Chemicals

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US were flat to softer this week while global average rates rose by 6%, but the looming strike at US Gulf and East Coast ports could put upward pressure on rates in the coming week. Rates from supply chain advisors Drewry showed Shanghai-New York rates fell slightly to $5,160 from $5,182, while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles plunged by more than 12%, as shown in the following chart. The previous chart also shows the sharp increases in rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa, which contributed to the global average increase as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects an increase in rates on the Transpacific trade in the coming week due to the looming ILA (International Longshoremen’s Association) port strike in January 2025 and the anticipated rush to ship goods before the strike begins. The 15 January deadline for finalizing a new labor agreement between unionized dock workers at US Gulf and East Coast ports and the negotiating entity for the ports is nearing with no clear progress on a key remaining issue – automation. Rates at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos showed a sharp increase on the Asia-NY trade lane and a 4% decrease from Asia-LA. Rates at Freightos are higher than rates at Drewry. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said the increases on Asia-NY are because of importers again frontloading shipments ahead of a possible strike and to beat tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration. Some carriers have already begun introducing general rate increases (GRIs) to try and push rates higher. Levine said the window to move shipments from the East Coast to the West Coast ahead of a possible strike is closing, but many retailers are sitting on significant inventories from pulling forward shipments ahead of the original 1 October strike deadline. “These factors may make early December rate increases difficult to sustain, though prices could increase later in the month or early in January ahead of Lunar New Year,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES Overall, the US chemical tanker freight rates were unchanged this week for several trade lanes, except for the USG-Asia trade lane as spot tonnage remains tight. This all-basis limited spot activity to most regions and as COA nominations are taking longer than usual for the regular vessel owners. They have tried to delay the sailings but there has been very little spot space in the market leaving no other options for full cargoes and in turn impacting spot rates. MEG, ethanol and styrene still are being seen quoted in the market from various traders, for early January loadings to Asia. Eastbound space had not yet been fully absorbed despite the few fresh inquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from USG bound for Antwerp, most owners waiting for full contract nominations. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Mediterranean as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. PANAMA CANAL Fiscal Year 2024 revenue rose from 2023, the Panama Canal Authority said this week even after having to reduce crossings for part of the year because of a severe drought. The Authority said a noticeable impact from the drought was a decrease in deep draft transits, which fell by 21%. Despite the arrival of the rainy season, the challenge of water for Panama and the Panama Canal remains and serves as a reminder that climate change and its effects are a reality requiring immediate attention and concrete action. Potential solutions include the identification of alternative sources of water from the 51 watersheds and lakes in Panama, along with projects that can increase storage capacity to ensure water availability for the entire Panamanian population and the Canal’s operation, thereby ensuring its long-term sustainability. At the same time, the Panama Canal is exploring additional short- and long-term solutions that can optimize the use and storage of water at the Canal for the benefit of both the local population and its operations. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

06-Dec-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–EU chemicals trade group welcomed on Friday the “political agreement” between the 27-country bloc and the five-country bloc Mercosur on their free trade deal but, after being 25 years in the making, loose ends for its ratification remain. The agreement, yet to be published in full, must now be ratified by national parliaments as well as executive EU bodies. Considering the backlash it has already caused among some constituencies, such as farmers in France, it is not certain the deal will be ratified swiftly. Deforestation concerns in the Amazon or the sharp differences in workers’ rights in the EU and Mercosur have in the past also presented stones on the way. On Friday, the president of the European Commission – the EU’s main executive arm – told citizens of the 450-million people bloc their “livelihoods are protected”, addressing particularly farmers’ concerns. “This is a win-win agreement, which will bring meaningful benefits to consumers and businesses, on both sides. We are focused on fairness and mutual benefit. We have listened to the concerns of our farmers, and we acted on them,” said Ursula von der Leyen. “This agreement includes robust safeguards to protect your livelihoods. EU-Mercosur is the biggest agreement ever, when it comes to the protection of EU food and drinks products. More than 350 EU products now are protected by a geographical indication. In addition, our European health and food standards remain untouchable.” She added new safeguards had been added to the deal to comply strictly with those standards to access the EU market. Von der Leyen added EU companies will save €4 billion worth of export duties per year. BREATHING SPACE FOR BELEAGUERED EU CHEMICALS?The chemicals industry has always been in favor of the deal on both sides of the Atlantic. The EU’s chemicals trade group Cefic said on Friday its members should “gain an edge” in trade with Mercosur, paramount to compete against other global chemicals players. The EU and Germany – its largest chemicals producer – are net exporters of chemicals. In principle, they have a lot to win with free trade agreements as they can allow them to expand markets as trade barriers are reduced. At the same time, in the global game of trade, large companies also have more to win than small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), who do not have the same prowess in terms of reach and influence. Chemicals majors also tend to carry commanding voices in trade groups such Cefic, Germany’s VCI or, within Mercosur, Abiquim. In 2022, trade between the EU and Mercosur stood at €13.6 billion, with a trade surplus in favor of the EU of €5.2 billion, according to Cefic figures. The figures are modest considering the EU’s chemicals industry’s exports stood at €553.0 billion in 2022. The 27-country bloc imported chemicals worth €363.0 billion, so it posted a trade surplus of €190.0 billion, according to the EU’s statistics office Eurostat. This landmark agreement marks a significant milestone in fostering free, fair, sustainable and resilient trade relations between the European Union and the four Mercosur countries Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Both Cefic and the EU did not mention Bolivia as a Mercosur member, but the country joined the bloc in July. Venezuela used to be a part of it, but its membership was suspended under the current regime. Cefic and other industrial trade groups in the EU had already urged a rapid conclusion of the agreement in November in an open letter to EU bodies. “The EU-Mercosur Agreement opens tremendous opportunities for both regions. From an EU perspective, it is a crucial opportunity for companies to gain a competitive edge by accessing one of the world’s largest markets,” said Cefic’s deputy director general Sylvie Lemoine. “This agreement enhances market access, enabling EU businesses to compete more effectively on the global stage, fostering economic growth and strengthening the EU’s industrial base. This is fully in line with the spirit of the Antwerp Declaration.” “We now call upon all EU decision-makers to rapidly ratify and bring the agreement into force.” Brazil’s chemicals producers’ trade group Abiquim had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing, but in the past it has been supportive of the trade deal. Front page picture source: Cefic

06-Dec-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–While countries around the world bet on battery technology, Germany has taken a step back with plans to cut funding for battery research – to the dismay of its chemicals and other industries. Battery research key to energy transformation Trying to catch up with China New government may reverse cuts after election With the cuts in the federal government’s 2025 draft budget, the German federal research and education ministry could stop funding new battery research projects as soon as next year. The cuts would also include a reduction in so-called “commitment appropriations” (Verpflichtungsermachtigungen) of more than €100 million for spending on battery research in future years, according to the opposition Christian Democrats. Chemical producers’ trade group VCI said that the cuts would lead to “a loss of added value” and raised the risk of Germany becoming more dependent for batteries on other countries or regions. Germany needed strong research funding in this field in order to catch up with other countries, said Ulrike Zimmer, head of science, technology and environment at VCI. “This is the only way Germany can maintain its chances in competition with the US and China, and also train the urgently needed skilled workers,” she said. The planned funding cuts have already created uncertainties at academic and research institutes, VCI warned in a joint statement this week with trade groups from the machinery, electronics and digital sectors. As it stands, employment contracts could currently not be extended and new contracts could not be signed, the groups said. Research institutions were losing scientists due to the lack of prospects in the battery field, and the technology transfer via collaborations and start-up companies was coming to a standstill, they said. They said the cuts would have far-reaching consequences as they affected all industries involved in the battery value chain: chemical companies, mechanical and plant engineering, cell manufacturers and all industries whose products are based on the performance, price and availability of batteries. Affected sectors included electric vehicles (EVs), stationary storage systems, drones, power tools and robots, among others, they said. TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH CHINA Peter Lamp, head of battery technology at automaker BMW, told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday, 4 December that without powerful batteries, the transformation to a carbon dioxide (CO2)-neutral energy and transport industry was not possible. The availability of modern battery technologies was crucial to successfully implementing the energy transition, he said. Lamp criticized Germany's current dependence on Asian battery cell suppliers. Germany and the EU needed “technological sovereignty” in this area, he said, adding that the planned reduction in funding was therefore “incomprehensible”. Auto industry trade group VDA said that funding for battery research was of “central significance” for the future of the German automotive industry. The country’s Fraunhofer research institute said in a submission to the committee that government support for battery research was “an essential prerequisite” for the success of Germany’s energy and mobility transition. Battery research played a key role in the development of electrochemical energy storage solutions, as well as battery and production development, it said. China and other Asian countries were far ahead in developing and producing batteries, the institute noted. “In order to counter the dominance of Asian players in battery technology and the associated supply chains, Germany and Europe must constantly build up skills and technologies for large-volume battery cell production for all applications, also as insurance against geopolitical dependency,” it said. NEW GOVERNMENT Government officials have said that the cuts were necessary because the country’s supreme court ruled last year that Berlin needed to trim spending in order to comply with the “debt-brake” (Schuldenbremse), which is a constitutionally enshrined provision to keep public deficits low and limit debt. However, there is a chance that the cuts may be reversed in the event of a change in government in Berlin. Following the collapse last month of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, early elections will likely be held in February. The Christian Democrats, which are ahead of Scholz’s Social Democrats in opinion polls on the election, have said that the cuts to battery research, as well as the abolition last year of an incentive for the purchase of EVs, were “short-sighted”. The party has introduced a motion in parliament calling for “strong battery research in Germany”, which prompted Wednesday’s parliamentary committee hearing. Countries such as China, the US, Japan, and South Korea had nearly tripled public spending on battery research over the past four years while Germany risked falling behind internationally in this important area, it said. The cuts would also jeopardize the support the government already committed for investments in construction for battery plants, the party said, and noted the support the government has granted to a project by Sweden’s Northvolt at the Heide chemicals and refining site northwest of Hamburg. Spending a lot of money on battery factories and significantly less on research and training was “highly risky”, it said. The Northvolt project may not be realized, however. The company last month filed for Chapter 11 protection and reorganization in the US, raising questions about its future and the prospects of the German project. BATTERIES, EVs AND CHEMICALS Batteries and the EVs they power are important market opportunities for the chemical industry. An EV contains more plastics and polymer composites and more synthetic rubber and elastomers than a conventional vehicle powered by the internal combustion engine. However, BASF said earlier this year that market dynamics in the EV sector were slowing, and the company would therefore pause or may not make certain investments connected to the industry. One project on which BASF paused work is a proposed commercial-scale EV battery recycling metal refinery at its chemicals production complex in Tarragona, Spain. GERMANY AUTO INDUSTRY SENTIMENT IN DECLINE Meanwhile, the sentiment in Germany’s automotive industry continued to deteriorate in November, according to the latest survey by Munich-based research group ifo this week. Demand was weak and the industry remained stuck in a “mix of far-reaching transformation, intense competition, and a weak economy”, ifo said. Also, thousands of Volkswagen workers went on a short strike on Monday, 2 December to protest against potential job cuts and plant closures in Germany, and their union, IG Metall, has announced another strike for Monday, 9 December. The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Additional reporting by Tom Brown Please also visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on chemicals Thumbnail photo source: BASF Focus by Stefan Baumgarten

06-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 15 January deadline for finalizing a new labor agreement between unionized dock workers at US Gulf and East Coast ports and the negotiating entity for the ports is nearing with no clear progress on a key remaining issue – automation. This week, a union vice president criticized semi-automated rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGs) for eliminating jobs and posing national security risks in a post on the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) website. In response, the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), the group representing the ports, defended automation as essential for port modernization and addressing land constraints. The ILA paused a three-day strike on 3 October after agreeing on a wage increase, with a commitment to negotiate the remaining issues by 15 January. Top among the remaining issues is the automation or semi-automation at the ports, which the ILA is adamantly against because they think it will take jobs typically done by humans and which the USMX says is needed for the US to remain competitive. ILA Vice President Dennis A Daggett said in his post on the union’s website that the ILA is not against progress, innovation, or modernization – “but we cannot support technology that jeopardizes jobs, threatens national security, and puts the future of the workforce at risk”. Daggett explained that in the early-2000s, employers introduced semi-automated RMGs at a greenfield terminal on the East Coast, saying the move would create thousands of jobs. “What seemed like a win for one port turned out to be the project that is becoming the model for automation that could potentially chip away at many jobs at almost every other terminal along the East and Gulf coasts,” Daggett said. Daggett said 95% of work performed by RMGs is fully automated. “From the moment a container is dropped off by a shuttle carrier, the RMG operates on its own – lifting, stacking, and moving containers, including gantry and hoisting, without any human intervention,” Daggett said. “This includes the auto-stacking of containers in the container stack, which is also fully automated. Only in the last six feet of the container’s journey on the landside, when it is placed on a truck chassis, does an operator step in. But how long until employers automate those final six feet as well?” The USMX, in a response, said modernization and investment in new technology are core priorities required to successfully bargain a new master contract with the ILA – they are essential to building a sustainable and greener future for the US maritime industry. “Port operations must evolve, and embracing modern technology is critical to this evolution,” the USMX said. “It means improving performance to move more cargo more efficiently through existing facilities – advancements that are crucial for US workers, consumers, and companies,” the USMX said. “Due to the lack of available new land in most ports, the only way for US East and Gulf Coast ports to handle more volume is to densify terminals – enabling the movement of more cargo through their existing footprints. It has been proven this can be accomplished while delivering benefits to both USMX members and to the ILA.” The USMX stressed that it is not, nor has it ever been, seeking to eliminate jobs, but to simply implement and maintain the use of equipment and technology already allowed under the current contract agreements and already widely in use, including at some USMX ports. As an example, the USMX pointed to a terminal where modern crane technology was implemented more than a decade ago, which was previously limited to a 775,000-container capacity using traditional equipment. That same terminal nearly doubled its volume after incorporating the use of modern rail-mounted gantry cranes into its daily operations. “The added capacity delivered an equal increase in hours worked, leading to more union jobs, as the terminal went from employing approximately 600 workers a day to nearly 1,200,” the USMX said. “Moving more containers through the existing terminal footprints also means higher wages from the increased cargo, bringing in more money for volume/tonnage bonuses.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. No negotiations are currently underway with just about five weeks left before the deadline. Focus article by Adam Yanelli

05-Dec-2024

PARIS (ICIS)–Global specialty chemicals producer Arkema aims to supercharge growth in key targeted markets by leveraging proprietary chemistries to develop new products with clear sustainability and performance benefits. From France-based Arkema’s spinoff from energy giant Total (now TotalEnergies) in 2006, the company has undergone a major transformation from a diversified chemical company with a mixed bag of commodity, intermediates and specialty businesses, to nearly a pure play specialty and materials business today. “We had to revisit the strategy of the company in-depth, and we had a strong belief at that time that there was an exponential growth [opportunity] in innovative and high performance materials,” said Thierry Le Henaff, chairman and CEO of Arkema, in a video interview with ICIS. “So our strategy was to focus on specialty materials around three segments – adhesives, coatings solutions, and also high performance additives and polymers in order to make Arkema a pure specialty player,” he added. Le Henaff is the 2024 ICIS CEO of the Year, having been selected in a vote among his peers – the CEOs and senior executives in the ICIS Top 40 Power Players. M&A STRATEGY AND LATEST DEALSThe latest move in the company’s transformation is the acquisition of Dow’s flexible packaging laminating adhesives business for $150 million which just closed on 2 December. The deal adds about $250 million in sales to Arkema’s Bostik adhesives business, and Le Henaff calls it a “step change” for Bostik in the flexible packaging adhesives market, giving it a unique opportunity to be a key partner for customers across the packaging industry. Arkema will spend around $50 million in implementation costs or capex related to the acquisition and is targeting about $30 million in annual cost and development synergies after five years. “We are going to continue to invest in… cost optimization, but at the same time continue to change the portfolio, which means to invest in M&A,” said Le Henaff. The Dow deal comes on top of major acquisitions such as a 54% stake in South Korea-based PI Advanced Materials (polyimide films for mobile devices and electric vehicles) in December 2023 and US-based Ashland’s performance adhesives business (pressure-sensitive adhesives for auto and buildings) in February 2022. While the company will now focus more on organic growth, bolt-on acquisitions will be an important part of Arkema’s strategy in the coming years, he noted. One such smaller bolt-on deal was the April 2024 acquisition of a 78% stake in Austria-based Proionic, a start-up company for the development of ionic liquids, a key component for the next generation of EV batteries. HYPER GROWTH SUBMARKETSSpeaking of organic growth, the Arkema CEO has an ambitious goal of growing sales in certain parts of its specialty businesses at a rate triple that of its overall business through 2028. These high growth areas are green energy and electric mobility; advanced electronics; efficient buildings and homes; sustainable lifestyle; and water filtration, medical devices and crop nutrition. “It is really with this combination of our technologies [in] these submarkets… where we want to multiply by three, the average growth of Arkema. This means that in this market, we could deliver 12% organic growth while for the average of Arkema it would be 4%,” said Le Henaff. Arkema aims to grow these businesses from around 15% of sales in 2023, to 25% of total sales, which are projected to be around €12 billion, by 2028. These high growth areas with three times higher sales than the group average will account for 50% of the company’s R&D budget. “We have about 15 technologies, superior technologies, where we can really differentiate ourselves. Our strategy is really to take advantage of this sustainability trend,” said Le Henaff. “In fact, the answer to climate change is through the solutions we can develop for customers. This is really the core of our strategy,” he added. Within electric mobility, in addition to the acquisition of a majority stake in Proionic, Arkema in January 2024 took a stake in Tiamat, a pioneer in sodium-ion battery technology – a potential alternative to lithium-ion batteries. RENEWABLE RAW MATERIALS AND DECARBONIZATIONArkema is also undertaking organic growth projects in these hyper growth submarkets. One key project is in bio-based polyamide 11, used in bicycle helmets, consumer goods, wire and cable and medical equipment. “We are adding more and more renewable raw materials in the product range we are offering to our customers. One good example and very emblematic [of our strategy] is this polyamide 11 made from castor oil, which is a fully sustainable, renewable, bio-sourced, high performance polymer,” said Le Henaff. “We are very proud of it, and we have just invested in a plant in Singapore to accelerate the growth of this polymer,” he added. Its Rilsan bio-based PA 11 has an 80% lower carbon footprint versus traditional polyamide resins using fossil-based raw materials and conventional energy sources, according to the company. Arkema also recently launched more sustainable adhesive solutions, including its Kizen LIME range of packaging adhesives made with a minimum of 80% renewable ingredients, and Bostik Fast Glue Ultra+ for do-it-yourself (DIY) applications with 60% bio-based materials. Along with helping its customers decarbonize, the company is also decarbonizing its own operations, targeting a 48.5% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions, and a 54% reduction in Scope 3 emissions by 2030 versus a 2019 base. One major project is to decarbonize its acrylics production in Carling, France by installing new purification technology. The €130 million project should result in a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions at the site by 2026. GLOBAL FOOTPRINTAlong with its transformation into pure play specialties, Arkema has also diversified its global footprint, with more exposure in North America than Europe. Today Arkema is a global player with close to 40% of sales in North America, 25% in Asia and around a third in Europe, versus Europe at about 60% of sales when it was spun off in 2006, the CEO pointed out. “I still believe in Europe, but it's clear that we have a gap in competitiveness and also in demand. The pace of demand is slower for Europe than it is for the rest of the world,” said Le Henaff. “It's very important that our governments and the European Commission understand that the cost of doing business in Europe is too high compared to what it is in the rest of the world because of legislation, because of the cost of energy, because of the cost of raw materials,” he added. There is much work to do on this front to get Europe back to competitiveness and growth, especially for chemicals, he said. DEMONSTRATING RESILIENCEArkema’s geographic diversification and specialties focus has made it more resilient to challenging macroeconomic markets. In Q3, sales rose 2.9% year on year to €2.39 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) increased 5.4% to €407 million, the latter driven by 9.0% growth in specialty materials, offsetting a 7.3% decline in intermediates segment. Its overall EBITDA margin expanded to 17.0% versus 16.6% a year ago. A strong focus on efficiency and a healthy balance sheet has served it well. “Arkema over 20 years has doubled in size and we have a set number of headcount. This means that competitiveness and productivity is very important for Arkema, even if we are less vocal than other companies on this topic,” said Le Henaff. On the balance sheet side, net debt of around €3.11 billion is “tightly controlled” at a conservative two times last 12 months EBITDA. TRANSFORMATION NEVER OVERKey to success for Arkema is to continuously evolve, be nimble and be open to growth opportunities. “It’s never over. The status quo in this world is not possible, because the world is changing all the time, because of demography, because of geopolitics, for plenty of reasons, so we have to move forward,” said Le Henaff. “There are plenty of opportunities, but the opportunities of today won't be the opportunities of tomorrow. So we really need to have a company which is structured to be able to catch these new opportunities which arise all the time,” he added. Meanwhile, on the macro-outlook for 2025, he is cautiously optimistic. “We are all cautious because we thought 2023 would be the year of the rebound and also 2024, so we have to be cautious for 2025. But I'm cautiously optimistic,” said Le Henaff. “I still think that we should have some kind of rebound for 2025. We'll see if I'm right or not, but in the meantime, I would say the most important thing is we need to continue [evolving]. We are very glad to be in a unique position because at the end of 2024, we will have nearly fully financed billions of euros of projects, including external growth and organic growth,” he added. PEOPLE AND CULTUREKey to any ongoing transformation is of course the people involved. Arkema deems it critical to keep its people engaged with the mission. “I think, in a world which is quite volatile, quite changing, it's very important to have fixed points,” said Le Henaff. First, the long-term strategy and vision has to be attractive. But equally as important is having a corporate culture with clear and simple values. These five values for Arkema are: Solidarity, Performance, Simplicity, Empowerment and Inclusion. It is the culture that amplifies the inherent strengths in an organization, including technology, and smooths the path for continued successful transformation in an uncertain world, he said. Interview article by Joseph Chang Watch the exclusive Q&A video interview with Arkema CEO Thierry Le Henaff on the 2024 ICIS CEO of the Year landing page.

05-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea is preparing to activate a market stabilization fund worth won (W) 40 trillion ($28 billion) following the country’s brief dalliance with martial law, with its slowing economy facing the prospect of increased US tariffs in 2025. KOSPI index falls for second day Prospective US tariffs to hurt exports Q3 GDP growth slows to 1.5% on year, up 0.1% on quarter At 06:30 GMT, the KOSPI composite index fell by 0.90% to close at 2,441.85, after shedding 1.4% in the previous session. The Korean won, meanwhile, was trading at W1,415 to the US dollar, off the lows of more than W1,440 on 3 December. While the fallout of the political crisis on the financial markets appears to be contained, South Korea may be bracing for further volatility next year. “As the domestic situation coincides with the external uncertainty caused by the inauguration of the new US administration, there is a possibility that volatility will increase, so the relevant agencies will closely monitor the market situation together and take all possible measures,” the Ministry of Economy and Finance said on Thursday. A task force has been created to check on the country’s overall economic health. Much of the concern stems from threats of US tariffs on all imported goods, which would affect Asia’s export-oriented economies including South Korea. Weak external demand caused the country’s overall export growth in November to decelerate to 1.4% year on year. In Q3, South Korea’s annualized GDP growth slowed to 1.5% year on year due to weakness in both domestic demand and exports, official data showed on Thursday. This economic weakness prompted the Bank of Korea (BoK) to cut its policy interest rates by 25 basis points twice in two months. Full-year 2024 and 2025 growth forecasts were trimmed to 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the fourth largest economy in Asia barely expanded in Q3, but the 0.1% growth represents a reversal of the 0.2% contraction in April-June, according to the central bank. On the supply side, manufacturing increased by 0.2% on quarter mainly due to increases in transportation equipment and machinery and equipment. Construction fell by 1.4% and services expanded by 0.2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Exports decreased by 0.2% on quarter as shipments of motor vehicles and chemical products dropped. Imports, on the other hand, rose by 1.6% due to increased demand for machinery and equipment. The cloudy political climate in the country is not expected to affect South Korea’s sovereign ratings and growth prospects, S Korean central bank governor Rhee Chang-yong was quoted by local news agency Yonhap as saying in a press briefing. “The martial law declaration was purely out of political reasons. We can separate such political events from economic dynamics,” Rhee said. He noted that the Korean won, which “weakened due to the negative news” is forecast to “gradually rise if there are no new shocks”. The won tumbled to a near two-year low of W1,444 against the US dollar on 3 December, but eased after martial law was lifted some hours later. Impeachment motions lodged at the National Assembly against South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol are up for voting on 7 December. “It is hard to forecast how things will unfold regarding the impeachment process, which adds uncertainties to the market. “But I also believe that the matter is not likely to give a shock to the market if history serves as any guide,” the central bank chief said, as reported by Yonhap. In a separate development, unionized workers of national railway operator Korea Railroad Corp (KORAIL) launched a strike from Thursday after failing to reach a wage agreement, according to media reports. Focus article by Pearl Bantillo Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang Thumbnail image: Members of Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) and civic groups hold placards and lighted candles during a demonstration calling for the dismissal and impeachment of South Korean president in Seoul, South Korea, 4 December 2024. (JEON HEON-KYUN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

05-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Crude and chemical markets have had little reaction so far to developments in France. The government of President Emmanuel Macron fell after members of Parliament (MPs) voted to oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Barnier was appointed by Macron in September and was voted out by a combination of left- and right-wing MPs after the opposition parties objected to the budget put forth by the prime minister, according to French media reports. Macron has vowed to remain in office until his term expires in 2027 and will need to appoint a new prime minister before work on putting together a new government. European stock markets closed higher ahead of the vote as investors prepared for the no-confidence vote. Brent and WTI crude prices fell by more than a dollar, because of expectations that OPEC will extend its output cuts when it meets this week and on US government data showing a build in gasoline and distillate inventories that countered a drawdown in crude oil supplies.

04-Dec-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US November sales of new light vehicles ticked higher from the previous month and rose compared with the same month a year ago, but proposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports by President-elect Donald Trump could create further headwinds for the industry. Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows year-to-date sales up by 1.7%. The following chart shows US auto sales from 1989 to present. Note: Gray bars show when the US was in a recession Auto sales are important because the auto industry is a key end market for chemicals demand. Although automobile sales and foreign truck sales were weak, this was offset by a strong gain in domestic light truck sales, according to Kevin Swift, senior economist for global chemicals at ICIS. “Affordability has been an issue in this market and is showing signs of improvement, which, if continued, will provide further tailwinds,” Swift said. But shares of publicly traded US automakers fell last week after Trump announced that he plans on levying 25% tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico as well as an additional 10% tariff on goods from China – all three of which are critical sources for the auto industry’s global supply chain. Swift said the latest report indicates that US consumers continue to be in the market for new vehicles and that continued improvement in sales will benefit industrial production. Swift said that inventories on dealer lots have improved by almost 46% compared with the same month a year ago, which should also help boost sales. CHEMS USED IN AUTOS Demand for chemicals in auto production comes from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, plastic dashboards and other components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery fibers, coatings and adhesives, Swift said. Virtually every component of a light vehicle, from the front bumper to the rear taillights, features some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. Meanwhile, electric vehicles (EVs) and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for EVs. Please also visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals

04-Dec-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Days before the shock declaration of martial law in South Korea by President Yoon Suk-yeol, political wranglings stalled the 2025 budget deliberations of Asia’s fourth-biggest economy. Opposition DPK wants heavy cut in 2025 national budget Impeachment looms for President Yoon No impact on petrochemical operations/trades “Tensions between the ruling PPP [People Power Party] and main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) have escalated as both sides have been unable to come to a consensus on the budget,” according to BMI Country Risk & Industry Research, a unit of Fitch Solutions Group in a note on Wednesday. DPK has proposed heavy cuts – to the tune of won (W) 4.1 trillion ($2.9 billion) – to the Yoon administration’s proposed budget of W677.4 trillion for next year, which represents a 3.2% increase from 2023. “As things stand, Yoon’s proposed 2025 budget … faces the risk of being watered down to KRW673.3trn amid strong opposition from the DPK which holds a parliamentary majority,” BMI stated. QUITE AN UNEXPECTED MOVE Most South Koreans, including players in the petrochemical industry, like the rest of the world, were baffled at Yoon’s declaration of emergency martial law late on 3 December. The last time the highly industrialized country in Asia faced martial law was in 1979, and no recent developments in the geopolitical and financial sectors of the country indicated that such a drastic measure would be taken. At close to midnight, Yoon had declared martial law – which meant military rule and curbs on civil rights – on national television noting that it was meant to crack down on pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional order in the country. "Martial law was quite surprising for us to hear because it hasn't happened in the last 40 years," said a soda ash distributor. The declaration of martial law and its withdrawal hours later has thrown South Korea into political instability. It was highly disruptive for market sentiment that for a time, suspension of trading was mulled, but was eventually called off when the martial law was rescinded about six hours after it was declared. South Korea’s Ministry of Finance and Economy and the Bank of Korea assuaged market fears of disruption by offering “unlimited liquidity support” to ensure market stability, immediately after the martial law declaration. The won weakened near two-year lows against the US dollar on 3 December at around W1,440 but recovered to around W1,412 levels as of Wednesday afternoon. The benchmark KOSPI composite index closed off lows at 2,464.00, down 1.44% from the previous day, after falling nearly 2% in intraday trade. “For now, we expect limited implications for the economy and financial markets as the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Finance have responded swiftly by reassuring investors,” BMI said. “Notably, the central bank committed to boosting short-term liquidity and enacting measures to stabilise the FX [foreign exchange] markets, which aligns with our view that risks around the South Korean won, should remain contained for now,” it added. The central bank held an emergency monetary policy meeting on Wednesday morning, with the Monetary Board deciding “to keep all options open and to actively take market stabilization measures until markets are fully stabilized”. In late November, the BoK issued its second interest rate cut in as many months to prop up the economy, while trimming its GDP growth forecasts for this year to 2.2%, and for 2025 to 1.9%. In Q3, the country's GDP growth decelerated to 1.5% from a 2.3% pace set in Q2. The South Korean economy is expected to face added pressure next year amid US threats to impose tariffs on all imported goods. Like most of Asia, the country is heavily reliant on exports, with China and the US as its biggest trade partners. South Korea's export growth in November weakened to 1.4% year-on-year to $56.4 billion, while imports shrank by 2.4% to $50.7 billion, indicating domestic weakness. YOON’S FUTURE UNCERTAIN Calls for Yoon’s resignation is mounting, with lawmakers from DPK saying that if he does not resign immediately, steps will be taken to have him impeached. “We anticipate heightened political uncertainty in the near term. Yoon is now under intense pressure to resign. If he does not, we expect that it is only a matter of time before he is impeached,” BMI said. “If so, we believe Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will step in as interim leader, paving the way for elections to be held within 60 days, in accordance with the constitution,” it added. According to Korean news agency Yonhap, opposition parties – DPK and five others, including the Rebuilding Korea Party and Reform Party, submitted on Wednesday afternoon a motion to impeach President Yoon to the National Assembly. The motion – which was signed by 190 opposition lawmakers and one independent lawmaker, with no support from any ruling party lawmakers – will be reported to a parliamentary plenary session on 5 December and then put to a vote on either 6 December or 7 December. South Korea’s law requires that an impeachment motion be put to a vote between 24 and 72 hours after the motion is reported to a plenary session, Yonhap said. Yoon, an inexperienced politician, became the 20th president of the country in May 2022 and is currently serving the third of his five years of office. Previously, he was South Korea's chief prosecutor. In its note, BMI noted that PPP leader Han Dong-hoon had urged Yoon to explain his decision and to dismiss defense minister Kim Yong-hyun, who advised the president to declare martial law “even as the finance and foreign ministers advised against it”. “The silver lining we think is that the swift reversal of the martial law underscores the resilience of South Korea’s institutions,” it said. NO IMPACT ON PETROCHEMICAL TRADESPlayers in the petrochemical industry are monitoring the political developments but noted no immediate impact on the commodities markets. "Politically, [it is] still unstable as the President is getting pressure to resign," a source at a phenol/acetone producer said. South Korea is a major exporter of ethylene, as well as aromatics such as benzene, toluene and styrene monomer (SM). "At this moment the situation has settled down, but we'll see how the government will respond to the issue,” the soda ash distributor said. “From the industrial side there is no huge impact because plants/factories are always running at full capacity so now we don't see any impact," he said. "But long-term impact, we'll need to see how other foreign companies and assets may move out of South Korea," the distributor added. For the time being, players are more pre-occupied with unsteady port operations in Daesan because of heavy winds which are affecting trades and cargo deliveries. Meanwhile, South Korea's petrochemical industry has its own troubles stemming from Asia's overcapacity. In the case of of major player Lotte Chemical, which swung into a net loss of W514 billion in Q3 2024, the company is making big changes to its  portfolio, selling or closing commodities businesses as it refocuses on higher margin specialties. South Korean industries, including chemicals, rely heavily on exports to China, whose self-sufficiency has grown over the years. Insight article by Pearl Bantillo ($1 = W1,414) Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang, Jonathan Chou, Evangeline Cheung, Helen Lee, Shannen Ng, Josh Quah and Clive Ong

04-Dec-2024

MUSCAT (ICIS)–Thailand’s PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) is expected to begin producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at its refinery in Map Ta Phut early next year, the company’s CEO Narongsak Jivakanun said. “We are commissioning, although it is on a small scale, but it is an important step – SAF [production] in Q1 next year using our existing oil refinery but blended with non-fossil fuel based raw material,” Jivakanun told ICIS on the sidelines of the 18th Annual Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals (GPCA) Forum in Muscat, Oman. The company plans to produce 500,000 liters of SAF per month, using up to 1,700 tonnes of used cooking oil per month as feedstock. SAF is used as a direct replacement for traditional fossil-based jet fuel to power aircraft. Moreover, by leveraging the mass balance approach, the change in how the refinery accommodates use of alternative feedstock in the production of SAF enables it to claim a portion of its downstream aromatics, polymers, and olefins output as non-fossil chemical products, he said. PTTGC is the first Thai company to upgrade its refinery with advanced technology to accommodate used cooking oil as feedstock. The company’s biorefinery project is a component of the company's three-pronged growth strategy – “Step Change, Step Out and Step Up” – which, in part, prioritizes business sustainability through decarbonization efforts, according to Jivakanun. PTTGC is also on track to fully start up a new fully integrated polylactic acid (PLA) unit at the Nakhon Sawan Biocomplex (NBC) by the end of next year, he said. The PLA project is being carried out by NatureWorks, the equal joint venture firm between the US’ Cargill and PTTGC and will use sugarcane sourced locally as feedstock. THAI SPECIALTIES HUB AMBITIONS  Allnex, a global specialty chemicals subsidiary of PTTGC, is currently planning to expand its specialty resins production in Map Ta Phut with an aim to develop the site to become a hub for selected coating resins serving the southeast Asia region, according to Jivakanun. “The plan is to develop a hub in Map Ta Phut so that they can share the infrastructure that [PTT]GC already has, utilities, the engineering and operational support," he said. "Expertise sharing between GC and allnex will enhance potential of value engineering resulted in cost savings into the project." The project is in the stage of finalizing the scope with an aim to produce specialty resins that most fit customer demands and requirements Allnex specializes in the production of industrial coating resins and additives. “We will go through the feasibility study as usual and we aim to confirm the investment for allnex Map Ta Phut hub within next year," Jivakanun added. Interview article by Nurluqman Suratman

04-Dec-2024