The West has been living with cheap money from the central banks for over 5 years. Credit has been very easy to obtain in the financial sector, and interest rates have been at all-time lows. The result can be seen in the chart above from Business Insider of total lending to fund stock purchases on the New […]
Tag Archives | Minsky
More details continue to surface of the wasteful spending that underpinned much of China’s GDP growth in recent years. The empty city of Ordos (first highlighted 3 years ago in the blog) is just one example. House prices there have recently fallen 50%, and the shadow banking system (critical for privately-owned companies) is reportedly in […]
The blog is becoming worried about the likely outlook for Q2. Sentiment now seems to be weakening alongside the fundamentals of supply/demand: • Fundamentals. The start of 2013 has been a disappointment. Demand has shown some recovery after the low levels seen at the end of Q4. But there have been few signs of any […]
Paul McCulley of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund managers, has been continually insightful about the lead-up to the current Crisis and its fall-out. He first alerted the blog to the work of Hyman Minsky, which is the best (and so far only) explanation for the disaster that is continuing to hit the world financial […]
The moment the blog has long feared has now begun to happen. Celanese chairman David Weidman said on Tuesday that acetic acid prices in Asia had dropped sharply in recent weeks. “Basically, orders just stopped”, he added. It is almost certain that this moment will now be repeated in other product areas and in other […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.