By John Richardson THE more that China’s economy weakens, the greater the hope of a recovery in the second half of this year. This type of thinking was in evidence last week. The release of a raft of disappointing economic data for April boosted the confidence of some people in the petrochemicals industry that China’s […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Inflation Challenge
By John Richardson In our third post on the context behind last week’s steep fall in polyolefins prices,and the prospects for a recovery, we look at inflation – one of China’s numerous economic challenges…..I NFLATION remains a major threat in China, hence the government is unable to make the cuts in interest rates necessary to […]
Saudi Worries About China Netbacks
By John Richardson Here is the first of a three blog posts on what is happening in China’s polyolefins markets. Today, we look at the Middle East and tomorrow and Thursday we present the perspective of traders and Western-headquartered polyolefin producers. The series is in response to what we believe is a turning […]
Canton Trade Fair Disappoints
By John Richardson THE total value of export orders at the latest Canton Trade Fair, which finished this weekend, declined by 4.8% compared with the previous event in October last year. This is the first decline in the value of orders at the bi-annual fair since May 2009, when the world was in the […]
MEG Continues To Struggle
By John Richardson THE above chart is a further illustration of what we believe is the wrong consensus view over China. Q1 2012 mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) imports surged by 30% compared with the same period last year, as traders bet on a sharp rebound in China’s economy. They believed all the talk of more local […]
North America Manufacturing Rebound
By John Richardson THIS fascinating slide from Accenture, in a new study that the consultancy is about to release on the rebound in North American manufacturing competitiveness, quantifies the steep rise in relative labour costs in China between 2001 and 2011. And this process is likely to accelerate as China attempts to narrow the […]
China PE Demand Down 4 Percent
By John Richardson CHEMICALS analysts, and some senior company executives, are telling us that growth in China will bounce back in the second half of 2012. To give these forecasts some historical context, the recovery was supposed to happen in January, then February, then March, then April and now at some point in the […]
Dow Sees China Growth Acceleration
By John Richardson DOW Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris said in an earnings call, following the release of the company’s Q1 results: “China is stabilising and growth is likely to accelerate later this year as their government keeps shifting its policies to inspire and incentivise domestic growth.” An industry observer agreed, and added: “I’m still sticking […]
A Polyolefin Trader’s Perspective
By John Richardson Word for word, see below what an Asian polyolefins trader told us yesterday: “This year has been absolutely terrible, the worst I can remember in eight years in this business, and even worse than 2008. There is just no demand out there. “There was supposed to be a recovery after the Chinese […]
Consensus Misses The Point
By John Richardson The consensus view on China remains that we have reached, or are near, the bottom of the decline in GDP (gross domestic product) growth. This was how yesterday’s release of the preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for April was interpreted. Although the index contracted for the sixth month in a […]
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