Source of Picture: Australiannews.com In this article in the South China Morning Post (you can register for free for 14 days if you are not already a subscriber) Michael Pettis makes the argument that China is taking a big risk by stockpiling commodites such as iron ore, copper and oil. Inventory building is on the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
What I Want to Know in H2 – Part One
How will this one run? Source of Picture: chemicals-technology.com In the 12 years I’ve been covering the chemicals industry I don’t think I have come across a time of such exceptional market muddle. The traders love it. As a wise man said to me the other day, “When I was a trader I only cared […]
Chemicals company H2 complacency?
Chemical companies as a whole displayed “dangerously complacent” views about second-half 2009 prospects when they released their Q2 results late last week, argues chemicals analyst Paul Satchell in his blog. “They believe that demand has bottomed. Although they can’t see the upturn yet they believe the worst is definitely behind us,” writes Satchell. “This blog […]
China inventory sentiment survey
Peering through the fog On the theme of data again, in the ideal world it might be possible to send thousands of hardworking foot solders out into the field in China to chase down every warehouse of polymers and count every single pallet of polyolefins. Not not really – don’t talk nonsense; in reality, this […]
Lies, damned lies and data
“Excuse me, are you sure about that?” Source of Picture: bshort.org A wise man said to me recently: “All data is wrong; all you can do is make sure you are consistently wrong”. Now this is absolutely not meant to be any criticism whatsoever of what consultants or other market observers do for a living. […]
Asia anxious over the wrong kind growth
Like this for a while longer? Source of Picture: Bahnuprasad.net/blog The question, of course, is what is the right kind of growth? If you are trader of whatever kind the only growth you care about is in aset values. In other words the more bubbles the better and as long as you get out in […]
China polyethylene inventories are high
A Mars Bar feast in store if crude hits $30/bbl again Source of Picture: Amazon.com Polyethylene (PE) inventories in China at the second and third local distributor levels are at very high levels, two reliable industry sources have told us. This has led to some confusion in the […]
Will Fiscal Rebalancing Trigger A Trade War?
Ron Kirk faces a tough balancing act Source of Picture: United States Mission – Geneva “The rebuilt American economy must be export-oriented and less consumption-oriented,” said Larry Summers, Director of the US President’s National Economic Council, earlier this month. But, as The Economist says in this article, this will be a little like turning a […]
Is Dalian setting the markets?
Make your own mind up about the role of the Dalian Commodity Exchange linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) futures contracts from the interviews below. The first quote is from Sinopec – from an ICIS news story. There then follows my interviews with a major Asian producer and a consultant based in Asia. […]
Where Have All The Flowers/Polymers Gone?
Source of Picture: http://backincccp.blogspot.com/ Peter Seeger’s most-famous song (being performed here by Pete, Bob Dylan, Judy Collins and Arlo Guthrie) was “Where Have All The Flowers Gone?” Perhaps a new version should be cut entitled, “Where Have All The Polymers Gone?” when you start to piece together China’s imports during the H1 2009 versus plastic-production […]
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