Energy

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from southeast Asia and Vietnam have risen above rates from China to the US as tariffs – and a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs – are already shifting global trade patterns. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said he is now seeing the shifting global trade patterns caused by the tariffs play out in ocean freight rates. “Falling demand out of China has coincided with shippers rushing imports out of Vietnam, which is subject to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs,” Sand said. “Seeing the relationship between these two trades turn on its head is an early indication of the potential for tariffs to shift global trade on its axis.” Sand, using Xeneta data, said importing into the US West Coast from China was more expensive than importing from Vietnam on 16 March. But by 25 April, Vietnam has become the more expensive of the two trades, as shown in the following chart. In another example, the spread in rates between China and southeast Asia trades into US West Coast has widened from $7/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) on 31 March to $181/FEU on 25 April (with southeast Asia the more expensive). “As shippers stopped or slowed exports from China due to the tariffs, they have accelerated exports from southeast Asia countries, which has caused the spread in freight rates on these trades to widen,” Sand said. AVERAGE GLOBAL RATES TICK LOWER Average global container rates edged lower by 2% week on week, accord to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects rates to continue to decline in the coming week due to uncertainty stemming from reciprocal tariffs. Blank sailings have surged again this week as carriers strive to maintain rates or at least stop the slide. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said the impact of the trade war has led shippers to pause, or outright cancel, shipments. “This in turn reduces demand for capacity on container vessels, to which carriers respond by cancelling sailings,” Murphy said. Murphy said this level of escalation in blanked capacity illustrates a dramatic change in the market. “Partly from the perspective of the magnitude of the blank sailings, which are more akin to what we tend to see seasonally following Chinese New Year in January/February and Chinese Golden Week in October,” Murphy said. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos also fell over the week, with rates to both US coasts down by 5%. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said some vessels are leaving China only half full because of canceled orders. Levine said some retailers have inventory from front-loading deliveries over the past few months and are taking a wait-and-see approach. PORT CHARGES TARGETING CHINA-LINKED SHIPS Levine said revised guidelines from the US Trade Representative (USTR) targeting China’s dominance in the maritime industry should not lead to the significant port call omissions and congestion that many feared would result from the original per port call proposal. Market intelligence group Linerlytica said that although port fees on Chinese operated and Chinese-built ships are retained, carriers will be able to circumvent the fees by swapping out all of the affected ships in the next 180 days as the fee will no longer apply on the operators’ fleet composition or prospective orders but only on ships calling at US ports on a per voyage basis. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES HOLD STEADY US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady this week with rates remaining unchanged from last week despite rates continuing to be pressured downward for several trade lanes. There is downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as charterers are still in wait-and-see mode, and besides contract of affreightment (COA) cargoes there is very little seen in the market. The tariffs and uncertainty continue to dampen the spot market, weighing on rates. The usual spot cargoes of methanol from Jose to China are the only ones reported, leaving methanol requirements from the region active to Asia. Similarly, rates from the USG to ARA and all other trade lanes also held steady. The spot market to Europe gained momentum with a relatively good number of inquiries following the Easter holidays.  Despite the increased interest rates remain unchanged as the clean petroleum products (CPP) market continues to remain soft, leaving those vessels to participate in the chemical sector. From the USG to Brazil, this trade lane had seen more inquiries, but there is plenty of available space for May lending downward pressure to spot rates and leaving most owners still trying to fill up prompt part space to both South American coasts for 1H May. Rates are soft and have lost some ground. The USG to India route has seen an uptick in inquiries over the last week with no confirmed fixtures. Market talk of a trade deal between the US and India have sparked some interest leaving the rates flat for the time being and expected to remain unchanged in the near term. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

25-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A subsidiary of Sweden-based fashion retailer H&M, Syre, has announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Binh Dinh province in Vietnam to build a circular textile recycling plant, the company said on Friday. Syre, a joint venture between H&M and technology investment firm Vargas, announced plans to build a Gigascale recycling plant in Binh Dinh, which will produce up to 250,000 tonnes of high-quality polyethylene terephthalate (PET) chips from textile waste. “Syre has an ambition to support Vietnam in its green transition and as a global leader in the circular textile industry,” said Dennis Nobelius, CEO of Syre. “The partnership with the Binh Dinh Province will, with the right conditions in place, be a great opportunity to jointly lead the textile shift,” Nobelius added. Investment details have not been finalized, Nobelius said. "Binh Dinh offers an excellent investment environment, being a hub for clean energy … with synchronized infrastructure … and favorable climate conditions,” said Vietnam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on 23 April. Syre is a circular textile-to-textile recycling firm with one plant in North Carolina in the US under construction, to be operational in mid-2025. The North Carolina plant will have a capacity of up to 10,000 tonnes/year of circular polyester. In 2024, Syre raised $100 million in funds to construct its plants in North Carolina and other locations such as Vietnam.

25-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Canadian ammonia exports are exempted from the prohibitively high levy imposed on Canadian exports to the US, thanks to the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. However, the trade tensions would inevitably motivate Canada to be less reliant on its closest neighbour market and accelerate diversification of its ammonia exports to Asia from the Prince Rupert Port in western Canada. Stronger push for Canada to diversify ammonia exports despite US tariff exemption Prince Rupert Port – an emerging low carbon ammonia export and bunkering hub US Gulf Coast low carbon ammonia projects to face strong competition Prince Rupert Port has the shortest shipping distances between North America and Asia hence its direct shipping route to Asia stands to undermine the competitiveness of low carbon ammonia exports from the US Gulf Coast. Besides comparatively longer shipping distances, shipments from the US Gulf Coast to Asia have also been faced with seasonal congestions at the Panama Canal. Key industry stakeholders in Japan and South Korea have been in talks with US companies to jointly produce low carbon ammonia in the US Gulf Coast States of Texas and Louisiana for export to Asia. Among the announced US projects, the joint venture between Japan’s largest energy company JERA Company (JERA), global investment and trading company Mitsui & Company and US fertilizer producer CF Industries have progressed to Final Investment Decision. The first ammonia exports from Prince Rupert Port to Asia are likely to be low carbon trades spearheaded by two of Japan’s largest trading houses Itochu and Marubeni. Low carbon ammonia exports from Prince Rupert Port would position Canada as a key stakeholder in an emerging low carbon commodity ecosystem comprising major bunkering hubs such as Amsterdam, Algeciras, Singapore and Port Zayed, key exporters including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Egypt, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Australia and the US, and importers including countries in Europe, Japan and South Korea (please see map below). Note: Includes proposed and ongoing investments Low carbon ammonia supplies via the Prince Rupert Port will also facilitate development of a low carbon marine fuel bunkering service that could potentially be in direct competition with the proposed low carbon bunkering services at the US ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Demand for low carbon ammonia bunker fuels on the US west coast is expected to be driven by car-carrying vessels calling at Port Bernicia and container vessels at Port Oakland. The Canadian government has been inviting foreign investments to develop a new liquid chemicals export route from the Prince Rupert Port as the port has been seeing declining trades volumes in recent years due to shifting global trade flows and competition with other North American ports. AltaGas and Royal Vopak are jointly building an export facility on the Ridley Island, British Columbia, that includes a large-scale liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and bulk liquids terminal with rail, logistics and marine infrastructure. As vessels can be configured to alternate between LPG and ammonia cargoes, ammonia can be one of the outbound trades to benefit from the export facility at Ridley Island. While diversifying overseas markets to pre-empt risks, including tariff or non-tariff trade barriers, would make sense for any exporters, it is particularly crucial for ammonia producers as stringent safety standards for the transportation and handling of ammonia means alternative export channels are not easily set up. Canada exported about 1.08 million tonnes of ammonia to the US last year, around 19% of its total annual ammonia capacity of about 5.62m tonnes, and almost all Canadian ammonia exports have been for the US market at least since 2020, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand database. With contributions from Kieran Cosgrove, Song Hea Beom and Sylvia Traganida INSIGHT article by Chow Bee Lin

25-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is considering exempting some chemical imports from the US, including ethane, polyethylene (PE) and styrene polymers, from tariffs, according to an unofficial document obtained by ICIS on Friday. Based on the document titled "First Batch List of Reciprocal Tariff Exempted Commodities", ethane, other acyclic hydrocarbons, linear low-density PE (LLDPE) imports from the US, will be exempted from China’s announced additional 125% levies. Other proposed exemptions are PE, ethylene polymers and styrene polymers in their primary shapes. The itemized list has 131 products, including drugs, vaccines, motors and some electronic components. The list, which started making rounds in the Chinese markets late on 24 April, could not be confirmed with China Customs at the time of writing. Additional reporting by Fanny Zhang Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

25-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Two fatty alcohol plants in Selangor in the western coast of Malaysia are shut for nearly a month due to disruption of gas supply caused by a pipeline fire in the area on 1 April, market sources said on Friday. Edenor Technology’s 80,000 tonne/year fatty alcohol plant and KLK OLEO's 300,000 tonne/year plant suffered unplanned outages because of the incident, they said. According to gas distributor Gas Malaysia Energy Services (GMES), gas supplies to a total of 192 plants in Selangor were cut off after a blaze raged at PETRONAS Gas Bhd’s (PGB) main pipeline near Putra Heights for more than seven hours on 1 April, Edenor Technology, in a letter to its clients dated 22 April obtained by ICIS, said that the push-back of gas supply restoration in Selangor “has further affected our production facility in Telok Panglima Garang … and it will lead to further delays in some of our upcoming deliveries”. Edenor stated that gas distributor GMES indicated that full restoration of natural gas supply will be delayed to 1 July from an earlier estimate of 20 April. Meanwhile, KLK OLEO, the oleochemicals manufacturing division of Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK), has yet to respond to ICIS’ queries on the issue at the time of writing.

25-Apr-2025

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Two oil refineries will be built in India as part of Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investment pledged to the south Asian nation which would cover cooperation in multiple areas, including energy and petrochemicals. High-level joint task force finalizes plans for joint cooperation in multiple sectors Both countries to develop supply chains, projects linked to energy sector Green hydrogen infrastructure collaboration plans on The projects, which will be built in partnership with the Indian government, and agreements to enhance cooperation with the world’s biggest crude exporter across various industries were announced on 22 April, during a state visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Saudi Arabia. Collaborations are also planned in the pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, technology, fintech, digital infrastructure, telecommunications, manufacturing and health sectors, among others, according to a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) of India on 23 April. In 2023, the two countries agreed to set up a joint committee to expedite Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investments in India which was announced in February 2019. A high-level task force set up by the two countries has now finalised plans in multiple areas which will allow both countries to begin work soon, the PMO stated. The countries will also work towards developing supply chains and projects linked to the energy sector, it added. The two nations have agreed to enhance cooperation in the supply of crude oil and its derivatives, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the government statement said, adding that collaborations in the field of green hydrogen, including developing hydrogen transport and storage technologies, would also be explored. Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth largest trading partner and is the third largest exporter of crude oil to the south Asian country. In the fiscal year ending March 2024, India’s goods imports from Saudi Arabia stood at $31.4 billion, while exports to the nation were at around $11.6 billion, official data showed. Its major exports to Saudi Arabia include petroleum products, engineering goods, rice, chemicals, textiles, food products while imports from Saudi include crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), fertilisers, chemicals, plastics, among others. RATNAGIRI MEGA REFINERY PROJECT IN QUESTION About seven years ago, Saudi Arabia signed a deal with Indian refiners to build a mega refinery and petrochemical complex in the west coast of India, but the project hit a snag. The 60 million tonne/year project in the Maharastra state which was estimated to cost $44 billion to build was supposed to be commissioned by 2022, faced delays due to land acquisition problems. Opposition to the project continues and there has been no breakthrough in discussions with villagers in the area. There was no official announcement from the central government on the fate of the proposed Ratnagiri mega-refinery and petrochemical project. Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, in a February 2025 interview at an Indian daily Economic Times, had said that instead of one mega refinery project, three small ones will be built – one in Ratnagiri and the other two will be in two other states in southern India. The refineries will each have a 20 million tonne/year capacity, he said. Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri in January this year announced plans to build smaller refineries at different locations in the country. Focus article by Priya Jestin

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Eni’s chemical business reported an adjusted operating loss of €243 million in the first quarter of 2025 on a continuing downturn in the European chemical sector amid economic headwinds and pressures from US and Asian players, the Italy-headquartered producer said on Thursday. Chemicals € million Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Proforma adjusted EBIT – 334 – 53 Eni's chemicals business is managed by Versalis. Sales of chemical products fell by 7% year on year in the first quarter amid lower demand and plant shutdowns. Plant utilization rates averaged 54% year on year in the first quarter, a 5% drop from the same period last year. Margins remained weak across the board as commodity prices could not offset feedstock and energy input expenses, “due to European headwinds, sluggish economic activity, and competitive pressures from players with better cost structures”, the company said.

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea and Vietnam are stepping up efforts to clamp down on illegal transshipments of goods to the US from third countries, amid US concerns that third-country shipments are being used to circumvent tariffs imposed on China. The Korea Customs Service has established an investigation team to crack down on illegal transshipments to align with US tariff policies, it said in a statement on 21 April. 145% tariffs on China by the US has led to suppliers seeking to move trade elsewhere, but cases of origin fraud were detected South Korea. The agency identified multiple cases where Chinese goods were transshipped through South Korea, falsely labeled as Korean-made, and exported to the US to evade high tariffs, including anti-dumping duties, the statement said. It highlighted 75% of detected cases in early 2025 involving exports to the US, with a focus on high-value goods, particularly batteries and raw materials, used in production and export. One highlighted case involved a Chinese-established company in South Korea for the import of 1.2 million Chinese-made batteries, valued at Korean won (W) 74 billion that were falsely labelled as Korean-made. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) issued a directive on 15 April focusing on strengthening the management of goods’ origin to counter fraud and protect the country’s reputation as an exporter, the government website reported. It highlighted more stringent checks at customs to comply with free trade agreement (FTA) origin criteria, maintain trade benefits, and avoid anti-dumping or anti-subsidy investigations. Strict penalties will be issued to those that attempt to circumvent tariffs via illegal transshipments and origin fraud, the directive stated. Vietnam has been slapped with 46% “reciprocal” tariffs by the Trump administration, while South Korea received 25% tariffs, with both currently paused until early July. Both countries are currently engaging in urgent talks with US trade representatives as the tariffs threaten to harm global economic growth significantly. South Korea’s GDP contracted by 0.1% year on year in the first three months of 2025 amid political chaos and a trade war between the US and China, the Bank of Korea (BoK) said on Thursday. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's economy shrank by 0.1% year on year in the first quarter as domestic consumption remained in the doldrums amid a prolonged political crisis, while exports fell on US tariffs, central bank data showed on Thursday. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first three months of 2025, shrinking for the first time since Q2 2024, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a statement. Goods exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy slipped by 0.8% year on year in the first quarter, reversing the 2.6% growth in Q4 2024. Latest data for the first 20 days of April point to further weakness for South Korea's exports, falling by 5.2% year on year. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene, toluene, and styrene. Private consumption, accounting for roughly half of the country's GDP, increased by 0.9% year over year in the first quarter, lower than the 1.6% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. Manufacturing expanded at a slower pace of 0.4% year on year in the first quarter, from the 2.2% growth in the last three months of 2024. South Korea's economy is facing headwinds on multiple fronts. The country is still reeling from the political chaos triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise martial law declaration on 3 December, which lasted just a few hours, and ultimately led to his removal from office on 4 April. South Korea will hold a snap election on 3 June to replace Yoon after the country’s Constitutional Court unanimously upheld a decision by the legislature to impeach Yoon. The trade-dependent economy is also grappling with the impact of the US' broad tariff scheme. A 25% US reciprocal tariff announced for South Korea that was supposed to take effect on 9 April was suspended by US President Donald Trump for 90 days. During this temporary suspension, South Korea is subject to the 10% baseline tariff and its auto industry remains affected by a 25% tariff on automobiles, which is separate from the reciprocal tariff and not paused. The central bank forecasts a slower GDP growth of 1.5% for South Korea this year, after posting a 2.0% growth in 2024. BoK governor Rhee Chang-yong on 17 April, however, said that the growth forecast might still be too optimistic, citing Trump's tariff policy and its sectoral tariffs, as well as levies on China, which is South Korea’s biggest market. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At a container pier in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan on 1 November 2023.(YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

24-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fitch Ratings lowered its global automotive sector outlook to “deteriorating” from “neutral”, and lowered its US sales forecast by 6.7% to 15.2 million from 16.3 million because of US tariffs on auto imports. “Tariffs are likely to lead to production cuts and increased costs, potentially driving issuers’ profitability,” the ratings agency said. On 26 March, the US imposed a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and certain auto parts, which went into effect on 2 April despite a 90-day delay on other announced tariffs. “This measure poses a significant risk for automakers importing vehicles manufactured in Mexico, Canada, Japan, Korea and Germany to the US,” Fitch said. Patrick Manzi, chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), said that if tariffs go into effect as planned, he expects vehicle prices to increase, sales to decrease, and production to fall – although the degree is difficult to quantify. US March sales of new light vehicles jumped 11% on a seasonally adjusted basis from February as buyers rushed to make purchases ahead of the automotive tariffs. ICIS senior economist for global chemicals Kevin Swift said the surge was likely from consumers and fleet owners pulling forward purchases to beat the new tariffs. Some respondents in the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book agreed with Swift’s assessment. Some auto dealers in the Cleveland Fed region reported that the threat of tariffs drove customers to make purchases before potential price increases. “Several retailers had difficulty forecasting the impacts of policy and economic uncertainty on consumer demand, and they worried that consumer spending would pull back further,” the Cleveland Fed said. The Beige Book is a summary of US economic activity during the past six weeks among the 12 Federal Reserve districts with data for the most recent report collected before 14 April. Fitch’s action comes just after the ratings agency cut its GDP growth assumptions for the US by 0.4 percentage points in March and a further 0.5 percentage points more recently in a special update to its quarterly outlook. “Although we expect direct tariff implications to vary among automakers, depending on their production footprint, pricing power and supply chain configuration, no issuer will be fully immune to declining consumer confidence and lower automotive demand,” Fitch said. Fitch expects global automakers to increase selling prices to account for the tariffs, with some that are unable to raise prices sufficiently making “painful adjustments” to production and sales plans. AUTO PARTS SUPPLY CHAINS Fitch said impacts of tariffs on auto parts suppliers are less transparent because of complexities in their supply chains, including productions hits from delays. This impact will be partially offset as tariffs are currently delayed for imports that are compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. Fitch estimates that about 60% of auto parts are USMCA-compliant. Tariff-related uncertainties may lead to fluctuations in production volumes, which could weigh on chemicals demand. CHEMS USED IN AUTOS Demand for chemicals in auto production comes from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, plastic dashboards and other components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery fibers, coatings and adhesives, Swift said. Virtually every component of a light vehicle, from the front bumper to the rear taillights, features some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. EVs and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for EVs. Visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail image shows autos on a lot in Colorado. Photo by David Zalubowski/AP/Shutterstock

23-Apr-2025