Now, please be patient – the sting is in the tail. This could have great relevance to your business….. The industry in which I work – the media – has been decimated by the Internet with billions of dollars of earnings and hundreds of thousands of livelihoods sucked out of traditional publishing by online advertising. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The flawed “science” of forecasting
Maybe I’ve been to too many conferences this year, and indeed over the last decade, and have seen too many forecasts go wrong. Call me cynical, or plain wrong, but………..
Watch out for the Black Swans and dump the consultants
The former trader turned professor, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his new book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable warns against the danger of forecasting. Forecasting is, obviously, always based on what he know and not what we don’t know. A Black Swan, by the way, is an earth-shattering event we didn’t predict […]
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