Polypropylene (PP)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Taiwan's ethylene crackers are expected to run at 60-70% of capacity on average this year amid heightened regional competition and weak downstream demand, according to the Petrochemical Industry Association of Taiwan (PIAT). Economic uncertainty, US tariffs and geopolitical risk are pressure points for the industry, the industry body said in a report released at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025 on 15-16 May in Bangkok. Taiwan’s ethylene capacity is about 4.0 million tonnes; while its propylene capacity is about 3.4 million tonnes, according to PIAT. Despite a potential short-term rebound in prices for Taiwan’s petrochemical sector in 2025, continued capacity extensions in China will “intensify market price competition”, PIAT said. For 2025, it forecasts a 2.7% growth for both supply and demand of ethylene, with a projected 61% surge in exports. Propylene, on the other hand, is expected to post a 2.2% contraction in both supply and demand, with exports expected to more than double. Ethylene (in tonnes) 2024 2025 (estimated) change Supply Production 2,596,243 2,650,000 2.1% Import 228,176 250,000 9.6% Total 2,824,419 2,900,000 2.7% Demand Domestic 2,818,820 2,891,000 2.6% Export 5,599 9,000 60.8% Total 2,824,419 2,900,000 2.7% Year End Capacity (tonnes/year) 4,005,000 4,005,000  Propylene (in tonnes) 2024 2025 (estimated) change Supply Production 2,315,130 2,363,700 2.1% Import 309,100 202,600 -34.5% Total 2,624,230 2,566,300 -2.2% Demand Domestic 2,566,418 2,400,500 -6.5% Export 57,812 165,800 186.8% Total 2,624,230 2,566,300 -2.2% Year End Capacity (tonnes/year) 3,370,500 3,370,500 Source: PIAT China is expected to increase its 2025 ethylene capacity by approximately 7.8 million tonnes, or by 15%, to 60.99 million tonnes. But ethylene derivative consumption is expected to grow at a slower rate of 12.6%, and ethylene demand is expected to rise by just 6%, PIAT said, posing a challenge for neighboring suppliers that have historically relied on exports to China. Taiwanese producers have either reduced operating rates or remained idle over the past three years, while ethylene exports to China dropped to zero last year. “Given weak downstream demand and regional competition, cracker utilization rates are expected to average 60%-70% in 2025,” PIAT said in the report. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s demand for propylene is expected to weaken further due to weak downstream demand, particularly for polypropylene (PP) and epichlorohydrin (ECH). China's ongoing capacity expansion also continues to pressure Taiwanese producers, said the PIAT. Since 2024, Taiwan’s propylene exports to China have been subject to tariffs, posing a challenge for accessing the Chinese market. According to PIAT data, major petrochemical production dropped 2.39%, exports were down by 4.3% and demand fell by 1.1% in 2024 from the previous year. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image At the port city of Keelung, Taiwan on 20 March 2025. (RITCHIE B TONGO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

19-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US importers rushed to book space on container ships out of China after the two countries agreed to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, according to data from shipping analyst Vizion. Ben Tracy, vice president of strategic business development at Vizion, said in a LinkedIn post that the rolling seven-day average for bookings from China to the US jumped to 21,530 TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) this week from 5,709 TEUs last week, an increase of 277%. “We are definitely starting to see the bookings return now that this temporary pause is in effect,” Tracy said. Ryan Petersen, CEO of US logistics platform provider Flexport, said in a social media post on Tuesday that ocean freight bookings from China to the US jumped by 35% on the first day since the pause. “A big backlog is looming,” Petersen said. “Soon the ships will be sold out.” The surge in traffic along the trade lane immediately contributed to a rise in spot rates, as was expected. Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, said this week that many carriers had already announced GRIs (general rate increases) for the Pacific trade before US President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire in the trade war. “This is not because the carriers were able to forecast this exact development, but rather because the carriers are in the habit of pre-emptively announcing GRIs,” Jensen said. “If market conditions are then strong, these might stick, otherwise they go unnoticed.” Rates for shipping containers are already showing increases week on week. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos showed minimal increases earlier this week, but rates from supply chain advisors Drewry on Thursday showed significant increases of 19% from Shanghai to New York and 16% from Shanghai to Los Angeles. Arrivals at the West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach were slowing while the reciprocal tariffs were in place, but the ports saw record volumes in March and April as importers pulled forward volumes before the tariffs went into effect. May volumes are expected to be down by as much as 10%, according to officials at the Port of Long Beach. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

15-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The tariff deal that the US has reached with China did not eliminate the duties on steel, aluminium and auto parts, all of which could lower automobile production and reduce demand for the plastics and chemicals used to make the vehicles. The US maintained its 25% sectoral tariffs on Chinese imports of steel, aluminium and auto parts. It levies the same tariffs on imports from much of the world. Imports from Canada and Mexico can avoid the tariffs if they comply with the nations' trade agreement, known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Oxford Economics expects US auto production will fall by -2.0% to -0.9% year on year in 2025. Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency, lowered its US auto sales forecast by 6.7% and warned of production cuts. WHY ARE AUTOS IMPORTANT TO CHEMSAutomobiles made in North American contain an average of 198 kg of plastic, according to ICIS, making them an important end market for producers. Polypropylene (PP) is the most commonly used resin in North American automobiles followed by polyurethanes and nylon, as shown in the following charts. In addition, automobiles are large end markets for paints and coatings. In all, the typical automobile has nearly $4,000 worth of chemistry WHAT CHEMS SAY ABOUT AUTOSCelanese, whose Engineered Materials segment is heavily dependent on autos, stressed the uncertainty about the effects that tariffs will have on this key end market during the second half of the year. It will prepare by reducing inventory, controlling costs and lowering operating rates if warranted by demand weakness. Polyurethanes producer Huntsman is seeing automobile build rates drop low-single digit percentages. By the time order patterns trickle through original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and down to chemical companies, Huntsman is seeing double-digit drops in some order patterns. AdvanSix warned that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting the market for nylon and other engineering plastics. Axalta Coating Systems, which makes auto paint, warned of a $50 million gross annualized charge from tariffs. Axalta lowered its 2025 sales guidance to $5,300-5,375 million from $5,350-5,400 million. Earnings guidance remained unchanged. Steps that Axalta could take to offset a portion of that hit include insourcing production capacity to domestic plants; sourcing raw materials locally; reformulating products; managing strategic inventory; and executing pricing actions. TARIFFS RAISE AUTO COSTS, THREATEN OUTPUTTariffs on auto inputs will increase costs for vehicles, and producers will likely pass through a portion of those higher costs to customers. The size of those cost pass throughs will play a large role in the tariffs' effects on chemical demand. Higher prices for automobiles will discourage sales. Lower sales will reduce auto production and cut demand for plastics and chemicals used to make those vehicles. THE EFFECT SO FAR ON AUTO BUILDSPrior to the announcement of the US and China trade deal, Ford estimated that the gross cost impact from the tariffs is $2.5 billion. Among that, half will come from imported and exported parts as well as the effect that steel and aluminium tariffs will have on domestic prices. The rest is from imported vehicles. Already, Stellantis halted production for two weeks at a plant in Windsor, Ontario Province, Canada, because of tariffs. AUTO'S EXPOSURE TO TARIFFSThe US auto industry's exposure to tariffs is not trivial because the country imports enormous amounts of auto parts, steel and aluminium. Many of these products are subject to 25% sectoral tariffs or 10% baseline tariffs. More than 50% of the content of cars assembled in the US is imported, according to a 3 May CNN article, citing US government statistics. AUTO PART TARIFFSThe following chart breaks down 2024 general imports by country for auto parts under the 8708 code of the harmonized tariff schedule (HTS). Figures are in billions of dollars. Source: US International Trade Commission (ITC) Not all auto parts will be hit by the 25% tariffs. Some parts are excluded. Those from Mexico and Canada will escape the levy if they comply with the USMCA. STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFSThe following chart shows 2024 general imports of iron and steel under the HTS codes 7206-7224. These codes cover iron and nonalloy steel; stainless steel; and other alloy steel. The chart breaks down the imports by country and lists the value in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC Metal imports from the UK will be exempt under a recent trade deal, as indicated by a press conference in that country. Imports from Canada and Mexico would be exempt from these tariffs if they comply with the USMCA. Not all of these steel imports would be used in automobiles But the chart does illustrate that the US imports iron and steel from many countries that will be covered by the 25% tariffs. The following chart provides a similar breakdown for 2024 general imports of articles of iron and steel under Chapter 72. Figures are in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC The following chart provides the country breakdown for 2024 general imports of aluminium and articles thereof under Chapter 76. Figures are in trillions of dollars. Source: ITC OTHER THREATS TO DOMESTIC AUTO PRODUCTIONTariffs are taxes, and taxes reduce economic growth. Slower GDP growth translates to lower sales and production. ICIS expects that US economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024. Growth in 2026 could be 1.7%. The country has a 34% chance of slipping into a recession in the next 12 months. Many US consumers bought automobiles to avoid paying tariffs. Those purchases made ahead of the tariffs will come at the expense of future sales. US SELF-SUFFICIENT FOR MANY PLASTICS, CHEMS USED IN AUTOSMany of the plastics and chemicals used by the US auto industry are produced in abundance in the country, and that will limit customers' exposure to the nation's tariffs for those products used in automobiles. The US is self-sufficient in polypropylene (PP), polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and polyethylene (PE), a plastic used in packaging and fuel tanks. Nylon is excluded from the tariffs. Polyurethanes, the second most common polymer used in automobiles, are made with methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), and a substantial amount of US MDI imports comes from China. The US also relies on imports of acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), much of which comes from Mexico, South Korea and Taiwan. Additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten, Joseph Chang and Jonathan Lopez Insight article by Al Greenwood (Thumbnail shows automobile. Image by Shutterstock)

15-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Sluggish domestic demand weighed on Japan’s petrochemical industry, resulting in reduced production volumes in 2024 compared with previous years, according to the Japan Petrochemical Industry Association (JPCA). 2024 ethylene output falls 6.3% Production of five major plastics shrink by 5% Japan economy forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2025 “Although some crackers in Southeast Asia and East Asia are reducing production, there are plans for capacity increases in crackers that significantly exceed demand in China,” JPCA said in a report prepared for the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025. The conference is being held in Bangkok, Thailand from 15-16 May. Operating rates of crackers in Japan are expected to remain lowered, as with previous years, JPCA said. Japan's ethylene production in 2024 fell 6.3% year on year to 4.99 million tonnes, as domestic crackers have operated at below 90% of capacity since August 2022, with the monthly average run rate falling below 80% five times in 2024. Japan’s real GDP growth rate in 2024 was 0.1% amid weak exports, neutral growth in private consumption, and a slight increase in government consumption. For the whole of 2024, the country’s total production of five major plastics – namely, linear density polyethylene (PE), high density PE (HDPE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – declined to 5.7 million tonnes, lower by 5.2% from 2023. Production (in thousand tonnes) Product 2024 2023 % change Ethylene 4,989 5,324 -6.3 LDPE 1,160 1,219 -4.8 HDPE 656 665 -1.4 PP 1,935 2,075 -6.8 PS 549 564 -2.7 PVC 1,406 1,496 -6.0 Styrene monomer (SM) 1,297 1,428 -9.2 Ethylene glycol (EG) 276 264 4.6 Acrylonitrile (ACN) 303 341 -11.2 Sources: METI, Japan Styrene Industry Association (PS, SM) and Vinyl Environmental Council (PVC) Domestic demand as ethylene equivalent in 2024  inched up by 1.4% to 3.92 million tonnes, according to JPCA data. While the global economy is expected to grow steadily in 2025, there is a risk of deterioration in the global economy and a corresponding decline in demand due to geopolitical issues, JPCA said, citing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, as well as the tariff policy of the US Trump administration. The latter has caused costs of raw material prices to soar, JPCA said. Meanwhile, Japan's real GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to accelerate to 1.2%, supported by increased exports, sustained growth in personal consumption, and increases in capital investment, said JPCA. Higher wage hikes in 2025 should help boost domestic consumption, it said. In the report, JPCA called on the petrochemical industry to adopt new roles and responsibilities in achieving carbon neutrality and advancing a recycling-oriented society. The report outlined a two-stage timeline: first, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from existing facilities by immediately deploying currently available technologies; and second, to establish sustainable development goals by gradually introducing new technologies into society. “Not only corporate efforts but … collaboration and system design throughout the supply chain are required,” JPCA said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee

15-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–External factors continue to pressure Thailand’s petrochemical industry, driven by new capacity additions from low-cost producers, particularly those in the Middle East, according to a report by the Federation of Thai Industries, Petrochemical Industry Club (FTIPC). Global PE, PP, PX oversupply weigh on Thai industry Trade tensions threaten Thailand export growth Proposed US tariff hikes could disrupt supply chains Despite these obstacles, the industry is on a gradual recovery path, driven by increasing demand in key sectors such as food packaging, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, the FTIPC said in a report released for the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025. The two-day conference in Bangkok, Thailand, ends on 16 May. However, domestic consumption remains under pressure due to high household debt levels, which could impact the demand for durable goods and related petrochemical products. Here is a summary of the FTIPC’s outlook for petrochemical products produced in Thailand this year: Southeast Asia's second-largest economy expanded in 2024 by 2.5%, accelerating from the 2.0% growth in 2023. Household consumption growth over the period slowed to 4.4% from 6.9% in 2023. The Bank of Thailand in March said that it expects Thailand's economy to grow just above 2.5% in 2025, falling short of earlier projections, as high household debt and structural challenges in manufacturing continue to hinder an uneven recovery. While signs of recovery are evident, the industry still grapples with significant challenges, particularly global oversupply in polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and paraxylene (PX), the FTIPC said. “This oversupply continues to strain profit margins,” it said. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and economic slowdowns in major export markets such as China and Europe pose further risks to growth. Thailand is currently facing a 36% tariff on its exports to the US, with a temporary pause on these tariffs set to expire in July. “The United States has raised concerns among Thai industries, particularly those heavily dependent on exports, by proposing tariff increases,” FIPTC said. “If implemented, these tariff hikes could disrupt supply chains, elevate production costs, and pose significant challenges for Thai exporters,” it added. “Higher import duties may reduce competitiveness and profitability, forcing businesses to reassess their market strategies and cost structures,” it said. Looking ahead, Thailand’s petrochemical sector must navigate a volatile global market while capitalizing on domestic demand growth. Strategic investments in feedstock diversification, sustainability, and advanced manufacturing are crucial for the sector’s success. “To remain competitive, industry leaders will need to focus on cost optimization, innovation, and regional collaboration to strengthen their market position and drive long-term growth,” the FTIPC said. Furthermore, Thailand’s PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) is set to become the country’s first chemical producer to integrate US-imported ethane as an alternative feedstock. Under the agreement, PTTGC will secure an annual supply of 400,000 tons of ethane to meet growing market demand in a highly competitive environment. The company expects to begin receiving imported ethane in 2029. PTTGC has entered into long-term agreements with key partners, including Very Large Ethane Carriers (VLECs) service agreements with parent firm PTT Public Co (PTT) and Malaysia’s liquefied gas transportation firm MISC. Additionally, PTTGC has signed a long-term terminal service agreement with Thai Tank Terminal C (TTT) to facilitate the delivery and storage of ethane at the Map Ta Phut Terminal in Rayong. Meanwhile, the Thai plastics industry is facing growing competition from finished goods imported from China and competitive supplies from the Middle East. This influx of lower-cost products is intensifying market pressure, potentially affecting domestic manufacturers in Thailand. Moreover, China's oversupply across sectors like EVs, electronics, and plastics has impacted manufacturing in Southeast Asia, including Thailand. Thailand’s overall polymer consumption has seen a slight increase last year. However, Thai converters are facing significant challenges from geopolitical uncertainties, a global economic slowdown, and high inflation rates, exacerbated by a rise in major polymer imports from China and the Middle East. Insight article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: At the Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Zone, located at the east coast of Thailand on 29 December 2021. (Xinhua/Shutterstock)

15-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japanese automaker Nissan Motor Corp announced on Tuesday a slate of new cost-saving measures, including job cuts of 11,000, after swinging to a net loss of yen (Y) 670.9 billion ($4.5 billion) in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2025. in Japanese yen (Y) billion 1 April 2024-31 March 2025 (FY 2024) 1 April 2023-31 March 2024 (FY 2023) % Change Net Revenue 12,633.20 12,685.70 -0.4 Operating Profit 69.8 568.7 -87.7 Net Income -670.9 426.6 Global sales stood at 3.346 million units, impacted by intensified sales competition. The latest results come after the collapse of multi-billion-dollar merger talks with rival Honda in February 2025 and follows a November 2024 announcement of 9,000 job cuts. The latest reductions will bring the total job losses at Japan's third-largest carmaker to around 20,000 in the last fiscal year. Nissan also plans to streamline its production by reducing its global plant count from 17 to 10 by 2027. Petrochemicals make up roughly a third of an average vehicle's raw material costs. The automotive industry is a crucial driver of demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), nylon, polystyrene (PS), and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR). Nissan said that it expects business to "continue be challenging with intense competition, forex and inflationary pressure". "Yet, our efforts related [to] U.S. Tariff policy under our mitigation strategy, we are prioritizing US-built products, optimizing local capacity, reallocating tariff-exposed production, and working closely with suppliers to localize and adapt swiftly to market demands," the company said. "Given the uncertainty related to tariff environment, the guidance for operating profit, net income and auto free cash flow for the fiscal year are currently to be determined," it added. ($1 = Y147.9)

13-May-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem swung to a net profit in the first quarter, year on year, but sales and earnings fell slightly as the global petrochemicals downturn continues, management at the Brazilian polymers major said on Monday. Speaking to reporters from Sao Paulo, the company’s CEO and CFO described the operating environment as persistently challenging on the back of excess capacity and emerging international trade conflicts. The company’s net profit stood in Q1 at $113 million, up from a net loss of $273 million in the same quarter of 2024, while recurring earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) stood 2% lower, however, at $224 million. Braskem produces mostly polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), some of the most widely used polymers and which remain under intense pressure due to global overcapacities. Braskem (in $ million) Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Change Q4 2024 Q1 2025 vs Q4 2024 Sales 3,331 3,618 -8% 3,285 1% Net profit/loss 113 -273 N/A -967 N/A Recurring EBITDA 224 230 -2% 102 121% Brazilian operations achieved 74% utilization rates, up 4% from the previous quarter, while US and European facilities operated at 80% capacity, a 13% improvement, and Mexican operations reached 79% utilization (up 2%). The improved performance was primarily driven by better spreads and increased sales volumes, particularly in Brazil, Europe and the US. CHINA PP COMPETITION: ADDs?Much of the earnings call with reporters on Monday focused on the global trade tensions and competition from Chinese producers, particularly in the Brazilian market. "The question of tariffs generated much instability and many doubts in this first quarter," said CEO Roberto Ramos, who noted how negotiations over the weekend between China and the US in Switzerland could potentially alter the tariffs war. "This discussion between the two countries should move toward some kind of normality. Therefore, I think when all is said and done, after all this commotion, very little will remain,” he said. He highlighted a few aspects which have affected petrochemicals in the trade war so far, such as China's decision not to impose retaliatory tariffs on US natural gas-based ethane imports, which he said stand at approximately 18 million tonnes annually. That was a positive, he said, because ethane from the US to China would continue uninterrupted, preventing a scenario where excess ethane in the US would have driven down prices and potentially created advantages for ethane-based producers. Braskem operates most of its plants in Brazil on crude-derived naphtha. However, Chinese authorities did maintain tariffs on propane imports from the US, which affects Chinese PP producers and that did affect Braskem, said the CEO. “China has a surplus in PP, so it is a net exporter, and the main destination of this excess PP production has been precisely Brazil, which has greatly affected us here in the Brazilian market,” said Ramos. "They wanted to become self-sufficient regarding both resins [PP and PE], had a project to become self-sufficient in PP by 2030, but achieved this much earlier, by 2024. Therefore, as there isn't enough consumption for the resin, they're forced to sell, and they sell here at a price we can't compete with." In response to this competitive pressure, Ramos confirmed Braskem is actively pursuing trade remedies in talks with the authorities, which could, among others, include instruments like antidumping duties (ADDs) against China but also against the US, also a big producer with excess product in some materials. "Yes, we are studying trade protection measures in relation to China, as, moreover, we are also doing in relation to US PE producers, who also place resin here at a lower price than they sell in their respective countries," he said. Management said they continue to pursue the "switch to gas" strategy, which involves systematically reducing dependence on naphtha as feedstock, particularly in Brazilian operations, in favor of more competitive ethane-based production. Despite recent decreases in oil prices and consequently naphtha prices, executives said the price differential between naphtha and ethane remains substantial at approximately $350-370/tonne, sometimes even higher. RECOVERY STILL WAITINGAlthough some of Braskem’s margin spreads posted improvements during Q1, the CEO was not too optimistic about a strong recovery anytime soon. “I do not imagine that spreads will recover further in the short term, because there is still an excess supply of ethylene but also of propylene, and therefore the plants are operating at lower capacity. Apart from the US producers who are processing at over 90% of their capacity utilization, we here have around 70%, and the Europeans have even less than that,” said the CEO. “As long as this excess installed capacity still exists, as long as the pace of construction of new plants in the US and China continues, there is no reason to imagine that spreads will react, because the supply and demand situation continues to be an excess of supply in relation to demand. “If you have an excess installed capacity of 30 million tonnes of ethylene, for example, therefore of PE, and if the market increases its consumption volume by 5 million tonnes per year, you will need at least six years to be able to clear this excess supply. Therefore, there is no structural reason to think about an increase in spreads."

12-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Freight rates from China to the US are likely to rise in the near term now that a 90-day pause on extreme tariffs has been negotiated, but in the longer term, it is likely rates will continue the downward trend seen prior to the “Liberation Day” announcement, according to shipping industry analysts. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said politicians on all sides will argue over who has won, who has lost and who has the better deal, but the most important point is that we will now see goods flowing more easily between the world’s biggest trading nations. “The spiraling trade war was catastrophic for businesses, so there will be huge relief that diplomacy appears to be returning,” Sand said. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said rates will rise, but not explode. “The volume rebound will probably signal the start of an early peak season that will keep rates elevated – but we might not see last year’s $8,000+/FEU highs due to a more competitive, well-supplied carrier landscape already keeping rates lower year on year," Levine said. Levine said he expects tighter capacity as carriers work to reposition vessels and reduce the number of blank sailings that were used to support rates during the height of the tariff war. Sand agreed, noting that carriers responded to falling volumes from China to the US by slashing container shipping capacity and redeploying it onto other trades, such as the Asia to Europe route. “It takes time to shift capacity back again, so a revival in volumes from China to US may mean shippers have to pay a little over the odds in the short term,” Sand said. Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, said to expect an immediate surge of cargo from China to the US, based on two reasons: first, there is already a large amount of cargo ready to go, as US importers have been adopting a "wait-and-see" strategy over the past month and abstained from shipping cargo which is already ready. Second, the 90-day pause expires in the middle of the usual peak season for holiday-related goods going to the US. “We should therefore expect a possible pull-forward of cargo creating a shorter, sharper, peak season from basically right now,” Jensen said. US ports were already beginning to see fewer vessels arriving or scheduling arrivals because of the trade war, but Jensen said the 90-day pause could lead to a swift change. “With the expected surge in cargo, we should also expect that the US ports which are right now facing a massive drop in cargo volume will switch to face a surge of cargo with a substantial risk of bottleneck issues and delays as a consequence,” Jensen said. Average spot rates are down by 56% and 48% from China to the US West Coast and US East Coast, respectively, since 1 January, despite an uptick of 18% and 12% on 1 April, according to Xeneta data. Rates have fallen slightly since then but remain elevated compared with the end of March. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

12-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers were stable to higher this week as carriers have reduced capacity by 4-5% along the trade route amid efforts to stop the slide in prices, but capacity could surge and put downward pressure on rates if the Red Sea ceasefire holds. On 6 May, US president Donald Trump announced that a peace deal had been struck between the US and Houthi rebels, which would bring attacks against shipping to an end in the Red Sea. Since the start of 2024, traffic through the Suez Canal has collapsed and remains at roughly half pre-Gaza conflict levels. CONTAINER RATES Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos were flat week on week, and supply chain advisors Drewry showed a 4% increase in rates from Shanghai to New York and a 5% increase from Shanghai to Los Angeles, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects rates to be less volatile in the coming week as carriers are reorganizing their capacity to reflect a lower volume of cargo bookings from China. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said many US importers have paused orders out of China, but shippers (as well as manufacturers) can hold out only so long before consumers will start to see empty shelves or higher prices. Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to see its first year-on-year decline in over a year and a half this month as the effect of tariffs increases, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates as shown in the following chart. Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence, said carriers have reduced capacity by 4-5% in April and May on the transpacific trade lane. “When we look across what was deployed in April and what is scheduled for May combined, blanked capacity accounts for 19% of the total Asia to North America West Coast (NAWC) planned capacity, and 17% of the total Asia to North America East Coast (NAEC) planned capacity, across those two months,” Murphy said. “But a high level of blank sailings does not automatically translate into a large reduction of capacity year on year, if the originally planned level of capacity, without blank sailings, constituted a large increase in capacity deployment on a year-on-year basis,” Murphy said. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are seeing fewer arrivals than normal. “For example, only 22 arrived the first five days of May, whereas 28.5 arrivals would be normal,” Louttit said. “Only nine are scheduled to arrive in the next three days, whereas 17 in three days would be normal.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES UNCHANGED US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady this week with rates remaining unchanged week on week despite continuing to see downward pressure for several trade lanes. For yet another week, there is downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as charterers are still in wait-and-see mode. Besides contract of affreightment (COA) cargoes, there is very little seen in the market. The tariffs and uncertainty continue to dampen the spot market, pressuring rates. As a result, owners are sending fewer vessels and therefore keeping rates stable for now due to the lack of available tonnage. Similarly, rates from the USG to ARA and all other trade lanes also held steady. Although COA volumes are lower there are also fewer spot inquiries available. Despite the lack of interest, rates remain unchanged as the clean petroleum products (CPP) market continues to remain soft leaving those vessels to participate in the chemical sector and pressuring chemical rates lower. However, several cargoes of styrene, methanol and caustic soda continue to be seen in the market. From the USG to Brazil, this trade lane had seen more inquiries, but there is plenty of available space for the balance of May lending downward pressure to spot rates. This is leaving most owners still trying to fill up prompt partial space to WCSAM and to ECSAM for 2H May. Rates are soft and have lost some ground. During the past week large parcels of MEG and caustic soda were seen in the market and as well as a CPP cargo further demonstrating the length in the market and weighing down on rates. Along the USG to India route the spot market is stable and with its usual slow pace. No new cargoes have been heard from the US. With additional reporting by Will Beacham and Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

09-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. China is in the process of drafting its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) in a geopolitical and economic environment that suggests the need for greater self-reliance. It might be fair to assume this will include a continued push toward petrochemical self-sufficiency. But China is to cap refinery capacity from 2027 onwards due to the rise of electric vehicles. This reduced need for gasoline could mean not enough new naphtha, LPG or other refinery feedstocks to support further petrochemical plant construction. China might instead import more feedstocks from the Middle East or continue to repurpose existing refineries to make more petrochemical feedstock. This is already the direction of travel through Saudi Aramco investments in China. Add rumours of coal-to-chemicals rationalisation and closures of older plants, and the picture gets even murkier. Conflicting reports say either China is slowing petrochemical construction following the trade war —or pressing ahead and raising operating rates to the mid-80% range (up from high-70s post-Evergrande Turning Point). Demand is another major variable. Growth was already slowing before the trade war and could now turn negative in 2025. A document from China Customs (25 April) pointed to possible waivers for US polyethylene and ethane imports—but not for ethylene glycol or propane. Nearly 60% of China’s propane imports came from the US in 2024. With a 125% tariff still in place, China would be unable to replace those volumes quickly, putting PDH propylene production under pressure. This matters: 32% of China’s propylene capacity is now PDH-based, and 70% of propylene is used to make PP. ICIS expects PDH operating rates to fall to below 59% in 2025 (from 70% in 2024). Could this mean a propylene shortage? Not necessarily. Output from crackers, refineries and coal could increase—especially if, as one Middle East source suggests, China pursues greater PP self-sufficiency. Taking into account all these variables, and the extent to which China can export PP based on the level of trade tensions, consider these scenarios for China’s PP net imports in 2025–2028: The ICIS Base Case: They average 3m tonnes/year. Alternative 1: 600,000 tonnes/year with some years of net exports Alternative 2: 1.4m tonnes/year, with again some years of net exports My gut feel is that China will do its best to boost petrochemicals self-sufficiency. But you cannot take my always fallible words as the final words. You must extend and deepen your scenario planning in this ever-murkier environment. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

06-May-2025