Xi Jinping, China’s likely new president KeystoneUSA-ZUMA/Rex Features By John Richardson The make-up of China’s new politburo will be announced during the 18th Party Congress, which starts on 8 November. But don’t expect confirmation of the new leadership team to do anything to address doubts over the country’s long-term economic direction. China will remain in what political and economic […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The US Shale Gas Boom Will End
Don’t follow the herd… By John Richardson ISN’T it amazing how we keep getting caught out by the unexpected, from the global financial crisis to China is entering a period of much-lower growth? No, not really. As long as we keep being driven by the short attention-span of financial markets and the demands of quarterly […]
Recovery? What Recovery?
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polyethylene (PE), which is a measure of local production plus imports, rose by 4% in January-September this year compared with the same periods in 2010 and 2011, according to Global Trade Information Services (see the above chart). This is an improvement on the 1% growth seen in the January-August […]
Planning For New Growth Patterns
By John Richardson “Have you noticed that your parents spend less money than you do?” asks Merryn Somerset Webb in this Financial Times article. She agrees with us that the answer is, of course, “Yes”. This very neatly brings the issue down to a personal level, one that all of us can relate to, and […]
The BRICS Fallacy
By John Richardson THE above chart, from a new Research Note released by fellow blogger Paul Hodges, exposes the fallacy that BRICS and emerging-market growth can by themselves rescue the global economy. And, as we have highlighted before on this blog, there are no long-term guarantees that China, the big driver of BRICS growth, will continue […]
China’s Risky New Lending Surge
By John Richardson BANK lending is once again surging in China as politicians try to shore up their support ahead of the leadership transition. “The central government has approved up to 7 trillion yuan ($1.2bn) for infrastructure investments since May to spur growth,” wrote the China Daily. This represents 15% of GDP. Real-estate loans in […]
World Heading For L-Shaped Recovery
Mr Bernanke, please take note By John Richardson The recovery is always six months away and so while most people have written-off the first half of next year, the hope is that by H2 everything will be back to normal. But as fellow blogger Paul Hodges points out in this video, which he further underlines […]
Dow and DuPont Make Major Job Cuts
Dupont’s Ellen Kullman By John Richardson Dow Chemical’s decision to cut 2,400 jobs, as it posted a 32% drop in earnings per share, was the result of what CEO Andrew Liveris said was difficult conditions that “may have extended staying power, as the new reality is that we are operating in a slow-growth and […]
US Set To Adopt A Golden Rule
By John Richardson ONE of the golden rules of petrochemicals is “always run hard if you have the feedstock advantage”. As a result, the US is said to have been a little frustrated by a series of operating problems that have constrained their average capacity utilisation to around 80% in 2012. “If they had been able to they would […]
Goldman Sachs Changes Its View On Oil
By John Richardson OUR blogs are awarding themselves a pat on the back today. The reason is that investment bank Goldman Sachs, the largest player in commodity markets, has completely reversed its analysis of oil markets. They now accept our view, and that of the blog we work with very closely with, Chemicals & The […]
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