By John Richardson AN assumption is that economic reformers will win control of China’s Politburo after the once-in-a-decade leadership transition is out of the way (China’s new set of leaders are set to be announced during the 18th Party Congress, which begins on 8 November). The blog believes that this assumption needs to be rigorously challenged, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Risks To Japan From China Dispute
By John Richardson THE Japanese economy is at great risk from the East China Sea dispute which, if unresolved, could result in a long and bitter trade war with China, said several chemicals industry sources. Japanese electronics and auto companies could even be forced to leave China, they warned. “If the Chinese kick Japanese companies out of […]
China PE Imports Rise On Recovery Theory
By John Richardson A SURGE in polyethylene (PE) shipments to China has exerted further stress on a market that continues to perform exceptionally badly. Total PE imports in August (the latest figures availabe) rose to 817,277 tonnes from 681,100 tonnes in July. Low-density PE (LDPE) shipments rose by 27%, high-density (HDPE) by 21% and linear low-density […]
China GDP Growth 4-5% in 2013-2020
Canton Trade Fair. Source of picture: http://www.vatti-china.com/News/83.htm By John Richardson IT would be nice to believe that the improved mood at this week’s Canton Trade Fair represents a long-term turnaround in China’s economic direction. This reflects a 9.9% increase in overall exports in September, much higher than the 5.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg […]
Saudi Aramco, Dow, Shell, IEA To Speak At Berlin Conference
Next month’s World Aromatics conference is a must-attend event for anyone involved with the industry. It features an impressive line-up of major players, including Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, as well as Dow, Shell and the International Energy Agency. Jointly organised with ICIS, it takes place on 13 – 14 November: Saudi Aramco […]
China-Japan Dispute Worsens
By John Richardson THE collapse in Japanese auto sales in China, a result of the East China Island dispute, is just the first phase in what could be a very damaging economic war, the blog understands. Phase two could be the imposition of trade barriers against Japan by an increasingly hard line Chinese leadership eager […]
No Eurozone Miracle Cure
Source of picture: Wikipedia By John Richardson THE eurozone hasn’t been rescued by the programme of sovereign bond purchases, announced a month ago by Mario Draghi. Wolfgang Munchau, in this excellent article in the Financial Times, explains why. This article is worth printing out and pinning on your office wall as a reminder that […]
Saudi Arabia’s New Export Challenge
Source of picture: Indiaagrifarms By John Richardson Saudi Arabia continues to pursue its vision of adding social value to its hydrocarbon reserves by creating jobs. This involves going further downstream from basic petrochemicals. “The Ministry of Petroleum has said, ‘we want an end to polymer tourism’ – i.e. plastic pellets leaving the Kingdom and […]
The End Of Growth
By John Richardson OUR e-book, Boom Gloom & The New Normal, is a set of ideas meant to challenge conventional wisdom. Some of our ideas will need to be adapted and discarded. But our essential point is that the New Normal represents a way of thinking as much as a set of ideas, because the world has […]
Morgan Stanley Turns Bearish
By John Richardson AN interesting new report from Morgan Stanley underlines what we have been hearing about Chinese chemicals demand. The investment bank writes: “We returned to China and offer a revised message versus our trip last year. Instead of a ‘pause” in growth’, we now see a structural slowdown. China is in the midst […]
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