Polyethylene (PE)

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Colorless flake prices rise in Italy and Spain High feedstock bale costs still a concern Hopes for improved pellet demand from Q2

14-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The threat of additional US tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, and their potential impact is fostering a heightened level of uncertainty, dampening consumer, business and investor sentiment, along with clouding the 2025 outlook for chemicals and economies. The US chemical industry, a massive net exporter of chemicals and plastics to the tune of over $30 billion annually, is particularly exposed to retaliatory tariffs. Chemical company earnings guidance for Q1 and all of 2025 is already subdued, with the one common theme from the investor calls being little-to-no help expected from macroeconomic factors this year. Tariffs only cloud the outlook further. Tariffs have long been a feature of US economic and fiscal policy. In the period to the 1940s, tariffs were used as a major revenue source to fund the federal government before the introduction of the income tax and were also used to protect domestic industries. After 1945, a neo-liberal world order arose, which resulted in a lowering of tariffs and other trade barriers and the rise of globalization. With the collapse of the Doha Round of trade negotiations in 2008, this drive stalled and began to reverse. Heading into this year’s International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), it is clear that the neo-liberal world order has ended. Rising geopolitical tensions and logistics issues from COVID led many firms to diversify supply chains, leading to reshoring benefiting India, Southeast Asia, Mexico and others, and to the rise of a multi-polar world. It is also resulting in the rise of tariffs and other trade barriers around the world, most notably as US trade policy. FLUID US TRADE POLICYThe US administration’s policy stance on tariffs has been very fluid, changing from day to day. It is implementing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on 12 March and has already placed additional tariffs of 20% on all imports from China as of 4 March (10% on 4 February, plus 10% on 4 March). On 11 March, the US announced steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada would be ramped up to 50% in retaliation for Canadian province Ontario placing 25% tariffs on electricity exports to the US. Later, Ontario suspended the US electricity surcharge, and the US did not impose the 50% steel and aluminium tariff. The US had placed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada (10% on energy) and Mexico on 4 March but then on 5 March exempted automotive and then on 6 March announced a pause until 2 April. China retaliated by implementing 15% tariffs on US imports of meat, fish and various crops, along with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal. Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs on C$30 billion worth of goods on 4 March and then with the US pause, is delaying a second round of tariffs on C$125 billion of US imports until 2 April. Mexico planned to retaliate on 9 March but has not following the US pause. US President Trump has also threatened the EU with 25% tariffs. We have a trade war and as 1960s Motown artist Edwin Starr sang, “War, huh, yeah… What is it good for?… Absolutely nothing.” Canada, Mexico and China are the top three trading partners of the US, collectively making up over 40% of US imports and exports. The three North American economies, until recently, had low or non-existent tariffs on almost all of the goods they trade. This dates back to the 1994 NAFTA free trade agreement, which was renegotiated in 2020 as the USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement). A reasoning behind the tariff threats on Canada and Mexico is to force Canada and Mexico to stop illegal drugs and undocumented migrants from crossing into the US. These tariffs were first postponed in early February after both countries promised measures on border security, but apparently more is desired. But the US also runs big trade deficits with both countries. Here, tariffs are seen by the administration as the best way to force companies that want US market access to invest in US production. IMPACT ON AUTOMOTIVEUS automakers are the most exposed end market to US tariffs and potential retaliatory tariffs, as their supply chains are even more highly integrated with Mexico and Canada following the USMCA free trade deal in 2020. The USMCA established Rules of Origin which require a certain amount of content in a vehicle produced within the North America trading partners to avoid duties. For example, at least 75% of a vehicle’s Regional Value Content must come from within the USMCA partners – up from 62.5% under the previous NAFTA deal. Supply chains are deeply intertwined. In the North American light vehicle industry, materials, parts and components can cross borders – and now potential tariff regimes – more than six times before a finished vehicle is delivered to the dealer’s lot. US prices for those goods will likely rise. The degree to which they rise (extent to which tariffs costs will pass through) depends upon availability of alternatives, structure of the domestic industry and pricing power, and currency movements. In addition, some of the Administration’s polices dealing with deregulation, energy, and tax will have a mitigating effect on the negative impact of tariffs for the US. The 25% steel and aluminium tariffs will add nearly $1,500 to the cost of a light vehicle and will result in lower sales for the automotive industry which has been plagued in recent years by affordability issues. If it had been implemented, the 50% tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada would only compound the pricing impact. All things being equal, 25% tariffs on the metals would push down sales by about 525,000 units but some of the favorable factors cited above as well as not all costs being passed through to consumers will partially offset the effects of higher metal prices. Partially is the key word. Since so many parts, components, and finished vehicles are produced in Canada and Mexico, US 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico would add further to the price effects. The economic law of demand holds that as prices of a good rise, demand for the good will fall. ECONOMIC IMPACTTariffs will dampen demand across myriad industries and markets, and could add to inflation. By demand, we mean the aggregate demand of economists as measured by GDP. Aggregate demand primarily consists of consumer spending, business fixed investment, housing investment, and government purchases of goods and services. Tariffs would likely add to inflation but the effects would begin to dissipate after a year or so. By themselves, the current round of tariffs on steel and aluminium and on goods from Canada, Mexico and China will dampen demand due to higher prices. Plus, as trading partners retaliate, US exports would be at risk. Preliminary estimates suggest the annual impact from these tariffs – in isolation – on US GDP during the next three years could average 1.4 percentage points from baseline GDP growth. Keep in mind that there are many moving parts to the economy and that the more favorable policies could offset some of this and, as a result, the average drag on GDP could be limited to a 0.5 percentage point reduction from the baseline. POTENTIAL GDP IMPACT OF US TARIFFS – 20% ON CHINA, 25% ON MEXICO AND CANADA Real GDP is a good proxy for what could happen in the various end-use markets for plastic resins and the reduction of US economic growth. In outlying years, however, tariffs could support reshoring and business fixed investment. The hits on Mexico and Canada would be particularly. China’s economic growth would be affected as well. But China can shift exports to other markets. Mexico and Canada have fewer options. Resilience will be key to growing uncertainty and will lead to shifting trade patterns and new market opportunities. This is where scenarios, sound planning and strategies, and leadership come into play. US EXPORTS AT RISK, SUPPLY CHAINS TO SHIFTUS PE exports are particularly vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs. The US is specifically targeting tariffs on countries and regions that absorb around 52% of US PE exports – China, the EU, Mexico and Canada, according to an ICIS analysis. Aside from PE, the US exports major volumes of PP, ethylene glycol (EG), methanol, PVC, styrene and vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), along with base oils to countries and regions targeted with tariffs. The US exports nearly 50% of PE production with China and Mexico being major outlets. China has only a 6.5% duty on imports of US PE, having provided its importers with waivers in February 2020 that took rates to pre-US-China trade war levels. The US-China trade war under the first US Trump administration started in 2018 with escalating tariffs on both sides, before a phase 1 deal was struck in December 2019 that removed some tariffs and reduced others. After the waivers offered by China to importers in February 2020, US exports of PE and other ethylene derivatives surged before falling back in 2021 from the COVID impact. They then rocketed higher through 2023 and remained at high levels in 2024. Since 2017, the year before the first US-China trade war, US ethylene and derivative exports to China are up more than 4 times, leaving them more exposed than ever to China. With tariff escalation, chemical trade flows would shift dramatically. Just one example is in isopropanol (IPA). Shell in Sarnia, Ontario, Canada, produces IPA, of which over 85% is shipped to the US, mainly to the northeast customers, said ICIS senior market analyst Manny Borges. “It is a better supply chain for the customers instead of shipping product from the US Gulf,” said Borges. “With the increase in tariffs, we will see several customers shifting volumes to domestic producers or countries where the tariffs are not applied,” he added. US IPA producers are running their plants at around 67% of capacity on average and have sufficient capacity to supply the entire domestic market, the analyst pointed out. This dynamic, where US producers supply more of the local market versus imports, would likely play out across multiple product chains as well, especially in olefins where the US is more than self-sufficient. Even as the US is more than self-sufficient in, and a big net exporter of PE, ethylene glycols, polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), it imports significant quantities from Canada. In the event of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, US producers could easily fill the gap, although logistics would have to be reworked. Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Insight article by Kevin Swift and Joseph Chang

12-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Whether it is dealing with on-again, off-again tariffs, new charges at US ports for carriers with China-flagged vessels in their fleets, or booking passage through the Panama Canal, participants at this year's International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) have plenty to talk about. Last year, shippers were dealing with tight global capacity after carriers began avoiding the Suez Canal because of attacks on commercial vessels by Houthi rebels, the possibility of labor issues at US Gulf and East Coast ports, and fewer slots for passage through the Panama Canal as that region dealt with a severe drought. But 2025 has brought a new series of challenges that will keep logistics and supply chain professionals busy. TARIFFS The US has imposed tariffs of 25% on most imports from Canada and Mexico, effective 4 March, but US President Donald Trump said last week that tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada that are compliant with the USMCA free trade agreement will be exempt until 2 April. It is unclear what shifts in trade flows will be seen once tariffs are fully implemented, but analysts at Dutch banking and financial services corporation ING still expect global trade to see solid growth amid trade tensions, geopolitical risks and economic nationalism. ING expects trade in goods to grow by 2.5% year on year in 2025, driven by heavy front-loading in the first quarter and increased intra-continental trade throughout the year. “While it is true that some countries heavily depend on the US market, such as Canada and Mexico, global trade is far more diverse and does not solely revolve around the United States,” ING said. According to the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) data, which contains trade data among 122 countries, the US accounts for 13.6% of total global exports. Additionally, the reliance on raw materials and critical intermediate products that cannot be substituted, as well as new alliances and potential trade deals speak for continued trade in goods. STRATEGIES FOR ADAPTATION Chemical distributor GreenChem Industries offered suggestions that chemical companies could implement to mitigate the effects of tariffs. These include finding new sources for raw materials in regions with favorable trade agreements, modifying transportation routes and methods to lower costs and enhance efficiency, discovering more affordable chemical alternatives that maintain quality, reevaluating trade agreements to secure more competitive pricing, and investigating the potential for manufacturing within strategic markets to avoid extra costs. USTR HEARING ON NEW PORT CHARGES The office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) is accepting public comment on proposed actions against Chinese-owned ships after a Section 301 investigation determined China’s acts, policies and practices to be unreasonable and to burden or restrict US commerce. The proposal includes proposed service fees of up to $1.5 million per US port call for vessels built in China, and up to $1 million per port call for China-based operators. USTR is now accepting public comment and will hold a public hearing on the proposed actions on 24 March. Some market players feel the proposal is aimed at container ships, but a broker in the liquid chemical tanker space said that if the text of the prosed action remains unchanged, the China-built tankers comprising the fleets of shipping majors Stolt and Odjfell could be targeted. As of now, the proposal would include all commercial vessels calling on US ports. The West Gulf Maritime Association (WGMA) said that currently, there is not enough US inventory to meet the demand for maritime transport nor has the USTR suggested plans for meeting the projected demands. There is also not enough shipbuilding capacity within the US to construct the required hulls. Based on the draft executive order, the USTR will have no more than 180 days to implement the port fee collection program. The WGMA intends to individually and collectively submit comments against the proposed policy as written with recommendations, and they strongly encourage all shipping companies and vessel operators do the same through any means available to them. LIQUID CHEMICAL TANKERS Trade data from 2024 shows that about 25% of US liquid bulk exports and 21% of imports were carried on Chinese-built vessels, which will particularly impact the specialty chemical, vegetable oils and renewable fuels sectors. The fees would mean increasing the number of exports on US-flagged vessels and, given the limited existing US-flagged chemical tanker fleet, this will make any shortfall difficult to make up. Typically, it will take 24-36 months for construction of these type of specialized vessels, therefore the industry will face significant challenges in the meantime. These significant increases would most likely lead to a few different scenarios such as substantial rate increases, fewer port calls and potential supply chain disruptions for US manufacturers relying on specialty chemical imports. As a result, most owners and charterers are taking a wait and see approach while looking for longer term solutions. Liquid tanker spot rates hit their highest over the past decade in 2025 but have fallen from the peaks, according to ICIS pricing history. The following chart shows rates over the past year on the US Gulf-Asia trade route. CONTAINER RATES Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US have fallen considerable this year as capacity adjusted to diversions away from the Suez Canal and as newly built vessels entered the market. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said that the combination of a seasonal slump in demand and the possible end of frontloading ahead of tariffs likely drove the sharp fall in transpacific ocean rates recently. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. PANAMA CANAL Because of a severe drought that lowered levels in the freshwater lake that serves the Panama Canal, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) was forced to limit daily crossings for the first time in its history. The drought was in part brought about because of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which contributes to less rainfall, especially during what is the typical rainy season. But weather patterns have shifted to La Nina, which brings increased rains and have helped levels at Gatun Lake approach capacity. Gabriel Mariscal, agency business manager at port service provider CB Fenton & Co, said the situation at the Panama Canal is completely different from a year ago. “We are not expecting to have any restrictions this year in regard to transit,” Mariscal told ICIS. “In fact, during a normal summer season, perhaps there could be a draft restriction at the Neopanamax locks, but I think that this year that will not be the case.” Mariscal said the PCA is updating regulations for customer rankings. Customer rankings consider the volumes a shipper moved through the canal over the previous 12 months, as well as the number of tolls they have paid. For example, if there are 10 slots for passage on a given day, and the PCA receives 20 requests for those slots, the higher-ranking customers will get priority. If a shipper is unable to book a slot in the first period (90 days before passage) or the second booking period (14 days before passage) then they go to the auction, where the highest bidder wins. Container shipping companies Maersk and MSC are the highest two ranked customers at present. Mariscal said Maersk has at least three vessels that transit the canal each day. PANAMA TENSIONS WITH US Mariscal said that the new presidential administration under Trump has caused some stress for the central American country. Because of this, he expects extreme care to be taken by the PCA when announcing new rules or regulations so as not to increase tensions. Trump surprised some shortly after his inauguration when he said that the US should reclaim the Panama Canal. A US congressman has since introduced a bill that would authorize the purchase of the Panama Canal. Trump threatened to reclaim the canal if Panama did not take immediate steps to curb what Trump called China’s influence and control over the vital waterway. Panama’s president said in early February the country will not renew its agreement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) after a visit from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Then, last week a consortium led by private equity firm BlackRock agreed to pay $22.8 billion for port terminal operations from Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), which includes terminals in Panama. It was Hong Kong-listed CK Hutchison’s ownership of the ports at both entrances to the canal that likely concerned Trump. Hosted by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM), the IPC takes place on 23-25 March in San Antonio, Texas. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Macroeconomics: Impact on chemicals topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Focus article by Adam Yanelli Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Thumbnail image shows a container ship passing through the Panama Canal. Courtesy the Panama Canal Authority

11-Mar-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 7 March 2025. Europe glycerine spot prices rise on prolonged shortages Constrained crude glycerine availability evident over an extended length of time has exerted upward pricing pressure on all glycerine grades in the European market, resulting in spot prices rising this week. INSIGHT: Half a decade on from the pandemic, feedstock pricing volatility remains widespread and perhaps irreversible Next week marks half a decade since major lockdowns were enforced across Europe in response to the coronavirus pandemic, and the obvious thing to do would be to reflect back on how much life has changed over the past five years. Europe colorless PET bottle bale prices rise for first time since Q2 2024 Reduced supply and higher demand from the downstream recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) flake sector have seen colorless (C) post-consumer PET bottle bale prices in northwest Europe (NWE) rise for the first time since April 2024. Europe chems stocks tank amid tariff-driven global sell-off European chemicals stocks fell on Tuesday in line with a wider market sell-off as the US prepares to impose wide-ranging tariffs on Mexico and Canada and China announced retaliatory tariffs on the US, deepening global trade tensions. BASF not looking to tailwinds for 2025 earnings growth BASF expects to increase earnings in 2025, with most units other than chemicals expected to contribute to annual growth, but it is not expecting much support from economic tailwinds this year.

10-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment in Asia’s petrochemical markets remains cautious with prices of some products – particularly in the southeastern region – were rising on tight supply, amid escalating trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners, including China. China’s oversupply-driven exports weigh on markets; post-Lunar New Year demand weaker than expected US tariff fears cause jitters across downstream industries Methanol supply constraints persist TRADES REMAIN SUBDUED Market activity in key chemical segments remains muted as buyers were staying on the sidelines, waiting for clarity on US trade policies and overall demand recovery. In the benzene market, South Korea’s January exports to the US slumped by 81% year on year to 15,000 tonnes, according to ICIS data. The decline was attributed to increased European supply to the US. “The market is cautious as everyone is waiting for more clarity on US tariff policies,” a trader said. South Korea faces potential hefty tariffs under the US’ plan to impose reciprocal tariffs from 2 April, even though the two countries have an existing free trade agreement. In the caprolactam (capro) market, producers are grappling with poor margins while supply within China continues to grow. “Capro margins have been bad for six months now, and demand didn’t pick up post-Lunar New Year,” said a Chinese producer. Chinese producers were exporting more to southeast Asia and Europe, in view of a general oversupply of petrochemicals and muted demand in the domestic market and following the US’ new 20% tariffs on all Chinese goods. For polypropylene (PP), China has ramped up exports to Vietnam and other southeast Asian nations which were exerting downward pressure on prices. With more Chinese capacity coming online, this trade flow is likely to continue. Chinese producers are increasingly willing to accept lower margins to capture market share in the polyolefin markets, creating ripple effects across Asia and beyond, forcing regional producers to adjust pricing strategies to remain competitive. However, these actions could be met with antidumping duties (ADD) as southeast Asian governments act to protect domestic producers. SHIPPING SECTOR WARY OF US POLICIES US protectionism is on the rise again under President Donald Trump’s administration, with an ongoing probe being conducted on China’s shipbuilding industry, which may be slapped with potential duties of up to $1.5 million per vessel. This move aims to deter reliance on Chinese-built ships and, instead, encourage investment in the US shipbuilding sector. China dominates the global shipbuilding industry, with over 81% of new tankers being built in the country, according to shipbroker Xclusiv in a November report. The fear is that if these tariffs come through, immediate cost impacts will be felt, especially on long-haul trades. Meanwhile, weaker freight demand post-Lunar New Year has also softened freight rates. Most downstream producers in China resumed operations in H2 February, after an extended holiday break. China was on official holiday from 28 January to 4 February. The northeast Asia winter was milder than expected, which reduced seasonal trade flows. DISRUPTIONS TIGHTEN SUPPLY While some chemical markets struggle with oversupply, others are experiencing tight supply due to plant outages. For methanol, supply is constrained in Malaysia, with Petronas’ unit experiencing operational issues, and Sarawak Petchem’s unit shut from late January. Iranian methanol plants have also been offline due to winter gas shortages, pushing Indian import prices up by $60/tonne within a week. Meanwhile, Russian supply disruptions due to drone attacks have tightened naphtha availability, strengthening prices. On the acetic acid front, plant turnarounds in China, Malaysia, and Japan initially tightened supply, but these units have since restarted, thereby improving availability of the material. OUTLOOK MIXED Market players remain wary of near-term price movements as supply and demand fundamentals shift across regions. March shipments for PE and PP in southeast Asia have largely been sold out, while Indonesian buyers are reluctant to commit to April purchases amid the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which started 1 March. Ramadan is observed in most parts of southeast Asia including Indonesia, southeast Asia’s biggest economy with a predominantly Muslim population. With uncertainties surrounding US’ trade policies, Chinese exports, and geopolitical risks, market sentiment remains mixed. Players are closely monitoring tariff developments and the potential impacts of further supply disruptions in key markets. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting from Seng Li Peng, Isaac Tan, Tan Hwee Hwee, Angeline Soh, Jasmine Khoo, Julia Tan, Josh Quah, Damini Dabholkar, Doris He, Jackie Wong Thumbnail image: At Qingdao Port in Shandong province, China on 6 March 2025. (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

10-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Shipping container rates from Asia to both US coasts fell again this week as capacity has grown and as volumes have fallen after frontloading to beat tariffs, and liquid tanker rates rose on the transatlantic eastbound route and fell on the US Gulf to Asia trade lane. CONTAINER RATES Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 9% this week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry, while rates from Shanghai to New York fell by 6%, as shown in the following chart. Rates to both US coasts are now at their lowest of the year, according to Drewry data. Global average rates in Drewry’s World Container Index fell by 3% and are also at their lowest over the past year, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects rates to continue to decrease next week due to increased shipping capacity. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos showed significant decreases this week, although their rates are slightly higher than Drewry’s. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said that tariffs – or the threat of tariffs – led to many importers frontloading volumes to beat the announced levies. “The president’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could go into effect as soon as April – as could a wider application of reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries – meaning the window to receive goods before then is about closed,” Levine said. Levine said that the combination of a seasonal slump in demand and the possible end of frontloading likely drove the sharp fall in transpacific ocean rates last week. “If frontloading of the past few months was significant enough, we could also expect to see subdued peak season demand and rates as a result,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES MIXED US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were mixed week on week. Trade routes from the US remain mixed with several trade lanes slightly higher and others lower. Cargo moving into Asia weakens following the recent tariff announcements and this route has recently seen a decrease of cargoes, as the tariffs have all but halted any spot activity for this trade lane. As a result, rates have dipped from the previous week. On the other hand, the rates from USG to Rotterdam experienced upward pressure. For this trade lane freight rates for March have strengthened, given the amount of space left. A shipowner said it is expecting the trend to continue throughout March, with higher contract of affreightment (COA) utilization leaving very little available space. From the USG to Brazil, this market has remained relatively unchanged but is experiencing some downward pressure. While the market continues to be active it is further influenced by freight availability and a swing in trade lane dynamics. Demand remains soft particularly for larger parcels further pressuring some downward movement. On the USG to India trade lane, the market remains extremely soft with plenty of space available as outsiders have entered the market. As a result, this has placed downward pressure, and rates could fall further on the route if this persists. Several inquiries were seen for monoethylene glycol (MEG), methanol, ethanol, and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), but few fixtures were seen in the market. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan

07-Mar-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: FD NWE colourless (C) bale prices rise for first time since May 2024 FD NWE C and mixed coloured flake prices rise at low end in March Food-grade pellet range widens, as UK C flake range narrows

07-Mar-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Fresh US tariffs posing a big risk for polyethylene (PE), a chemical industry under threat of “extinction”, more Q4 results to pore over from EU polyolefins. There’s yet again plenty to digest for Europe polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) senior editors. Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake are joined by senior analysts Lorenzo Meazza (PE) and Emiliano Basualto (PP) to consider February trends, what to expect in March and the rest of 2025. Last but not least, they look at different scenarios that US tariffs will affect PE and PP. They touch on articles including US PE exports most vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs, Saudi plans for a new Sipchem/LyondellBasell mixed feed cracker and Orlen’s Q4 petchem operating loss improving. Podcast edited by Nick Cleeve ICIS senior analysts, editors and managers will be at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Cologne, Germany on the 8-9 April for the 11th ICIS World Polyolefins Conference. You’ll also get to hear from industry leaders like Borealis, LyondellBasell and Covestro, as they share their insights. Discover more:

06-Mar-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. As China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) wraps up on 11 March, the big question remains: Will policy announcements change the grim reality shown in the two charts below? Since the Evergrande Turning Point in August 2021, we’ve witnessed an unprecedented chemicals and polymers downturn—one that could stretch for another decade. The Chemicals Supercycle (1993-2021) drove demand thanks to favorable demographics, globalization, and the real estate boom. During this period, CFR China PE spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs averaged $532/tonne. But from 2022-2025, spreads have slumped to an average of $296/tonne, the longest and deepest decline in history. To return to Supercycle levels: HDPE injection spreads would need to jump 133% LDPE spreads would need a 43% boost LLDPE spreads would have to rise 91% Yet, despite hopes for recovery, spreads have remained at rock bottom since early 2022. Margins in Freefall: A Historic Collapse Northeast Asian PE margins tell the same story. From January 2014 to December 2022, they averaged $461/tonne. But since early 2022? Just $8/tonne, with frequent weeks of negative margins. This isn’t just about cyclical demand. The pandemic wasn’t bad for petrochemicals—stimulus-driven demand and supply chain disruptions actually boosted margins. The real turning point came in 2021, when Evergrande’s collapse signaled the end of China’s real estate bubble. Chemical demand forecasts have since been slashed from 6-8% growth to a more realistic 1-4%. Will the NPC Meeting Change the Game? Premier Li Qiang’s 5% GDP growth target for 2025 raises big questions. With mounting U.S. tariffs (now 20-45% on key goods) and domestic economic challenges, is this goal even achievable? China’s government has rolled out new strategies: Increased fiscal spending – boosting the deficit target to 4% of GDP Stimulus for domestic demand – treasury bonds, consumer subsidies Tech self-sufficiency – AI, supply chain investments But will these be enough? Unlikely. The major obstacles remain: Trade tensions – Export-driven growth faces U.S. and global trade barriers Debt crisis – Local government debt limits room for aggressive stimulus Demographic headwinds – Aging population and declining birth rates The Harsh Reality: Supply Must Shrink The numbers don’t lie. No policy shift will bring back the Chemicals Supercycle. Without massive global capacity cuts, spreads and margins will remain depressed. That means shutdowns—likely in South Korea, Europe, and Southeast Asia, where plants are less competitive. Unless we see unprecedented reductions in production, this downturn will drag on for years. Depressing? Yes. But ignoring reality won’t help. The chemicals industry must adapt—or face an extended period of financial pain. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

06-Mar-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US polyethylene terephthalate markets reporter Melissa Wheeler interviews Vice President of the North America PET/Polyester Chain, Antulio Borneo. PET market factors discussed include: Tariffs on Mexico and Canada imports and the impacts to the US PET market Supply and demand balance going into the peak summer season China’s antimony bans on exports to the US and the impact that will have on PET production PET resins can be broadly classified into bottle, fibre or film grade, named according to the downstream applications. Bottle grade resin is the most commonly traded form of PET resin and it is used in bottle and container packaging through blow molding and thermoforming. Fibre grade resin goes into making polyester fibre, while film grade resin is used in electrical and flexible packaging applications. PET can be compounded with glass fibre for the production of engineering plastics. DAK Americas, Indorama, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation and Far Eastern New Century (FENC) are PET producers in the US.

05-Mar-2025