Oil markets are warning of rising economic and political risk. Prudent companies and investors will be preparing for difficult times ahead, whilst still hoping for the best.
Chemicals and the Economy
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” VIadimir Lenin
We are now back in a world where geopolitics, not economics, drives decision-making. It is a world of shifting alliances. And so defence spending is set to be a key growth area for the future as Cold War 2.0 begins.
6 ‘Rules for Success’ as tariff wars and Europe’s Clean Industrial Deal begin
The Rules for doing business have to change. As NATO’s leader, Mark Rutte, has warned, Europe needs to “Raise defense spending or start learning Russian”
China’s property crash has already destroyed $18tn of household wealth – where next?
Living longer should be a great opportunity for all of us. Today’s problem is that policymakers around the world have refused to accept that demographics are destiny. All of us now have to face the challenge of unwinding the mess they have made.
Smartphone sales confirm how ‘value for money’ is starting to drive consumer demand
The smartphone market highlights how consumers are refocusing on ‘value for money’. New product sales are slowing in response to the cost-of-living crisis. More people are now happy buying a used model.
And global brands no longer have the same attraction if the local brand works as well, and is cheaper.
Trump launches trade war with US’s top 3 trade partners; says Europe & key business sectors are next
“The Dumbest Trade War in History. Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.” Wall Street Journal editorial
2025 will be a year of ‘Known Unknowns’ – we know the problems, but not how they will play out
The collapse of Asia’s main currencies versus the US$ confirms that our world is increasingly dominated by known unknowns. We know what the key issues might be, but we can only guess at how they might turn out.
Europe’s economy loses its “engine”, as France follows Germany into political turmoil
Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today’s economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention.
Trump’s tariff war confirms geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions
The Perennials 55+ cohort have replaced babies as the main source of US population growth since 2005. They already own most of what they need. So the need for globalisation has disappeared. As Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead.
NVIDIA moves to new highs, while nearly half of major US companies have no earnings
Markets are finally rediscovering their core role of price discovery. The US 10-year rate has risen 0.5% since the Fed cut its rate by 0.5%. And so the clock is now ticking for the biggest stock market bubble of our lifetimes.
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