By John Richardson CHINA could raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% and its propylene capacity by at least 21%, according to my latest analysis of a major new wave of naphtha, ethane and LPG crackers. The above chart is an update of the chart I first published back in June. In detail: […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US Trade Agenda Threatens 49% Of US Polyethylene Exports
By John Richardson WHICH President Trump will end up setting the final direction of policy? Will it be the President Trump who spoke off-script at a campaign-style rally in Phoenix, Arizona, this week or the President who a day later addressed military veterans in Reno, Nevada, in much more measured tones? Or will the ultimate […]
China To Drive 55% Of Global Polyethylene Growth In 2007-2017….
.…Major risks ahead from this over-dependence on China By John Richardson FOLLOWING on from my post on Friday, which showed almost exactly the same story for polypropylene (PP), see the above chart detailing the importance to the global polyethylene (PE) business of China’s consumption growth. Over-exposure to China is a greater risk in the […]
China’s OBOR Creates “Win, Win” Demographic Solutions…
…and in the process, it could radically reshape global geopolitics, economic growth patterns and chemicals trade flows By John Richardson THE above map, from this excellent FT Beyondbricks blog post by Paul Hodges and Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga, illustrates why demographics always drive economic growth. If you don’t follow and understand demographics, you won’t understand economics. […]
Shift In Lending Patterns Indicate Slower 2017 China Growth
By John Richardson WE HAVE now seen two months of a very important shift in the pattern of credit growth in China: In January, new local-currency bank loans were Rmb2.13 trillion ($310bn).. This was far above December’s Rmb994bn, but there is always a big seasonal surge in lending every January. Crucially, this January’s figure was below the Rmb2.54 trillion during the […]
Polyethylene Markets To Become More Regional, Less Global
By John Richardson THE GREAT US author Mark Twain, pictured on the right, needed to pay off his debts. So in May 1897, he was in London during a round-the-world speaking tour designed to raise the money to pay off his debts. People don’t usually turn up to see dead people speak. He was therefore a […]
China Becomes Dominant Superpower: Implications For Petchems
By John Richardson CHINA can become the world’s No1 Superpower, replacing the US, if it can rise to challenges such as these: Asia needs US$8trn of investment in the decade to 2020 to deal with its infrastructure deficit. As countries with urban populations expand, demand for transport, logistics and utilities will place a major burden […]
What Exclusion From China’s One Belt, One Road Looks Like
By John Richardson IS the whole world really turning again free trade? No, if you consider the potential improvement in trade flows between the 65 mainly developing countries which make up China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. What we could instead see is the creation of the world’s biggest free-trade bloc, accounting for 40% […]
Make Global Trade War In 2017 Your Base Case Scenario
By John Richardson WE are trapped in a cycle of economic policymaking failure that has already led to a retreat in global free trade. What happens next could well be a global trade war as soon as next year. The computer models built by the US Federal Reserve said that there was no systemic risk […]
The US And China: Saudi Arabia’s Big Picture Oil Strategy
By John Richardson THE above chart should tell you a great deal of what you need to know about Saudi Aramco’s interest in buying the LyondellBasell Industries (LBI) refinery that’s located in the Houston Ship Canal in the US: Between January 2007 and October of this year, the Eagle Ford shale-oil field in Texas will have seen the efficiency […]
Jump to page: