By John Richardson SOUTH Korea serves as another example of how demographics are reshaping Asian economic prospects. “By 2018, 14% of its population will be over 65, making it officially an ‘aged society.’ That is six years sooner than Japan and more than a century before France, according to the Samsung Economic Research Institute,” writes […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Weak PE Margins Reflect Big Picture
By John Richardson BEFORE we look at last week’s political handover in China in more detail tomorrow, while on Friday we will return to our theme of Asian demographics, the above slide illustrates what the big picture has meant for the polyethylene (PE) industry. As you can see, variable-cost margins for Northeast Asian producers fell […]
Asian Demographics Change Demand Patterns
THIS blog was once criticised for devoting too much time to the big picture – e.g. politics, economics and demographics – one of the major themes of our free e-book, Boom, Gloom & The New Normal. We beg to differ. While studying chemical-plant operating rates, new capacities, feedstock advantages and logistics etc are, of course, […]
Risks To Japan From China Dispute
By John Richardson THE Japanese economy is at great risk from the East China Sea dispute which, if unresolved, could result in a long and bitter trade war with China, said several chemicals industry sources. Japanese electronics and auto companies could even be forced to leave China, they warned. “If the Chinese kick Japanese companies out of […]
China-Japan Dispute Worsens
By John Richardson THE collapse in Japanese auto sales in China, a result of the East China Island dispute, is just the first phase in what could be a very damaging economic war, the blog understands. Phase two could be the imposition of trade barriers against Japan by an increasingly hard line Chinese leadership eager […]
Putting The Genie Back In The Bottle
Source of picture: Flickr By John Richardson “How do you put the genie back in the bottle?” asked China scholar Victoria Hui in this New York Times article, referring to the difficulty that China now faces in stepping away with something tangible from its dispute with Japan over the East China Sea islands. Japan […]
Asia Faces More Asset Bubbles
Marc Faber Source of picture: http://www.cliffkule.com/2011_06_26_archive.html By John Richardson RECENT action by Western central banks will result in more hot money flowing into Asia, creating further asset-price bubbles. Last week, the Fed launched QE3 and the previous week, the European Central Bank launched its bond-buying programme. Equity markets in China could also surge by 10-20 […]
The Best Of All Possible Worlds
Source of graph: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/ By John Richardson “Candide, the classic novel of the great French writer Voltaire, is a satirical description of a young man who has been taught that ‘everything is for the best in the best of all possible worlds’,” wrote Paul Hodges in this blog post last week. Thus, we have […]
China Textile Exports Decline
Source: http://www.economist.com/ By John Richardson RISING China labour costs are compounding weakness in the manufacturing sector and thereby, of course, damaging chemicals and polymer markets. The country’s garment exports fell by 0.2 percent in the first seven months of this year, compared with a 24 percent increase in January-July 2011, says the Association of Chinese […]
China PE Demand Weakness Continues
By John Richardson LET’S put this into context: China’s polyethylene (PE) demand grew by 53 percent in 2008-2010. Growth during the first seven months of this year was just 1.7 percent over Januuary-July 2011, according to Global Trade Information Services (GTIS). And when compared with the same seven months in 2010 growth was flat, as the […]
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