Polypropylene (PP)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Newly announced port fees by the US Trade Representative (USTR) are less substantial than the proposal from February, but a shipping analyst expects vessel supply to decrease and rates to climb on certain routes. Theodor Gerrard-Anderson, chemical freight analyst at Lighthouse Chartering, said that most bulk liquid shipowners will not be affected by the USTR’s final plan for port fees on China-linked vessels, but major Chinese operators will see impacts from Annex I. And despite exemptions in Annex II, Gerrard-Anderson anticipates tighter vessel supply and higher rates for vessels transiting the US Gulf. Annexes I and II from the USTR’s final plan are the applicable sections for the bulk liquid transportation market. The effects from Annex I, which focuses on service fees on Chinese vessel operators and vessel owners of China, will be impacted as many of these owners have established a meaningful presence in the US market and maintain large contract of affreightment (COA) portfolios for trading specialty chems and bulk liquid cargoes, Gerrard-Anderson said. Annex II, which essentially impacts the rest of the bulk liquid transportation market, includes exemptions for tankers less than 80,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT) even if they are built in China, and for ships on short sea trades of less than 2,000 nautical miles. Special purpose-built vessels for the transport of chemical substances in bulk liquid forms will not be charged. Another exemption, designed to help maintain US exports, is that ships arriving ballast will not be charged to ensure tonnage is available for export. Analysts at shipping broker NETCO said that most vessels in their segment are exempt under Annex II. On the container shipping side, the softening of the fee structure reduces the risk of severe port congestion and could ease overall upward pressure on freight rates, according to an analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta. Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta senior shipping analyst, said it is significant that the final proposal has fees levied on a net tonnage basis per US voyage, rather than cumulative fees for every port the ship calls at. "We must look carefully at the potential impact of the revised port fees, but changes will be welcomed by the ocean container shipping industry given the significant criticism levelled at the initial proposal during the public hearing,” Stausbøll said. “The fact fees will not be imposed on every port call is particularly important because it lowers the risk of congestion had carriers decided to cut the number of calls on each service into the US,” Stausbøll said. “This port congestion had the potential to cause severe disruption and upward pressure on freight rates.” Stausbøll said costs could still be very high for Chinese carriers and carriers operating Chinese-built vessels – particularly for ships with the largest capacity. "The latest announcement should still be viewed in the context of the original proposal, which offered dire consequences,” Stausbøll said. “The situation has changed for the better, but it isn't a great victory for the ocean container shipping industry because these fees still add further pressure at a time when businesses are already trying to navigate the spiraling tariffs announced by the Trump Administration." Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.

18-Apr-2025

TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada will continue resorting to retaliatory tariffs against the US – regardless of which party, the incumbent Liberals or the opposition Conservatives, wins the upcoming 28 April federal election. In an election debate on Thursday evening, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives, both said that retaliatory tariffs were necessary to deter the US tariff threat. However, Carney said that Canada could not impose full-scale “dollar-for-dollar” counter-tariffs, given that the US economy is more than 10 times larger than Canada’s economy. Rather, the Liberals would aim at counter-tariffs that have maximum impact on the US, but only minimum impact on Canada. In opinion polls about the elections, the Liberals are currently on track for their fourth consecutive victory since 2015. Carney took over from former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on 14 March. AUTO EXEMPTION Carney also confirmed that the government will be granting exemptions to its 25% retaliatory tariffs on US autos that took effect on 9 April. The exemptions will apply to automakers that maintain production and investments in Canada, he said. According to information on the website of Canada’s finance ministry, a “performance-based remission framework” would allow automakers that continue to manufacture vehicles in Canada to import “a certain number” of US-assembled, USMCA-compliant vehicles into Canada, free of retaliatory tariffs. The number of tariff-free vehicles a company is permitted to import would be reduced if there are reductions in the automakers’ Canadian production or investments, according to the ministry. The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals that contributes more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle. The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). Please also visit the ICIS topic pages:Automotive: Impact on chemicals, and US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo of Stellantis' Canadian auto assembly plant at Windsor, Ontario, where production was suspended because of tariff uncertainties (photo source: Stellantis)

18-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US “reciprocal” tariffs are prompting a shift of trade flows and supply chains as market players in Asia seek alternative export outlets for some chemicals, while overall demand remains tepid amid growing fears of a global recession. US-China trade war 2.0 keeps market players on edge Regional traders wary amid US’ 90-day tariff suspension SE Asia prepares for US trade talks as China president visits Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia Trades across the equities and commodities markets last week have been highly volatile since the start of April in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, the highest of which was imposed on China. The higher-than-expected tariffs sparked concerns over a possible global recession that sent crude prices slumping last week, dragging down downstream aromatics products such as benzene and toluene. Trump had raised the reciprocal tariffs for China three times in as many days – from 34%, to 84% and to 125% on 9-11 April – with China responding in kind. Including the combined 20% tariffs imposed in the past two months, the US’ effective additional tariffs for China stand at 145%. In the polyethylene (PE) market, prices are softening as US-bound export orders shrink, while polypropylene (PP) exports from China to southeast Asia look set to decline. Most polyolefin players in Asia and beyond are currently attending the 37th International Exhibition on Plastics and Rubber Industries (Chinaplas) in Shenzhen, China, which will run up to 18 April. Some China-based market players said the event could provide them an opportunity to explore alternative markets by deepening their relationships with buyers in southeast Asia. Exports of chemicals and plastics used in automobiles to the US, meanwhile, are likely to shrink as well amid auto tariffs from the world’s biggest economy. Apart from PP, exports nylon, butadiene (BD), and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) to the US are expected to decline. Trump, on 14 April, said he is considering possible exemptions to his 25% tariffs on imported automobiles and parts. His tariffs on all car imports took effect on 3 April, while those on automotive parts will take place no later than 3 May. The automotive sector is a major downstream industry for petrochemicals. China’s PE imports from the US spiked in early 2025 but this is expected to reverse sharply because of the trade war between the two countries. However, China has a substantial number of naphtha and coal-based PE plants starting up in 2025 with a combined PE capacity of more than 8 million tonnes, which should reduce the country’s dependence on imports. The US will also need to redirect surplus PE to alternative markets amid dwindling Chinese demand. Market players expect demand in the second quarter to be worse than the first three months of 2025 amid hefty US reciprocal tariffs hanging over countries in Asia when Trump’s three-month pause lapses. Implementation of the US’ reciprocal tariffs were suspended on 9 April, for 90 days, providing some reprieve to about 60 countries, except China. Freight rates between China and the US have already decreased due to the trade war as demand evaporates. However, vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) prices in India are bucking the general downtrend and have firmed up as the chemical is not directly subjected to US tariffs. VAM is primarily used in the production of adhesives, textiles, paints and coatings. SE ASIA PREPARE TRADE TALKS The 10-member ASEAN group pledged that they will not impose retaliatory tariffs on the US following an emergency meeting, opting to negotiate with the US. Among the nations scheduled for talks with the US are Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia – all of which were slapped with high tariffs of up to 46%. Thailand intends to scrutinize imports more thoroughly to prevent cheap imports from China entering the country, as the US has warned against such “third-country” methods of evading tariffs. Anti-dumping duties are also being considered by Malaysia and Indonesia against China to counter an expected rise in cheap imports to their countries. Trade flows are still expected to change as China steps up talks and partnerships with the EU, as well as with southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Vietnam and Cambodia. While several Asian nations are lining up for discussions with the US government, China and the US have yet to schedule a meeting, heightening concerns of economic headwinds in the coming year. Singapore has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to between 0-2% on account of the US-China trade war, and other countries are expected to follow suit. Before the pause on reciprocal tariffs, the World Trade Organization (WTO) had forecast trade growth to contract by 1.0% in 2025, from 3.0% previously. Meanwhile, China President Xi Jinping is currently in southeast Asia – with state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia – up to 18 April, to forge stronger economic ties with its Asian neighbors amid an escalating trade war with the US. China posted an annualized Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, unchanged form the previous quarter, while there is a consensus that the Asian economic giant would weaken from Q2 onward. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Additional reporting by Samuel Wong, Izham Ahamd, Jackie Wong, Hwee Hwee Tan, Joanne Wang, Lucy Shuai, Jonathan Chou, Angeline Soh, Melanie Wee, Shannen Ng and Josh Quah

16-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Container throughput from China’s main ports fell by 6.1% over the past week and cargo bookings over the next three weeks are projected to be down by 30-60% in China and by 10-20% in the rest of Asia as the trade war intensifies. Market intelligence group Linerlytica said the Labor Day holiday in China will further dampen cargo demand in May which could force carriers to cancel additional sailings over the coming weeks to slow the decline in cargo rates. US President Donald Trump initiated the trade war by imposing tariffs with the goal of strengthening supply chains and bringing back domestic manufacturing that has increasingly moved overseas. Lars Jensen, president of consulting firm Vespucci Maritime, noted a survey from television news channel CNBC that showed the effort may be futile. According to the survey, most respondents said bringing back supply chains could double the costs, leading most to instead search for new sources of material from low-tariff countries. More than half of respondents said the main impediment to reshoring is high costs, while 21% said finding skilled labor was the top reason. Instead of moving supply chains back to the United States, 61% of respondents said it would be more cost-effective to relocate supply chains to lower-tariffed countries. ASIA-US CONTAINER RATES Average rates rose last week, reversing the trend that saw prices for shipping containers fall steadily from July 2024. Linerlytica said that three transpacific services have been withdrawn this year, with the MSC Mustang and Premier Alliance PN4 both withdrawn even before they were launched while TS Line’s AWC2 deployed small 1,700 TEU (20-foot equivalent unit) ships on irregular schedules. “These tentative capacity cuts have done little to restore market balance with further turbulence ahead,” Linerlytica said. Linerlytica said that recent tariff concessions are likely insufficient to restore transpacific volumes with about 30-40% of transpacific container imports still effectively halted by the tariffs that remain in place. The trade war is principally affecting carriers with the largest exposure to Chinese transpacific exports to the US, with Hede (100%), Matson (90%), SeaLead (82%), TS Lines (80%) and COSCO (71%) being most at risk from the immediate fallout. The following chart shows transpacific liftings by carrier for this year. Meanwhile, US container imports surged over the first three months of the year as retailers pulled forward volumes to get ahead of the tariffs. But the Global Port Tracker from the NRF and Hackett Associates is predicting import cargo at the nation’s major container ports to drop dramatically beginning next month, as shown in the following chart. “Imports during the second half of 2025 are now expected to be down at least 20% year over year,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, that could bring total 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.

15-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The tariffs imposed by the US and the uncertainty of what will follow has caused a crash in oil prices and is one of the main factors behind a global decline in chemical prices in the days after the country's April announcement of its reciprocal tariffs. The following chart shows the sharp declines among the seven building-block chemicals. Notably, the declines continued even after the US paused the implementation of the higher reciprocal tariffs and settled for the relatively lower 10% rate against most countries. The exception is China, which has been responding to US tariffs with matching rates. The two countries are now imposing triple-digit tariffs on each others' imports. While the US has made exceptions for critical minerals, pharmaceuticals and electronics, China has made none. China's tariffs include the large amounts of natural gas liquids (NGLs) that it imports as feedstock for its propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units and its ethane crackers. LOWER OIL PRICESPrices for plastics and petrochemicals tend to rise and fall with those for oil. Oil prices have been falling since the start of the year, but the decline accelerated rapidly following the April tariff announcements by the US, as shown in the following table. Figures are in dollars per barrel. 2-Jan 1-Apr 14-Apr Brent 75.93 74.49 64.88 WTI 73.13 71.20 61.53 The decline was remarkable because it happened despite the weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index has fallen by 8% as of 14 April since the start of the year. Oil prices tend to rise when the dollar weakens. This relationship has broken down in part because of plans by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) to increase May production by an amount much higher than anticipated. But another reason is lower demand. Following the reciprocal tariff announcement by the US, ICIS lowered its forecast for global oil demand by 10%. ICIS also lowered its forecast for Brent oil prices for the rest of the year. Lower oil prices are manifesting themselves in aromatics markets, which are closely tied to crude. Export declined month on month for toluene and other aromatics from South Korea to the US for gasoline blending for March loading. Prices of toluene in India tumbled to fresh three-year lows. FALLING CHEM DEMANDDemand for plastics and chemicals also tends to rise and fall with the economy. Economists have started lowering their forecasts for growth, according to a periodic survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal. Survey participants also increased the chances of a recession. Tariffs will act like a sales tax. Companies and consumers will treat the tax like any other – they will take steps to avoid it by purchasing fewer goods. If one applied the US baseline tariff of 10% to the $3.3 trillion of goods the US imported in 2024, that comes to $3.3 billion in taxes. That represents a lot of potential purchases that US companies and consumers could defer or abandon. RPM International, a US producer of coatings, adhesives and sealants, expects that the slow- to no-growth environment of the past 18 months will persist. RPM's comments are notable because they were made on 8 April, after the US announced its reciprocal tariffs. UNCERTAINTYUncertainty is starting to paralyze some key chemical end markets. The auto industry in the US is already showing signs of this, RPM said. In European polyethylene (PE) markets, buyers are retreating to the side lines rather than committing to volumes in the current climate. “All in all, people are being careful, and that's not just converters that also consumers. People are worried about the future, and it's probably affecting demand further down chain as well," said ICIS markets editor Ben Monroe-Lake. “All in all, people are being careful, and that's not just converters that also consumers. People are worried about the future, and it's probably affecting demand further down chain as well.” REDIRECTED TRADE FLOWSBy imposing such broad tariffs, the US has erected a formidable trade barrier around its economy, which has caused exporters to redirect their shipments to other markets. This is especially true of Chinese exports. The US has created an effective embargo of Chinese imports by increasing its tariffs by 145% in 2025. Even with the recent exemptions adopted by the US, a large portion of Chinese imports will need to find new markets. The following table shows 2024 US general imports from China. Figures are in US dollars. Chapter Description Value 29 Organic chemicals 8,519,224,570 39 Plastics and plastic products 19,290,918,758 All Chapters Total 438,947,386,145 Source: US International Trade Commission (ITC) Similarly, China's 125% tariffs on shipments from the US would cause a large amount of products to be redirected, as shown in the following table. Figures are in US dollars. Chapter Description Value 27 Coal; mineral fuels, oils and products 14,727,138,106 29 Organic chemicals 3,980,594,815 39 Plastics and plastic products 7,452,840,887 All Chapters Total 143,545,739,507 Source: US ITC Given the tariff rates, it's likely that direct trade between the US and China will crater, said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China, at ING. Re-arranging global trade flows on such a scale will affect local chemical markets directly and indirectly through the influx of end products made with plastics and chemicals. The world was already contending with an oversupply of chemicals. This will aggravate it Such concerns have already appeared in east Chinese markets for certain grades of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and high density polyethylene (HDPE), which reached multi-year lows. Market players are worried that US tariffs will cause a decline in demand for Chinese products that use these plastic grades. Similar concerns are arising in the Middle East among buyers and sellers of polymeric methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (PMDI) US auto tariffs could cause producers in the rest of the world to reduce output of vehicles and parts. These auto tariffs are global, and they are separate from the reciprocal tariffs. As such, the US auto tariffs are still in effect. If auto producers lower output, that will reduce demand for plastics and chemicals used in auto production, such as polypropylene (PP), nylon, butadiene (BD), and styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) “I may have to tweak my operations if I lose access to the US market, and if so, certainly I would be prudent now not to overcommit on forward deliveries of raw materials including EPDM,” said an auto parts maker in southeast Asia. Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer (EPDM) refers to a synthetic rubber. DEFLATIONARY SPIRALIf companies expect declines to continue, then they may postpone purchases, setting off a deflationary spiral, in which sellers lower prices each time buyers defer purchases. Such a dynamic could emerge in European ethylene market and its PP market. US TARIFFS COULD MAKE THE COUNTRY THE EXCEPTIONAlthough US prices for building blocks have fallen since the April tariff announcement, many have still raised their expectations for inflation. RPM said on 8 April that the tariffs announced at that time would raise its raw material costs for its US operations by 4.3%. RPM's forecast did not take into account the 90-day pause on tariffs that the US announced on 9 April. That said, others are expecting prices in general to increase. Seasonally adjusted, a net 30% of US small business owners planned price hikes in March, up one point from February and the highest reading since March 2024. CHINA'S NGL TARIFFS MAY CREATE US GLUTChina's tariffs of 125% do not carve out any exemptions for ethane, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or other natural gas liquids (NGLs). China imports large amounts of these feedstocks from the US If China maintains the tariffs on NGLs, it could cause a supply glut of these primary chemical feedstocks in the US. The country does not have the chemical capacity to absorb the shipments that would normally go to China, and it is unlikely that the rest of the world can fully offset the loss of China as an export destination. If China maintains its tariffs on US NGLs, ICIS expects that US ethane and propane prices will decline. Insight article by Al Greenwood Additional reporting by Vicky Ellis, Ajay Parmar, Nurluqman Suratman, Isaac Tan, Nel Weddle, Melanie Wee, Kojo Orgle and Jonathan Yee Infographics by Yashas Mudumbai (Thumbnail shows a flask, which commonly holds chemicals. Image by Fotohunter.)

15-Apr-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–US import tariffs on China and other Asian countries are increasing fears in Chile that even higher amounts of imports will dent domestic plastics and wider manufacturing producers’ competitiveness, according to the CEO at the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. ‘Tremendously chaotic’ situation sparked by US makes forecasts futile Chile’s economy more ‘dynamic’ than expected, says central bank Potential global slowdown could derail course Asipla’s Magdalena Balcells said to ICIS making forecasts has become difficult due to the “tremendously chaotic” situation regarding US tariffs but said that even with the 90-day pause to tariffs on some Asian countries, the 10% US tariff remaining in place could already impact Chilean producers. Over the weekend, the White House also announced some exemptions for electronic goods, a key demand from US technological majors such as Apple which have important operations in China and elsewhere in Asia. Petrochemicals and plastics producers in Chile and the wider Latin America have been under pressure for years as global oversupply for many products intensified with new capacities coming on stream in the US, Asia and the Middle East. EXACERBATE CHILE COMPETITIVE ISSUES“Even with the current, temporary US 10% import tariff, there are fears that countries subject to that tariff will aim to export to countries without that tariff burden, which will exacerbate Chile’s competitiveness problems with products coming from Asia. Now, products which didn't arrive here may start reaching us with greater force,” said Balcells. “Another issue is what will happen with raw materials that won't be able to reach the US. This is set to cause changes in the market, because China is now a big producer of raw materials. We will have to continue monitoring the effects in what admittedly is a scenario of chaos created by the actions of [US President Donald] Trump. Amid this chaos, it’s very difficult to predict anything.” In a written response to ICIS, Jorge Gaete, head of logistics Chile’s sole producer of polypropylene (PP) Petroquim, said the company does not forecast an impact in its operations “for now” but pointed to a potential wider economic slowdown as a worry. “The US tariffs are a huge issue indeed. The 10% in place can affect some markets such as fruits, wine and pulp, although not copper [Chile’s main export], which is exempt from the 10% tax,” said Gaete. “However, with the fall in global stock markets from Asia to Wall Street, we will be greatly affected as a country, since most of our investments are invested there [in US assets].” ‘SIGNIFICANT RISE IN UNCERTAINTY’Last week, Chile’s central bank said the external outlook had “become more complex, with a significant rise in uncertainty” as geopolitical tensions escalated, and the US imposed its “first set” of tariff measures. The minutes from the last monetary policy committee in March, which voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5%, showed central bankers’ increasing concerns about the external environment potentially hitting the Chilean economy in coming months. This could derail an economy which, the bank said, had been “more dynamic than expected” at the end of 2024 and start of 2025, with final GDP figures for last year putting growth at 2.6%, above the 2.3% projected in December. “Concerns about global growth had increased, especially in that economy [the US], where services inflation also continued to persist. This combination of lower growth and greater inflationary pressures created a complex outlook for the [US central bank the] Federal Reserve,” said the Banco Central de Chile. “The evolution of global financial markets was notable, with patterns markedly different from other episodes of tension. Part of this was because the economic repercussions of the tariff measures were estimated, for now, to be more significant in the US than in other countries. Thus, in the former, doubts about future growth and a preference for safe assets had given way to a stock market decline and a reduction in long-term rates.” External shocks allowing, the bank said Chile’s inflation should converge towards the 3% target in coming quarters, although it remained “elevated”. By the time the committee met in March, the latest annual inflation rate figure available was for February, at 4.7%. However, inflation ticked up to 4.9% in March, according to the Chile’s statistical office INE earlier in April. The latest data available for economic output, covering February and published on 1 April, showed Chile's petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing output rose by 1.7%, compared with February 2024. However, according to the central bank’s reference Monthly Economic Activity Index (Imacec), Chile’s overall economic output fell by 0.1% in February due to a 7.4% fall in mining activity and a major power outage which hit some industrial facilities. Front page picture: City of Valparaiso and its port, one of Chile's largest Picture source: Valparaiso Port Authority  Focus article by Jonathan Lopez

14-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 11 April. UPDATE: Oil, Asia chemical shares extend rout on recession fears By Nurluqman Suratman 07-Apr-25 16:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices tumbled by more than $2/barrel on Monday, with shares of petrochemical firms in the region falling on heightened concerns that a brewing global trade war could lead to an economic recession. Vietnam Q1 GDP growth slows to 6.98% ahead of Trump's tariffs By Jonathan Yee 07-Apr-25 17:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam’s economy expanded by 6.93% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 but looming reciprocal tariffs has dampened its growth outlook for the rest of the year. Asia petrochemical market players pause discussions amid Trump tariff uncertainties By Jonathan Yee 07-Apr-25 16:59 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Market players across petrochemical markets are pausing discussions as they await clarity on the US' ‘reciprocal’ tariff enforcement and potential retaliatory measures from affected countries. Hefty tariffs to slow China’s chemical capacity expansion By Fanny Zhang 07-Apr-25 17:26 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies is expected to exacerbate China’s chemical overcapacity as demand could weaken further, while higher costs stemming from tit-for-tat tariffs would slow down capacity expansion in the country. PODCAST: Impact of US tariffs on aromatics trade flows from Asia By Damini Dabholkar 07-Apr-25 19:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The announcement of import tariffs by the Trump administration is likely to see a shift in aromatics trade flows from Asia, especially given the disparity in tariff rates on different countries. China petrochemical futures extend losses on latest US tariff threats By Fanny Zhang 08-Apr-25 13:01 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s petrochemical futures markets were mostly lower on Tuesday morning, extending their losses from previous session amid worries over an escalating trade war with the US. INSIGHT: China expands carbon market; hydrogen key to decarbonize steel sector By Patricia Tao 08-Apr-25 16:11 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has officially included its steel sector in the national carbon emissions trading system, a major step toward greening one of its most carbon-intensive industries. Asia glycerine supply ample as US-bound exports to decline amid trade war By Helen Yan 08-Apr-25 15:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's glycerine market is facing more supply than expected, with regional suppliers seeking other outlets outside of the US, following the tariffs launched by the US on imports from southeast Asia. INSIGHT: Trade war may affect China PP demand more than supply By Lucy Shuai 08-Apr-25 18:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–With the escalation of the US-China trade war, it is expected that the impact on demand for China's polypropylene (PP) will be greater than on supply. South Korea ups emergency funding support for embattled auto sector By Nurluqman Suratman 09-Apr-25 12:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea on Wednesday announced emergency measures to support its export-reliant automotive industry in response to a 25% US tariff on vehicles and parts which will take effect on 10 April. INSIGHT: Confusion and anxiety hit Asia oleochemicals market amid US tariffs By Helen Yan 09-Apr-25 16:10 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s oleochemicals market is characterized by confusion and anxiety following the steeper-than-expected tariffs launched by the US Trump administration on oleochemicals imports into the US. Asia benzene sinks to lowest daily price in over four years By Angeline Soh 09-Apr-25 19:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia benzene import prices on a free on board (FOB) South Korea basis fell to their daily lowest in more than four years. ICIS China March petrochemical index falls; hefty tariffs to hit demand hard By Yvonne Shi 10-Apr-25 13:54 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index in end-March fell to 1,121.73, down by 3.1% from end-February, with the US-China trade war likely to weigh heavily on overall demand in both the domestic and export markets. INSIGHT: New China PE capacity may cover US supply loss amid trade tensions By Joanne Wang 10-Apr-25 14:16 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s polyethylene (PE) market demand faces significant challenges following the US’ continued imposition of tariffs, with domestic prices of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) down by 4% so far this week on expectations of new capacity coming online. US ethanol exports to Philippines expected to remain duty free; tariff on Brazil increased By Evangeline Chueng 10-Apr-25 17:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–US ethanol exports to the Philippines are expected to remain unaffected by the recent tariff changes, as the country has maintained duty-free access since 2016. INSIGHT: China-US tariffs altering Asia olefins supply and demand balance By Joey Zhou 10-Apr-25 18:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Market dynamics for Asia propylene prices in Q2 2025, originally trending bearish amid long supply from China, are shifting on the back of US tariff policy and its impact. Uncertainty remains the watch-word in this market. Asia petrochemical shares drop as US tariffs on imports from China hit 145% By Jonathan Yee 11-Apr-25 10:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian chemical shares fell on Friday amid deepening concerns over a global trade war after the White House clarified that the US' tariffs on China has risen to 145%. INSIGHT: India anchors PVC future amid global market re-alignment By Aswin Kondapally 11-Apr-25 15:00 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s vinyl industry is entering a new era of accelerated growth and global relevance as it emerges as the single-largest contributor to global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) demand expansion, even as the broader chemical industry faces overcapacity and trade re-alignments.

14-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US reversed direction and edged slightly higher this week as US tariffs went into effect and as capacity tightened. The increases are in line with global average rates, which ticked higher by 3% this week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles rose by 3% and rates from Shanghai to New York rose by 2%, as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects rates to increase in the coming weeks due to tariffs and reduced capacity. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos also rose over the week, with Asia-USWC rates up by 3% and Asia-USEC rates up by 5%. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said many shippers rushed to get cargo loaded in the small window before tariffs went into effect, but noted that there are concerns that the sudden policy changes could also mean delays at US customs for arriving shipments. Levine said he expects to see a drop in demand for containers into the US as shippers wait for the situation to stabilize. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said global maritime supply chains have become more complex amid the trade war between the US and China. “Shippers will be monitoring freight costs across the major and secondary trades,” Sand said. “Japan, for example, is one the key trade partners with the US, so a rush to frontload goods could put upward pressure on spot rates on this trade.” Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES HOLD STEADY US liquid chemical tanker freight rates as assessed by ICIS held steady this week despite downward pressure for several trade lanes. There is downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as charterers are seeking to divert cargoes to other regions. Overall, most market participants continue to struggle with tariff uncertainties and other alternatives. As a result of the limited cargo activity, spot rates appear to be softening. However, methanol requirements from the region remain active to Asia. Similarly, rates from the USG to Rotterdam were steady this week, even as space among the regular carriers remains limited. However, several larger size cargos of caustic soda, methanol, MTBE, ethanol and styrene were seen in the market. Several outsiders have come on berth for both April and May, adding to the available tonnage for completion cargos. Easing demand for clean tankers has attracted those vessels to enter the chemical sector. Contract tonnage continues to prevail, with interest in styrene, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), methanol and ethanol. For the USG to South America trade lane, rates remain steady with a few inquiries for methanol and ethanol widely viewed in the market. Overall, the market was relatively quiet with fewer COA nominations, putting downward pressure on rates as more space has become available. On the bunker side, fuel prices have declined as well, on the back of plummeting energy prices, as a result week over week were softer. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Thumbnail image shows a stack of shipping containers. Image by Shutterstock

11-Apr-2025

NEW YORK (ICIS)–2 April 2025 – dubbed ‘Liberation Day’ by US President Trump – saw a sweeping and substantial salvo of reciprocal tariffs, with a baseline tariff set at 10% but for many countries, much higher customized levels. The higher reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to come into effect on 9 April, with the baseline 10% tariff imposed on 5 April. However, as of 8 April, there is emerging optimism on the potential for trade deals following comments from US President Trump that South Korea and China want to make a deal, and from administration officials that the US is in discussions with a number of countries. The reciprocal tariff levels – which include 34% on China, 20% on the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 32% on Taiwan, 26% on India, 25% on South Korea and 24% on Japan – were very much higher than anticipated. For China, 34% in reciprocal tariffs to come into effect on 9 April would be on top of the previous 20% tariffs the US implemented in February (10%) and March (10%), catapulting additional US tariffs on China this year to 54%. Products that fall under US sectoral tariffs, such as 25% on autos and auto parts, in effect since 5 April, will be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. Products flagged for upcoming sectoral tariffs – pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber and copper – will also be exempt from reciprocal tariffs. For Canada and Mexico, the US 25% tariff will remain in place, but only for non-USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) compliant imports. DIRECT IMPACT ON US CHEMICAL MARKETSTariffs will undoubtedly raise costs for the US chemical industry and its customers, in the form of logistics, feedstocks and components such as additives and catalysts. For certain product chains where the US is self-sufficient, the direct impact should be somewhat limited. For example, Canada is the dominant exporter of chemicals and plastics to the US, but these are primarily in the olefins chain – polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), propylene and ethylene glycol (EG) – where the US is more than self-sufficient and a big net exporter. These should also be USMCA compliant and thus exempt from tariffs. Even if there was a disruption, US producers in the US Gulf Coast could ship more volumes of ethylene and propylene derivatives domestically, replacing imports from Canada – although at higher logistics costs to some locations. The aromatics chain is more complicated. The US is a large net importer of benzene, toluene, xylenes and paraxylene (PX) – the bulk of which comes from South Korea, which is being hit with a 25% reciprocal tariff. The EU also exports aromatics to the US and will be subject to a 20% tariff. The US is a major importer of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) with China and the EU as major suppliers. With 20% in additional tariffs imposed on all China exports in two stages – February (10%) and March (10%) – on top of the existing 25% tariff on China MDI, the US tariff on MDI from China is 45%. Adding the 34% reciprocal tariff brings this to a whopping 79% tariff level by 9 April. US EXPORTS IN CROSSHAIRS FOR RETALIATIONThe bigger risk to the US is for chemical and plastics exports. The US runs a chemical trade surplus of over $30 billion, according to the American Chemistry Council. Already China has announced a 34% tariff on all US imports to go into effect 10 April, while the EU prepares €18 billion in tariffs that would go into effect 15 April. The latter, which is in retaliation for US steel and aluminium tariffs, includes US PE and other polymers and chemicals. Even as the US is a much larger goods importer than exporter, particularly with China, it is the reverse for the US chemical industry, which will bear the brunt of the impact. “US goods exports to China in 2024 were $143.55 billion. The US imports far more – $462.64 billion – but this will have an impact on the US chemical industry as we compete against producers in the Middle East and elsewhere in Asia,” said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. “This is the first large retaliatory challenge. Let’s hope it doesn’t devolve into a swirling beggar-thy-neighbor trade war,” he added. The new China 34% tariff on imports from the US could result in a $34 billion falloff in US exports of all goods to the nation – about a 24% decline, according to an analysis by Swift. Since 2018, the year that the first US-China trade war kicked off by the first Trump administration, US commodity chemical net exports have surged 88% to 2024, and are thus far more exposed to retaliatory tariffs than ever before. During this period, US exports of commodity chemicals and polymers to the world have increased 28% while imports declined 5%, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. Top US chemical and polymers exports are linear low density PE (LLDPE), high density PE (HDPE), EG, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), caustic soda, methanol, low density PE (LDPE), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), polypropylene (PP) and styrene. If China puts an additional 34% import tariff on US PE, the economics for exports do not work, even with the substantial US cost advantage. “With a 34% tariff on top of the current 6.5% tariff, US PE margins go negative at current production costs. US PE demand has been weak so far this year, particularly exports, down 8.1% year on year,” said Harrison Jacoby, director of PE at ICIS. “We see rebalancing of trade – less US PE into China, more to Europe. The industry already saw the start of this trend in 2024, with more US PE shifting from China to Europe. Now we need to see how Europe reacts on 13 April with its proposed retaliation targeting US PE, if they will increase their current 6.5% duty,” he added. In retaliation for US 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports that took effect on 12 March, the EU plans a new round of tariffs on around €18 billion of imports from the US, which includes high density PE (HDPE), linear low density PE (LLDPE) and low density PE (LDPE) along with a range of plastics and rubber products. This would be implemented in mid-April following a consultation period. The US is also a major exporter of PE to Europe. Total US PE exports to China and Europe were 32% of total US PE exports in 2024, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database. “The big picture is there are two low-cost PE regions that are the only net exporters – the US and Canada and the Middle East. These regions will continue to fill global production shortfalls, optimizing to mitigate the impact of tariffs,” said Jacoby. However, demand growth is likely to fall as a trade war will only further weaken demand for all goods and services, he added. Retaliatory tariffs on key US chemical exports could also have ripple effects throughout the chain. For example, retaliatory tariffs on US PE could lower cracker operating rates, in turn reducing crude C4 (CC4) feedstock coming out of those crackers for butadiene (BD) production. “I am concerned about impacts on our suppliers and customers. If there’s an impact on the ethylene industry which causes rate reductions because exports [of derivatives such as PE] get tougher, that would have an indirect effect on our supply of CC4s,” said Ed Dineen, CEO of BD producer TPC Group, in an interview with ICIS at the International Petrochemical Conference (IPC), hosted by the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). HIT TO KEY END MARKETSKey chemical end markets such as housing, automotive and durable goods will be burdened with higher costs with these reciprocal tariffs. Demand in these sectors has already been struggling for more than two years. “The economic law of demand holds that as prices of a good rise, demand for the good will fall,” said Kevin Swift, ICIS senior economist for global chemicals. US sectoral tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium, in effect since March, will add nearly $1,500 to the cost of a light vehicle and result in lower sales for the automotive industry, he estimated. This would push down sales by about 525,000 units if the cost is fully pushed through, said Swift. In addition, 25% sectoral tariffs on autos and auto parts will put further upward pressure on pricing, in turn lowering demand further. The ultimate price impact, and not just for automotive, will also depend on consumer demand. It is likely the higher costs from tariffs will be shared by producers, suppliers and consumers. Housing costs are also poised to rise, with sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminum, and signaled tariffs on lumber and copper, along with reciprocal tariffs that will cover other imported goods such as vinyl floors, furniture, carpets and appliances. Consumer confidence is unlikely to improve anytime soon. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading in March for future expectations plunged 9.6 points, to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March as consumers were concerned about high prices and the impact of tariffs. One silver lining is that other countries may lower their tariffs and trade barriers in response to US reciprocal tariffs, opening markets for US exports and in turn leading to the US lowering its reciprocal tariff levels. WALL STREET CUTS EARNINGS ESTIMATESIn the meantime, Wall Street is making sizeable cuts to US chemical company profit forecasts, with tariffs expected to squeeze margins in the form of higher costs as well as lower demand. “Uncertainty over tariffs has weakened US PE/PP trading volumes and we expect shifts in trade flows to create near-term negative supply chain/production impacts, which could be negative for Q1,” said UBS analyst Joshua Spector in a 7 April research note. “We are lowering estimates and price targets to better reflect a global [slowdown] that spills into 2026 and 2027,” said Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander in a 7 April research note. “While we could easily be proven wrong by a couple of tweets (either escalating further or shifting from dramatic action to symbolism, bluff and rhetoric), we are adjusting our framework to reflect the current state of policy,” said Alexander. THE BIG PICTUREUltimately, US President Trump aims to engineer a “once in a hundred year pendulum shift” in the global economy and geopolitical order, said Rana Foroohar, global business columnist at the Financial Times, at the IPC hosted by the AFPM. “Tariffs are for real. Tariffs are here to stay…Trump sees the global economy as a giant gaming table, with the US consumer market as the biggest chip to put down. And he is going to use it in ways we haven’t seen in half a century, if not more,” said Foroohar. “This imbalance between Wall Street and Main Street – between the asset growth economy and the income-led economy – is really at the heart of what’s going on today…Cheaper is going away [and] place matters,” Foroohar added. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Infographics by Yashas Mudumbai Insight article by Joseph Chang and Yashas Mudumbai

08-Apr-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 4 April. NEWSMexico’s chemicals breathe sigh of relief on US tariffs; Brazil’s industry urges for dialogueMexican chemicals sources were relieved on Thursday to see their country spared from the most punitive US tariff rates, but challenges related to the tariffs on automotive and auto parts remain. Brazil opens antidumping investigation on PET imports from Malaysia and VietnamBrazil’s Department of Trade Defense (DECOM) has launched an investigation into the alleged dumping of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin imports from Malaysia and Vietnam, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. INSIGHT: Brazil’s chems producers lobby to expand protectionism as economic issues growBrazil’s chemicals producers represented by Abiquim have already started lobbying the cabinet to keep “or even expand” the higher tariffs on chemicals products implemented in October, initially for a 12-month period. US should focus on era-defining China vs North America dichotomy – Braskem Idesa execUS import tariffs on Mexico and Canada risk weakening the much-integrated North American trade bloc allowing China to strengthen its formidable rise, according to an executive at Mexico’s polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa. Argentina's economy firmly on the mend but exchange rate concerns cloud outlook – economistArgentina's economy has emerged from "intensive care" but remains in hospital as the country turned from the brink of hyperinflation and default in December 2023 to its current state of fragile stability, according to an economist at Buenos Aires-based consultancy Fundacion Capital. Mexico’s manufacturing slumps on tariffs woes, sentiment plummets amid ‘bleak’ outlookMexico's manufacturing sector deteriorated at its fastest pace since January 2022 as tariff announcements drove sharp declines in sales and production during March, according to S&P Global. Argentina’s chemicals expectant on US tariff deal, IMF bailout as Milei arrives in WashingtonPetrochemicals sources in Argentina were expectant about President Javier Milei’s trip to the US started on Friday and whether he can return home with a deal with Donald Trump’s administration to lower import tariffs on Argentina. PRICING LatAm PP domestic prices fall on lower feedstock costs, cheaper importsDomestic polypropylene (PP) prices fell across Latin American (LatAm) countries on lower feedstock costs and cheaper imports. LatAm PE international prices steady to lower on cheaper US export offersInternational polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady to lower across Latin American (LatAm) countries on the back of cheaper US export offers.

07-Apr-2025