Ethylene

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Orbia's vinyls business reported on Wednesday that Q3 operating income was flat year on year amid lower costs for ethylene and electricity as well lower volumes and prices. The following shows the financial performance of the company's Polymer Solutions segment, which includes the Vestolit and Alphagary businesses. Figures are in millions of dollars. Q3 24 Q3 23 % Change total sales 634 677 -6% Operating income 23 23 0 EBITDA 90 86 5% Source: Orbia Orbia attributed the rise in the segment's EBITDA to lower costs as well as the company's efforts to optimize production and fixed costs. Orbia attributed the declines in volumes to challenging business conditions. COMPANY LOWERS GUIDANCEFor Orbia as a whole, the company expects to report $1.10 billion to $1.15 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), down from its earlier guidance of $1.30 billion. Orbia lowered its guidance because the market had not recovered as the company had expected. The company's other segments include the following: Building & Infrastructure, which includes the Wavin business. It makes pipes and fittings. Connectivity Solutions, which includes the Dura-Line business. It makes telecommunications conduit, cable-in conduit and similar products. Precision Agriculture, which includes the Netafim business. It makes irrigation systems. Fluor & Energy, which includes the Koura business. It mines fluorspar and makes fluorine derivatives. Thumbnail shows PVC pipe. Image by Shutterstock.

23-Oct-2024

XIAMEN, China (ICIS)–With 2025 contract discussions underway for Asia ethylene (C2), ICIS markets editor Josh Quah outlines the top concerns of industry players as they look ahead to the coming year. Players may take steps to hedge against unpredictability of deep-sea cargoes China’s long domestic supply may not yet boost exports by much Producers keen on ethane to be part of cracker feedstock slate

18-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Warmer waters in the Atlantic Basin could make record-setting hurricanes like Milton and Beryl more common, which strengthened rapidly to become major storms that caused significant damage. Most of the petrochemical and refining capacity of the US is along the Gulf of Mexico, making the plants vulnerable to the disruptions caused by more powerful hurricanes that could become more common in the future. Rising exports of energy, chemical feedstock and plastics from the US Gulf Coast have caused local hurricanes to have global consequences. If wind shear becomes more common, then it could offset some of the strengthening effects that warmer water will have on hurricane development. RECORD-SETTING HURRICANE SEASONWarm water is like rocket fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes, and that led to the rapid intensification of Milton, which strengthened from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in less than two days. By midday on Monday, the rapid strengthening of Milton placed it among the top three Atlantic hurricanes, behind only 2005's Hurricane Wilma and 2007's Hurricane Felix, said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at the meteorology company AccuWeather. Milton had set another record as the strongest hurricane to occur in the Gulf of Mexico, according to Levi Silvers, research scientist at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, which publishes regular hurricane forecasts. Milton was also the Gulf's strongest hurricane since Rita in 2005, Silvers said. Milton would weaken to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall on Wednesday night. AccuWeather estimates that Milton could cause more than $200 billion in damage and economic loss. Earlier on July 2, Beryl set its own record by becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin, beating the previous record holder by an astounding two weeks, DaSilva said. According to Silvers, Beryl also accumulated more cyclone energy than any other storm occurring before August. "Basically, it was the strongest early storm we have had by several measures." After forming in the Atlantic Beryl weakened after passing over Mexico's Yucatan peninsula before making landfall in Texas and disrupting operations at several petrochemical plants. AccuWeather estimated that total damage and economic loss caused by Beryl was $28 billion to $32 billion. Hurricane Helene set a record for the amount of available atmospheric moisture, also known as precipitable rain, according to AccuWeather. Such extreme amounts of moisture allowed Helene to carry it far inland, leading to rapidly rising river levels and flash flooding. AccuWeather estimates that Helene caused $225 billion to $250 billion in damage and economic loss in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. WARM WATER THREATSIf the planet continues to warm, one of the consequences would be elevated water temperatures. Warmer waters contributed to the strength and rapid intensification of these three hurricanes, DaSilva said. The danger is not just the surface temperature of the Atlantic but also something that meteorologists call ocean heat content, DaSilva said. Ocean heat content reflects water temperatures below the surface. A warmer planet will also heat up the atmosphere, allowing the air to hold more moisture. That would lead to more rainfall and greater risks of floods. "I am concerned that we are going to be seeing more episodes of rapid intensification," DaSilva said. "The tie between sea surface temperatures and rapid intensification – we are pretty confident about that." Silvers also expressed concern about the threat posed by elevated water temperatures. WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNKNOWN VARIABLEMeteorologists are less sure if wind shear could become more common in a warmer planet, DaSilva said. Wind shear usually discourages the formation of tropical weather. If wind shear does become more common, it could partially offset the effects of warmer water. In a world with more wind shear, it might not generate more hurricanes, but those that do form will strengthen rapidly into more powerful storms, DaSilva said. The length of the Atlantic hurricane season could also expand by starting sooner than the current June 1 date, DaSilva said. DaSilva doubts that the Atlantic season would last beyond its November 30 end date, because wind shear becomes more common during the final months of the year. Silvers, though, said it is difficult to determine if the timing of Atlantic storms will change in the future. "This season is a perfect example, with record breaking storms before and after the peak of the season, but almost nothing during the historical peak," Silvers said. MORE DISRUPTIONS FOR US, GLOBAL CHEMICALSMost of the petrochemical plants and refineries in the US are on the Gulf Coast, so more powerful hurricanes would leave them more vulnerable to damage and shutdowns. The US now exports significant amounts of polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and other chemicals. Hurricanes disrupt port operations, so those exports could be delayed, increasing the risk of global shortages. DISRUPTIONS TO WORLD'S CHEMICAL FEEDSTOCKSIn addition, the US is increasingly relying on exports to take away excess ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) produced from its oil fields. These petrochemical feedstocks are being imported by an increasing number of crackers and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units, with GAIL (India) became the latest to announce plans to build an ethane cracker. Nearly all of the terminals that handle these exports of ethane and LPG are on the Gulf Coast, and all of the expansion projects are in the region. Hurricanes could disrupt operations at these terminals and interrupt the supply of these feedstocks to crackers and PDH units throughout the world. HURRICANES DISRUPT US LNG TERMINALSThe majority of US LNG capacity is on the Gulf Coast and its preponderance will only increase as the country starts up more terminals. This will have effects on US and global energy prices. Disruptions in global shipments could raise LNG costs. In the US, extended shutdowns of LNG terminals would increase supplies of natural gas, pushing prices lower for it and ethane. Lower ethane prices in the US could increase margins for ethylene derivatives. DISRUPTIONS TO US OIL EXPORTSThe Gulf Coast is a large exporter of oil, with major terminals in Corpus Christi, Houston and Nederland in Texas. In addition, the Gulf Coast is home to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the only deepwater crude port in the US. Companies are planning more offshore ports. Enterprise Products received a deepwater port license for its Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), which could load 2 million bbl/day of crude oil. If built, it would be built 30 nautical miles off the Texas coast. In 2020, Phillips 66 and Trafigura Group announced that they created a 50/50 joint venture called Bluewater Texas Terminal to develop an offshore deepwater oil port 21 nautical miles east of the port of Corpus Christi. Energy Transfer is proposing its Blue Marlin Offshore Port, which could load up to one very large crude carrier (VLCC) per day. Texas GulfLink, a subsidiary of Sentinal Midstream, is developing a deepwater oil terminal off the Gulf Coast. If built, these offshore oil ports would be vulnerable to hurricanes, along with the onshore terminals on the Gulf Coast. That could restrict global oil supplies and push prices higher. Higher prices would increase costs for crackers that use naphtha as a feedstock. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows damage caused by Hurricane Milton. Image by Chris Urso/Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

10-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japanese producers Idemitsu Kosan and Mitsui Chemicals on Wednesday said that they are moving to the front-end engineering and design (FEED) stage of a plan to consolidate their ethylene facilities in Chiba into a single unit. The two companies have completed the feasibility study for the project announced in late March, they said in a statement. Under the plan, Idemitsu's 413,000 tonne/year ethylene facility in Chiba will be closed, with operations to be combined with Mitsui's plant. Mitsui Chemicals has a bigger cracker with an ethylene capacity of 612,000 tonnes/year at the site. The two companies plan to complete the consolidation project by fiscal year 2027, which ends on 31 March 2028. The two plants are operated by their 50:50 joint venture company Chiba Chemicals, which was established in 2010. "The feasibility study examined the impact of consolidating the ethylene facilities on feedstock procurement, as well as on the production and supply setup for the products involved," they said. "As the two companies reached the conclusion that consolidation will be feasible, they have agreed to move on to the FEED phase." The FEED phase typically involves scrutinizing a project’s challenges, risks, costs and the like in greater detail, and determining the basic specifications of the plant.

09-Oct-2024

NEW YORK (ICIS)–Celanese sees a major growth opportunity in low carbon, recycled and bio-based materials, its CEO said. In January 2024, the company announced it started running a carbon capture and utilization (CCU) project at its Clear Lake, Texas, site as part of its Fairway Methanol joint venture with Mitsui & Co. The project is expected to capture 180,000 tonnes/year of CO2 industrial emissions and produce 130,000 tonnes/year of low-carbon methanol. “We actively capture carbon off some of the major producers in Clear Lake, Texas, at our site and we take those CO2 emissions… and we recycle it back into the ATR (autothermal reformer),” said Lori Ryerkerk, CEO of Celanese, on a webinar hosted by Chemical Marketing & Economics (CME-STEM). This low-carbon methanol can then be used to produce vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), vinyl acetate ethylene (VAE) emulsions and other downstream products, she added. “We have customers like Amazon that want a lower carbon footprint product, and we are able to meet that customer need,” said Ryerkerk. The CCU unit takes CO2 emissions that were otherwise being vented into the atmosphere from both Celanese and from third parties to use as a feedstock. “The exciting thing about this project is that we started it as a way to make more methanol and have found the value is also there for being able to produce through mass balance tracking, a green product that can be certified under the ISCC carbon footprint certification system,” said Ryerkerk. In March 2024, Celanese announced that the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) group certified its Low Carbon CCU Methanol under the ISCC Carbon Footprint Certification (CFC) system. Low Carbon CCU Methanol demonstrated a greater than 70% reduction in carbon footprint relative to a global average benchmark for fossil-based methanol production, as included in EU legislation, according to Celanese. “This is an area of growth for us – to be able to expand our green product offering,” said Ryerkerk. In Celanese’s Sustainable Solutions portfolio, those using carbon capture fall under the ECO-C label, with recycled content under ECO-R and bio-based content under ECO-B. RECYCLED AND RECYCLABLE CONTENTOn the recycled content side, Celanese in Europe recycles nylon airbags into high quality nylon which can be used by customers such as furniture giant IKEA, said Ryerkerk. IKEA has a goal of using only recycled or renewable-based plastic in all its products by 2030. “In India, we take fishing nets that are recovered from the sea, clean them, sort them and recycle them into a nylon grade which is used for furniture,” said Ryerkerk. “We have the ability to make recycled [products] across much of our portfolio now,” she added. Celanese also works with customers to develop products that are recyclable. An example is its NEOLAST fiber made from thermoplastic copolyester elastomer which can be blended with other fibers at a level anywhere from 2-40% of total fiber content. “We developed this fiber together with Under Armour to solve a problem they had with elastane (Spandex) because Spandex is energy intensive, uses solvents that aren’t very environmentally friendly, and tends to shed a lot of plastic fibers,” said Ryerkerk. “The great news is that this is recyclable. Elastanes are not. It’s solvent-free so more environmentally friendly from a production standpoint and it has better characteristics of wear – it’s more colorfast, better wicking, all these things,” she added. NEOLAST is in the very early stages of sales with Under Armour producing some products with the fiber and Celanese talking to a number of other companies interested in using it, the CEO said. “This is a long-term commitment. This has been in development for many, many years. We’ve just introduced it, and it will probably be several years yet before we really see widespread use of it,” said Ryerkerk, who noted that most of these types of new products take three to five years to develop. BIO-BASED CONTENTOther customers such as toy producer LEGO aim to use more renewable-based content. “We are able, since we start with bio-methanol and bio-ethylene – these building block chemicals – to make a bio-content material which we call ECO-B for those customers [that want to use] a non-fossil fuel feedstock,” said Ryerkerk. In H1 2024, 30% of the resin LEGO purchased was certified according to mass balance principles, which translated into an estimated average of 22% renewable sources. The company plans to “significantly increase this percentage” through the rest of 2024 and beyond. Celanese considers its ability to offer low carbon, recycled and bio-based products a unique competitive advantage. “Many of our competitors may offer one of these, but we’re probably one of the few that have the ability right now to offer all of them – and offer them in a way that is certified,” said Ryerkerk. GROWTH PROSPECTSCelanese’s Sustainable Solutions portfolio represents just around 5% of sales today but is growing double digits on a percentage basis every year, said the CEO. A stronger economic recovery would be a tailwind as these products are typically more expensive. “We’ll see what happens with the economy. Let’s be honest – most people are more interested in these things when the economy is better than when the economy is tough like it is right now,” said Ryerkerk. “But there are a lot of companies that have made commitments to go to more sustainable solutions. As our volumes grow, we’re able to make sustainable solutions more affordable for them… I think it is going to be quite some time before it is the majority of our portfolio, but that’s OK because we need time to build our capabilities as well,” she added. Focus article by Joseph Chang

27-Sep-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Mexican government has amended for the third time the decree regulating import and export permit requirements for several chemicals as well as fuel products and re-opened the door for 20-year permits. Among others, there were amendments published for permits to import key building blocks within the petrochemical industry, such as naphtha; products within the aromatics chain such as benzene and toluene; or within olefins such as ethylene, propylene and butadiene (BD). Within fuels, import permits for jet kerosene or biodiesel were amended, as well as those for feedstocks such as methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE). Read the list of products in the decree’s annexes (see here, in Spanish). The government said it was aiming to simplify the procedures by providing greater legal certainty and clarity to interested parties, seeking to facilitate compliance with obligations by considering the type of merchandise, its use, and the quantities requested. These import and export permits apply when the product is related to the energy industry or derives or is produced from hydrocarbons. For lubricants and additives, recent regulatory amendments have made it necessary to obtain a Permit for the import of such products, when classified under certain specific tariff codes. Some of the updates referred to the term of the permits for import and export, an aspect in which the government is backtracking its earlier decision from 2020 to withdraw 20-year permits existent at the time, according to a note to customers by the Mexican office of law firm Holland & Knight. “Permits are granted for different validity periods that vary based on the nature of the merchandise and its intended use. For merchandise intended for sporting events and research trials, both for import and export, the validity is sixty days. Standard permits for one year and five years may also be requested,” said Gabriel Ruiz, partner at the law firm. “Furthermore, permits for export may be granted for periods exceeding five to twenty years, provided the need for such permits is justified in the interest of social and economic benefit, subject to approval by the Ministry of Energy (SENER).” The decree also establishes specific requirements for obtaining prior import and export permits, differentiating the requirements based on the validity of each type of permit. Regarding renewals, permits granted for one year may be renewed up to two times for the same validity, while five-year permits may be renewed once for the same duration. For permits exceeding five years intended for export, the renewal will be singular and may extend up to half of the original validity; in the case of twenty-year permits, the renewal will be limited to the same proportion. The new rules published on 18 September came to amend a decree originally issued in December 2020, later amended in November 2022 and November 2023. These amendments were part of wider changes included in the Energy Reform passed in 2013, which sought to liberalize Mexico’s energy sector. The current Administration’s approach, however, has been keeping the state-owned energy companies – crude major Pemex or utility CFE are two of them – at the center of the country’s energy landscape. Front page picture source: Shutterstock

24-Sep-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets surged on Tuesday following announcement of fresh measures to rev up activity in the world’s second-biggest economy. As the close of trade on Tuesday, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) was leading the charge in China’s domestic futures market, with a 3.3% increase, with seven others also posting strong gains. Product Prices at close of trade (CNY/tonne) % change from 23 Sept Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)                                   7,969 1.2% Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)                                   5,388 3.3% Ethylene glycol (EG)                                   4,459 1.9% Polypropylene (PP)                                   7,360 1.4% Styrene monomer (SM)                                   8,559 0.7% Paraxylene *                                   7,012 2.4% Purified terephthalic acid (PTA)*                                   4,930 2.2% Methanol*                                   2,396 1.6% Sources: Dalian Commodity Exchange, *Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Shares of major Chinese chemical producers traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses also increased, welcoming the central bank’s economic measures. Company  Closing prices on 24 September (CNY/share) % change from 23 Sept Hengli Petrochemical 13.12 5.4% PetroChina 8.36 4.4% Rongsheng* Petrochemical 8.84 4.1% Satellite Chemical* 16.08 7.7% Sinopec 6.76 4.3% Wanhua Chemical 78.96 4.4% Sources: Shanghai and *Shenzhen bourses The Shanghai composite index surged by 4.15% to close at 2,863 on Tuesday. It was the index’s biggest single-day rally since 6 July 2020. People’s Bank of China (PBoC) governor Pan Gongsheng announced in a press conference the new economic measures, which include cuts on banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR), key policy rate and mortgage rates to revive the economy. China's economic weakness has been a major drag on overall sentiment across the equities and commodities markets this year. “The move [basket of stimulus by China’s central bank] is bold by historical standards and came earlier than we had expected,” said Betty Wang, lead economist at UK-based Oxford Economics, in a research note on Tuesday. “The policy measures include cuts to the policy rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR), adjustment to mortgage lending and policy support to stock market,” Wang said. “The continuous weakness in domestic economy and the outsized rate cut from the [US] Federal Reserve were the likely catalysts behind the PBoC's latest move,” the economist said. This is the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic that the central bank offered a combination of rate cuts, RRR cuts, and structural monetary policies as stimulus measures. A 20-basis point (bps) interest rate cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase (repo) rate and a broad-based 50bps RRR cut are also rare, Oxford Economics noted. Focus article by Fanny Zhang ($1 = CNY7.04) Thumbnail image: At a container terminal at Lianyungang Port in east China's Jiangsu Province, 18 September 2024. (Shutterstock)

24-Sep-2024

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Brazilian government’s committee on foreign trade Gecex-Camex approved late on Wednesday an increase in import taxes on more than 80 chemical and fertilizers products, with the new rate up to 20% for most materials. Among some of the products affected are widely used chemicals such polypropylene (PP), polyethylene, (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polystyrene (PS), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). See bottom list for details. Previous rates stood between 7.6% and 12.6%. The new rates will apply from October and are valid for one year. The decision is yet to be approved by Mercosur, the trading common area formed by Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, as well as Brazil, which is the dominant economy in Mercosur. The cabinet, thus, gave in partly to the pressure by chemical producers in Brazil. Earlier this year, individual companies as well as the trade group representing producers, Abiquim, had proposed to increase tariffs in more than 100 chemicals. The decision was widely anticipated by analysts, and it is expected to immediately prop up earnings for some of Brazil’s largest producers such polymers major Braskem or chlor-alkali major Unipar. Brazil has been the recipient of large amounts of imports from Asia and, to a lesser extent, the US which have greatly dented domestic producers’ market share. Sectors that opposed increasing tariffs, including plastic transformers represented by Abiplast, expressed their disappointment after Wednesday’s measure by Gecex-Camex. “[The decision was taken even though] Abiplast and other trade groups have exhaustively demonstrated to the government the harmful impacts of increases in import tariffs on raw materials,” said Jose Ricardo Roriz Coelho, president of Abiplast, in a letter to the trade group’s members seen by ICIS. “We will continue to fight to ensure that these unreasonable measures are reversed.” Product Current Tax Rate Proposed Tax Rate Plaintiff Phosphoric acid with iron content less than 750 ppm 9% 17.5% Abiquim Sodium hydrogen carbonate (bicarbonate) 9% 20%* Abiquim Isobutyl alcohol (2-methyl-1-propanol) 10.80% 20% Abiquim Isobutyl alcohol (2-methyl-1-propanol) 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Phenol (hydroxybenzene) and its salts 7.20% 12.6%* Abiquim Phenol (hydroxybenzene) and its salts 7.20% 12.6%* Rhodia Brasil SA Butanone (methyl ethyl ketone) 10.80% 20% Abiquim Ethyl acetate 10.80% 20% Abiquim n-butyl acetate 10.80% 20% Abiquim n-butyl acetate 10.80% 20% Rhodia Brasil SA Other saturated acyclic monoalcohol acetates, c atom <= 8 10.80% 20% Abiquim Methacrylic acid methyl esters 10.80% 20% Abiquim Methacrylic acid methyl esters 10.80% 20% Unigel Holdings Inc. Adipic acid 9% 20% Abiquim Adipic acid 9% 20% Rhodia Brasil SA Maleic anhydride 10.80% 20% Abiquim Maleic anhydride 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Fumaric acid, its salts and esters 10.80% 20% Abiquim Dioctyl orthophthalates 10.80% 20% Abiquim Dioctyl orthophthalates 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Dinonyl or didecyl orthophthalates 10.80% 20% Abiquim Hexamethylenediamine and its salts 10.80% 20% Abiquim Monoethanolamine and its salts 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other anionic organic surface-active agents, whether or not put up for retail sale, not classified under previous codes 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, with filler 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polyethylene with a density of less than 0.94, without filler 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other unfilled polyethylenes, density >= 0.94, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other copolymers of ethylene and vinyl acetate, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Copolymers of ethylene and alpha-olefin, with a specific gravity of less than 0.94 12.60% 20% Abiquim Unfilled polypropylene in primary form 12.60% 20% Abiquim Propylene copolymers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Expandable polystyrene, unfilled, in primary form 12.60% 18% Abiquim Other styrene polymers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other styrene polymers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Unigel Holdings Inc. Polyvinyl chloride, unmixed with other substances, obtained by suspension process 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polyethylene terephthalate of a viscosity index of 78 ml/g or more 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polyethylene terephthalate of a viscosity index of 78 ml/g or more 12.60% 20% Alpek Polyester Pernambuco SA Other unsaturated polyethers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Ex – Surfactant polymer class preparation, silicone free 12.60% 12.60% Abiquim Ex – Solvent-free modified polyester class preparation 12.60% 12.60% Abiquim White mineral oils (vaseline or paraffin oils) 3.60% 35% Abiquim Silicon dioxide obtained by chemical precipitation 9% 18% Abiquim Silicon dioxide obtained by chemical precipitation 9% 17% Rhodia Brasil SA Other silicon dioxides 0% 18% Abiquim Commercial ammonium carbonates and other ammonium carbonates 9% 18% Abiquim Styrene 9% 18% Abiquim Styrene 9% 18% Unigel Holdings Inc. Butan-1-ol (n-butyl alcohol) 10.80% 20% Abiquim Butan-1-ol (n-butyl alcohol) 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Propylene glycol (propane-1, 2-diol) 10.80% 20% Abiquim Dipropylene glycol 12.60% 20% Abiquim Triacetin 10.80% 20% Abiquim Triacetin 10.80% 20% Denver Specialty Chemicals 2-Ethylexanoic acid (2-ethylexoic acid) 10.80% 20% Abiquim 2-Ethylexanoic acid (2-ethylexoic acid) 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Salts and esters of adipic acid 10.80% 20% Abiquim Other esters of orthophthalic acid 10.80% 20% Abiquim Other esters of orthophthalic acid 10.80% 20% Elekeiroz Inc. Phthalic anhydride 10.80% 20% Abiquim Phthalic anhydride 10.80% 20% Petrom Petrochemicals Mogi das Cruzes S/A Ammonium nitrate, even in aqueous solution 0% 15% Abiquim Pigments and preparations based on these pigments 12.60% 20% Abiquim Linear alkylbenzene sulfonic acids and their salts 12.60% 23% Abiquim Organic surface-active agents, non-ionic 12.60% 23% Abiquim Alkylbenzene mixtures 10.80% 20% Abiquim Stearic acid (industrial monocarboxylic fatty acid) 5.40% 35% Abiquim Stearic alcohol (industrial fatty alcohol) 12.60% 20% Abiquim Sodium methylate in methanol 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other ethylene polymers, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Filled polypropylene, in primary form 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other polystyrenes in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other polystyrenes in primary forms 12.60% 20% Unigel Holdings Inc. Polyvinyl chloride, unmixed with other substances, obtained by emulsion process 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polymethyl methacrylate, in primary form 12.60% 20% Abiquim Polymethyl methacrylate, in primary form 12.60% 20% Unigel Holdings Inc. Other polyether polyols, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other polyesters in liquids and pastes 12.60% 20% Abiquim Other polyurethanes in liquids and pastes 12.60% 20% Abiquim Carboxymethyl cellulose with content >=75%, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Abiquim Carboxymethyl cellulose with content >=75%, in primary forms 12.60% 20% Denver Specialty Chemicals Styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR), food grade according to the Food Chemical Codex, in primary forms 10.80% 22% Abiquim Acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber in sheets, plates, etc. 10.80% 35% Abiquim Latex of other synthetic or artificial rubbers 10.80% 35% Abiquim  

19-Sep-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thai conglomerate Siam Cement Group (SCG) plans to use ethane imported from the US as feedstock for its Long Son Petrochemical (LSP) complex in Vietnam to boost the project’s long-term competitiveness. Storage, supporting facilities for ethane to be built on site Ethane targeted as major feedstock for LSP cracker; C2 market “turbulence” expected LSP commercial operations start October SCG is in talks with a contractor for the new ethane storage project, with construction of the facilities expected to take about three years to complete, the company said in roadshow presentation on 16 September. “The site is equipped with a central utility system, ready for the installation of ethane gas storage tanks and pipelines,” the company said in a separate statement on 16 September. SCG has yet to finalize the capital expenditure for the project, and the prospective US ethane supplier for LSP was not disclosed. The $5.4bn LSP project in Ba Ria-Vung Tao province is Vietnam’s first integrated petrochemical complex and is 100%-owned by Thai conglomerate SCG. The mixed-feed cracker at the site currently uses propane and naphtha feedstocks imported from Qatar under a long-term supply deal. The cracker can produce 950,000 tonnes/year of ethylene; 400,000 tonnes/year of propylene; and 100,000 tonnes/year of butadiene (BD). SCG said that LSP is already operating flexible gas cracker which can use a variety of feedstocks, including ethane, propane, and naphtha. Ethane imported from the US is currently cheaper by $200-400/tonne than existing feedstock, SCG said, noting that the average price of ethane has been around 40% lower than that of naphtha and propane over the past three years. The feedstock derived from shale gas also provides greater price stability as it is linked to US natural gas prices, unlike naphtha, which is influenced by oil price fluctuations. FEEDSTOCK DIVERSIFICATION The enhancement to LSP's feedstock flexibility is part of SCG's efforts to bolster its chemicals business in the face of global oversupply, low demand and oil price volatility, SCG said. For ethylene (C2), the company expects "future turbulence" in the market, especially in 2027-2028 amid a wave of new global cracker additions, especially in China. Global ethylene supply is projected by SCG to grow at a slower average rate of around 3-4% in 2025-2030, compared with 5% in 2019-2024. China will comprise around 53% of new ethylene supply additions in 2025-2030, it noted. SCG expects an "extended chemicals trough with low margin" in 2025-2030 amid continued naphtha price volatility. “The current global situation and the future outlook over the next 2-5 years will be marked by increased volatility,” SCG CEO and president Thammasak Sethaudom said on 16 September. “All SCG businesses are moving forward with strategies that align with these dynamics while also reducing carbon dioxide emissions…to ensure long-term competitiveness.” LSP COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS START OCTOBER The LSP complex has completed performance test runs in September and is on track to start commercial operations next month, according to SCG. Its utilization rate following start-up will be "determined by global demand dynamics", it said. LSP’s downstream plants include a 500,000 tonne/year high density polyethylene (HDPE) unit; a linear low density PE (LLDPE) unit of the same capacity; and a 400,000 tonne/year polypropylene (PP) unit. The cracker had an outage in February due to a technical issue and resumed normal operations in August. It had declared a force majeure in February due to issues at the cracker that also shut its downstream PE and PP units. Credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings in a note on 17 September said that it expects LSP to ramp up its utilization rate to 70-80% in 2025, “supported by its cost competitiveness versus imports and the flexibility to use both propane and naphtha as feedstock”. Imports currently fulfil nearly all of Vietnam's petrochemical requirements. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail photo: Aerial view of SCG's Long Son Petrochemical Complex in Vietnam (Source: SCG)

19-Sep-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. I did the same exercise on global ethylene markets almost exactly a year ago as I do in today's post. This makes me wonder why there is talk of early signs of a global recovery in olefins and derivative markets. Based on the new calculations, what would it take to return global operating rates to their very healthy 1992-2023 average of 88%? Assuming global production, which is about the same as demand, stays unchanged from our base case, global capacity would have to grow by an average of around 2m tonnes a year versus our base case of 6.2m tonnes a year. This implies capacity closures elsewhere to get to the 2m tonnes a year of 2024-2030 capacity growth. Global capacity would need to grow at an average 1% per year to achieve a 2024-2030 operating rate of 88%. This would compare with the 1992-2023 average of 4%. One might argue that we have underestimated global demand given the likelihood of a loosening cycle by the Fed, perhaps a big dose of Chinese economic stimulus, and booming economies in the developing world such as India’s. But what happens in the rest of the world is less consequence compared with events in China. Today’s second chart – showing China’s percentage shares of global demand for the major ethylene derivatives in 1992 (at the start of the Chemicals Supercycle) and by the end of this year – underlines the disproportionate role that China has come to play in driving global consumption: In 1992, from a 22% of the global population, China’s average share of global demand across these ethylene derivatives was 6%. China’s share of global demand is forecast to reach 40% from only an 18% share of the global population by the end of 2024. The Economist wrote in its 7 September issue that the real Chinese economic picture may be bleaker than is commonly painted. “The official [Chinese government] numbers show that the GDP growth rate has reverted to pre-pandemic level, despite the moribund housing industry and low investment in infrastructure,” wrote the magazine “This is a risible claim, says Logan Wright of Rhodium Group, a consulting firm. ‘The broader problem is simply that the GDP data have stopped bearing any resemblance to economic reality,’ he explains. My ICIS colleague, Kevin Swift, has looked at disagreements over China’s population level. In the blog’s 30 August post, he wrote: “Demographer Yi Fuxian at the University of Wisconsin has questioned assumptions about current Chinese population and the likely path forward. He examined China’s demographic data and found clear and frequent discrepancies. These should parallel each other, and they do not. “Yi posits that China population in 2020 was 1.29bn, not 1.42bn, an undercount of over 130m.” If China’s population was smaller than commonly assumed in 2020, so perhaps was its chemicals demand, making today’s global oversupply worse. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

17-Sep-2024