By John Richardson The muddle and confusion that has characterises forecasts for Chinese chemicals demand continues – and with all this persistent uncertainty comes a great deal of nervousness about volumes in the second half of 2010. So far so good for this year, despite a 43% drop in bank lending during Q1 2010 compared […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China: Yet More Record Imports
By John Richardson The extraordinary China import story continues, raising yet more questions about where all these volumes are going at a time when the government is trying to cool the economy down. Does this mean that speculation continues apace because of all the money still sloshing around the economy thanks to last year’s record […]
China’s GDP Growth Out Of Official Comfort Zone
By John Richardson China’s first-quarter GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 11.9% – the number released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics – is way above the 9.5% that the chairman of a major local bank has reportedly said is the maximum the economy can sustain for the full year. “It (too-rapid growth) will […]
China Polyolefins Growth Forecast To Slump
Follow us on Twitter By John Richardson CHINA’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) demand growth is set for a dramatic decline in 2010-12, according to the latest estimates from Shanghai-based commodities information service CBI (see table at the end of this blog post). This year was probably never going to be as good as 2009 […]
Commodity Stockpiles A Risky Bet
By John Richardson Inventories of copper, aluminium, lead and nickel have risen as prices for all these commodities have also surged, says this article in The Economist. Source of graph: The Economists Copper stocks total half a million tonnes in metals-exchanges warehouses in what HSBC analyst Andrew Keen describes as a market […]
China Polyolefns: Trying To See Through The Data
Source of picture: www.wrh.noaa.gov/hnx/newslet/sum…mber.htm By John Richardson Hope springs eternal when it comes to trying to fathom the direction of the polyolefin market in China. One particular hope rests on March import numbers from China Customs, due to be released later this month. The data might just give a pointer to the extent […]
China: Playing the Devil’s Advocate
Jim Chanos gets it right more than 70% of the time (unlike Alan Greenspan) Source of picture: New York Post Somebody has to play the devil’s advocate, but having just finished reading Gillian Tett’s excellent Fool’s Gold about the financial crisis, this is about more than just trying to provoke a response; it’s […]
“Trust in me, go to sleep,” – the objective of China’s Central Bank
Source of picture: www.forums.comicbookresources.com By John Richardson I loved the analogy in yesterday’s Lex column in the Financial Times, comparing the objectives of any central bank to those of Kaa, the python in Jungle Book (nice excuse for a picture to brighten up the blog). The serious point is that […]
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