Monetary policy used to be the main focus for running the economy. If demand and inflation rose too quickly, then interest rates would be raised to cool things down. When demand and inflation slowed, interest rates would be reduced to encourage “pent-up demand” to return. After the start of the Financial Crisis, central banks promised […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Force majeures hit new record high as safety loses out to profits
Just when you think something really can’t get any worse, it does. Sadly, that’s the story on chemical industry force majeures since my last half-year review. As I noted then: “There is no such thing as an accident. The chemical industry, like others, has known this for over 30 years, since the adoption of Quality […]
Global supply chains at risk as trade war threat rises
“May God bless the USA and God bless Boeing” was President Trump’s sign-off in his speech on Friday at Boeing’s South Carolina factory. Earlier he had told the workforce building the 787 Dreamliner: “This is our mantra: Buy American and hire America. We want products made in America, made by American hands. Our goal as a […]
Smartphone profits under threat as market goes ex-growth
The outlook is becoming clearer for the global smartphone market, and it confirms my judgement in November, when reviewing Q3 sales: “It seems likely that a focus on price and affordability will come to dominate. In turn, pricing pressures on suppliers will intensify. The key challenge facing the market is that it has gone ex-growth.” […]
Basic Skills, not protectionism, key to sustaining today’s High Income, Services-based economies
Suddenly, manufacturing and protectionism have become political issues across the Western world. President Trump has already formed a Manufacturing Council with the aim of “reshoring jobs” from outside the USA, and is threatening to introduce import duties of up to 45%. The problem, however, as the chart shows, is that this will not help the people who […]
“Business as usual” the least likely outcome for Europe
Europe is heading in to the Great Unknown, as Monday’s post highlighted. The UK, The Netherlands and France are not the only political uncertainties that we face. Elections are also due in Italy and in Germany. Italian elections. After premier Renzi’s referendum defeat last year, it seems like that Italy will hold elections this year, […]
Europe heads into the Great Unknown as UK prepares for Brexit; Dutch and French voters go to the polls
Next month sees the start of a process that could change all our lives. Whether we live in Europe, or outside it, the political decisions about to be made have the potential to impact every country in the world – for better or worse. And yet, nobody has yet begun to put together the various […]
Speculators’ tail wags oil market dog as paper trading dominates
Trading oil markets used to be hard work. You had to talk to all the major players all the time (not just message them), and learn to judge whether they were telling the truth or inventing a version of it. You had to watch for breaking economic and political news. And you needed your own […]
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