Recycled polyolefins (R-PE, R-PP)
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Discover the factors influencing recycled polyolefins (R-PE, R-PP) markets
Recycled polyolefins (R-PE, R-PP) markets are increasingly complex and competitive. As new regulations are introduced, supply chains mature, and consumer pressure against single-use plastic intensifies, the need for clarity grows. Commercial decisions backed by benchmarked prices and robust analysis of demand-supply fundamentals are critical to navigating this successfully.
To make the most of new opportunities in recycled polymers, it is vital to understand, anticipate and evaluate the impact of brand sustainability targets and supply and demand shifts – both on your business and the wider industry.
Access comprehensive market intelligence globally for recycled polyolefins from trusted experts based within the regions. ICIS assesses more than 70 grades of R-PE and R-PP globally. Our assessments span from waste bales through to flakes and pellets, and across post-consumer, post-industrial rigid and flexible sectors, for R-HDPE, R-LDPE and R-PP, supporting sound decision making through all stages of the chain.
ICIS also offers mixed polyolefin bale prices as part of its Mixed Plastic Waste and Pyrolysis Oil (Europe) pricing service.
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LyondellBasell may make 2026 FID on US chemical recycling plant
HOUSTON (ICIS)–LyondellBasell could make a final investment decision (FID) in 2026 on a second chemical recycling plant, which it may build in the US at its refinery site in Houston, the CEO said on Friday. "FID, for the final step, I would expect that to happen in 2026," said Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell CEO. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. The chemical recycling plant would feature LyondellBasell's MoReTec process technology. The plant could produce 100,000 tonnes/year of cracker feedstock. If LyondellBasell moves ahead with the MoReTec plant, it could be part of a larger project that would convert the Houston refinery into a sustainability hub. The refinery's existing hydrotreaters would be retrofitted so they could upgrade the output from the MoReTec unit as well as from third-party recycling plants. Once upgraded, the feedstock could be shipped by pipeline to LyondellBasell's cracker operations in nearby Channelview, where it will be converted into olefins. Those olefins would be polymerized to produce circular polyolefins, which LyondellBasell would market under its CirculenRevive brand. LyondellBasell could also retrofit other units at the refinery that would convert renewable material into distillates and feedstock that the company could process in its crackers. LyondellBasell could market the resulting polymers under its CirculenRenew brand. LyondellBasell did not provide details about the source of these renewable feedstocks. However, one source could be a storage and logistics hub in Harvey, Louisiana, that is being developed by Kinder Morgan and Finnish refiner Neste. The hub collects used cooking oil and other renewable feedstock, and it could be expanded at Neste's option. Neste pioneered the production of naphtha from renewable feedstock, and the Houston refinery is a short distance by sea from Harvey. In the future, the hydrogen that LyondellBasell would need for upgrading recycled and renewable feedstock could come from nearby blue and green hydrogen projects. LyondellBasell, Air Liquide, Chevron and Uniper are part of a consortium that is evaluating sites for a hydrogen and ammonia project on the Gulf Coast. The Houston refinery is the top choice for the site. More hydrogen could come from the proposed Houston HyVelocity Hub. It is among the hubs participating in the Department of Energy's Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs program. SHUTDOWN OF HOUSTON REFINERY IN Q1In January, LyondellBasell will start shutting down the first crude distillation unit and coker train at the refinery. In February, the company will begin shutting down the second crude distillation unit and coker train, the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit and other ancillary units. The refinery does not have a catalytic reformer. CONSTRUCTION STARTS AT GERMAN RECYCLNG PLANTIn September, LyondellBasell started construction at its MoReTec 1 plant in Wesseling, Germany, which will have a capacity of 50,000 tonnes/year and which should start up in 2026. Vanacker said the plant has a plastic-to-plastic yield of more than 80%. It can use 100% renewable power. Thumbnail photo: Plastic which can be recycled. (By Allison Dinner/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
01-Nov-2024
VIDEO: FD NWE R-PET colourless flake prices may see first changes since May
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling, Matt Tudball, discusses the latest developments in the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market, including: FD NWE colourless flake under downward pressure for November Views divided, some see stability, others see softer prices PET tray demand suffering in Q4 Reductions ahead of SUPD paints negative picture for legislation
01-Nov-2024
BLOG: Developing world outside China to the rescue, but not for long
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Understanding chemicals and polymers demand during the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle was easy, firstly, because demand always boomed and secondly, because these were the dominant factors shaping markets: Lots of young people moving to the cities in China to make goods for export followed by China’s enormous debt and speculation bubble from 2009 onwards, which was mainly centered on real estate. Now, as the future of demand growth is in the Developing World ex-China, we need to understand hundreds of different countries. Before you get carried away with excitement, ICIS analysis suggests this: Developing World ex-China demand cannot do anything over as long as perhaps the next seven years to substantially absorb all-time high levels of oversupply. Why the oversupply? Because too many people missed the build-up of demographic and debt challenges in China and didn’t react quickly enough when the 2021 Evergrande Moment arrived. This is a lesson for how we analyze the Developing World ex-China. Focusing on polypropylene (PP) as an example: Despite the Developing World ex-China's much bigger population of around six billion versus China's population of some 1.4 billion, ICIS still expects that by 2030, Developing World ex-China's demand will be some 8 million tonnes lower than China's. The ICIS base case assumes that global PP capacity exceeding demand will average 25 million tonnes a year in 2021-2024. This compares with just 5 million tonnes a year during the 1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle. Global operating rates averaged 87% in 1992-2023. But given this oversupply, our forecast for 2024-2030 is 77%. To achieve 87%, assuming our base case assumption for production is right (the same as demand), capacity would have to grow by an average 2.2m tonnes a year versus our base case of 4.8 million tonnes. As feedstock-advantaged producers such as those in the Middle East are likely to press ahead with projects, and as China may continue to add more capacity, capacity growth of 2.2 million tonnes a year implies closures of plants elsewhere. The ICIS base assumes 4% average annual PP demand growth in China in 2024-2030 when 2%, in my view, is more likely. If 2% growth were to happen, and demand growth in the other regions was the same as our base case, capacity growth would need to be just 1.4 million tonnes year to achieve an 87% operating rate in 2024-2030. Let’s next take 2% off Chinese growth and add this to our base case forecast for the Developing World ex-China. Capacity would still have to grow by just 1.9 million tonnes a year to achieve an 87% operating rate in 2024-2030 compared with, as mentioned earlier, our base case assumption of capacity growth of 4.8 million tonnes. While, as I said, the Developing World ex-China offers long-term big opportunities, we should keep in mind the words of Mark Twain: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.
01-Nov-2024
UK to accept fuel-exempt mass balanced chemical recycling in UK plastic packaging tax
LONDON (ICIS)—The UK government will support the use of mass balance for chemical recycling under the UK plastic packaging tax using a fuel-exempt accounting approach at site-level, it published in a consultation response late on Wednesday. The original consultation on “Plastic Packaging Tax – chemical recycling and adoption of a mass balance approach” was conducted from 18 July-10 October 2023. “Chemical recycling can complement the use of mechanical recycling technologies by enabling more types of plastic to be recycled and by producing a higher grade of recycled plastic, which can be used in regulated sectors such as food contact packaging. Chemical recycling therefore has the potential to help increase rates of plastic recycling,” the UK government said in its consultation response. As part of the consultation response, the government also announced that it will phase out the use of pre-consumer material as contributing towards recycled content thresholds in tax calculations. Under the UK Plastic Packaging tax, any packaging which is predominantly plastic by weight, and that does not contain at least 30% recycled material is subject to a charge of £217.85/tonne on the total weight of the packaging. When the tax was introduced, both chemical and mechanical recycling were accepted as contributing toward the target, but there was no decision on the acceptance of mass balance. In mass-balance, a certified volume of renewable or recycled material is input across a production run but may not be evenly distributed across each individual product. For example, a plant may use 30% recycled material overall, but one piece of produced packaging could contain 100% recycled material, and the next 100% virgin material, or any mix between those two extremes. Via this method, market players are able to state that they use a certain percentage of recycled or renewable material in their products, without having to prove that percentage in each individual product produced. Mass-balance is widely used in a number of industries and is not exclusive to either mechanical or chemical recycling. There have been different proposed accounting rules for mass-balance, all of which alter the possible recycled polymer output allocations, and therefore profitability throughout the chain, pyrolysis oil’s competitive position against mechanical recycling, and the sector’s attractiveness to investors. Under fuel exempt mass balance accounting rules, volumes used in fuel applications would not be attributable as recycled material, but material not ending up in fuels would be freely attributable across the value chain. Given that pyrolysis oil – the dominant form of chemical recycling in Europe – is used as a naphtha substitute in a cracker, many see acceptance of mass-balance as an essential enabler for chemical recycling to count towards recycling content thresholds. The UK government will not adopt definitions of chemical recycling under ISO standard 15270:2008, arguing that definitions of chemical recycling must be process and technology neutral. “The government intends to introduce a definition of chemical recycling in line with the proposed definition by the European Coalition for Chemical Recycling, for the purpose of the tax. This will enable businesses to use a mass balance approach to account for recycled material produced from any technology or process that meets the definition of chemical recycling,” the government stated. The government also said that differing units of measurement may be used at different parts of the supply chain. For example, mass being used at polymer and packaging level, and a Lower Heating Value approach used at refinery level. The government further stated that accredited certification schemes will be necessary to audit and certify the mass balance volumes, and it intends to accredit multiple certification schemes. The government also signaled that while it is not currently making changes to medical exemptions under the tax at present it intends to remove this exemption once more chemically recycled plastic is available. “Producers and importers of medical packaging are encouraged to start considering how to include more recycled plastic in their packaging as chemical recycling capacity, feedstock levels, recyclate availability increase, and advancements in technology are developed,” it stated. There was no timeframe announced for when these changes would take place. Clarity on the UKs approach to mass balance will be welcomed by the market. Despite structural tightness of pyrolysis oil in Europe, buying interest in 2024 to date has been lower than that seen in 2023 largely due to ongoing legal uncertainty over approaches to mass balance accounting. Legal uncertainty was one of the factors cited by Quantafuel in August for the cancellation of its 100,000 tonne/year pyrolysis-based chemical recycling project in Sunderland. On 16 July the British Plastics Federation (BPF) submitted a joint letter it had coordinated to the incoming Exchequer Secretary James Murray MP, calling for an urgent response to the previous government’s mass balance consultation. ICIS covers 3 grades of pyrolysis oil in its Mixed Plastic Waste and Pyrolysis Oil Europe pricing service . ICIS also offers mechanical recycling, waste bale, biodiesel, hydrogen, and virgin price coverage, giving you the complete picture across the sustainability value chain. For more information, please contact Mark Victory at mark.victory@icis.com.
30-Oct-2024
UPDATE: Japan's Sumitomo Chemical trims fiscal H1 net loss; eyes LDPE output cut
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sumitomo Chemical trimmed its fiscal H1 to September 2024 net loss to Japanese yen (Y) 6.5 billion ($42 million), aided by sales growth of about 5%, while it seeks to rationalize operations to boost profitability. Return to profit expected for year-to-March 2025 IT-related chemicals' fiscal H1 core operating profit more than doubles Chiba Works LDPE output to fall by 20,000 tonne/year in billion yen (Y) Apr-Sept 2024 Apr-Sept 2023 % change Yr-to-March 2025 (revised forecast) Yr-to-March 2024 (actual) Sales revenue 1,241.4 1,186.9 4.6 2,600.0 2,446.9 Core operating profit 29.5 -96.7 – 100.0 -149.0 Operating income 121.2 -133.7 – 180.0 -488.8 Net income -6.5 -76.3 – -25.0 -311.8 Revenues for the period increased on higher selling prices of synthetic resins, methyl methacrylate (MMA) and various industrial chemicals due to higher raw material prices, the company said in a statement. Sumitomo Chemical's Essential Chemicals & Plastics segment posted a lower core operating loss of Y36.7 billion, with sales up by 3.3% year on year to Y403 billion, it said. However, it noted that earnings were weighed down by a deterioration in the financial performance of its 37.5%-owned affiliate Saudi Arabia's Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Co. Meanwhile, IT-related chemicals posted a 10% increase in sales to Y224.3 billion, with core operating income more than doubling to Y37.5 billion, on the back of strong demand for display-related materials and processing materials for semiconductors, it said. For the whole of fiscal year ending March 2025, Sumitomo Chemical lowered its sales forecast by Y70 billion to Y2.6 trillion, but raised its net profit forecast by Y5 billion to Y25 billion. The forecast marks a return to profitability for Sumitomo Chemicals, which incurred a Y312 billion net loss in the previous fiscal year. LDPE OUTPUT CUT BY END-MARCH 2025In a separate statement on 29 October, the company announced plans to reduce its low density polyethylene (LDPE) production at Chiba Works by 20,000 tonnes/year, citing declining domestic demand. Operations at a portion of the company’s LDPE facilities at the site will be suspended by March 2025 – the end of its current fiscal year. Sumitomo Chemical has an LDPE plant in Chiba prefecture with a 172,000 tonne/year capacity, according to ICIS Supply and Demand Database. “The company expects this measure, combined with the various rationalization efforts that it has implemented thus far, to lead to improving the overall operating rate of the remaining facilities,” Sumitomo Chemical said. Japan’s LDPE demand “is not anticipated to have significant future growth”, it said, citing a declining population and an ageing society with a low birth rate. Sumitomo Chemical said that it is “accelerating business restructuring as part of its short-term intensive performance improvement measures”. Other measures include improving the company’s product portfolio “to cater to high value-added areas”, as well as working on fixed cost reduction at its remaining facilities, including a joint study with Maruzen Petrochemical to optimize operations of their joint venture Keiyo Ethylene. The Japanese producer said that it “will steadily advance these measures to ensure a V-shaped recovery in fiscal 2024, while also carrying out fundamental structural reforms”. Focus article by Pearl Bantillo ($1 = Y153.3) (adds paragraphs 8-15 with recasts throughout)
30-Oct-2024
SHIPPING: Union, US East Coast ports to resume negotiations in November
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Union dock workers and US East Coast port operators will resume negotiations on a new master agreement in November, according to a joint statement from both parties. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing the dock workers, and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which represents the ports, reached a tentative agreement on 3 October that ended a three-day strike. The strike was paused until 15 January after parties agreed on the salary portion of the agreement, essentially meeting in the middle. But the union remains adamant against any full or partial automation at ports that could threaten union jobs. The respective negotiating committees will meet in New Jersey, where they will look to agree on terms for a new contract that can be presented to the full ILA Wage Scale Committee for approval, and later, to ILA membership for ratification, the statement said. “The ILA and USMX welcome the opportunity to return to the bargaining table and get a new agreement in place as soon as possible,” the parties said. The two sides will not discuss details of negotiations with the media prior to these meetings. IMPACTS TO CHEM MARKETS The short strike had some impact on the US chemicals industry, with polyethylene (PE) exports to Brazil being put on hold in the lead up to the work stoppage. The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) industry was concerned as all US Gulf PVC exports move out of one of the impacted East Coast ports. In the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) market, imports of PET resins were diverted to the US West Coast in anticipation of the work stoppage. The dock workers do not handle liquid chemical tankers, as most terminals that handle liquid chemical tankers are privately owned and do not necessarily use union labor. Also, tankers do not require as much labor as container or dry cargo vessels, which must be loaded and unloaded with cranes and require labor for forklifts and trucks. But container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock
28-Oct-2024
Europe top stories: weekly summary
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 25 October. Sentiment in Europe jet fuel market dented by crude instability and soaring stocks Bearing the brunt of low demand and a supply overhang, sentiment in the European jet kerosene spot market has been further dulled by upstream Brent crude fluctuations and soaring regional stock levels hitting their highest since August 2021. Eni to close Versalis crackers, PE plant as it pivots to low carbon, specialty production with €2 billion investment Italy’s Eni plans to close its Versalis crackers at Brindisi and Priolo, plus a polyethylene (PE) site at Ragusa as it refocuses on low carbon and specialty chemical production through a €2 billion investment over the next five years. Dow to review Europe polyurethanes amid ‘increasing challenges’ of regulation Dow is set to review the competitiveness of several assets in Europe, particularly around its polyurethanes operations, amid “increasing challenges” presented by the region’s regulatory environment, CEO Jim Fitterling said in a Q3 results statement. Europe ECH prices dip for first time since January as raw material costs ease Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) freely negotiated contract prices have softened in October for the first time since January 2024 as propylene feedstocks costs ease in a muted and well supplied ECH market. INSIGHT: ‘Bridge’ countries bring new opportunities as global trade flows fragment – Bertschi Changing trade flows driven by increasing friction between China, the US and their allies mean there will be demand for new chemical logistics routes and infrastructure, according to the executive chairman of chemical logistics group Bertschi. Europe PE/PP October contracts down on monomer and stagnant demand European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) contracts have been agreed down slightly beyond the monomer drop for October.
28-Oct-2024
Asia top stories – weekly summary
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 25 October. Asia's naphtha market eyes demand uptick By Li Peng Seng 21-Oct-24 11:38 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia's naphtha intermonth spread was near a two-month high recently and it may be able to hold firm in the near term on reduced arbitrage volumes in November and anticipated demand growth ahead. Energy transition plan reset needed with renewed focus on Asia – Aramco President By Jonathan Yee 21-Oct-24 14:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco chief Amin Nasser on Monday called for a new energy transition plan that considers the needs of all countries, specifically those in Asia and the broader Global South, amid growing oil demand. Asia ACN regional producers bullish on tighter supply; India’s BIS deadline nears By Corey Chew 22-Oct-24 11:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia acrylonitrile (ACN) prices saw a recent uptrend the past two weeks, with plants of key regional producers in Taiwan and South Korea under planned maintenance. PODCAST: Macroeconomic pressure continues to weigh on Asia recycling sentiment By Damini Dabholkar 22-Oct-24 17:13 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The short-term demand outlook for recycled polymers from Asia remains sluggish especially for low-value grades, mainly due to poor economics and brand users’ preference of cheaper virgin plastics. Emerging Asian economies’ strong growth to subside amid China slowdown – IMF By Nurluqman Suratman 23-Oct-24 12:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Emerging Asian economies are expected to see strong economic growth subside, partly due to a sustained slowdown in China, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. PODCAST: Asia methanol impacted by geopolitical uncertainty, supply cuts expected in Q4 By Damini Dabholkar 24-Oct-24 23:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asian methanol markets in recent weeks were driven more by sentiment than changes in fundamentals as participants respond to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. However, some supply changes in coming months are expected to alter the landscape in Q1 2025. Supply glut casts shadow over Asia PC market recovery By Li Peng Seng 25-Oct-24 13:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China's polycarbonates (PC) spot demand has remained sluggish as ample supplies have kept purchases on a need-to basis, and this trend will persist through yearend.
28-Oct-2024
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates fall as carriers eye blank sailings to keep floor on prices
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US fell this week, but carriers have announced an increase in blank sailings so they can tighten capacity and maintain a floor on prices. Rates have been falling steadily since July as importers pulled forward peak season volumes to get ahead of the dock workers strike at East Coast and US Gulf ports. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said some carriers added blank sailings on Asia-to-US routes. Last week, Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) announced four blank sailings on its Asia-USEC 2M service, citing ongoing congestion at some ports related to the brief work stoppage. Levine said the action could also be to maintain a floor on rates. Global average rates fell by 4% and are just above $3,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Rates to the East Coast fell by 6.1% to around $5,200/FEU, with rates to the West Coast falling by 2.6% to around $4,800/FEU, as shown in the following chart. Transpacific rates are now about 30% below the July peak, and Levine expects them to continue to soften as the market is in a slow period between the end of the Christmas holiday peak season and the Lunar New Year. “As long as Red Sea diversions continue to absorb capacity on an industry level, prices may not fall much further than seen back in April,” Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES FLAT TO LOWER Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were softer this week for several trade lanes, in particular the USG-to-Brazil and USG-Asia trade lanes as spot tonnage remains readily available. There has been limited spot activity to both regions and COA nominations are taking longer than usual. The vessel owners have tried to delay the sailings but there has been very little spot interest in the market leaving no other options for full cargoes and in turn impacting spot rates. On the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg remains steady as there was ample space available, which readily absorbed the few fresh inquiries for small specialty parcels stemming from the USG bound for Antwerp. Various glycol, ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and methanol parcels were seen quoted to ARA and the Med as methanol prices in the region remain higher. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan
25-Oct-2024
VIDEO: International Gate talks to ICIS about PET, R-PET ‘chaotic’ market outlook
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editors Caroline Murray and Matt Tudball interviewed Marco Piscitelli, founder and CEO of International Gate, at the company’s customer event in Verona, Italy on 23 October to get his views some of the key topics impacting the European polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and recycled PET (R-PET) markets, including: ‘Theoretical’ global oversupply of PET and how freight, energy costs and economics all play a part in the market The importance of customers finding the right partners to navigate challenges in 2025 The ‘Recycling Revolution’ and the impact of the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) The ‘chaos’ around the lack of legislative clarity facing the PET and R-PET markets in 2025 Suitability of single pellet solutions (SPS) for brands with high recycled content targets.
25-Oct-2024
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