. As reported, ICIS noted that Tellurian was in play in late June, and  Woodside was said to be vying with Saudi Aramco for the project. Tellurian has struggled for years with the proposed 27.6mtpa Driftwood project, going through management and financial changes that included cancellation of LNG supply deals. But Driftwood, near Lake Charles, Louisiana, is a fully permitted, pre-final investment decision (FID) prospect, that includes Phase 1 (11mtpa) and Phase 2 (5.5mtpa). Woodside is likely targeting FID readiness for Phase 1 from the first quarter of 2025. O'Neill repeated to an investor briefing on 22 July that the transaction positions Woodside to be a "global LNG powerhouse". The company aims to use a mix of offtake from Driftwood into its own marketing portfolio and retain tolling volumes while it works on selecting "high-quality partners" to scale up initial operations and eventually sell down its stake to around 50%, O'Neill told investors on a call. Sources said Saudi Aramco could be among possible investors. Woodside reports second quarter earnings on 23 July. BUSY WOODSIDE Last week, Woodside said that talks with Timor Leste (East Timor) on developing a “mutually beneficial and commercially viable “Greater Sunrise field has made progress with finer details to be unveiled in a concept Study being undertaken by Wood PL due “no later than the fourth quarter of this year.” The Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste and the Commonwealth of Australia, along with the Sunrise Joint Venture (comprising TimorGAP (56.56%), Woodside (33.44% and Operator), and Osaka Gas (10%)) are pleased to provide an update on Greater Sunrise negotiations. Offshore natural gas and condensate resources were first discovered in 1974, and located near a feed gas source to Australia at Bayu-Undan, which faces declining supply. Yet, the fields remain undeveloped as the stakeholders differ on the fiscal terms and the location of the downstream operations. According to a report released in May 2018 by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, the pipeline from the fields would either go to the existing 3.7mtpa Darwin LNG export project in Australia or to a greenfield 5mtpa Timor LNG project at Beaco on the south coast of Timor-Leste. The failure in reaching an agreement ended up having global portfolio major Shell and US supplier ConocoPhillips selling their shares to Timor Gas & Petroleo (Timor Gap) in late 2018. Timor Gap senior officials have expressed their determination regarding getting gas pumped to their island as it is “essential to Timor-Leste’s future economic growth and development”. In June, Woodside announced a revised leadership structure aiming for a simplified operating model to aggregate project execution, integrate traditional and new energy growth and opportunity, streamline corporate strategy activities, and establish a dedicated senior team for human resources, legal and external affairs. In May, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) signed a $1 billion loan agreement with a unit of Woodside that along with loans from private financial institutions raises $1.45 billion to assist Woodside in developing the Scarborough Energy Project , according to a statement from JBIC. The 8mtpa Scarborough energy project has targeted the first LNG cargo in 2026, according to Woodside. (Adds further O'Neill comments)

22-Jul-2024

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