Energy

LONDON (ICIS)–German industrial production fell 0.4% in March month on month, but output from the chemical-pharmaceuticals sector rose slightly according to statistical data released on Wednesday. Bundesbank, chem-pharma production order volume index (2021=100): March 2024 February 2024 March 2023 Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 92.6 91.6 85.7 90.1 84.6 86.3 Production in the energy-intensive industries, which includes chemicals, remained flat month on month in March but rose 4.8% in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023. In the automotive industry, which is an important end market for chemicals, March production rose 0.6% from February. March 2024 production +/- change from February Total output from industry, construction and energy -0.4% Industrial production -0.4% -Intermediate goods -0.6% -Capital goods 0.1% -Consumer goods -1.4% Energy -4.2% Construction 1.0% (source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden) Industrial production was down 3.4% from March 2023 while total production from industry, construction and energy was down 3.3%. LACK OF ORDERSAccording to a survey by the Munich-based research group ifo on Wednesday, a shortage of new manufacturing orders worsened in April, slowing the overall economy. In manufacturing, 39.5% of companies reported a lack of orders, up from 36.9% in ifo’s January survey. In the chemical industry the share of companies reporting a lack of orders was 46.6% in April. In related news, a labor union has threatened “massive” strikes in the building and construction sectors after a failure to reach a new collective agreement with their employers. Along with the auto sector, building and construction are important end markets for the chemicals industry.

08-May-2024

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Europe’s chemical industry stands to benefit in the long-term from the expansion of wind, solar and other low carbon methods of producing energy. – Growth in renewables means spot electricity prices can turn negative if demand dips – Europe electricity prices higher than pre-war as tied to price of natural gas, now mainly liquefied natural gas (LNG) –  Europe sees significant growth in solar, while wind faces delays due to supply chain issues – Decarbonizing includes reducing emissions from gas plants via carbon capture and storage (CCS) and other technologies – Challenges include grid infrastructure to transport electricity across regions with varying renewable output – Despite regulatory hurdles, there is political will for grid investment as part of the energy transition In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS power markets editor Andrea Battaglia, ICIS head of power analysis Matthew Jones, ICIS senior consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

08-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Following a better-than-expected 2024 first quarter, US compounder and formulator Avient raised its full-year guidance for adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) by $5 million at the low end. Sales into the defense market, along with raw material deflation, were the key earnings drivers in Q1 and Avent expects both to support earnings through 2024, CEO Ashish Khandpur and CFO Jamie Beggs told analysts during the company’s Q1 earnings call on Tuesday. New 2024 guidance Previous 2024 guidance Pro forma 2023 adjusted EBITDA $505 to $535 million $510 to $535 million $501.8 million SALES IMPROVING IN MOST END MARKETSAvient sees demand conditions “generally improving across all regions”, with improved momentum in consumer, packaging, healthcare, defense and industrial end markets, the executives said. After a 35% year-on-year increase in Q1, defense sales amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions, Avient expects those sales to continue growing through 2024, albeit not at the first quarter’s hot pace, they said. Avient’s Dyneema-brand fiber technology is used in the personal protection of soldiers and law enforcement and border control officers. While Avient’s utilization rates in defense are high, the company is able to meet forecast demand growth and expects no capacity limitations this year. However, it may add capacities in the future, depending on demand, which can be “lumpy” in that market, they said. Defense accounted for 7% of Avient’s total 2023 sales of $3.14 billion, with more than half of those sales in the US. Avient acquired the Dyneema business from DSM in 2022. Telecommunications and energy, however, are among the weaker end markets, with first-quarter sales down double-digit and weakness continuing into the second quarter. Destocking in the capital-intensive telecommunications market continued in Q1, with no meaningful rebound in that market expected until 2025, the executives said. Telecommunications accounted for 4% of Avient’s 2023 sales. BY REGION Regionally, Avient sees good momentum in the US in markets such as consumer packaging, defense, building and construction, industrial and infrastructure. “Destocking in those markets is over”, Khandpur said. With the exception of telecommunications and energy, overall demand in North America is “coming back quite well”, he said. However, persistent inflation is delaying the timing of interest rate cuts, which could weigh on sales in end markets such as building and construction, transportation and industrial, the executives said. In China, about 70% of Avient’s sales go into the local market, putting the company into a good position as that country’s economic policies transition to focus on the domestic market, the executives said. In Europe, demand in packaging and healthcare is improving, but Avient expects the region’s overall year-on-year sales growth to be soft. Consumer confidence in Europe is weak and eurozone manufacturing continues to signal contraction, they noted. Meanwhile, the stronger US dollar has become a headwind, they added. Sales by region in 2023: RAW MATERIAL DEFLATION Raw material deflation will continue to support margin expansion in the second quarter, albeit to a lesser extent than in the first quarter, the executives said. In the first quarter, Avient saw better-than-expected pricing for non hydrocarbon-based raw materials such as pigments and certain performance additives. Primary raw materials used in Avient’s manufacturing operations include polyolefin and other thermoplastic resins, titanium oxide (TiO2), inorganic and organic pigments, specialty additives and ethylene. Pricing, net of raw materials, should help drive year-on-year earnings growth in 2024, the executives said. Also, the company expects additional margin expansion due synergies and plant closures related to its acquisition of Clariant’s masterbatch business back in 2020, Beggs noted. M&A NOT A PRIORITY In the near-term, Avient will focus on organic growth and margin expansion whereas growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is not a priority. While Avient is not ruling out M&A, any deals would be “small and bolt-on in nature”, in areas like healthcare, sustainable solutions or composites, with focus on Asia and Latin America, Khandpur said. “Premiums are pretty high” in M&A, he added. Thumbnail photo of Ashish Khandpur, who took over as Avient's CEO and president on 1 December 2023; photo source: Avient

07-May-2024

ORLANDO (ICIS)–SABIC is looking for further opportunities for growth in the Americas as part of its strategy to navigate an era of excess capacity around the world, one that has led it and other producers to shutter capacity in high-cost regions, an executive said. "We are actively looking at our growth opportunities throughout North America as well as South America," said Sami Al-Osaimi, executive vice president, polymers, SABIC. He made his comments during a presentation at this year’s NPE: The Plastics Show. Al-Osaimi said the Americas is a very key strategic market for SABIC. The company has seen good momentum in North America. "We are definitely going to really make sure that we leverage what exactly our customers require," he said. About two years ago, SABIC and ExxonMobil started operations at an integrated polyethylene (PE) and ethylene glycols (EG) complex in Corpus Christi, Texas, US, under the Gulf Coast Growth Ventures (GCGV) joint venture. The startup marks SABIC's first US-based ethylene and PE production, albeit through a joint venture. At the same time, Al-Osaimi acknowledged the challenges facing the industry. The market is contending with the consequences of a surge in new ethylene capacity that has started up in recent years. ICIS estimates that up to 20 million tonnes/year may need to shut down to keep operating rates at healthy levels. High-cost regions are bearing the brunt. Earlier in April, SABIC announced plans to shut down a cracker in Geleen, the Netherlands. ExxonMobil revealed plans to shut down its cracker in France during that same week. Al-Osaimi did not rule out further capacity rationalizations during a question-and-answer session that followed his presentation at NPE. "SABIC always is looking to its operations in Americas, globally, and how to become more efficient and effective to support our customers to really develop the right solutions," he said. "This is going to be an ongoing process." OPPORTUNITIES IN CHEM RECYCLING, E-CRACKINGSABIC is further improving chemical recycling technology to make it more effective and efficient, he said. SABIC and Plastic Energy are developing a chemical recycling plant under a joint venture in Geleen. Completion had been expected in the fourth quarter of 2023. There are still challenges with scaling up the technology, Al-Osaimi said. Still, SABIC is open to expansion, with possible sites including the US, Saudi Arabia and other regions. In addition, SABIC, BASF and Linde recently started up a demonstration unit of an electric cracker (e-cracker). As the group demonstrates the technology, it would explore expanding the site and potentially building new units, Al-Osaimi said. STRATEGY OF COLLABORATION, INNOVATIONIn prepared remarks, Al-Osaimi elaborated on how SABIC was navigating the challenges in the market by stressing its focus on innovation and collaboration with customers. The company is focusing on end markets such as advanced packaging, automotive, transportation, building and construction, consumer goods, electrical components and health and hygiene, he said. Electric vehicles (EVs) have material challenges, that present opportunities for SABIC. The company is developing polymers to prevent thermal runaway – part of its larger BLUEHERO initiative, Al-Osaimi said. Companies that build automobiles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEs) still want to lower their weight to improve their fuel efficiency and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, he said. That is creating demand for lighter weigh materials. Produced by Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS), NPE: The Plastics Show takes place 6-10 May in Orlando, Florida. Focus article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail image shows polyethylene (PE), which is used in plastics bags. (Photo by Elaine Thompson/AP/Shutterstock)

07-May-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco's net income fell by 14.4% year on year to Saudi riyal (SR) 102.3 billion in the first quarter amid lower crude oil volumes and weakening downstream margins, the energy giant said on Tuesday. in SR billions Q1 2024 Q1 2023 % Change Sales 402.04 417.46 -3.7 Operational Profit 202.05 222.18 -9.1 Net profit 102.27 119.54 -14.4 Early this year, Saudi Arabia’s government ordered Aramco to halt its oil expansion plan and to target a maximum sustained production capacity of 12m barrels/day, 1m barrels/day below the target announced in 2020. In the first quarter, Aramco's downstream income before interest, income taxes and zakat (annual Islamic tax) slumped by 64% year on year to SR4.62 billion. The drop in downstream earnings reflects weakening refining and chemicals margins, partially offset by inventory valuation movement, it said. The drop in group earnings was partially offset by lower production royalties, an increase in crude oil prices compared to the same period last year and lower income taxes and zakat. Despite having a capacity of 12 million barrels/day, Saudi Arabia currently produces about 9 million barrels/day as part of production cuts initiated by OPEC and its allies in October 2022 and further voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members in April 2023, all designed to stabilize oil prices. Following an OPEC+ meeting in June 2023, Saudi Arabia – the world's top crude exporter – announced a further oil production cut of 1 million barrels/day. “Looking ahead, I expect our portfolio to continue to evolve as we aim to contribute to an energy transition that offers solutions to climate challenges, but at the same time recognizes the need for affordable, reliable, and flexible energy supplies," added Amin Nasser, Aramco's President and CEO. Aramco's chemicals arm SABIC and China's Fujian Energy and Petrochemical Group Co held a groundbreaking ceremony to mark the start of construction at the SABIC Fujian Petrochemical Complex in China's Fujian province during the first quarter. The project will include a mixed-feed steam cracker with up to 1.8m tonne/year ethylene (C2) capacity and various downstream units producing ethylene glycols (EG), polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polycarbonate (PC), among other products. Thumbnail photo : One of Aramco's US offices (Source: Saudi Aramco)

07-May-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. No matter which petrochemical or polymer you examine, the story is similar. To illustrate this point, let’s today look at polyvinyl chloride (PVC). As China’s economy boomed, largely thanks to the growth in its exports, so did its petrochemicals demand, increasing the gap between China’s consumption and that of the much more populous Developing World ex-China region. China’s 2008-2009 US$586bn economic stimulus package – which largely went into housing and infrastructure – seems to have had a much bigger effect on the country’s PVC demand than in some other products. Up until the Evergrande turning point in September 2021, China’s investment in housing and infrastructure continued at apace. It appears as if stimulus greatly increased the importance of Chinese PVC demand as a driver of global PVC demand: Between 1992 and 2008, China’s share of global demand averaged 17% per year; in 2009-2024, the ICIS Supply & Demand Database expects China’s share to reach 40%. China’s demand growth averaged 10% per annum between 1992 and 2023. But growth is forecast to decline to 3% per year in 2024-2030. This decline is in line with what ICIS expects in other products. Between 1992 (the start of what I see as the Petrochemicals Supercycle) and 2023, global PVC capacity exceeding demand was estimated by ICIS as averaging 8m tonnes a year. As with many other products, ICIS forecasts a big increase in global PVC capacity exceeding demand in 2024 -2030. During this period, capacity exceeding demand is expected to average 15m tonnes a year. In another parallel with other products, China’s self-sufficiency in PVC has reached the point where it has swung from being a major net importer to being a net exporter. Trade tensions between China and the West have been building since Mike Pence, the then US Vice President, made a landmark speech in October 2018. Could this translate to more protectionism in global PVC markets? It is a scenario worth considering as China seeks to increase its exports, challenging the US which accounts for the lion’s share of export trade. During the Petrochemicals Supercycle, the world was becoming ever-more globalised rather than what we are seeing today – the reverse. China was the tide that lifted all ships. Almost every year, its growth surprised on the upside, guaranteeing success for even the least-competitive plants. We didn't we have to worry about big increases in China’s self-sufficiency in PVC, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP). Now everything has changed, making big picture analysis of China’s economic problems and the global geopolitical landscape crucial. This kind of analysis has become as important if not more important than studying cost-per-tonne economics. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

07-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 3 May. Besieged by imports, Brazil’s chemicals put hopes on hefty import tariffs hike Brazilian chemicals producers are lobbying hard for an increase in import tariffs for key polymers and petrochemicals from 12.6% to 20%, and higher in cases, hoping the hike could slow down the influx of cheap imports, which have put them against the wall. US manufacturing falls back into contraction in April, prices rise Economic activity in US manufacturing contracted in April after expanding in March, according to the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey released on Wednesday. SABIC Q1 net income falls 62%, warns of industry overcapacity SABIC's net income fell by 62% year on year to Saudi Riyal (SR) 250 million in the first quarter amid a drop in prices and sales volumes, the chemicals major said late on Wednesday. US TiO2 producer Kronos to shut down production via sulfate process in Varennes, Canada Kronos Worldwide, a titanium dioxide (TiO2) producer headquartered in Dallas, Texas, US is planning to permanently shut down sulfate-based production at its location in Varennes, Quebec, Canada. US Huntsman assets in Europe spare from energy hit, but EU policies erratic – CEO Huntsman’s assets in Europe are not energy intensive and have been spared from the energy crisis, but more broadly, the 27-country EU is still lacking a comprehensive policy to address the issue, the CEO at US chemicals major Huntsman said on Friday.

06-May-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 3 April 2024. Asian BD discussions under pressure as buying slows down By Ai Teng Lim 03-May-24 11:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian spot butadiene (BD) import discussions are slipping due to slowing demand, fueled by holiday closures this week and persistent external macroeconomic headwinds. SABIC Q1 net income falls 62%, warns of industry overcapacity By Nurluqman Suratman 02-May-24 10:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–SABIC's net income fell by 62% year on year to Saudi Riyal (SR) 250 million in the first quarter amid a drop in prices and sales volumes, the chemicals major said late on Wednesday. CHINAPLAS ’24: PODCAST: China's polymer industry targeting high-end products amid fierce competition By Zhibo Xiao 30-Apr-24 16:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ICIS analysts Sijia Li, Yvonne Shi, Zhibo Xiao, Lucy Shuai, Joanne Wang and Cindy Qiu discuss the trends in China's polyolefins and polyester markets. China domestic acetic acid demand to weaken; sellers eye more exports By Jady Ma 30-Apr-24 11:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s domestic acetic acid market may face headwinds from increased supply and weaker demand in May after generally firming up in April, while producers are exporting more volumes. Asia BPA makers will not increase run rates until margins improve By Li Peng Seng 29-Apr-24 12:25 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian bisphenol A (BPA) makers are expected to stay entrenched in the months ahead despite falling Chinese imports, as they seek to combat firm feedstock costs. Saudi Aramco, Chinese Rongsheng plan liquids-to-chemicals JV in Jubail By Nurluqman Suratman 29-Apr-24 11:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi energy giant Aramco and Chinese Rongsheng Petrochemical are planning a joint venture liquid-to-chemicals expansion project in Jubail, Saudi Arabia.

06-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global hydrogen solutions provider Plug Power has announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Allied Green Ammonia (AGA) to supply electrolyzer capacity for a proposed ammonia facility in Australia. The terms call for up to 3 gigawatts of electrolyzer capacity for AGA’s upcoming hydrogen to ammonia facility with the company stating that the green hydrogen produced by their electrolyzers help decarbonize the ammonia production process. AGA plans to establish a 2,500 tonne per day green ammonia operation with the proposed location at Gove Peninsula seen as being strategically placed to align with Asia trading partnerships. Following the MOU, Plug and AGA plan to enter an agreement to initiate a Basic Engineering and Design Package (BEDP) for the project. The BEDP is expected to advance mid-May of this year, with final investment decision planned for Q4 2025, with the progressive delivery of the 3GW electrolyzer supply slated to begin in Q1 2027. “Ammonia producers have recognized the substantial advantages of cost and carbon reduction through electrolysis-based hydrogen,” said Andy Marsh, Plug Power CEO. “We’re thrilled to sign this MOU and partner with AGA. Our expertise in constructing and operating large-scale hydrogen production facilities and our PEM electrolyzer manufacturing capability to support their 3GW project position us as the ideal partner for this endeavor.” AGA said this agreement is a critical first step and a testament to the alignment of the companies’ respective visions. “This agreement, in light of Plug’s unrivalled expertise and complementary technologies, is a strong vote of confidence in our capabilities and a significant milestone in the planned delivery of Allied Green’s facility, which will be one of the most energy efficient green hydrogen and green ammonia projects globally,” said Alfred Benedict, Allied Green Ammonia managing director.

03-May-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global average rates for shipping containers rose for the first time since January, workers at freight rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted in favor of a strike, and the US regulator that oversees railroads finalized a rule allowing reciprocal switching, highlighting this week’s logistics roundup. CONTAINER RATES Shipping container rates have been rising steadily since December when attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels in the Red Sea forced carriers to take the longer route around the tip of the African continent before leveling off last week. This week, the global average for 40-foot shipping containers rose by 1%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates from Shanghai to the US East Coast edged slightly higher, but rates from China to the West Coast edged slightly lower, as shown in the following chart. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said that the overall container market has settled into a new routine that avoids the Red Sea. “Though significant backlogs, congestion and equipment shortages seen during the first few weeks of the crisis have dissipated, adjustments have resulted in some moderate but ongoing disruptions,” Levine said in a weekly update. He said that even after falling drastically since the beginning of the year, prices remain well above normal and are likely to increase relative to this new floor as demand is set to increase for peak season. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID CHEMICAL TANKERS US liquid chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were unchanged this week. From the US Gulf (USG) to Asia, the market has been quieter this week as a holiday-shortened week has sidelined some key players. There have been only a few parcels quoted, which is placing downward pressure on freight rates for smaller lots. Larger base cargoes of monoethylene glycol (MEG), methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), and methanol have been popular chemicals on this route, keeping larger freight rates steady. From the USG to India, the market has been very quiet. PORT OF BALTIMORE Since the opening of a fourth channel into the Port of Baltimore, 171 commercial vessels have transited the waterway, including five of the vessels that were trapped inside the port after the containership Dali struck the Key Bridge, causing it to collapse, according to the Unified Command (UC). The MSC Passion III entered the port on 29 April, according to vesselfinder.com, making it the first container ship to enter the port since the accident. The closing of the port did not have a significant impact on the chemicals industry as chemicals make up only about 4% of total tonnage that moves through the port, according to data from the American Chemistry Council (ACC). The ACC said less than 1% of all chemicals involved in waterborne commerce, both domestic and trade volumes, pass through Baltimore. But a market participant in Ohio told ICIS previously that it is seeing delays in delivery times for imports as vessels originally destined to offload in Baltimore are getting re-routed to other ports. PANAMA CANAL Wait times for non-booked vessels ready for transit edged for higher both directions this week, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) vessel tracker and as shown in the following image. Wait times a week ago were 2.5 days for northbound traffic and 5.6 for southbound traffic. The PCA will increase the number of slots available for Panamax vessels to transit the waterway beginning 16 May and will add another slot for Neopanamax vessels on 1 June based on the present and projected water levels in Gatun Lake. RAILROADS Workers at freight rail carriers Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) have voted in favor of a strike. A first work stoppage could occur as early as 22 May, if no new collective agreements are reached by then, officials at labor union Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) said in a televised announcement on 1 May. The rail carriers warned that a work stoppage would disrupt supply chains throughout North America and constrain trade between Canada and the US and Mexico. The two railroads account for the bulk of freight rail traffic in Canada. Meanwhile, chemical industry participants were largely supportive of a final rule adopted by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) on reciprocal switching for inadequate service by railroads, but think the scope was too narrow and it does not cover a significant portion of rail traffic. For the first time, the STB said it is requiring that three service metrics be maintained on a standardized basis across all Class 1 railroads. In the US, chemical railcar loadings represent about 20% of chemical transportation by tonnage, with trucks, barges and pipelines carrying the rest. In Canada, chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. Rail is also the predominant shipping method for US ethanol. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan and Stefan Baumgarten Please see the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

03-May-2024