Energy

Navigating the energy transition in a strategic and sustainable way

Harness the power of connected

commodity markets


In the unfolding energy transition, the desire to meet climate goals must be balanced with commercial objectives and the need for secure supply. Empower your business and support the transition to greener energy with a transparent view of today’s interconnected and unpredictable energy markets.

Build resilient strategies with instant access to reliable pricing, supply and demand data for both established and emerging energy markets. Comprehensive news, analysis and market outlooks for the short, medium and long term help you understand markets as diverse as natural gas, LNG, power including wind and solar, crude oil, refined products, carbon, hydrogen and ammonia.

Make sense of the changing regulatory and policy landscape with direct access to a team of 100 energy experts.

ICIS’ industry-leading data and analytics are accessible through a range of channels. Set your business up for success with tailored data delivered through our subscriber platform, ICIS ClarityTM or through our Data as a Service (DaaS) solutions. Gain a full view of the energy value chain with customised solutions that integrate ICIS data into your workflows via your existing data solution provider.

Make decisions that matter, when they matter.

Get the latest commodity news and analysis instantly, effortlessly and reliably with AI-powered commodity insights from Ask ICIS.

Energy commodities we cover

With over 10,000 market insights every year, ICIS offers a global perspective on interconnected energy markets, referencing weather, shipping, chemicals, fertilizers and more. To learn more about the solutions we offer for each of the commodities below, please click on the relevant link.

Crude oil & refined products

Remodel for success in the changing energy landscape with reliable supply, demand and trade flow data.

Natural gas

Optimise performance with ICIS data, used by the majority of gas market participants as their preferred reference for the most liquid European benchmark (TTF).

LNG (Liquefied natural gas)

Capitalise on opportunity with ICIS’ industry-leading integrated LNG analytics solution featuring live cargo tracking.

Power & renewables

Inform your decision-making with reliable short, medium and long-term power forecasts and expert analysis of policy, regulation and macroeconomic impact.

Carbon

Understand the evolving European carbon landscape and reduce carbon price exposure with ICIS, the leader in carbon market intelligence.

Hydrogen

Lead the way to a traded hydrogen market with trusted, data-driven analysis of market-forming activities and unrivalled interactive analytics.

ICIS Energy Foresight podcast

Hear an expert view on the longer term trends impacting energy markets.

ICIS Hydrogen Insights podcast

Hear ICIS experts discuss key trends shaping global hydrogen markets including regulation, policy, supply/demand and production costs.

2025 is set to be another dynamic and challenging year for global chemical and energy markets. Explore ICIS predictions for the trends that will have the largest impact.

Energy solutions

Set your business up for success with ICIS’ complete range of market intelligence, data services and analytics solutions for energy. Visit Sectors to see how we can help you stay one step ahead.

Minimise risk and preserve margins

Remain competitive with reliable, up-to-date price forecasts, supply and demand, cost and margin data.

Adapt quickly as events unfold

Capitalise on opportunity and minimise exposure, with news and in-depth analysis of the key events impacting energy markets.

Maximise profitability in volatile markets

Benefit from a complete view of energy markets with integrated solutions featuring pricing, market commentary, in-depth analysis and analytics.

Model with accuracy

Optimise results with ICIS data seamlessly integrated into your workflows and processes.

Energy news

PODCAST: Look ahead to ICIS PET Value Chain Conference

LONDON (ICIS)–Senior editor, recycling Matt Tudball talks to Helen McGeough, global recycling analytics team lead about some of the key topics that will be discussed at the upcoming ICIS PET Value Chain Conference on 6-7 March in Amsterdam. Topics include: Improving the supply chain for recycled PET Getting access to good-quality feedstocks Deposit return schemes (DRS) growing in Europe Impact of high feedstocks on R-PET prices Spreads between virgin PET and R-PET

05-Feb-2025

Brazil’s Unigel appoints Dario Gaeta as CEO after debt restructuring greenlit

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazilian chemicals producer Unigel has concluded its debt restructuring process worth Brazilian reais (R) 5.1 billion ($885 million) after a Sao Paulo business court greenlit the plans drawn up by creditors. Unigel said it would be able to deleverage its debts by around 50% with the restructuring process’ conversion of R5.1 billion of existing debt into new financial instruments. The restructuring puts an end to the decades-long private ownership of Unigel in the hands of its founder, 88-year-old Henri Armand Szlezynger. “The execution of the RE [restructuring] Plan marks a pivotal transition in Unigel’s governance framework, with Option A [main] Creditors now holding a 50% stake in the company’s equity structure,” said Unigel. The new majority owners headhunted for the CEO position the Brazilian executive Dario Gaeta, with decades of experience at industrial and agricultural companies. Up to 2024, he was chief operating officer at ethanol producer Atvos and, prior to that, he was the CEO at Tiete Agroindustrial, another company in the sugar and ethanol sector, according to Gaeta’s LinkedIn profile. Former CEO Roberto Noronha has been demoted to board member, and the vice president who has overseen the restructuring, Daniel Zilberknop, an old name in Unigel, has been appointed chairman of the board. Unigel’s new board composition Position Name Representative Chairman of the Board Daniel Zilberknop Independent CEO Dario Gaeta Not provided Board Member Marc Buckingham Szlezynger Cigel Board Member Roberto Noronha Santos Cigel Board Member Pedro Wongtschowski Cigel Board Member Fabio de Barros Pinheiro Creditors Board Member Kofi William Bentsi-Enchill Creditors Board Member Gregorio Mario Charnas Creditors The restructuring plan also signals an exit from the fertilizers sector, as already outlined at the beginning of the restructuring process by creditors. High prices for natural gas – fertilizers’ main feedstock – was the main cause for that part of the business to start faltering, dragging the rest behind it in the end. Some plants which were leased to Unigel by Brazil’s state-owned energy major Petrobras are reportedly on course to return under Petrobras’ umbrella, even if Unigel may continue operating them. Unigel, then, is to remain mostly what it was before it ventured into fertilizers and was caught up in a major sector downturn. The company mostly produces styrenics and acrylics. For products and capacities, see bottom table. SULPHURIC ACID PLANTEarlier in January, Unigel presented plans to finish construction of its sulphuric acid plant in the state of Bahia, which had been paused as the company's financial woes increased. Unigel said it would invest $36.8 million to finish up the plant in Camacari, aiming to start it up by September. Production capacities were not disclosed. When fully functioning, the plant will allow Unigel to reduce its acid purchases in the open market. Acid is a key chemical used in many other chemical and industrial processes. Jonathan Szwarc, head of Latin America credit research at data firm specializing in leveraged capital markets Debtwire, who covered Unigel in the past, said by reducing its dependency on imports the sulphuric acid plant was a sound project from which Unigel’s could start building up its recovery. “The numbers for that project are sound. From my time covering Unigel, I remember the return on investment was expected to be very healthy: in up to four years, the company expects to have paid off the investment, such are the large amounts of acid it has to purchase in the open market,” said Szwarc. Earlier this month, Unigel also presented, for the first time in several quarters, a financial forecast for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) up to 2030. The company has not published any financial results since 2023, a provision contemplated under Brazilian corporate law for companies in financial distress. For 2025, Unigel said it expected upsides coming from a 5% increase in Brazil’s styrene import tariff ($4 million positive contribution) and a higher rate in the REIQ tax benefit system for chemicals companies ($14 million). According to Unigel, its EBITDA could rise to $182 million by 2030. Unigel forecasts 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 EBITDA (in $ million) 49 142 164 176 173 182 Whether Unigel’s medium-term forecasts are realized remains to the seen, as it ultimately is a company in very deep financial distress for the past year and a half, operating in a market – petrochemicals – which is going through one of the longest sector’s downturns. “2030 is indeed quite a long forecast on this occasion. But, of course, for a judge to approve your restructuring plan you must present some sort of credible plan: detailed forecasts on financials, on spreads, on production…” said Szwarc. “Whether those forecasts end up realized, that’s another matter. But as we say in this world – an Excel [spreadsheet] can withstand almost anything,” he concluded, ironically. ($1 = R5.76) Additional information by Yashas Mudumbai Focus article by Jonathan Lopez 

04-Feb-2025

UPDATE: China retaliates with 15% tariff on US LNG

UPDATE: China retaliates with 15% tariff on US LNG SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has announced a 15% tariff to be imposed on coal and LNG imports from the United States as a retaliation to US trade tariffs, the country’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. “In accordance with the Tariff Law of the People’s Republic of China, the Customs Law of the People’s Republic of China, the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China and other laws and regulations and the basic principles of international law, and with the approval of the State Council, additional tariffs will be imposed on some imported goods originating from the United States starting from 10 February 2025.” A 10% tariff will also be imposed on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and a score of other products. US president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to talk this week on trade and other issues. The US has imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese goods starting 4 February. “This will drive even more US volumes into Europe, and leave portfolio players with suboptimal logistical flows,” said Saul Kavonic, oil and gas analyst with research firm MST Marquee. “Chinese buyers will pay the tariffs, so will be trying to minimize the US volumes they take contractually, and swap that out for non-US volumes. This benefits other regional producers such as Australia, who will be seen as relatively more reliable after this. “The negative impact on US LNG from these tariffs will only partly offset the strong appetite from other buyers to procure more US LNG under pressure from Trump to rebalance trade deficits. The tariffs will create material market inefficiencies, which will benefit some LNG traders in the regions. It may push prices higher everywhere on the margin, as flows become suboptimal.” CHINA IMPORTS China imported 4.4 million tonnes of LNG from the United States in 2024, ICIS data shows, out of a total of 79.24 million tonnes. If the tariff is enforced and stays beyond the upcoming negotiations expected this week between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, importers could optimize the US-based positions by diverting them elsewhere. However, the imposition of tariffs on energy by the Chinese government fundamentally means higher energy costs for the country, which increases the cost of industrial production and inflationary pressure. The growing tensions in the commercial relationship between the countries could also equate to reluctance by Chinese buyers to commit to new long-term positions with US-based suppliers. Political tensions with the US could turn Chinese buyers to alternative sources of LNG and pipeline gas, including Russia. The move is the latest in a series of tariff exchanges that so far have involved Canada and Mexico in addition to China. The market anticipates that the next wave of tariffs could target members of the European Union. EU states are unlikely to impose retaliatory tariffs on imported energy, as the cost of gas is already growing following the halt of Russian pipeline gas supplies to the region. Roman Kazmin

04-Feb-2025

India to roll out 20% ethanol-blended fuel by March

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is set to roll out a 20% ethanol-blended (E20) fuel mandate by March – about nine months ahead of schedule – as there will be enough availability of the environment-friendly additive in the domestic market without endangering sugar production. 2.5% price hike for C-heavy molasses to deter feedstock diversion away from sugar Rice feedstock prices reduced to boost production Auto companies to soon launch 100% ethanol vehicles For the year ending October 2025, the Indian government has approved on 29 January a 2.5% hike in the procurement price of ethanol made from C-heavy molasses, which contain the least sugar among three types of available sugarcane feedstock. India’s ethanol supply year (ESY) is from November to October. The price adjustment acts as an incentive for producers to use the C-heavy feedstock to make ethanol, instead of the A and B molasses that typically go into sugar production. Domestic oil manufacturing companies (OMC) such as Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) will now have to pay a higher price for ethanol made from C-heavy molasses. The government-determined ethanol price was last revised in November 2022. Meanwhile, to further encourage ethanol production, the government on17 January 2025 reduced the price of rice feedstock by more than 24% to Rs22.50/kilogram (kg) amid a surplus. Rice and maize are alternative feedstocks for ethanol production. This decision has helped to make ethanol produced from rice feedstock more economically viable, Grain Ethanol Manufacturers Association (GEMA) treasurer Abhinav Singal said. The government had banned the use of rice as feedstock for ethanol production from July 2023 to August 2024. Notwithstanding the lifting of the ban, ethanol producers were still finding rice prices too high to make production economically viable. “Stability in feed prices will boost ethanol production from rice. The earlier rate was unviable for the units,” Singal said. Nearly 65% of the ethanol produced in the country is sourced from sugarcane while the remaining 35% comes from grains, including maize and rice. India will achieve 20% blending of ethanol in gasoline in the next two months and will soon be able to blend more than 20% ethanol in gasoline if the need arises, India’s petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri said at the Auto Expo 2025 on 21 January. In 2023-24, there was a phased roll-out of 20% ethanol in select outlets across the country, with full implementation initially targeted by 2030. The target full implementation was brought forward to 2025-26 as ethanol availability is now assured following a series of measures taken over the past two years, industry sources said. “We have increased ethanol blending in fuel from 1.5% per cent in 2014 to 10% in May 2022, which was well ahead of the November 2022 deadline and now the target of 20% blending has also moved forward significantly,” he added. “Our current distillation capacity, which is at about 16.83 billion litres, is projected to cross 17 billion litres, and will leave us with ample opportunity to blend beyond 20%,” he added. India achieved ethanol blending of 18.2% in gasoline in December 2024, official data show. The government is currently working on a plan to bring down retail prices of ethanol for use as fuel in vehicles with flexible fuel engines, India’s road transport and highways minister Nitin Gadkari said at the Sugar-Ethanol and Bio Energy India Conference on 30 January. Around nine companies in India will soon be launching cars and two-wheelers that run on 100% ethanol, he added. Major automobile manufacturers, including Mahindra & Mahindra, Toyota, Hyundai, and Tata, will introduce 100% ethanol-powered vehicles over the next five months, with two-wheeler makers also adopting the technology, he said. Focus article by Priya Jestin ($1 = Rs87.08)

04-Feb-2025

Japan's Sumitomo Chemical cuts stake in Sumitomo Bakelite

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan's Sumitomo Chemical has sold a portion of its stake in specialty chemicals producer Sumitomo Bakelite as part of a broader plan to enhance its financial performance through asset sales. Sumitomo Chemical on 4 February said that it has sold around 5.25 million shares of Sumitomo Bakelite for around yen (Y) 19.1 billion ($123 million), the Japanese producer said on Tuesday. Sumitomo Bakelite produces a range of chemical products, including phenolic, epoxy and polyimide resins, as well as other specialty chemicals. The stake sale reduced Sumitomo Chemical’s stake in the specialty chemicals producer to 10.6% from 15.6% previously. Sumitomo Chemical expects a one-time gain of around Y17.7 billion from the sale in its non-consolidated financial results for the year ending 31 March 2025. "Sumitomo Chemical is implementing its short-term intensive performance improvement measures aimed at ensuring a V-shaped recovery in fiscal 2024 and strengthening its financial position to lay the groundwork for future fundamental structural reforms," the company said. On 3 February, the company announced that it will be divesting 66.6% of its share in wholly-owned subsidiary Sumitomo Chemical Engineering Co (SCEC) by 31 March to Japan's JFE Engineering Corp for an undisclosed fee. Sumitomo Chemical will retain a 33.4% stake in SCEC following the sale. "SCEC will maintain a good relationship with the Sumitomo Chemical Group as it works to maximize its synergies with the JFE Group," the company said. SCEC provides engineering, procurement, construction, operation and maintenance services for environmental facilities, energy facilities, including liquified natural gas stations and renewable energy plants, as well as chemical plants. In the nine months to 31 December 2024, Sumitomo Chemical swung into a net profit on improved selling prices at its core essential and green materials segment, the Japanese producer said on 3 February. in Japanese yen (Y) billions Apr-Dec 2024 Apr-Dec 2023 % Change Sales 1,904.8 1,806.9 5.4 Operating income 145.4 -160.6 Net income 28.6 -109.8 The company's selling prices for synthetic resins, methyl methacrylate, and industrial chemicals rose due to higher raw material costs during the period. However, aluminum shipments declined following the group's exit from the business, resulting in a ¥8.8 billion decrease in essential and green materials sales revenue to Y672.9 billion. Despite this, the segment trimmed its core operating loss by Y16.2 billion to Y44.3 billion, aided by better market conditions, although the financial performance of its 37.5%-owned Saudi chemical producer Petro Rabigh deteriorated. Saudi Aramco owns 62.5% of Petro Rabigh. MANAGEMENT CHANGES Sumitomo Chemical on 3 February announced that Nobuaki Mito, the company's senior managing executive officer, will take over as the company's new president. Mito is expected to be inaugurated as representative director and president of Sumitomo Chemical in June this year, while incumbent president, Keiichi Iwata, will become chairman. ($1 = Y155.20)

04-Feb-2025

CORRECTED: INSIGHT: US tariffs unleash higher costs to nation's chem industry

Correction: In the ICIS story headlined “INSIGHT: US tariffs unleash higher costs to nation's chem industry” dated 3 February 2025, the wrong volumes were used for the following imports: Canadian ethylene-alpha-olefin copolymers, having a specific gravity of less than 0.94; Canadian polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or more, in primary forms; Canadian polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94, in primary forms; Canadian polypropylene, in primary forms; Canadian mixed xylene isomers; Mexican polypropylene, in primary forms; and Mexican cyclohexane. The US did not import cyclohexane from Mexico in 2023. A corrected story follows. HOUSTON (ICIS)–The tariffs that the US will impose on all imports from Canada, Mexico and China will unleash higher costs for the nation's chemical industry, create supply-chain snarls and open it to retaliation. For Canada, the US will impose 10% tariffs on imports of energy and 25% tariffs on all other imports. For Mexico, the US imposed 25% tariffs on all imports but the countries' presidents said on Monday the tariffs are being paused for a month. For China, the US will impose 10% tariffs on all imports. US IMPORTS LARGE AMOUNTS OF PE FROM CANADAUS petrochemical production is concentrated along its Gulf Coast, which is far from many of its manufacturing hubs in the northeastern and midwestern parts of the country. As a result, individual states import large amounts of polyethylene (PE) from Canada – even though the nation as a whole has a large surplus of the material. Even Texas imports large amounts of PE from Canada – despite its abundance of plants that produce the polymer. In addition, polyester plants in North and South Carolina import large amounts of the feedstocks monoethylene glycol (MEG) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) from Canada. The US as a whole imports significant amounts of polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) from Canada – again, despite its surplus of these plastics. The following table lists some of the main plastics and chemicals that the US imported from Canada in 2023. The products are organized by their harmonized tariff schedule (HTS) code. HTS PRODUCT MEASUREMENT VOLUMES 3901.40.00 Ethylene-alpha-olefin copolymers, having a specific gravity of less than 0.94 kilograms 1,319,817,405 3901.20.50 Polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or more, in primary forms kilograms 1,088,071,523 3901.10.50 Polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94, in primary forms kilograms 420,561,390 2917.36.00 Terephthalic acid and its salts kilograms 407,710,439 2905.31.00 Ethylene Glycol kilograms 329,542,378 3902.10.00 Polypropylene, in primary forms kilograms 271,201,880 3904.10.00 Polyvinyl chloride, not mixed with any other substances, in primary forms kilograms 188,800,413 2902.44.00 Mixed xylene isomers liters 746,072 2905.12.00 Propan-1-ol (Propyl alcohol) and Propan-2-ol (isopropyl alcohol) kilograms 87,805,095 3901.30.60 Ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymers kilograms 71,372,396 Source: US International Trade Commission (ITC) IMPORTS FROM MEXICOMexico is not as large of a source of US petrochemical imports as Canada, but shipments from the country are still noteworthy. The following table lists some of the main plastics and chemicals that the US imported from Mexico in 2023. HTS PRODUCT MEASUREMENT VOLUMES 2917.36.00 Terephthalic acid and its salts kilograms 69,230,708 3901.10.50 Polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94, in primary forms kilograms 34,674,435 2915.24.00 Acetic anhydride kilograms 25,294,318 3904.10.00 Polyvinyl chloride, not mixed with any other substances, in primary forms kilograms 24,005,371 2915.31.00 Ethyl acetate kilograms 18,855,544 3901.20.50 Polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or more, in primary forms kilograms 14,469,582 3902.10.00 Polypropylene, in primary forms kilograms 8,849,478 Source: US International Trade Commission (ITC) IMPORTS FROM CHINAChina remains a significant source for a couple of noteworthy chemicals despite the effects of the tariffs that US President Donald Trump imposed during his first term in office. The following table shows 2023 US imports from China. HTS PRODUCT MEASUREMENT VOLUMES 29152100 Acetic acid kilograms 21,095,566 39093100 Poly(methylene phenyl isocyanate) (crude MDI, polymeric MDI) kilograms 206,642,886 Source: US International Trade Commission (ITC) China's shipments of plastics goods are more significant. OIL TARIFFS WILL HIT US REFINERSCanada and Mexico are the largest sources of imported crude oil in the US, and the heavier grades from these countries complement the lighter grades that the US produces in abundance. Those imports help fill out refining units that process heavier crude fractions, such as hydrocrackers, cokers, base oil units and fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units. Refiners cannot swap out heavier Canadian and Mexican grades with lighter US grades. Instead, they will need to pay the tariffs or find another supplier of heavier grades, possibly at a higher cost. The following table shows the largest sources of imported crude in 2023. Figures are listed in thousands of barrels/day. COUNTRY IMPORTS % Canada 3,885 59.9 Mexico 733 11.3 Saudi Arabia 349 5.4 Iraq 213 3.3 Colombia 202 3.1 Total US imports 6,489 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) US refiners could take another hit from higher catalyst costs. These are made from rare earth elements, and China remains a key source. TARIFFS TO RAISE COSTS FOR FERTILIZERCanada is the world's largest producer of potash, and it exports massive amounts to the US. It is unclear how the US could find another source. Russia and Belarus are the world's second and third largest potash producers. Together, the three accounted for 65.9% of global potash production in 2023, according to the Canadian government. Canada accounts for significant shares of other US imports of fertilizers. The following table lists some of Canada's fertilizer shipments to the US in 2023 and shows its share of total US imports. Figures are from 2023. HTS PRODUCT MEASUREMENT VOLUME % 31042000 Potassium chloride metric tonne 11850925 88.8 31023000 Ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution metric tonne 295438 76.6 31024000 Mixtures of ammonium nitrate with calcium carbonate or other inorganic nonfertilizing substances metric tonne 29203 75.7 31055100 Mineral or chemical fertilizers, containing nitrates and phosphates metric tonne 1580 66.1 31022100 Ammonium sulfate metric tonne 947140 49.6 31052000 Mineral or chemical fertilizers, containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium metric tonne 147850 41.4 Source: US ITC SUPPLY CHAIN SNARLSIf US companies choose to avoid the tariffs and seek other suppliers, they could be exposed to delays and supply chain constraints. Other companies outside of the petrochemical, plastic and fertilizer industries will also be seeking new suppliers. The scale of these disruptions could be significant because Canada, Mexico and China are the largest trading partners in the US. The following table lists the top 10 US trading partners in 2023 based on combined imports and exports. Country Total Exports ($) General Imports ($) TOTAL Mexico 322,742,472,406 475,215,965,697 797,958,438,103 Canada 354,355,997,349 418,618,659,183 772,974,656,532 China 147,777,767,493 426,885,009,750 574,662,777,243 Germany 76,697,761,127 159,272,068,221 235,969,829,348 Japan 75,683,130,214 147,238,042,342 222,921,172,556 South Korea 65,056,093,590 116,154,470,335 181,210,563,925 UK 74,315,228,810 64,217,031,774 138,532,260,584 Taiwan 39,956,725,574 87,767,403,487 127,724,129,061 Vietnam 9,842,922,146 114,426,076,081 124,268,998,227 Source: US ITC RETALIATIONUS petrochemical exports would be tempting targets for retaliation because of their magnitude and the global capacity glut. China, in particular, could impose tariffs on US chemical imports and offset the disruptions by increasing rates at under-utilized plants. So far, none announced plans to target chemicals on Sunday. Canada's plans to impose 25% tariffs on $30 billion in US goods does not include oil, refined products, chemicals or plastics. That batch of tariffs will take place on February 4. Canada will impose 25% tariffs on an additional $125 billion worth of US goods following a 21-day comment period, it said. The government did not highlight plastics or chemicals in this second batch of tariffs. Instead, it said the tariffs will cover passenger vehicles and trucks, including electric vehicles, steel and aluminium products, certain fruits and vegetables, aerospace products, beef, pork, dairy, trucks and buses, recreational vehicles and recreational boats. In a statement issued on Sunday, Mexico's president made no mention of retaliatory tariffs. Instead, she said she will provide more details about Mexico's response on Monday. China said it will start legal proceedings through the World Trade Organization (WTO) and take corresponding countermeasures. RATIONALE BEHIND THE TARIFFSThe US imposed the tariffs under the nation's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which gives the president authority to take actions to address a severe national security threat. In a fact sheet, Trump cited illegal immigration and illicit drugs. Saturday's executive order is the first time that a US president imposed tariffs under IEEPA. Prior IEEPA actions lasted an average of nine years. They can be terminated by a vote in Congress. Insight article by Al Greenwood (Thumbnail shows containers, in which goods are commonly shipped. Image by Shutterstock)

03-Feb-2025

Americas top stories: weekly summary

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 31 January. Colombia accepts US terms for migrants’ deportations, fends off 25% tariff threat Colombia became over the weekend the first Latin American country to get a taste of President Donald Trump’s immigration policy mixed with unconventional diplomacy after the country refused landing to two flights with repatriated Colombian migrants. INSIGHT: US tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada would cause massive hit to GDP – ICIS analysis Proposed US tariffs of 25% on all imports from Mexico and Canada would have a massive negative impact to the GDP of the exporting countries and slow US GDP growth as well, according to the ICIS economist. Brazil’s chemicals to slow in 2025 amid currency, fiscal deficit woes – Activas CEO Brazil’s chemicals distribution sector posted healthy activity in 2024 as manufacturing finally gained traction, but conditions are set to worsen in 2025 amid high inflation, high borrowing costs, and a government too prone to spend, according to the CEO at Brazilian chemicals distributor Activas. Dow to face margin pressure in Q1 with no help from macros – execs Dow expects to face sales and margin pressures in Q1 2025 with no improvement in the macro outlook following a difficult Q4, senior executives said. LyondellBasell confident on Q1 PE price gains on cracker downtime, lack of new capacity – execs LyondellBasell expects to see price improvement in North America polyethylene (PE) in Q1 on industry cracker outages and lack of new local capacity starting up, along with higher demand through 2025.

03-Feb-2025

Eurozone Jan inflation up for fourth consecutive month as energy costs rise

LONDON (ICIS)–Inflation in the eurozone rose for the fourth consecutive month in January as energy costs increased sharply from the previous month. Annual inflation rose to 2.5% in the month, up from 2.4% in December 2024, statistics agency Eurostat said in a flash estimate on Monday. Overall annual rate % Oct 24 Nov 24 Dec 24 Jan 25 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 Although the services sector was the main driver for the overall rise, energy costs showed the sharpest increase, rising to 1.8% in January from 0.1% in December. Energy prices had been in contraction from August to December 2024. Energy annual rate % Aug 24 Sept 24 Oct 24 Nov 24 Dec 24 Jan 25 -3.0 -6.1 -4.6 -2.0 0.1 1.8 “Eurozone inflation accelerated moderately in January, as the energy component came in with some renewed pressure. Core components remain stubbornly elevated and show no signs of abating pressure soon,” advisory firm Oxford Economics said in a statement. The European Central Bank (ECB) last week continued its rate-cutting campaign as it grappled with flat economic growth and rising inflation.

03-Feb-2025

INSIGHT: Valuation expectations continue to dog chems M&A dealflow

LONDON (ICIS)–The flow of exits and acquisitions in the chemicals sector continued slow in 2024, as an ongoing misalignment of valuation expectations between buyers and sellers continues to slow the pace of dealmaking. Since the pandemic, it has become substantially more difficult to gauge companies’ future earnings prospects, with performance data from the last five years tougher to compare to earlier periods, and the trajectory of future earnings more opaque. The pandemic era saw the period of widespread shutdowns and lockdowns followed by a huge rebound in demand, particularly for durable goods makers as consumers unable to leave their homes spent their pay on products and home improvement. STRUCTURAL SHIFTS HIT PROSPECTS The period since the pandemic has been an unnaturally long slump, described by LyondellBasell CEO Peter Vanacker last week as “the longest and deepest downturn of my career”, with energy prices and soaring interest rates hitting growth. While we may be nearing the end of that trough, if not this year then next, it remains difficult to gauge future earnings potential. Dow CEO Jim Fitterling noted in late January that some of the demand loss in Europe could be structural and may never come back, and questions remain over whether China economic growth will ever hit the levels expected a few years ago. With half a decade of choppy, unusual economic conditions and little indication of when demand will bounce back and to what extent, it has become much more difficult to assign a price tag for an asset based on future anticipated financial performance. Source: FTI Even including ADNOC’s takeover of Covestro – a €11.7 billion deal that has been agreed but is yet to close – dealflow in 2024 was extremely weak, only marginally up on 2020 and slower than each ensuing year since then. “The challenges in chemical deals stem from a persistent misalignment in valuation expectations between buyers and sellers, driven by atypical post-COVID industry performance and an uncertain outlook,” said consultancy FTI in a recent report on the sector. HIGH PRICES, TOUGH PROSPECTS The issue of seller expectations is complicated further by the fact that many purchases may have been made in the pre-pandemic years, meaning that prices paid may not match up to the reality of demand for some value chains. Private equity has long been a key player in the chemicals M&A market, and many fund managers are trapped between accepting a low or negative return on assets purchased when debt finance was cheap and expectations were higher, or continuing to hang on. This has resulted in holding periods far beyond the usual life cycle of a private equity fund. Traditionally, the sector model has revolved around selling assets three to five years after purchasing them but, with IPO exits difficult and the economic outlook uncertain, hold periods for chemicals firms are ballooning, drawing close to a decade in some cases. The pressure for exits comes alongside pressure from limited partners for private equity players to deploy capital that has accumulated over the last few years. CONDITIONS TO DRIVE DEALFLOW While conditions remain difficult, the need for private equity firms to try and sell businesses and to put capital to work could be a driver of big new investments, either in 2025 or in the near future beyond that. The spate of strategic reviews of European assets and the prevailing economic malaise in the region could also drive deal flow, as companies look to sell sheafs of assets deemed non-core or uncompetitive, and struggling producers look for a life raft. Dow promised progress on its ongoing review of European assets, and LyondellBasell is making progress with its assessments, with potential for several assets to be sold to one buyer, or a few units divested piecemeal. “The European sector, struggling with weak financial performance, might further attract international investors seeking diversification into chemicals,” FTI noted. TURNAROUND PURCHASES The question remains whether assets deemed uncompetitive by global chemicals producers – largely older, energy-intensive, lower-margin chemical plants – would be attractive to financial or institutional buyers. While large multinationals with a strong presence in lower-cost regions such as the US Gulf Coast and a desire to cut costs may not want to put in the time and money to make such units viable, private equity firms may. “We believe that hands-on private equity funds with operational value creation expertise may thrive in this market environment,” FTI said. “Private equity is likely to implement its performance improvement playbooks, but may also explore partnerships with strategic industry players.” Despite numerous indicators that dealflow will pick up in the mid-term, that question of buyer-seller expectations remains a difficult one. Private equity firms promise their investors above-market returns, and firms that purchased assets at the top of the market in the pre-pandemic era face a bitter pill when looking to sell them off in a low-growth, high financing cost environment. In the case of the Covestro deal, the purchase price represents a multiple of nearly 11 times 2023 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a substantial sum. Compared to the company’s mid-cycle earnings target of €2.8 billion, the takeover price multiple dwindles to around five times EBITDA. Covestro’s EBITDA stood at €3.44 billion in 2017, €3.2 billion in 2018, and €1.6 billion in 2019, before rebounding to €3.1 billion in 2021. Earnings fell to €1.62 billion in 2022 and €1.08 billion in 2023, with expectations for last year standing between €1bn and €1.4 billion. This underlines the shift that occurred once energy prices in Europe started to intensify in the wake of the Ukraine war. While those target mid-cycle EBITDA levels may indeed come around again, the question remains as to when, or if, as Fitterling said, structural demand shifts mean Europe never fully bounces back? With no expectation of a V- or even U-shaped recovery once demand does start to pick up, sellers adjusting expectations to the new realities may be the only way to ever exit businesses. Insight by Tom Brown

03-Feb-2025

Samsung A&E bags $1.7bn deal to build UAE's first methanol plant

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Abu Dhabi Chemicals Derivatives Co (TA’ZIZ) said on Monday it has awarded South Korea’s engineering firm Samsung E&A a $1.7 billion contract to build the first methanol plant in the UAE, which is slated to be completed in 2028. The plant, to be built in Al Ruwais Industrial City in western Abu Dhabi, will have a capacity of 1.8 million tonnes/year, TA’ZIZ said in a statement posted on the website of its parent firm Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC). TA’ZIZ is a joint venture (JV) between ADNOC and sovereign wealth fund ADQ. Samsung A&E was formerly known as Samsung Engineering. “The [methanol] plant will enhance the UAE’s position as a leader in sustainable chemicals production and strengthen TA’ZIZ’s role in enabling ADNOC’s global ambition to lead the chemicals sector,” TA’ZIZ CEO Mashal Saoud Al Kindi said. The company said that the plant will be "powered by clean energy from the grid, making it one of the world’s most energy-efficient methanol plants". Set up in 2020 to develop industrial projects and diversify the economy away from oil in the UAE, TA'ZIZ is expected to produce 4.7 million tonnes/year of chemicals by 2028 in its initial phase, including methanol, low-carbon ammonia, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and caustic soda. Several of these chemicals will be produced for the first time in the UAE. ADNOC is moving in the specialty chemical space as part of its growth. On 1 February, ADNOC announced that it is in talks with Austrian petrochemical firm OMV to acquire Canada's Nova Chemicals from Mubadala, another Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund. If the acquisition goes through, a new global polyolefins group combining Nova Chemicals, Borealis, and Borouge will be formed, it said. Borealis is a 75:25 joint venture between OMV and ADNOC, while Borouge is jointly owned by ADNOC (54%) and Borealis (36%).

03-Feb-2025

ICIS Energy Foresight

Identify new opportunities with an integrated analytics solution that combines reliable, quantitative data and expert analysis.

“Our initial experience of the Gas/Power Foresight applications is very positive. I believe they will greatly enhance our forecasting capabilities, risk management, and also our credibility with customers who recognise ICIS as one of the leading independent providers of market information. Many thanks to Krithi for her help and perseverance in arranging everything.”

Senior Energy Market Analyst, West Mercia Energy

Energy experts

Alice Casagni, European Spot Gas Editor

Alice’s specialist expertise lies in the gas pricing methodology that underpins ICIS gas assessments and indices, for which she is responsible. Alice joined ICIS in 2016 covering European gas markets including Italy and the Netherlands.

Ed Cox, Global LNG Editor

Ed manages the ICIS global LNG editorial team, analysing LNG markets at a granular level, from individual cargoes to broader trade flows and global trends. Ed joined the ICIS LNG team in 2014, prior to which he led ICIS European gas coverage.

Alex Froley, Senior LNG Analyst

Alex is a specialist in European gas and LNG, publishing regular commentary on LNG market trends. His team maintains and develops market fundamentals data on the ICIS LNG Edge platform, including real-time ship-tracking and import/export trade flows.

Barney Gray, Global Crude Oil Editor

Barney specialises in upstream oil and gas Exploration & Production and valuation modelling, with an extensive industry network. His role encompasses price discovery and insight, including managing ICIS tri-daily World Crude Report.

Aura Sabadus, Energy and Cross-Commodity Specialist

Aura works to develop integrated ICIS coverage of energy, petrochemicals and fertilizer markets, explaining the impact of energy price movements on energy-dependent sectors. She also covers emerging gas markets including the Black Sea region. ​

Jake Stones, Global Hydrogen Editor

Jake leads on price discovery for hydrogen as a tradeable commodity, engaging with European energy market participants to refine ICIS’ hydrogen pricing methodology. ​Jake joined ICIS in 2019 as a UK gas market reporter, moving to hydrogen in 2020.

Matt Jones, Head of Power Analysis

Matt overseas the output of ICIS’ power team across 28 European markets, from short-term developments to long-term forecasting out to 2050. ​He provides quantitative and qualitative analysis, with particular focus on EU regulatory developments.

Lewis Unstead, Senior Analyst, EU Carbon

Lewis is an expert on EU and UK ETS legislation and market design, regularly advising ETS compliance players and market regulators. He manages ICIS‘ weekly and monthly carbon commentary, analysing carbon’s interplay with wider energy markets.

Andreas Schroeder, Head of Energy Analytics

Andreas is responsible for quantitative modelling and data-based analysis products within ICIS’ energy offer, covering carbon, power, gas, LNG and hydrogen. His expertise lies in energy economics, focusing on traded energy commodities.

Matteo Mazzoni, Director of Energy Analytics

Matteo has extensive analytics expertise in power, gas, carbon and energy planning. Matteo has responsibility for ICIS energy analytics strategy and operations including research and analysis, product ideation and development, and market engagement.​

Jamie Stewart, Managing Editor, Energy

Jamie manages ICIS’ 50-strong energy editorial team, covering European gas, power and hydrogen markets alongside global LNG and crude oil. Jamie is responsible for ICIS’ coverage of energy news, analysis, price assessments and indices.

Contact us

In today’s dynamic and interconnected energy markets, partnering with ICIS unlocks a vision of a future you can trust and achieve. Our unrivalled network of energy industry experts delivers a comprehensive market view based on trusted data, insight and analytics, supporting our partners as they transact today and plan for tomorrow.

Get in touch to find out more.

READ MORE