Recycled polyolefins (R-PE, R-PP)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 4 October. INSIGHT: Bold policy moves might not arrest China economic slowdown By Nurluqman Suratman 30-Sep-24 13:51 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In a bold move to revitalize its economy and restore investor confidence, China unveiled a comprehensive package of monetary and fiscal measures less than a week before the country goes on a week-long holiday. Focus: China urea to stay weak on ample supply and low demand By Rita Wang 30-Sep-24 18:14 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's urea market rebounded slightly recently, but the outlook for the spot market remains weak due to high inventories, restricted exports and the upcoming lull season. Asia EDC spot demand likely to taper; regional supply to improve in end-2024 By Jonathan Chou 01-Oct-24 18:15 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's spot EDC demand may be capped in the near term with buyers adequately stocked. Market players are watching out for ripple effects from China’s recent blitz of stimulus measures that may impact conditions for main derivative polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Asia PVC conditions may see limited impact from China stimulus measures By Jonathan Chou 02-Oct-24 13:48 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Some bullishness was observed recently in China’s domestic market, in part due to its government’s stimulus measures. India faces BOPP film overcapacity on start-ups in next two years By Aswin Kondapally 02-Oct-24 22:11 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is facing an oversupply of biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) film, with nine new domestic production lines set to come on stream, which will exert heavy pressure on the market over the next two years. Asia MMA prices see first sharp fall in 2024 on bearish market conditions By Jasmine Khoo 03-Oct-24 10:06 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia methyl methacrylate (MMA) spot import prices were assessed significantly softer in the week ended 27 September, reflecting significant price falls for the first time in 2024. INSIGHT: China Sept small-to-medium factories' output shrinks on poor demand By Jonathan Yee 04-Oct-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Manufacturing output of China’s small to medium enterprises went back to into contraction mode in September, underscoring continued and widespread weakness in the world’s second-biggest economy.

07-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–With the suspension of the strike at US Gulf and East Coast ports until 15 January, carriers are urging customers to use extended gate times being offered by some ports to collect or deliver any urgent containers to terminals. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative agreement on wages late Thursday and will extend the current contract while they continue to negotiate other outstanding issues. Analysts at freight forwarder Flexport said the relatively short duration of the ILA strike means that the impact on the broader US economy has been limited. “If the strike had continued into next week, the ripple effects could have been massive,” Flexport said. “While the broader economic impact has been averted, the strike has made an immediate impact on the ocean and air markets.” The company said that during the strike, bookings to the US East Coast remained open, and they expect them to stay open. The only limitations were rail routings to the East Coast via Los Angeles, but Flexport expects they will soon resume operations as well. “Early reports indicated that each day of the strike would have added five to 10 days of port congestion,” Flexport said. “If you have urgent cargo, routing via the West Coast on rail or transloading in Los Angeles remains your best option to avoid potential congestion on the East Coast.” CONTAINER RATES FALL FURTHER, PACE SLOWS Global average rates for shipping containers fell by 5% this week, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. But rates from east Asia and China to the US fell at a slower rate, as shown in the following chart. Rates to the West Coast fell by 4.23% while rates to the East Coast fell by 1.76%. Drewry was anticipating rates to the US would because of the strike. But with the strike paused, and because peak season demand was largely pulled forward, it is likely that rates will continue to see downward pressure. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID CHEM RATES STABLE TO SOFTER The US chemical tanker market was largely stable week over week, with slight decreases seen from the US Gulf to Asia for smaller parcels. Most market participants were preparing to attend the European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) conference in Berlin, so the market was quiet. According to a ship owner that will be attending the conference, the market is weak across all trade lanes and will remain soft for the short term. The ship owner said that the current trend will not change anytime soon as the heightened tension in the Middle East provides a lot of uncertainty. USG-Asia rates were also pressured lower by the increasing availability of space from outside tonnage entering the market to move larger cargoes. The trade lane is expected to remain weak through November. Rates on the USG/ARA trade lane have been driven largely by a weaker CPP market which allows that available tonnage capable of offering on the chemical market, thus adding to the availability of spot tonnage. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Thumbnail shows a containership. Image by Noushad Thekkayil/EPA/Shutterstock

04-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Global Service International (GSI) CEO Francesco Zanchi discusses polyethylene terephthalate (PET) industry challenges and opportunities with ICIS PET editor Caroline Murray. Europe will combat overcapacity and rising imports with trade barriers Buyers delay switch to recycled PET (R-PET) due to price delta with virgin PET Supply and demand trends favor buyers Caroline interviewed Francesco on the sidelines of the GSI customer day PET Day at Artimino, Italy. Video interview by Caroline Murray Edited by Will Beacham

04-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: Italian monthly bales prices drop in latest auctions Colourless flake prices fall in Italy in October Cheaper PET puts pressure on R-PET sellers No signs of demand improvement in October

04-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The three-day strike by US Gulf and East Coast dock workers has been suspended until 15 January to allow negotiations to resume, according to a joint statement from the union and ports. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) said they have reached a tentative agreement on wages and will extend the current contract while they continue to negotiate other outstanding issues. “Effective immediately, all current job actions will cease, and all work covered by the master contract will resume,” the statement read. The union went on strike on 1 October as negotiations were stalled. The union was seeking a 77% increase over the next six years and commitments against any kind of automation at the ports – full or semi – that would replace jobs or historical work functions. The USMX was offering about a 50% increase. IMPACTS TO CHEM MARKETS The strike had already had some impacts on the US chemicals industry, with polyethylene (PE) exports to Brazil being put on hold. The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry is concerned as all US Gulf PVC exports move out of one of the impacted East Coast ports. In the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market, imports of PET resins have already been diverted to the US West Coast in anticipation of the work stoppage. Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

03-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–In only its third day, a strike by dock workers at US Gulf and East Coast ports is leading to idled trucks and growing numbers of container ships queuing outside of the ports. TRUCKING A trucking trade group, the American Trucking Associations (ATA), said that the strike has stopped all activity at five of the nation’s top 10 container ports and estimates that more than 60 container ships carrying nearly 500,000 containers scheduled for October delivery are now stuck in limbo. The ATA said there are 30,000 truckers registered to work just at the port of New York and New Jersey, which sees about 12,000 truck visits in a typical day. “Tens of thousands of more up and down the coasts are now sidelined by this strike,” the ATA said. The ATA said that the trucking industry is made up of small businesses with more than 95% of carriers operating 10 trucks or fewer. Todd Spencer, president of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, said American consumers will suffer the longer the strike goes on, but that independent drivers will also feel the pain. "The longer this labor strike drags out, the more harm is done to American consumers who rely on the trucking industry to deliver the goods they depend on,” Spencer said. “We encourage a quick resolution to this latest dispute and emphasize the need for specific discussions about how supply chain deficiencies stifle driver compensation, increase loading and unloading delays, and hurt highway safety.” CONTAINER SHIPS BACKING UP Ships are also backing up outside of the affected ports, according to publicly available ship tracking services. For example, there were about 51 vessels outside the entrance to Port Houston on 2 October, and about 65 vessels in the same area on 3 October. Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence, said a prolonged strike will have an impact on global capacity as carriers currently have 62 deep sea services that call on East Coast and US Gulf ports. Those vessels will have to wait at anchorage at the first port of call on their discharge schedule, Murphy said. “In addition to that there are vessels which have already commenced their discharge rotation and will have to wait at their second, third, or even fourth port of call, depending on how much of their schedule they have already completed prior to the strike taking place,” Murphy said. If the strike were to last four weeks, Murphy said that almost 7% of the global fleet will be tied up along the US East Coast, and the overall impact on the supply and demand equation will be very significant. EXCESSIVE SURCHARGES A chemical industry trade group, the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD), sent a letter to US President Joe Biden criticizing excessive surcharges imposed by the carriers. In the letter, ACD President and CEO Eric Byer highlighted the excessive surcharges imposed – and profits made – by ocean shippers who strangely had direct involvement in the failed negotiations. “Neither side negotiated in good faith, effectively inviting a strike to take place,” Byer said. “For the ocean carriers, this is not surprising given the extreme profits they have been able to collect over recent years, putting them in a position to contentedly wait out a strike while the American economy loses billions of dollars a day.” Byer said that the ocean carrier member companies of the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) are levying a myriad of surcharges on shippers, ranging from hundreds of dollars to $3,000/container, citing labor disruptions as the cause. “Through these surcharges, the ocean carriers are profiting from a crisis they played a direct role in creating,” Byer said. STALLED NEGOTIATIONSMeanwhile, the two sides are not currently negotiating. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) is representing the dock workers, and USMX is representing the ports. USMX directors include representatives of major shipping lines, including Evergreen Shipping, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, Ocean Network Express, CMA/CGM, COSCO Shipping Lines, and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). USMX said it continues to focus on ratifying a new master contract. “Reaching an agreement will require negotiating – and our full focus is on how to return to the table to further discuss these vital components, many of which are intertwined,” USMX said. “We cannot agree to preconditions to return to bargaining – but we remain committed to bargaining in good faith to address the ILA’s demands and USMX’s concerns.” IMPACTS TO CHEM MARKETS The strike is already affecting the US chemicals industry, with PE exports to Brazil being put on hold. The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) Industry is concerned as all US Gulf PVC exports move out of one of the impacted East Coast ports. In the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market, imports of PET resins have already been diverted to the US West Coast in anticipation of the work stoppage. Focus story by Adam Yanelli Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page

03-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Negotiations have yet to resume between union dock workers and the US Gulf and East Coast ports as a costly strike enters its second day. The International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), representing dock workers at ports from Maine to Texas, and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), representing the ports, posted statements to their websites accusing each other of being unwilling to negotiate. “We have demonstrated a commitment to doing our part to end the completely avoidable ILA strike,” USMX said. “Our current offer of a nearly 50% wage increase exceeds every other recent union settlement, while addressing inflation, and recognizing the ILA’s hard work to keep the global economy running. We look forward to hearing from the union about how we can return to the table and actually bargain, which is the only way to reach a resolution.” The ILA responded by saying the USMX offer fails to address the demands of union labor. “They might claim a significant increase, but they conveniently omit that many of our members are operating multi-million-dollar container-handling equipment for a mere $20 an hour,” the ILA said. “In some states, the minimum wage is already $15. Furthermore, our members endure a grueling six-year wage progression before they can even reach the top wage tier, regardless of how many hours they work or the effort they put in.” One of the biggest sticking points remains the union’s steadfast stance against any kind of automation at the ports – full or semi – that would replace jobs or historical work functions. "We will not accept the loss of work and livelihood for our members due to automation,” the ILA said. “Our position is clear: the preservation of jobs and historical work functions is non-negotiable.” FMC OFFERS SERVICES With carriers already announcing congestion surcharges, the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) is offering assistance for enforcement and litigation services that individuals and companies could find helpful in seeking relief from current supply chain challenges. FMC regulations require that demurrage and detention fees serve as legitimate financial incentives to encourage cargo movement. Pursuant to these requirements, the FMC will scrutinize any demurrage and detention charges assessed during terminal closures. The FMC advised all regulated entities on 23 September that all statutes and regulations administered by the commission remain in effect during any terminal closures related to the strike. GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION REQUESTED Meanwhile, the American Chemistry Council (ACC) and the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) continue to request government intervention to end the work stoppage. “We urge the White House to do everything possible to prevent this major shockwave from rippling through the American supply chain and hurting US trade by working with both parties to resume contract negations,” Chris Jahn, ACC president and CEO, said. Jahn noted that about 90% of the waterborne chemical shipments that move in and out of the US flow through the East Coast and US Gulf Coast ports. Eric R Byer, president and CEO of the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) also urged President Joe Biden to act. “ACD urges the Biden Administration to swiftly intervene to resolve this strike by reopening the ports and getting both sides to reach an agreement to prevent further supply chain disruptions and avoid significant economic consequences,” Byer said. Biden, in a statement released last night, said he supports the collective bargaining process as the best way for workers to get the pay and benefits they deserve and urged USMX to return to the bargaining table with a fair offer. “Ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic and in some cases, profits grew in excess of 800% compared to their profits prior to the pandemic,” Biden said. “Executive compensation has grown in line with those profits and profits have been returned to shareholders at record rates. It is only fair that workers, who put themselves at risk during the pandemic to keep ports open, see a meaningful increase in their wages as well.” Biden also said his administration will be watching for any price gouging activity that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board. IMPACTS TO CHEM MARKETS The strike is already affecting the US chemicals industry, with PE exports to Brazil being put on hold. The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) Industry is concerned as all US Gulf PVC exports move out of one of the impacted East Coast ports. In the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market, imports of PET resins have already been diverted to the US West Coast in anticipation of the work stoppage. Focus story by Adam Yanelli Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship.

02-Oct-2024

LONDON (ICIS)–Underlying demand for European recycled agglomerates has increased throughout 2024, and is expected to rise sharply as pyrolysis-based chemical recycling scales. The majority of recycled polyolefin agglomerates are currently used by mechanical recyclers. Nevertheless, pyrolysis based chemical recyclers are increasingly targeting agglomerates as a feedstock. While chemical recycling can process waste types that it would be difficult or impossible for mechanical recyclers to use, though, it is a myth that there is no link between the input waste quality and output quality of chemical recyclers, and that chemical recyclers can use any form of waste. Take pyrolysis-based chemical recycling as an example. Pyrolysis-based plants targeting mixed plastic waste as feedstock – with a focus on polyolefins – currently account for ~60% of all operating chemical recycling capacity in Europe according to ICIS Recycling Supply Tracker – Chemical. Typically, pyrolysis-based processes aim to limit chlorine content in bales- due to corrosion risks –  polyethylene terephthalate (PET) content in bales – because it doesn’t pyrolyse and it creates oxygenation – nylon and flame retardants – which also oxygenates the process. They also typically aim to minimise moisture content, because loose water molecules in the reactor can cause changes to pressure values. The production of pyrolysis oil requires an inert atmosphere (i.e. heating in the absence of oxygen). The quality of input waste is one of the largest dictators of output quality across pyrolysis oil grades, dictating the type of impurities and boiling point. Boiling point, chlorine, sulphur, fluorine, nitrogen and oxygen contents are among the key determiners of pyrolysis oil prices – with an average spread of €1,150/tonne currently being seen between the lowest value (tyre-derived) and highest value (naphtha substitute) grades of pyrolysis oil that ICIS prices. Any sorting that needs to be done to remove the presence of these materials in the input bale adds additional cost and slows throughput. Pyrolysis oil can be – and often is – run through an upgrader or purifier to enhance its properties, but the quality of input waste has an impact both on yield and quality – and, therefore, profitability. This is one of the reasons the environmental impact of pyrolysis oil remains unclear and varies from producer to producer. While pyrolysis oil producers continue to test with a wide-range of waste input qualities, many producers are turning to agglomerations of polyolefins, and it is expected to become a leading feedstock for pyrolysis-based chemical recycling in the mid-term. This is in response to some of the challenges chemical recyclers have found with pre-treatment and sorting on site. This is particularly connected to the need to adapt processes continuously to account for continually shifting feedstock mixes. Pre-treating and sorting at waste manager level creates economies of scale and prevents the slowdown in throughput sometimes associated with chemical recyclers sorting on site. The use of agglomerates helps pyrolysis oil producers: Limit impurities such as sulphur, fluoride, oxygen, chlorine and nitrogen in finished pyrolysis oil – which typically results in a higher realizable price for that pyrolysis oil, and greater feasibility for use in a cracker Enable placing feedstock straight into the reactor and thereby save on capital expenditure Ensure a more consistent feedstock, with pre-treatment handled at waste managers which benefit from economies of scale and long-standing technical know-how Avoid slowing throughput and the expense of onsite sorting Avoid degradation and allow players to stockpile material ahead of plant scale-ups Target specific waste input mixed (although this can result in additional cost premiums) In response to the growing interest in recycled polyolefin agglomerates, ICIS has launched a new recycled agglomerates price index as part of its mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil (Europe) pricing service. The new index is for spot prices of agglomerated forms of mixed polyolefin material containing at least 95% polyolefin content and a maximum moisture content of 3%. It is assessed weekly on an ex-works Europe basis. The mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil (Europe) pricing service also offers pricing for mixed polyolefin bales, high plastic content refuse derived fuel (RDF) bales, reject unsorted plastic waste bales from municipal recover facilities (MRFs), and 3 spot price series for pyrolysis oil (tyre derived, non-upgraded, and naphtha substitute). For more information on these new series, or to share feedback, please contact Mark Victory at mark.victory@icis.com.

02-Oct-2024

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. We now have 32 months of trade and pricing data since the end of the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle and so it is worth taking stock of what the numbers are telling us. And as we have 32 months of information to draw on since the end of the Supercycle, which is from January 2022 until August 2024, it is worth making like-for-like comparisons with the 32-month period immediately before the end of the Supercycle – May 2019 until December 2021. Focusing just on polypropylene (PP) with the story the same in many other products: South Korea and Taiwan saw declines in PP sales turnover in China of $1.1 billion and $694 million respectively when this two 3-month periods are compared. Despite its feedstock advantages, Saudi Arabia saw its turnover fall by $681m followed by Singapore at $633m and Thailand at $613 million . Losses across China’s top ten trading partners totalled $4.6bn. The only winner was, not surprisingly, the Russian Federation with a turnover gain of $102 million. Another symptom of a chronically oversupplied market has been a collapse in margins as another chart in today’s post illustrates: In May 2019-December, the average of both naphtha and PDH-based PP margins was $281/tonne, but this fell to just $12/tonne in January 2022-September 2024. And this latter period has involved many weeks of negative margins. A pivotal turning point in global chemicals markets, the most important since 1992, was the Evergrande Moment. And yet far are too few references to this essential context. China’s debts and its demographics told us from as early as 2011 that a steep fall in economic growth had to happen. We also knew from 2014 onwards, thanks to a shift in government policy, that much-greater chemicals self-sufficiency was on the way. This gave producers plenty of time to build strategies that reduced their dependence on China. But how many companies took note of what the demographic and debt trends were telling us? How many took note of the threat to China’s exports from 2018 onwards as the geopolitical environment deteriorated? My suspicion is that far too few companies were ready for the changes now well underway, which are reflected in the above demand, supply, sales turnover and margins data. This was because people chose to believe misleading nonsense about the “rise of China’s middle class” when the numbers on China’s per capita incomes, the country’s birthrate and the rise in its debts exposed the myth. The chemicals industry is science and data driven except, seemingly, in one critical area:  Macroeconomics. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

02-Oct-2024

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Participants in the US chemical industry worry that a prolonged strike by US Gulf and East Coast dock workers will hurt exporters and lead to supply surpluses, and some carriers are already initiating port congestion surcharges that will add increased costs on top of delays to both imports and exports. As expected, dockworkers on the US East and Gulf Coasts went on strike early on Tuesday after labor union International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) rejected the latest wage offer by employers’ group United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). While the US government has said it will not intervene, some analysts, including Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, think government intervention will be required to bring the dispute to an end. “The latest statement by the ILA suggests there is very little prospect of the two sides reaching a mutually agreeable resolution,” Sand said. “To stop trade from entering the US on such a scale for a prolonged period of time is unthinkable so the Government will need to step in for the good of its people and economy.” Kevin Swift, ICIS Senior Economist for Global Chemicals, said the strike could cost the US economy up to $5 billion/day. "This will affect imports from Germany, the Netherlands and other European nations," Swift said. "I think the effect is more on specialty chemicals than resins. Swift said the ultimate disruption and cost to the economy depends on how long the strike lasts. IMPACT TO CHEM MARKETSThe strike is already impacting US polyethylene (PE) exports. Container ships also transport polymers, such as PE and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. A PE trader in South America told ICIS that they are halting sales of US material destined for Brazil until additional information is available since they are unable to inform clients of the estimated departure date. According to the trader, some cargoes could be delayed by 30 days. The US is the main origin of PE imports into Brazil. The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) Industry is concerned as all US Gulf PVC exports move out of one of the impacted East Coast ports. This could result in a long inventory situation and an increase in days of supply if producers and traders are unable to execute on export transactions due to the port strike. In the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market, imports of PET resins have already been diverted to the US West Coast in anticipation of the work stoppage. But this places extra pressure on the rail and trucking industries which will need to move that material to destinations that were previously reached from the US Gulf or the East Coast. Imports of purified terephthalic acid (PTA), used to make PET, that typically come from South Korea and Mexico, could be affected by the strike. Even if some PTA gets delivered on the West Coast, it will still need to be transported to the East Coast where most PET plants are located. CARRIER SURCHARGES Market sources are telling ICIS they are seeing congestion surcharges between $1,000-3,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), with some citing even higher surcharges. Sand said that extreme increases in container costs cited by ILA president Harold Daggett have not been seen yet. In a statement on 30 September, Daggett said carriers are charging $30,000/container. Sand cited Xeneta data, which is based on more than 450 million crowdsourced datapoints, showing average spot rates on the major fronthaul from Asia to US East Coast were at around $7,000/FEU on 1 October. “While average spot rates from north Europe to the US East Coast have increased 50% since the end of August, they are still only $2,800/FEU,” Sand said. Supply chain advisors Drewry also show rates from Asia to the USEC at $6,000/FEU, and rates from Asia to the USWC are at $5,500, although the rate of decline has slowed with more traffic heading that way because of the strike. Liquid chemicals that are largely transported by tankers are unlikely to be affected. But more liquid chemicals are being moved on container ships in isotanks. Focus story by Adam Yanelli Additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten, Emily Friedman, Bruno Menini, Antulio Borneo and Kelly Coutu Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship carrying cargo on its way to Antwerp Harbour. (OLIVIER HOSLET/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock).

01-Oct-2024