Last week’s departure of Bill Gross from his role as Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO is likely to prove a turning point for interest rates in the West, and probably around the world. Gross founded PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Co) more than 40 years ago. During this time he built its assets under management to around $2tn. That is […]
The best view is always from the top of the mountain. At least that is how it feels today, with this month’s IeC Boom/Gloom Index (blue column) hitting a record high. Nor it is alone, as the S&P500 (red line), the world’s most important financial market index is also at record levels. Central banks broke […]
The head of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund managers, provides influential support this month for the blog’s argument in ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’ about the importance of today’s demographic changes. Bill Gross comments as follows in his new Investment Outlook: “Demography is destiny, and like cancer, demographic population changes are becoming a […]
The blog’s series on the VUCA world today reaches C for Complexity. Interest rates are key to company profitability. They determine rates of return for new investments, and their affordability. They also have a major influence on consumer spending patterns. The debate over their future direction is just one example of current Complexity: • Financial […]
Interest rates are key to the direction of the global economy. But not in the way that was true during the 1982-2007 economic SuperCycle. Then, there was a global surplus of savings, due to the vast numbers of people in the Wealth Creating 25 – 54 age group. So interest rates reduced dramatically in most […]
All of us would love to be able to see into the future. Chapter 4 of our new free eBook, ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, does just this. It offers 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2021: 1. Young and old will be focused on ‘needs’ rather than ‘wants’. 2. A […]
Greece is about to become the first developed country to default on its debts since 1964. On Thursday night, Eurozone leaders finally agreed to reduce Greece’s €350bn debts, if only by 21%. They also agreed to take the first steps towards the creation of a European Monetary Fund. After more than a year of defying […]
The blog is a great fan of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund managers. They were the first people to spot the housing bust developing in the USA, and to suggest the scale of the damage it might cause. More recently, they have pioneered the concept of the ‘new normal’. Thus a new analysis by […]
Paul McCulley of Pimco, the world’s largest bond fund managers, has been continually insightful about the lead-up to the current Crisis and its fall-out. He first alerted the blog to the work of Hyman Minsky, which is the best (and so far only) explanation for the disaster that is continuing to hit the world financial […]
This being Budget Week in the blog, it seems appropriate to look at the views of Larry Summers, US economics chief, to understand his expectations for an economic recovery. His main concept is of “escape velocity”, whereby the economy will escape from the downturn like a 3-stage space rocket: • Government spending stops the downturn […]