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2024 and beyond: global chemicals outlook

The global landscape for chemicals has changed significantly, with a lower demand growth expected to persist, however within these challenges and changes lies opportunity for those who adapt.

Chemicals news

Entire AmSty JV is for sale, not just Trinseo's 50% stake – Trinseo CEO

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The entire Americas Styrenics (AmSty) joint venture (JV) is for sale, and not just Trinseo’s 50% stake, Trinseo CEO Frank Bozich said on Thursday. The company announced in March it started the process to sell its 50% in the styrene and polystyrene (PS) JV with Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem). During Trinseo’s Q1 earnings call on Thursday, Bozich clarified that the entire AmSty was for sale, not just Trinseo’s stake. He added that since the March announcement, Trinseo has seen indications of interest from a number of potential strategic and financial buyers. He did not name potential buyers or say how much money Trinseo expects from the sale. The process of “actively” marketing the JV has not yet started, he said. The JV agreement between Trinseo and CPChem includes a number “prescriptive elements” that need to be completed before a joint marketing of the JV begins, he said. Trinseo expects a deal with a buyer to be signed by early 2025 and will use the proceeds from its share from the sale of AmSty to pay down debt, he added. Trinseo is also trying to sell its wholly owned styrenics assets. The company's other businesses include Latex Binders, Base Plastics and Engineered Materials. Additional reporting by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a cup made of polystyrene. (Image by ICIS)

09-May-2024

Brazil’s Braskem deliveries safe despite Triunfo shutdown taking off third of capacity – CFO

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem will be able to deliver material to its customers from its other three sites in Brazil after it declared force majeure at its Triunfo complex following heaving flooding in the area, Brazilian polymers major CFO Pedro Freitas said on Thursday. Freitas did not clarify when the company expects its facilities in Triunfo, state of Rio Grande do Sul, could return to operations as the area reels from floods which started on 29 April. Freitas said Braskem’s facilities there – which account for 30% of its production capacity in Brazil – were not directly affected by the flooding, but the company is founding difficulties in transport to and from the complex. The floods in Rio do Grande do Sul, Brazil’s worst in 80 years, have caused widespread road blockages, landslides and a dam collapse. “The blockages made our operations inviable. Our assets are 100% safe and were not affected, but we are having difficulties with transport: from the coaches transporting our employees to the trucks taking material out,” said Freitas. “We contemplated bringing employees in by helicopter, but that wasn’t viable in for an extended period to keep operations running. In those conditions, we decided to stop operations in a safe and controlled manner.” The CFO was speaking to reporters and chemical equity analysts on Thursday following the publication of Braskem’s Q1 financial results. Despite Freitas’ assurances, the company only produces some polyethylene (PE) grades at its Triunfo facilities, and ⁠sources have said supply of products such as high density polyethylene (HDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) could tighten in the force majeure goes on for an extended period. The same happens for some polypropylene (PP) products. In Brazil, Braskem is the sole manufacturer of PE and PP. Its market shares in 2023 were about 56% and 70%, respectively, according to figures from the ICIS Supply & Demand Database (SNDD). Brazil’s PP capacity is nearly 2 million tonnes/year, while PE capacity is about 3 million tonnes/year, of which 41% is HDPE, 33% is linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and 26% is LDPE. The Triunfo complex can produce 740,000 tonnes/year of PP, 550,000 tonnes/year of HDPE, 385,000 tonnes/year of LDPE and 300,000 tonnes/year of LLDPE. Triunfo PP capacity accounts for nearly 37% of Brazil’s PP capacity, while PE capacity accounts for about 40%. Difficulties in transport of employees at the Triunfo petrochemicals hub has also been the main reason for other chemicals companies in the complex such Innova and Arlanxeo to declare force majeure from their facilities. RAINS RETURN Rio Grande do Sul’s floods have brought the state to a standstill and, to make matters worse, rains returned on Wednesday, 8 May and forced some rescue operations for the more than 100,000 residents displaced to be suspended. In those conditions, Freitas would not venture in forecasting when the Triunfo complex could return to operations. “It could be some days still [to return to normal operations], perhaps more than a week. But with the rain back, we cannot really forecast when it will be,” said Freitas. “But we are optimising our sales from our other sites in the states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia.” RECOVERY AT LAST? Braskem’s CEO, Roberto Bischoff, also present at the press conference, concluded saying that Braskem’s improved earnings during Q1 were the sign that things were improving for the company and Brazil’s chemicals producer generally. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) improved both year on year and quarter on quarter, although sales posted a more mixed result while the company posted again a net loss for the quarter. Braskem (in $ million) Q1 2024 Q1 2023 Change Q4 2023 Change Q1 vs Q4 Sales 3,618 3,743 -3% 3,369 7% EBITDA 230 205 12% 211 9% Net profit/loss -273 35 N/A -317 -14% “We are seeing better spreads in petrochemicals. After the efforts by the company to improve our financial resilience, we expect the results of that will continue showing for the rest of 2024,” concluded the CEO. Front page picture: Braskem's facilities in Triunfo, Brazil (Source: Braskem) With additional reporting by Bruno Menini

09-May-2024

PODCAST: Weak demand expected for Asia propylene and downstream PO

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's propylene market will continue to see weak demand, although potential curbs in plant run rates in China amid weak margins could lend support. Downstream, China’s propylene oxide (PO) import demand may continue to be adversely impacted by domestic Chinese start-up capacities, while demand in the main downstream polyols sector is unlikely to recover in the second quarter (Q2). South Korea June-loading propylene volumes likely to increase month on month Domestic Chinese PO start-ups to keep domestic supply lengthy, hampering import demand Global PO supply excluding China remains tight, downstream polyols likely muted in Q2 In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Julia Tan and Shannen Ng discuss trends in the Asian propylene and PO markets.

09-May-2024

NPE '24: BASF Corp CEO optimistic of agreement at next UN plastic treaty talks

ORLANDO (ICIS)–BASF Corp CEO Mike Heinz is optimistic that a binding agreement could be reached during the next round of negotiations of the UN plastic waste treaty, he said on Wednesday. BASF had sent a team to the previous round that was held in Ottawa, he said. "The feedback that we received from them was cautiously optimistic." Heinz made his comments in an interview with ICIS at this year’s NPE: The Plastics Show. He also gave the keynote address at the trade show. Another reason for optimism is that all of the parties are pursuing the same objective: to prevent plastic waste from entering the environment, Heinz said. An agreement would be one that all stakeholders could live with. He acknowledged some disagreement about how to achieve that objective. Some want to curb production of plastic, he said. BASF and others want to achieve it by curbing pollution. Already, BASF and other chemical companies are incorporating recycled materials into their products. Recycling can be part of a larger sustainable production chain, under which chemical complexes rely on renewable energy to make products from recycled and renewable materials that can be recovered and reused. These materials can be used to make wind blades, electric vehicles (EVs) and other products critical to reducing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Heinz summed up the path to a sustainable future as resting on three three pillars: make, use and recycle. SUSTAINABILITY VERBUNDDuring his speech and in a subsequent interview with ICIS, Heinz described what could be characterized as a Verbund based on sustainability. "This will take some time, but the good news is we already have some concrete examples on how it can be done," Heinz said. As an example, he held up a jacket made with 100% recycled nylon 6 from BASF that was sold by Inditex, the owner the clothing brand Zara. Heinz pointed to BASF's equity stakes in European wind packs. By 2030, BASF wants green energy to account for 60% of its power consumption. For chemical companies, one of the most power-hungry processes is steam cracking. BASF, SABIC and Linde are developing an e-cracker that would rely on electric furnaces to generate the heat needed to produce ethylene. The electricity could come from renewable sources, which would significantly reduce the CO2 emissions of steam cracking. Crackers can process renewable naphtha made from natural oils or pyrolysis oil produced at chemical recycling plants. It will take time for these feedstocks to become abundant, but the model is possible, and BASF is making chemicals with such feedstocks. New, renewable feedstocks can lead to new chemistries that result in materials that have better qualities than those based on petroleum.  The products can also help customers achieve their own sustainability goals. Lighter plastics can allow automobiles to travel farther on a tank of gasoline or on a battery charge. Other plastics will be critical to make EVs safe. Products can be designed to last longer, he said. When they do reach the end of their lifecycles, they can be designed to be easier to recover and recycle. STEPS NEEDED TO ACHIEVE SUSTAINABILITYDuring his keynote speech, Heinz noted that while the chemical industry is part of the problem, it can be a bigger part of the solution. Change will require passionate people, innovation and collaboration, he said. In particular, the chemical industry needs to collaborate with lawmakers and nongovernmental organizations (NGO) to come up with those solutions. Produced by Plastics Industry Association (PLASTICS), NPE: The Plastics Show takes place 6-10 May in Orlando, Florida. Interview article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows a plastic bottle, which can be recycled. Image by monticello/imageBROKER/Shutterstock

08-May-2024

PODCAST: Synthetic fuels poised to lead decarbonisation of transport sector – Zero Petroleum CEO

LONDON (ICIS)–In this latest podcast, markets editor Nazif Nazmul interviews Paddy Lowe, CEO and founder of the synthetic fuels producing company Zero Petroleum. Synthetic fuels can play a vital role in slashing emissions across the transport sector in the coming years, although the road to scaling up is fraught with obstacles, as well as opportunities. Synthetic fuels, also known as e-fuels, are derived from renewable electricity, air and water. The power-to-liquid process entails chemical conversion of energy. Energy density of synthetic fuels and compatibility with international combustion engine (ICE) vehicles could provide a long-term decarbonisation alternative to electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuels Rail, marine, aviation, agricultural sectors can utilise synthetic fuels alongside road transport Synthetic fuels gaining traction in the aviation industry in the form of e-SAF Achieving cost parity with fossil-based gasoline will still take approximately 10 more years Legislative support likely to expedite time needed to achieve economies of scale Production process reliant on sourcing vast amount of renewable energy Click here to open in a new window.

08-May-2024

German industrial production falls 0.4% in March as producers lack new orders

LONDON (ICIS)–German industrial production fell 0.4% in March month on month, but output from the chemical-pharmaceuticals sector rose slightly according to statistical data released on Wednesday. Bundesbank, chem-pharma production order volume index (2021=100): March 2024 February 2024 March 2023 Q1 2024 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 92.6 91.6 85.7 90.1 84.6 86.3 Production in the energy-intensive industries, which includes chemicals, remained flat month on month in March but rose 4.8% in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023. In the automotive industry, which is an important end market for chemicals, March production rose 0.6% from February. March 2024 production +/- change from February Total output from industry, construction and energy -0.4% Industrial production -0.4% -Intermediate goods -0.6% -Capital goods 0.1% -Consumer goods -1.4% Energy -4.2% Construction 1.0% (source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden) Industrial production was down 3.4% from March 2023 while total production from industry, construction and energy was down 3.3%. LACK OF ORDERSAccording to a survey by the Munich-based research group ifo on Wednesday, a shortage of new manufacturing orders worsened in April, slowing the overall economy. In manufacturing, 39.5% of companies reported a lack of orders, up from 36.9% in ifo’s January survey. In the chemical industry the share of companies reporting a lack of orders was 46.6% in April. In related news, a labor union has threatened “massive” strikes in the building and construction sectors after a failure to reach a new collective agreement with their employers. Along with the auto sector, building and construction are important end markets for the chemicals industry.

08-May-2024

PODCAST: Decarbonized power sector offers opportunities for Europe chemicals resurgence

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Europe’s chemical industry stands to benefit in the long-term from the expansion of wind, solar and other low carbon methods of producing energy. – Growth in renewables means spot electricity prices can turn negative if demand dips – Europe electricity prices higher than pre-war as tied to price of natural gas, now mainly liquefied natural gas (LNG) –  Europe sees significant growth in solar, while wind faces delays due to supply chain issues – Decarbonizing includes reducing emissions from gas plants via carbon capture and storage (CCS) and other technologies – Challenges include grid infrastructure to transport electricity across regions with varying renewable output – Despite regulatory hurdles, there is political will for grid investment as part of the energy transition In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS power markets editor Andrea Battaglia, ICIS head of power analysis Matthew Jones, ICIS senior consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

08-May-2024

PODCAST: APIC ’24 – Asia PVC shaped by ample supply, impending policy changes in India

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets are expected to see some uncertainty in the coming months, with factors like China’s domestic demand, the impact of India’s monsoon and some policy changes expected to shape the landscape. June offers from Asian producers awaited next week SE Asian economies see healthy growth in Q1, expected to support PVC demand Low domestic demand in China encourages exports, especially to India In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Jonathan Chou, Damini Dabholkar and analyst Lina Xu discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia. Visit us at Booth 13 at the Grand Ballroom Foyer at the Grand InterContinental Seoul Parnas! Book a meeting with ICIS here.

08-May-2024

PODCAST: Asia BDO pressured by slowing demand in late Q2, oversupply

SHANGHAI (ICIS)–Asia’s 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market continues to be pressured by oversupply amid slowing demand. With the first peak season in March to April ending, demand in some sectors has started to slow. In this chemical podcast, ICIS markets reporter Corey Chew reports from China on market expectations before Enmore’s 14th BDO and Derivatives Development Forum.

08-May-2024

Asahi Kasei, Mitsui, Mitsubishi to start joint study on ethylene production sites

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japanese majors Asahi Kasei, Mitsui Chemicals and Mitsubishi Chemical on Wednesday said they have agreed to perform a joint feasibility study on feedstock and fuel conversion at their ethylene production facilities in western Japan to accelerate their carbon neutrality targets. "The joint feasibility study is expected to raise the speed and efficiency of the transition to carbon neutrality of the companies’ ethylene production facilities and each company’s petrochemical products," they said in a joint statement. The three companies will study "concrete measures" to drive their move towards carbon neutrality such as replacing petroleum-derived resources with biomass feedstock and conversion to low-carbon fuel, while also studying optimal future production arrangements. In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 in accordance with the target set by the Japanese government, the three chemical giants have each adopted policies to become carbon neutral by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets to effectively zero. "However, if initiatives are taken by each company individually, the speed of implementation and efficiency of GHG reduction are limited," they said. "This makes it increasingly necessary for multiple petrochemical manufacturers located nearby to cooperate with one another through mutual provision of technology and joint implementation of measures that contribute to carbon neutrality."

08-May-2024

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