Companies are now starting the Budget process for 2012-14. As always, the blog will present its own view next month. It will also review last year’s Budget Outlook, presciently titled ‘Budgeting for Uncertainty’. In the meantime, companies might like to use its recent ‘The world in 2021′ as a way of challenging their own thinking […]
Chemicals and the Economy
US auto sales continue to disappoint
One characteristic of recessions is that recovery is always ‘just around the corner’. We can see this pattern in today’s US auto market. Since 2009, forecasters have been convinced that sales will quickly return to Supercycle levels of 15-17 million/year. But sadly, by around this time of year, it has become clear that nothing has […]
The blog in the Financial Times today
The Financial Times kindly prints a letter from the blog today, under the headline “The golden age of the baby boomers is gone – for ever“. It summarises the key ideas in its new eBook, Boom, Gloom and the New Normal, co-authored with John Richardson. Coincidentally, it appears 4 years after the blog’s famous letter […]
Boom/Gloom Index suggests downturn resuming
A recession is often defined as being when your neighbour loses their job. A depression is when you lose your job. Latest industrial production data shows output is falling around the world. And US unemployment is rising again, with the wider measure at 16.2% as long-term joblessness becomes a major problem. Last month’s IeC Boom/Gloom […]
September key for wider economic outlook
Chemical markets are traditionally 6 months ahead of the wider economy, as they are so focused on consumer demand. September may therefore provide a ‘moment of truth’ for the IeC Downturn Alert, launched in April: • The petchems downturn since April may now become apparent in the wider economy • Alternatively, demand may recover strongly, […]
Sinopec adds capacity as China’s ethylene growth stalls
Sinopec is China’s leading petchem producer. Its H1 results, out this week, confirm the blog’s concern that China’s growth surge has stalled. The chart shows Sinopec’s view of domestic demand growth for ethylene (blue line). After falling to zero in 2008 as the Great Recession began, growth rebounded to ~10% in 2009-10. But in H1 […]
August highlights
Many readers have been taking a well-earned break over the past few weeks. The blog also continues to gain large numbers of new readers, as the financial crisis intensifies. As usual, therefore, it is highlighting key posts during August, to help you catch up as you return to the office. Boom/Gloom Index suggests markets on […]
Boom, Gloom and the New Normal goes mainstream
Readers will no doubt be pleased to see that Bloomberg have today published a major article on the likely changes in demand patterns due to the ageing of the Western babyboomers. Its title, ‘Aging Baby Boomers Shrinking Labor Force May Curb U.S. Growth for 20 Years’, emphasises the parallels it makes with our analysis in […]
US polymer demand slows as consumers cut back
The above chart, from the invaluable American Chemistry Council (ACC) weekly report, highlights the scale of Q1’s inventory build in N American polymer markets (polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC). This build took place as consumers down the value chain rushed to buy forward, as WTI oil prices surged 41% between November – April. Their buying was not […]
The New Normal World in 2021
All of us would love to be able to see into the future. Chapter 4 of our new free eBook, ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, does just this. It offers 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2021: 1. Young and old will be focused on ‘needs’ rather than ‘wants’. 2. A […]
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