“There isn’t anybody who knows what is going to happen in the next 12 months. We’ve never been here before. Things are out of control. I have never seen a situation like it.” This comment last month from former UK Finance Minister, Ken Clarke, aptly summarises the uncertainty facing the global economy. As I note in a new analysis, major policy changes are […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Trump’s $1tn infrastructure plan likely dead as focus moves to tax
President Trump’s defeat on healthcare makes it very unlikely that he will be able to push through his proposed $1tn infrastructure boost, as I discuss in a video interview with Will Beacham, deputy editor of ICIS Chemical Business BARCELONA (ICIS)–Donald Trump’s infrastructure plan is unlikely to be approved because of a legislative bottleneck, denying the US chemical […]
Oil prices could halve as the speculative bubble starts to burst
The past few weeks have been a nightmare for the many hedge funds who gambled on higher oil prices. They obviously hadn’t realised that OPEC’s November quota agreement was most unlikely to lead to a major rebalancing of today’s vastly over-supplied market. But as I suggested in December: “The simple fact is that the arrival […]
Trump’s healthcare focus risks postponement of tax reform and the infrastructure boost
President Trump ran for office on the basis that he would “drain the swamp” in Washington, and deliver major change in a number of critical areas, as I noted immediately after his election on 14 November. Sensibly, his “Contract with America” also recognised that his Top 10 legislative priorities would take time to deliver: “I […]
The blog will return on March 20
London housing market hit by Brexit, China’s capital controls
London’s housing market was always going to have a difficult 2017. As I noted 2 years ago, developers were planning 54,000 new luxury homes at prices of £1m+ ($1.25m) in central London, which would mainly start to flood onto the market this year. They weren’t bothered by the fact that only 3900 homes were sold […]
America hits “peak gasoline” moment as demand patterns change
OPEC has a long wait ahead, if it hopes that US drivers will ever go back to SuperCycle levels of driving and gasoline consumption growth. That’s the clear message from new data from the US Dept of Transport showing vehicle miles traveled last year. The chart shows: □ Average number of miles driven per adult […]
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