…and in the process, it could radically reshape global geopolitics, economic growth patterns and chemicals trade flows By John Richardson THE above map, from this excellent FT Beyondbricks blog post by Paul Hodges and Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga, illustrates why demographics always drive economic growth. If you don’t follow and understand demographics, you won’t understand economics. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Shift In Lending Patterns Indicate Slower 2017 China Growth
By John Richardson WE HAVE now seen two months of a very important shift in the pattern of credit growth in China: In January, new local-currency bank loans were Rmb2.13 trillion ($310bn).. This was far above December’s Rmb994bn, but there is always a big seasonal surge in lending every January. Crucially, this January’s figure was below the Rmb2.54 trillion during the […]
Polyethylene Markets To Become More Regional, Less Global
By John Richardson THE GREAT US author Mark Twain, pictured on the right, needed to pay off his debts. So in May 1897, he was in London during a round-the-world speaking tour designed to raise the money to pay off his debts. People don’t usually turn up to see dead people speak. He was therefore a […]
China Becomes Dominant Superpower: Implications For Petchems
By John Richardson CHINA can become the world’s No1 Superpower, replacing the US, if it can rise to challenges such as these: Asia needs US$8trn of investment in the decade to 2020 to deal with its infrastructure deficit. As countries with urban populations expand, demand for transport, logistics and utilities will place a major burden […]
Make Global Trade War In 2017 Your Base Case Scenario
By John Richardson WE are trapped in a cycle of economic policymaking failure that has already led to a retreat in global free trade. What happens next could well be a global trade war as soon as next year. The computer models built by the US Federal Reserve said that there was no systemic risk […]
The US And China: Saudi Arabia’s Big Picture Oil Strategy
By John Richardson THE above chart should tell you a great deal of what you need to know about Saudi Aramco’s interest in buying the LyondellBasell Industries (LBI) refinery that’s located in the Houston Ship Canal in the US: Between January 2007 and October of this year, the Eagle Ford shale-oil field in Texas will have seen the efficiency […]
China And Iran: Reshaping Global Polyester Trade
By John Richardson IN TODAY’S world you have to start with political, social and macroeconomic factors to help build your map of global chemicals trade flows over the next ten years. You next need to consider the old standard measures of feedstock availability, access to technology and logistics costs etc. Why are these traditional ways of […]
China’s One Belt, One Road To Reshape Petchems Trade Flows
By John Richardson THE ONE Belt, One Road initiative is a crucial element in China’s efforts to economically re-invent itself – and this reinvention has to work if China is to avoid economic stagnation. We therefore know that One Belt, One Road will remain a major government priority. And McKinsey has provided important details on […]
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