Tag Archives | BRIC

Auto sales confirm critical flaws in the BRIC concept

, It is 15 years since Goldman Sachs coined the word BRIC to highlight their argument that growth in the global economy would, in future, be led by the major emerging economies rather than the developed world.  The core concept was that China and India would become the dominant suppliers of manufactured goods and services, whilst Brazil […]

Continue Reading

Lack of affordability limits gasoline demand growth

How much of your day’s wage does it cost you to buy a US gallon of gasoline?  This chart from Bloomberg shows the answer for 61 countries, based on prices for 95 octane grade at the end of Q2:   Bankrupt Venezuela is most affordable at 1% of a day’s income (based on GDP/capita)  […]

Continue Reading

Chemical industry is the best indicator of EM outlook – and the outlook is not good

Policymakers would be better off following the fortunes of the chemical industry, if they wanted to forecast the global economy, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog Capacity utilisation (CU%) in the chemical industry has long been the best leading indicator for the global economy. The […]

Continue Reading

China’s car market: triple shock ahead

Auto manufacturers, their suppliers and investors need to prepare themselves for a triple shock from China’s slowing economy, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog The first shock is already under way. As the chart shows, China’s slowdown has caused passenger car volumes to decline in the Bric economies – […]

Continue Reading

China auto sales jump to meet pollution quota deadline

China’s auto sales moved past Europe’s in 2010, and are now close to US levels.  But even China is not expected to maintain this surge in 2014.  As the chart above shows, sales soared in the past few months (red line) versus 2012 (green).  But as the automotive association explains, this was mainly because: “Panic consumption over […]

Continue Reading
Brazil PE Aug12a.png

Brazil’s PE exports confirm its GDP slowdown

Emerging countries such as China and Brazil are very prompt in publishing trade data. So their figures provide a timely snapshot of economic developments. Brazil’s economy is heavily dependent on China, due to its mining industry. Worryingly, July polyethylene (PE) data from Global Trade Information Services thus confirms the slowdown underway in the BRIC countries […]

Continue Reading
Stocks Mar12.png

Global stock markets reverse previous losses

The blog’s 6-monthly review of major stock markets highlights their continuing volatility. Last September, all the markets were down between 7% – 22%. Germany (dark green column) was the biggest loser, whilst the UK/US (blue, red) were least impacted. Only the US 30-year Treasury bond (light green) had increased, as US interest rates fell. Please […]

Continue Reading
Global autos Jan12.png

Global auto sales growth stalls as BabyBoomers age

Cars are now the largest single market for chemical sales, as housing markets have slowed globally. Each new US car is worth $3297, for example, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC), making the US market worth $42bn in 2011. 2011 auto sales were ~59m, up 4% from 2010. The West (EU, USA, Japan) still […]

Continue Reading
stocks Sept11.png

Financial markets worry about new downturn

An abrupt change of direction is never a pleasant experience in global financial markets. Yet unfortunately, the blog’s regular 6 monthly review suggests this has started to occur since March. Investors are beginning to fear we may not be be entering a new Supercycle after all. Some are also worrying that high oil prices may […]

Continue Reading
Stocks Mar11.png

Global financial markets at important crossroads

Stock markets around the world are at an important crossroads. The blog’s regular <a href="http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy/2010/09/global-markets-decoupled-over.6 monthly review compares today’s market levels with their 2007/8 pre-Crisis peaks. And as can be seen, none have yet hit a new high. This is quite surprising, given the scale of the G20 and central bank stimulus/liquidity packages over the […]

Continue Reading