The chemical industry is always a leading indicator of the global economy. One of the blog’s oldest friends used to be a central banker, and he made no secret of the fact that our discussions about demand levels were often an important factor in his overall analysis. So it is no great surprise that the […]
Tag Archives | China
China has been a major beneficiary of the globalisation movement in recent years. In turn, it has become a tremendous importer of most chemicals. It accounts for up to 50% of total demand for many Asian chemical producers, and is a critical factor in most supply/demand balances. This position was already changing, however, as China […]
A year ago today, China banned the issue of free plastic bags from supermarkets, shops and open markets. And it seems the ban has had considerable success. Supermarkets have used 66% fewer bags, according to government figures. The ban has saved 1.6m tons of oil, whilst also reducing pollution. Although street markets seem to have […]
The Financial Times today highlights the overwhelming importance of falling US house prices to the outlook for the global economy. It notes that prices are now falling by 2.2%/month, causing a $380bn wealth loss in March alone. It adds that if prices continue to fall at this rate, “the total loss in 2009 would be […]
The high level of speculation accompanying China’s apparent economic revival worries the World Bank. “Until we see a recovery in private investment, it’s hard to get too excited about the future,” according to David Dollar, the Bank’s country director for China, at a Beijing seminar today. Dollar added that “private investment, the main driver of […]
China’s exports continue to disappoint. They fell 18% in January and 26% in February. March showed a slightly better performance, with a 17% fall. But April was weak again, with a 23% decline in exports and imports. China’s problem today is based on its past success in becoming the manufacturing capital of the world. Exports […]
The Chinese government continues to express firm faith in its economy’s ability to withstand the global economic crisis. And certainly its recent imports of chemicals and polymers have been a lifeline for many companies outside the country. But now Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, has reinforced the blog’s concerns about the economy. Wal-Mart reports that […]
BASF, the world’s largest chemical company, said today that they see “weak demand for chemical products” continuing through 2009. In response, plants and sites “will be closed or sold where necessary”. These are clear statements about the outlook, backed up by commitments to take action. Yet volumes and prices in financial markets are rising, as […]
Japan’s auto exports tumbled 71% in February, and its US exports fell 58%, causing total exports to decline 49%. Imports also fell 43%. Exports to China, however, were ‘only’ down 40%. And other NEA exporters, more dependent on Chinese markets, showed an improving position. S Korea’s exports were only down 17%, versus -34% in January. […]
Japan’s exports fell 46% in January, after a 35% fall in December. Exports to the US fell 53%, and to China fell 45%. This makes it likely that Japan’s economy will shrink further, after the 3.3% decline in 2008. It could soon become the first G-7 economy to fall into depression – defined as a […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.