By John Richardson CHINA’S demand for polyethylene (PE) is lower than immediately ahead of the February Chinese New Year (CNY) break, said a Singapore-based polyolefins trader. “For demand to be less than just before the New Year, when most traders had already pulled out of the market to avoid cargoes being stranded at ports during […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Credit, Commodities Bubble
By John Richardson China announced last week that its state-owned banks had lent Rmb1.07 trillion ($172m) in January, which was more than double the amount in December. Financial markets have taken as evidence that the economic recovery has gained momentum. But when you combine January-February lending for 2012 in order to get rid of the […]
China Lending Declines In October
By John Richardson POLITICS, politics and politics are three most important factors that need to be evaluated when assessing the direction of China’s economy. Thus, in the short term it appears that the surge in bank lending from May to September might well have been to create the illusion of a robust economy ahead of the […]
China’s Risky New Lending Surge
By John Richardson BANK lending is once again surging in China as politicians try to shore up their support ahead of the leadership transition. “The central government has approved up to 7 trillion yuan ($1.2bn) for infrastructure investments since May to spur growth,” wrote the China Daily. This represents 15% of GDP. Real-estate loans in […]
“Good News” Over China Bank Lending
By John Richardson CHINA’S new local currency lending rose to 703.9 billion Yuan ($111 billion) last month, way ahead of July’s 540.1 billion Yuan. If a you are trader in the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s futures contract in linear-low density (LLDPE) you can take this ostensibly encouraging number, and premier Wen Jiabao’s speech earlier this week about […]
No Relief For China SMEs
By John Richardson THE consensus view is that China’s economy bottomed out in H1 and will see a recovery in GDP growth during the second half. Much hope has been attached to more government stimulus delivering a short-term boost to growth, even if there are concerns over the long-term damage that further investment-driven GDP could cause. […]
Impact of China’s Latest Rate Rise – Part 1
Here is the first of two posts that will analyse the implications of China’s decision to raise interest rates for the third time this year By John Richardson CHINA’S decision to once again raise interest rates will put further pressure on the hard-pressed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that make up the bulk of the country’s chemicals and polymer […]
China Chems Liquidity Boost To Continue?
Lots more empty ones like these? Source of picture: http://www.chrismartenson.com By John Richardson THE dramatic increase in China’s money supply during 2009 – the result of an estimated 10 trillion Yuan increase in lending over the previous year – might continue to support plastics and chemicals demand growth during the rest 2010, an industry source suggested […]
Asian Aromatics Crawl Towards Post-Chinese New Year
A roar or a whimper? Source of picture: http://break4fun.zarke.net By John Richardson THE ASIAN aromatics market has had “both its legs chopped off below the knees, and has also had its proverbial hands broken,” said an Asian-based petrochemicals consultant today. “As a result, we are crawling in a great deal of pain towards what […]
China PVC Capacity Binge Clobbers Northeast Asia
By John Richardson CHINA’S capacity expansions in industries including steel, aluminium and petrochemicals continue to astound. Take polyvinyl chloride (PVC) for example., where, according to a new report by ChemSystems, “capacity (in China) has expanded from 5m tonne/year in 2003 to over 15m tonne/year in 2009, almost 90 percent of total global capacity expansion over […]
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