The collapse of Asia’s main currencies versus the US$ confirms that our world is increasingly dominated by known unknowns. We know what the key issues might be, but we can only guess at how they might turn out.
Chemicals and the Economy
Europe’s economy loses its “engine”, as France follows Germany into political turmoil
Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today’s economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention.
Trump’s tariff war confirms geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions
The Perennials 55+ cohort have replaced babies as the main source of US population growth since 2005. They already own most of what they need. So the need for globalisation has disappeared. As Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead.
NVIDIA moves to new highs, while nearly half of major US companies have no earnings
Markets are finally rediscovering their core role of price discovery. The US 10-year rate has risen 0.5% since the Fed cut its rate by 0.5%. And so the clock is now ticking for the biggest stock market bubble of our lifetimes.
China’s cheap, well-made, Electric Vehicles take centre stage at Paris Motor Show
2025 is therefore likely to be a make-or-break year for many European automakers. Chinese automakers can already export profitably into Europe, despite the new tariffs. And they will soon be opening European plants to avoid the tariffs altogether
Chemicals industry starts to focus on Reinvention options at Berlin conference
The key is to rethink the business and become demand-led. And the good news is that companies are now starting to explore this option.
Middle East and Ukraine Wars, US election and China’s slowdown threaten ‘October surprise’ for markets
The real “October surprise” for markets might be to find out that central banks are powerless against today’s major geopolitical risks.
Deflation risks rise as OPEC aims to regain market share and cut oil prices
Oil market developments need very careful attention. If prices do now fall below $50/bbl, then central banks will likely rush to make major cuts in interest rates. And that will make deflation even more likely.
China’s economy risks heading into recession as Producer Prices enter deflation
China’s problems are spreading to the rest of the world. Not only is it exporting deflation, as its Producer Prices fall. But also, and understandably, consumer countries are introducing trade barriers to protect their own industries
OPEC+ risks losing control of oil markets
Oil traders have built a record bearish position in oil futures, as they expect consumption growth to stay weak. So it would be no surprise at all to see prices fall towards the $50/bbl level.
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