By John Richardson THE above chart shows much polyethylene (PE) we think the US will have to export by 2020, based on our latest Supply & Demand updates. This might well have changed due to delays in start-ups. Watch this space for further updates. But what about the ability of US PE producers to actually […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Sustainability Reshapes Petrochemicals Demand
By John Richardson IF you still view the petrochemicals world from only the perspective of feedstock advantage then the above chart, taken from the recent ICIS EPCA seminar, offers this very straightforward fantastic opportunity: If our higher penetration scenario for electric cars in Europe is realised then there could be lots of stranded naphtha in the region’s refineries. Refineries, rather […]
China’s Latest Real Estate Bubble And The Lessons Of History
By John Richardson ARE you still playing catch-up on China as events once again take what you think are an entirely unexpected turn? If so, you haven’t learned the lessons of the last three years. In late 2013, after the critically important Third Plenum meeting of China’s top political leaders, it was crystal clear that […]
Stunning Agreement On HFCs Offers Huge Opportunities
By John Richardson THE DELHI bank manager’s priority was to make sure his son got through medical school. He obviously therefore didn’t have that much time or energy to worry about global warming before he bought a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)-fuelled air-conditioning unit. The aim was to instead make sure his son could stay awake and night […]
Global Chemicals Operating Rates Lowest Since 1987
By John Richardson SOMETIMES one single chart is worth many thousands of words, which is the case with the chart. Hence today’s brief post as the chart tells you a great deal of what you need to know: Based on American Chemistry Council data, and borrowed from the latest PH report, it shows that average global chemicals […]
Anger Grows In The US Over Lost Economic Opportunities
By John Richardson THE US Federal Reserve is increasingly coming round to the understanding that demographics shape demand. Last week I heard about a research paper from the San Francisco Fed that made the same arguments that we made in our 2011 book, Boom Gloom and the New Normal. Now one of my LinkedIn contacts has […]
China’s New Real Estate Bubble: A LitmusTest For Economic Reforms
By John Richardson NEARLY three years on from when the Chinese central government first promised to reform local government financing, little progress appears to have been made: Local governments are still addicted to land sales to meet their funding requirements. At the heart of the problem is this: Although China might still need 800m square metres […]
Western Central Bank Finally Agrees That Ageing Populations Matter
By John Richardson FINALLY – for the first time – one of the major Western central banks is in agreement with what Paul Hodges and I have been arguing since we released our book in 2011 – Boom. Gloom & The New Normal: The retirement of the babyboomers is a critical issue. John Fernald of the San […]
Oil Prices: When The Facts Don’t Matter
By John Richardson HERE are first of all the facts from the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report: OPEC production hit a record high in September of 33.64m bbl/day. Iraq produced more oil than ever, while Libya reopened oil ports. Further boosting global supply levels is the fact that production in non-OPEC member Russia hit […]
Why The Political Populists Are Being Successful
By John Richardson HERE are some sobering statistics that mainstream politicians and economic policymakers should take note of: The real, inflation-adjusted incomes of two-thirds of households in 25 advanced economies were flat or fell between 2005 and 2014 compared with just 2% in the previous decade. Only in London and the southeast region of the […]
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