This week’s special blog series has focused on auto markets, a critical source of chemical demand. Today, it concludes by summarising developments in China, USA, EU, which account for ~55% of global sales. They have moved in different directions since the Great Recession began: • China’s volumes soared in 2009-10 • The USA has fallen […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s auto sales rise only 2% in Q2
China’s auto industry has seen extraordinary growth since the downturn began in the West in Q4 2008. The government encouraged lending, and also cut taxes on auto sales. As a result, sales jumped 49% in 2009, from 6.9m to 10.3m. And then they jumped a further 29% in 2010. In 2011, however, sales have slowed […]
EU auto sales slide 8% in June
The auto industry is a major source of global chemical demand. Today, at the half-year point, the blog begins a 3-part series analysing auto sales trends in Europe (today), China (tomorrow) and total EU, China and USA sales (Thursday). Click here for current USA analysis. For the past few months, Europe has seen a two-tier […]
Oil markets surge on QE3 hopes
“Will he, won’t he?” That was the only question in oil markets last week. On Wednesday, US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke seemed to suggest that QE3 might arrive, to follow on from his QE2 ‘LifeBoat’ for the economy. As the chart shows, oil prices leapt $3/bbl within 2 hours as he spoke. But then Bernanke’s […]
OECD Indicators show economic slowdown underway
The latest American Chemistry Council (ACC) weekly report has worrying evidence that the global economy may be at a turning point, as stimulus programmes are replaced by austerity. The chart shows the latest leading indicators from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). As the ACC warn: “The CLI (green line, Composite Leading Indicator) […]
Petchem markets become more complex
Our annual Asian conference in Singapore (co-organised as always with ICIS) was very interesting this week. We had some fascinating presentations from major companies including Reliance and Thai Oil, and China insights from CICCC and Chemease. Shell’s GM for strategy, Alexander Farina, discussed changes in cost competitiveness between benzene (grey column) and propylene (red) over […]
Eurozone moves closer to crisis
New analysis by Bloomberg supports the blog’s view last month that the arrest of former IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) probably marked a critical turning-point in the Eurozone debt crisis Not only was DSK no longer able to persuade German chancellor Merkel that the problems needed just “a little more time, a little more money”. […]
US consumers focus on needs, not wants
Luxury stores are doing well around the world. The great central bank lending sprees have ensured up-market consumers still have money to spend. But many other parts of the market are struggling, as consumers worry about unemployment. Higher food and energy prices are also reducing their discretionary spend – which, of course, has a direct […]
Force Majeures continue to increase
Its now a year since the blog first highlighted the worrying rise in force majeures (FMs) since the Great Recession began. Most disappointingly, continuing strong profitability has not led to any improvement. In fact, as the chart shows, the position has worsened over the past 6 months. It is based on the number of FM […]
Investment banks push oil prices higher
The start of a new half-year usually provides an excuse for the investment banks to publish bullish notes on oil markets. We discuss their role in Chapter 3 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal, to be published later this month. Thus Goldman Sachs last week suggested oil markets will become “critically tight” in 2012, […]
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