Chemicals

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US edged lower this week as carriers have reduced short-term rates to both coasts to stimulate demand ahead of Lunar New Year (LNY). Analysts at freight forwarder Flexport said that pre-LNY demand has slowed, resulting in low carrier vessel utilization rates and a softening market. Rates from Shanghai to New York fell by 4% from the previous week and rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 5%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to decrease slightly in the coming weeks due to increased capacity. Global average rates fell by 3%, as shown in the following chart. Flexport analysts said that space remains constrained following the pre-LNY rush, especially on fixed allocations, but some strings still have open space, especially to the West Coast and, to a lesser extent, the East Coast. Carriers have planned 11% blank sailings during the LNY period, aligning with network adjustments. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. USG-ASIA CHEM TANKER RATES TICK LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady to lower for most trade lanes this week, with slight decreases on the US Gulf (USG) to Asia trade lane. There are bigger gaps of vessel space showing in January. Therefore, there are a backlog of outsiders looking for opportunities, which weighed on spot rates this week, pushing them lower. From the USG to Rotterdam, there has been a lull in activity on this route as contract space for January is soft, leaving players looking for additional cargoes to complete space for a few tanks. Styrene monomer, glycol and methanol has been said to be a popular commodity within this trade lane. As a result, smaller parcel freights have taken a steep drop from January loadings, while larger parcel sizes seem destined for the same and rates decreasing, according to a broker, various glycol and methanol cargos have keen interest along this route. From the USG to Brazil, there are a few outsiders open for the end of January to early February, along with some regulars with some small pocket space. This trade lane is expected to face some downward pressure as the list of fully open vessels presently continues to grow, according to a broker. Meanwhile from the USG to the Mediterranean, there is still a bit of open space, and the market quotes continue to come in for February. This route after a bit of uncertainty is seeing rates steadying for the balance of open space. On the other hand, bunker prices were higher this week following the rise in energy prices. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

17-Jan-2025

TORONTO (ICIS)–US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to quickly move forward with his proposed 25% tariff on all imports, including oil and energy, from Canada and Mexico after taking office on Monday 20 January. Tariffs to hurt US industry and consumers US refiners rely on Canadian crude Canada oil embargo could jeopardize national unity So far, Trump has given no indication that he may exempt Canada’s oil from the tariffs. Canada supplies more than 4 million barrels per day of oil to the US, accounting for the majority of US oil imports. The oil goes mainly to US Midwest refineries, such as BP’s Whiting plant in Indiana, that are configured to process heavy Canadian crude. The move could be felt in the US as well as Canada. IMPACTS ON US The US Midwest refiners buy the Canadian oil at a discount, a price advantage they would lose with the tariffs. The refiners will not be able to quickly secure alternative sources of heavy crude, and neither will they be able to quickly reconfigure their processing units to lighter oil. The tariffs will raise US domestic energy prices, in particular gasoline prices – running counter to Trump’s campaign promises to address inflation and reduce costs for consumers. US inflation expectations have already been rising, partly because of the planned tariffs. Higher inflation expectations could prompt the US Federal Reserve to delay further rate cuts and possibly even raise rates, slowing the economy. The imported cheap Canadian crude frees up higher-priced US oil for export to other nations, allowing the US to run a trade surplus in oil with those countries, an advantage that may be lost if tariffs are imposed. ICIS feedstocks and fuels analyst Barin Wise said that it was hard to believe that Trump would place tariffs on Canadian oil as this would cause a big problem for US refiners processing the oil, with very limited alternatives to run in their plants. "This would cause prices to rise, which is the last thing Trump would want to see," Wise said. "I suppose we will know for sure shortly." IMPACTS OF OIL EMBARGO ON CANADA There was much discussion this week in Canada about responding to the US tariffs by imposing an oil embargo or putting an export tax on oil. However, analysts noted that those counter-measures would have self-defeating impacts on Canada: Producers in oil-rich Alberta province ship oil to eastern Canada on a pipeline system that passes through Wisconsin and Michigan (Enbridge’s Line 5) before re-entering Canada near the Sarnia refining and petrochemicals production hub in Ontario. In case of a Canadian oil embargo, Trump would likely stop the flow of Canadian oil on Line 5 to destinations in eastern Canada. As a result, an embargo would not just hit the US but cause a supply squeeze and higher energy prices in Ontario and Quebec, which are home to much of Canada’s auto, aerospace and other manufacturing. An oil embargo could also give new life to the Michigan state government’s efforts to shut down Line 5, because of environmental concerns. Canada could use rail to ship oil from Alberta to eastern Canada, but this would be expensive and there is not enough railcar capacity to replace the lost pipeline volumes. Canada could import oil through Montreal and other Canadian East Coast ports to replace the Alberta oil, but that would also be expensive. Furthermore, the flow of a pipeline (Enbridge’s Line 9) supplying refineries in Ontario and Quebec goes from west to east, and not from east to west. A flow reversal would be a costly undertaking. Once the US Midwest refiners have reconfigured their refineries to lighter oil or found alternative sources of heavy crude, they may not want to go back to Canadian crude if the tariffs are lifted later. Alberta, as well as Saskatchewan, would lose substantial revenues from their oil exports to the US. Both provinces have said they oppose an embargo. CANADA MUST AVOID UNITY CRISIS However, there is much more at stake for Canada. The premier (governor) of Alberta, Danielle Smith, has warned that the country’s national unity would be jeopardized if the federal government imposes an embargo. She refused to endorse a joint statement by the federal government and 12 of Canadas 13 provincial premiers at a summit this week, on Canada’s position in facing the US tariff threat. The statement is broad and does not even mention oil, but Smith said she could not endorse it as it did not rule out an embargo or an oil export tax. “Alberta will simply not agree to export tariffs on our energy or other products, nor do we support a ban on exports of these same products,” she said on social media. Smith added that an oil embargo was also unacceptable as politicians in eastern Canada, she claimed, had blocked the Energy East oil pipeline project to ship oil from Alberta to Ontario and Quebec and to export markets. The cancellation of Energy East deprived Alberta of an important opportunity to reduce its dependence on the US market, she argued. She failed to mention, however, the Trans Mountain oil pipeline. The Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau bought and expanded Tans Mountain by nearly 600,000 bbl/day, enabling oil shipments from Alberta to an export terminal near Vancouver. Trudeau noted this week that the government did this to the benefit of Alberta’s oil industry, with funding from all of Canada’s taxpayers. Smith has often disagreed with the federal government over oil and environmental issues. In 2022 she put in place an “Alberta Sovereignty Act” to challenge federal laws. The act has not yet been reviewed by Canada’s Supreme Court. Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper, siding with Smith, warned against imposing an oil embargo or other oil export restrictions. Such measures would incite renewed separatist sentiment in Alberta, the paper said in an editorial on Thursday and reminded readers of the alienation caused in Alberta by former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program (NEP) in the early 1980s. (Pierre was the father of Justin Trudeau). The NEP was seen by Alberta as an unfair attempt to redistribute its oil wealth to Ontario, Quebec and other eastern provinces. Instead of an embargo, Canada needed to use targeted tariffs that “inflict the greatest possible political damage on Mr Trump”, and it should particularly target exports from US swing states, the paper said. Longer-term, Canada needed to have a fresh look at projects such as Energy East to reduce its dependence on the US market, it added. However, Trudeau and Ontario premier Doug Ford insisted that Alberta put Canada first, ahead of its own needs. All options must be on the table, including an embargo, in case the trade conflict escalates, they said. Commentators said that even if Trump exempts Canadian oil, Canada should consider an oil export tax as it could not allow a large part of its economy being devastated by the US tariffs while Alberta does business as usual with the US. Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada’s opposition Conservatives, has yet to state whether he would use an oil embargo as a weapon in a trade dispute. The issue of Canada’s response to the US tariff challenge is expected to be at the center of the upcoming election campaign. Elections that must be held before October but will likely be called earlier. The Conservatives are far ahead of Trudeau’s Liberals in opinion polls on the elections. Furthermore, the Liberals are in disarray. Trudeau last week announced his resignation, and the Liberals have opened the process of selecting a new leader who will then also take over as the new prime minister until the elections. Meanwhile, the federal government has prepared a list of US products to be targeted with potential retaliatory tariffs. Details will be released only after Trump moves ahead with the tariffs, officials said. According to public broadcaster CBC the list includes certain US-made plastics products. In Canada’s chemical industry, trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) this week joined the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) and others in forming a new group to jointly confront the imminent US tariff threat. Canada’s chemicals and plastics industry accounts for more than Canadian dollar (C$) $100 billion (US$69 billion) in annual shipments. Nearly two-thirds of those shipments are exported to the US, with a reciprocal value returning to Canada from the US, according to Ottawa-based CIAC, which speaks for Canada’s chemical and plastics industry (US$1=C$1.44) Insight by Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail photo of Imperial Oil’s Cold Lake oil sands site in Alberta; the Toronto-listed ExxonMobil affiliate is one of Canada’s largest oil companies, and it also produces petrochemicals. Photo source: Imperial Oil.

17-Jan-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Mitsui Chemicals and Mitsubishi Chemical are studying a potential tie-up on supplying phenol-related products in response to poor domestic demand and oversupply conditions, the Japanese firms said on Friday. These products include phenol, acetone, α-methylstyrene, bisphenol A (BPA) and methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK), they said in a joint statement. The two companies "will jointly consider approaches for maintaining product supply during regular major maintenance or facility issues, as well as for the efficient operation of both companies’ tanks". The launch of multiple new production facilities across Asia – particularly in China – since 2022 has resulted in a significant oversupply of these products. This oversupply, coupled with weak domestic demand, has caused a market slump. Mitsui Chemicals in April last year said that it will close its 190,000 tonnes/year phenol plant at the company's production site in Ichihara by fiscal year 2026 (year to March 2027) due to declining profitability. Mitsui Chemicals currently produces phenol at three locations: Ichihara in Chiba, Takaishi in Osaka and Shanghai in China. "Going forward, the company [Mitsui Chemicals] intends to maintain stable product supply by creating a highly capital-efficient, reliably profitable phenol chain centered around the 200,000-ton capacity phenol plant at its Osaka Works," the joint statement noted. Mitsubishi Chemical, which operates a 280,000 tonne/year phenol plant at its Ibaraki Plant and produces derivatives like BPA, is also taking steps to improve its competitiveness. These steps include the closure in March 2024 of its 120,000 tonne/year BPA plant in Kurosaki, Fukuoka. Mitsubishi Chemical has another 100,000 tonne/year BPA plant in Kashima that will continue operating.

17-Jan-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–A ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas announced on Wednesday is unlikely to have much of an impact on crude oil and chemical markets, though it could lower the geopolitical premium. The agreement was reached through diplomacy by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, and will be implemented for the most part by the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, US President Joe Biden said in remarks from the White House. ICIS feedstocks analyst Barin Wise said he does not expect that the deal will have a meaningful impact on crude oil markets because the affected region is not oil producing. “This may trim the geopolitical premium in crude since it eliminates a hot spot in the Middle East,” Wise said. “However, if we look at the market today, crude is up big on other factors, more than offsetting any effect the ceasefire may have.” Crude prices surged on Wednesday largely in response to fresh US sanctions on Russia, which the International Energy Agency said could crimp global supply. Futures prices for WTI settled on Tuesday at $77.50/bbl and rose to $79.51/bbl before midday. WTI settled at $80.04/bbl on Wednesday. IMPACT ON SUEZ CANAL TRAFFIC The agreement could help with capacity constraints in commercial shipping as container ships have been avoiding the Suez Canal for more than a year because of attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels. Ships have been forced to use the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, which tightened shipping capacity and pushed costs for shipping containers higher. The reopening of the Suez Canal would have the greatest impact on normalizing the Asia-to-Europe container shipping route, but would also affect Asia-US rates, as shipping capacity would surge once carriers were able to access the shorter route. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers – such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) – are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Thumbnail image shows a crude oil tanker. Photo by Shutterstock

15-Jan-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–The latest tranche of US sanctions on Russia’s oil trade could affect flows from the country, while weather-related production shut-ins in North America could also impact global supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. Announced on 10 January, the US imposed aggressive new sanctions on Russia’s oil trade, naming 183 vessels, including Russia-owned tankers and the ”shadow vessels” understood to be utilized to evade trade blockades. The shadow fleet refers to ships indirectly owned or controlled by Russia through shell companies or intermediaries to evade detection and sanctions. Over 100 of the sanctioned tankers had transported Russian crude to China and/or India in 2024, according to Matt Wright, lead freight analyst at data and analytics firm France-based Kpler. "When it comes to buyers, China and India, in general, tend to steer clear of dealing directly with tankers and entities blacklisted by the US Treasury," he said in a note earlier this week. US moves “may affect oil supply flows” the IEA said in its latest oil market report, but official purchases of Russia crude will still be possible at certain price points. “Exports on non-shadow tankers remain viable for Russian oil purchased below price caps,” the IEA said. Further complicating the early 2025 supply picture is scope for production constraints in the US in the event of extreme weather, with a winter freeze last year cutting output in the US and Canada by over 1.8 million barrels/day. A smaller drop is expected this year, but there could still be scope for weather in the region to tighten supplies, the IEA said. Potential for additional US sanctions on Iran-origin oil to be introduced by the new administration could also hit global supplies, the agency added, with sentiment already driving some players to pill back from oil supplies from Iran and Russia. “There is heightened speculation that the incoming US administration will take a tougher stance on Iran's oil exports, compounding the impact of US Treasury sanctions on Tehran,” the IEA said. 1.5 million barrels day of additional supply is expected from non-OPEC countries this year , and total output growth of 1.8 million/barrel day against 1.05 million barrels/day demand growth, according to the agency. While supply growth is likely is likely to be sufficient to cover demand, the fresh Russia sanctions could provide more headroom for OPEC+ signatory countries to release more barrels into the market after delaying the end dates for some production cuts. OPEC, also releasing its latest market predictions on Wednesday, left 2025 demand growth forecasts unchanged at 1.4 million barrels/day, and non-OPEC+ supply growth projections at 1.1 million barrels/day amid global GDP expansion of 3.1%. The cartel projects that demand and non-OPEC supply growth will remain around 2025 levels next year. Focus article by Tom Brown Thumbnail photo: An oil pipeline running through Alaska, US (Source: Shutterstock)

15-Jan-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–The German economy contracted 0.2% in 2024 – the second consecutive year of economic decline for the eurozone’s biggest economy – driven by energy costs, increasing export competition and economic uncertainty, according to the first calculations from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). As the country rounds off two years of economic decline, preliminary data for Q4 2024 points to a 0.1% decline, the agency added, with a full announcement incorporating more data scheduled for 30 January. Manufacturing output dropped 3% in the year, according to Destatis, with production in energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and metal-working hit particularly hard. The decline in the construction sector was even sharper, with output shrinking 3.8% over the course of the year. “Cyclical and structural pressures stood in the way of better economic development in 2024,” said Destatis president Ruth Brand.

15-Jan-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Chinese oil company CNOOC and Anglo-Dutch energy major Shell have taken a final investment decision (FID) to expand their joint petrochemical complex in Daya Bay, Huizhou in southern China. The expansion by their joint venture firm CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Co (CSPC)  is expected to be completed in 2028, Shell said in a statement. Financial details of the investment were not disclosed. The expansion will include a third cracker with a planned capacity of 1.6 million tonne/year of ethylene; as well as associated downstream derivatives units producing chemicals including linear alpha olefins It will also include a new facility which will produce 320,000 tonnes/year of high-performance specialty chemicals such as polycarbonates (PC) and carbonate solvents. CSPC is a 50-50 joint venture owned by Shell Nanhai BV, a subsidiary of Shell, and CNOOC Petrochemicals Investment Ltd, an affiliate of CNOOC. (Recasts first two paragraphs for clarity)

15-Jan-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ocean carriers will increase blank sailings around the Lunar New Year holiday to support elevated container rates, but now that the labor issues at US Gulf and East Coast ports have been resolved, some analysts think rate growth will slow, or shippers could even see lower rates. Emily Stausbøll, senior shipping analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said spot rates may now begin to fall but warned that shippers still face other supply chain threats in 2025. “Looking ahead, it is likely spot rate growth will now soften on trades into the US from Asia, suggesting a brighter outlook for shippers negotiating new long-term contracts,” Stausbøll said. “Shippers must remain cautious, however, because it will not take much for freight rates to begin spiraling once again, particularly given the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the return of [President-elect Donald] Trump to the White House, which could escalate the US-China trade war,” Stausbøll said. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, defines the four-week Lunar New Year period as the week of the holiday plus the following three weeks. Murphy said carriers have so far scheduled blanked capacity of 9.0%, which is in sharp contrast with the 22.8% blanked in 2024, and the average reduction of 18.3% from 2016-2019. For context, the blanked percentage in 2021 (where pandemic demand was surging) was higher at 10.7%. “Under normal circumstances, this would mean significant blank sailings announcements in the upcoming weeks, since it is highly unlikely that carriers would be satisfied with this level of excess capacity,” Murphy said. “This would result in a situation reminiscent of 2023 and 2024, where significant capacity cuts were made very close to Lunar New Year.” CHANGING ALLIANCES Several major carriers are restructuring alliances in 2025, which is also adding some uncertainty to shipping. Shipping alliances are agreements between carriers to collaborate globally on specific trade routes. This will be the most significant shift in alliances since 2017, according to analysts at freight forwarder Flexport. The changes will see Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) breaking from the 2M alliance with Maersk and will service customers alone with its expanded fleet now the largest in the market. MSC said it will incorporate more direct call services. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will form the Gemini Alliance, with a reduced number of port calls that they say will improve reliability. The Ocean alliance consists of OOCL, Evergreen, COSCO, and CMA CGM. The Premier alliance will be made up of Ocean Network Express (ONE), South Korean shipping line HMM, and Taiwan’s Yang Ming. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said it remains to be seen if there will be any improved service metric from the shifts. “The rollout and adjustment period will probably stretch into March,” Levine said. “This is going to coincide with easing seasonal demand, so it could be a factor that pushes rates down if we do see some competitiveness between the new alliances that they compete for customers.” Levine also said the adjustment period could lead to increased schedule disruptions as vessels are being moved into place for these new services. CEASEFIRE, SUEZ CANAL On a side note, container ships have been avoiding the Suez Canal for more than a year because of attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels. A ceasefire in the Gaza conflict could potentially end attacks in the Red Sea, reopening the Suez Canal. This would have the greatest impact on normalizing the Asia-to-Europe container shipping route but would also affect Asia-US rates as shipping capacity would surge once carriers no longer must divert away from the Suez Canal. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Focus article by Adam Yanelli

14-Jan-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The rally in crude markets could get continued support from cold weather, sanctions and a recovery in demand from China, the CEO of US crude producer Hess said on Tuesday. Oil markets are important to the US chemical industry because prices for crude influence prices for several commodity petrochemicals. Since the first day of trading in 2025, front-month Brent crude futures have risen by nearly 7%. Oil demand could be several hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil a day higher because of the cold winter, said John Hess CEO of Hess and chairman of the American Petroleum Institute (API), an oil trade group. He made his comments during API's State of American Energy presentation. A further rise in oil demand could come from continued economic growth in the US and a recovery in China. "They are going to do everything they can to stimulate their economy," he said "I would not bet against China for two years in a row." During the end of 2024, Hess suspects that oil demand shrank in China because of the slowdown in the nation's economy. The third leg of support for oil markets will come from geopolitical tensions, Hess said. On 10 January, the US Department of the Treasury introduced more sanctions on vessels that carry Russian oil. "The initial numbers that are out there are up to a million barrels a day of impact of supply that might have trouble getting into the market for Russia," Hess said. "There could be another 1 million barrels a day from Iran." If sanctions and other factors cause a large enough spike in oil prices, Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC have spare capacity that they can use to stabilize the oil market, he said. PROSPECTS FOR PERMIT REFORM, EXTENDING TAX CUTSSenator John Thune (Republican, South Dakota) said Congress may opt to address energy, military spending and border security in one bill and extending tax cuts in a second bill. The tax bill will make permanent nearly all of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). This was a campaign promise made by Donald Trump, who will be sworn into office on 20 January. WAYS TO ROLL BACK EV PERKSThune said Congress could use the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal a waiver that California needed to adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II) program, which gradually phased out sales of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. The California program is a lynchpin for similar programs adopted by 12 other states and territories. If California loses its waiver, then those other states and territories cannot adopt their programs. The fate of the ACC II program could become a legal dispute over state versus federal power that would need to be settled in court. Trump's predecessor, President Joe Biden, introduced two other auto programs that critics say are so strict, they act as effective bans on ICE vehicles. The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation's (DoT's) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates stricter fuel-efficiency standards. Thune doubts that Congress can use the CRA to roll back the tailpipe rule. Nonetheless, Trump may find other ways to scale back or repeal the tailpipe rule and the stricter CAFE standards during his first days in office. Even though EVs make up a small share of overall US auto sales, they are important to the chemical industry because they consume more plastics than their counterparts that are powered by internal combustion engines. EVs are also creating demand for new polymers and fluids that can meet their unique material challenges. Thumbnail shows snow. Image by Xinhua/Shutterstock

14-Jan-2025

BARCELONA (ICIS)–A ceasefire in the Gaza conflict could potentially end attacks in the Red Sea, reopening the Suez Canal and normalizing the Asia-to-Europe container shipping route. Gaza ceasefire could stop Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping Route via Cape of Good Hope takes 10 days longer than Suez Canal Reopening Suez would add 10 days of inventory to the market Europe would be open to more Asia exports Freight rates could fall as container capacity is freed up Ceasefire negotiations ongoing ‘Stunning’ levels of overcapacity expected in China in 2025 New Cefic report highlights need for new Europe industrial deal for chemicals In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Nigel Davis and John Richardson from the ICIS market development team and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson's ICIS blogs.

14-Jan-2025