Energy

MUMBAI (ICIS)–Two oil refineries will be built in India as part of Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investment pledged to the south Asian nation which would cover cooperation in multiple areas, including energy and petrochemicals. High-level joint task force finalizes plans for joint cooperation in multiple sectors Both countries to develop supply chains, projects linked to energy sector Green hydrogen infrastructure collaboration plans on The projects, which will be built in partnership with the Indian government, and agreements to enhance cooperation with the world’s biggest crude exporter across various industries were announced on 22 April, during a state visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Saudi Arabia. Collaborations are also planned in the pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, technology, fintech, digital infrastructure, telecommunications, manufacturing and health sectors, among others, according to a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) of India on 23 April. In 2023, the two countries agreed to set up a joint committee to expedite Saudi Arabia’s $100-billion investments in India which was announced in February 2019. A high-level task force set up by the two countries has now finalised plans in multiple areas which will allow both countries to begin work soon, the PMO stated. The countries will also work towards developing supply chains and projects linked to the energy sector, it added. The two nations have agreed to enhance cooperation in the supply of crude oil and its derivatives, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the government statement said, adding that collaborations in the field of green hydrogen, including developing hydrogen transport and storage technologies, would also be explored. Saudi Arabia is India’s fourth largest trading partner and is the third largest exporter of crude oil to the south Asian country. In the fiscal year ending March 2024, India’s goods imports from Saudi Arabia stood at $31.4 billion, while exports to the nation were at around $11.6 billion, official data showed. Its major exports to Saudi Arabia include petroleum products, engineering goods, rice, chemicals, textiles, food products while imports from Saudi include crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), fertilisers, chemicals, plastics, among others. RATNAGIRI MEGA REFINERY PROJECT IN QUESTION About seven years ago, Saudi Arabia signed a deal with Indian refiners to build a mega refinery and petrochemical complex in the west coast of India, but the project hit a snag. The 60 million tonne/year project in the Maharastra state which was estimated to cost $44 billion to build was supposed to be commissioned by 2022, faced delays due to land acquisition problems. Opposition to the project continues and there has been no breakthrough in discussions with villagers in the area. There was no official announcement from the central government on the fate of the proposed Ratnagiri mega-refinery and petrochemical project. Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, in a February 2025 interview at an Indian daily Economic Times, had said that instead of one mega refinery project, three small ones will be built – one in Ratnagiri and the other two will be in two other states in southern India. The refineries will each have a 20 million tonne/year capacity, he said. Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri in January this year announced plans to build smaller refineries at different locations in the country. Focus article by Priya Jestin

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Eni’s chemical business reported an adjusted operating loss of €243 million in the first quarter of 2025 on a continuing downturn in the European chemical sector amid economic headwinds and pressures from US and Asian players, the Italy-headquartered producer said on Thursday. Chemicals € million Q1 2025 Q1 2024 Proforma adjusted EBIT – 334 – 53 Eni's chemicals business is managed by Versalis. Sales of chemical products fell by 7% year on year in the first quarter amid lower demand and plant shutdowns. Plant utilization rates averaged 54% year on year in the first quarter, a 5% drop from the same period last year. Margins remained weak across the board as commodity prices could not offset feedstock and energy input expenses, “due to European headwinds, sluggish economic activity, and competitive pressures from players with better cost structures”, the company said.

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea and Vietnam are stepping up efforts to clamp down on illegal transshipments of goods to the US from third countries, amid US concerns that third-country shipments are being used to circumvent tariffs imposed on China. The Korea Customs Service has established an investigation team to crack down on illegal transshipments to align with US tariff policies, it said in a statement on 21 April. 145% tariffs on China by the US has led to suppliers seeking to move trade elsewhere, but cases of origin fraud were detected South Korea. The agency identified multiple cases where Chinese goods were transshipped through South Korea, falsely labeled as Korean-made, and exported to the US to evade high tariffs, including anti-dumping duties, the statement said. It highlighted 75% of detected cases in early 2025 involving exports to the US, with a focus on high-value goods, particularly batteries and raw materials, used in production and export. One highlighted case involved a Chinese-established company in South Korea for the import of 1.2 million Chinese-made batteries, valued at Korean won (W) 74 billion that were falsely labelled as Korean-made. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) issued a directive on 15 April focusing on strengthening the management of goods’ origin to counter fraud and protect the country’s reputation as an exporter, the government website reported. It highlighted more stringent checks at customs to comply with free trade agreement (FTA) origin criteria, maintain trade benefits, and avoid anti-dumping or anti-subsidy investigations. Strict penalties will be issued to those that attempt to circumvent tariffs via illegal transshipments and origin fraud, the directive stated. Vietnam has been slapped with 46% “reciprocal” tariffs by the Trump administration, while South Korea received 25% tariffs, with both currently paused until early July. Both countries are currently engaging in urgent talks with US trade representatives as the tariffs threaten to harm global economic growth significantly. South Korea’s GDP contracted by 0.1% year on year in the first three months of 2025 amid political chaos and a trade war between the US and China, the Bank of Korea (BoK) said on Thursday. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy

24-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea's economy shrank by 0.1% year on year in the first quarter as domestic consumption remained in the doldrums amid a prolonged political crisis, while exports fell on US tariffs, central bank data showed on Thursday. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first three months of 2025, shrinking for the first time since Q2 2024, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said in a statement. Goods exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy slipped by 0.8% year on year in the first quarter, reversing the 2.6% growth in Q4 2024. Latest data for the first 20 days of April point to further weakness for South Korea's exports, falling by 5.2% year on year. South Korea is a major importer of raw materials like crude oil and naphtha, which it uses to produce a variety of petrochemicals, which are then exported. The country is a major exporter of aromatics such as benzene, toluene, and styrene. Private consumption, accounting for roughly half of the country's GDP, increased by 0.9% year over year in the first quarter, lower than the 1.6% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. Manufacturing expanded at a slower pace of 0.4% year on year in the first quarter, from the 2.2% growth in the last three months of 2024. South Korea's economy is facing headwinds on multiple fronts. The country is still reeling from the political chaos triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise martial law declaration on 3 December, which lasted just a few hours, and ultimately led to his removal from office on 4 April. South Korea will hold a snap election on 3 June to replace Yoon after the country’s Constitutional Court unanimously upheld a decision by the legislature to impeach Yoon. The trade-dependent economy is also grappling with the impact of the US' broad tariff scheme. A 25% US reciprocal tariff announced for South Korea that was supposed to take effect on 9 April was suspended by US President Donald Trump for 90 days. During this temporary suspension, South Korea is subject to the 10% baseline tariff and its auto industry remains affected by a 25% tariff on automobiles, which is separate from the reciprocal tariff and not paused. The central bank forecasts a slower GDP growth of 1.5% for South Korea this year, after posting a 2.0% growth in 2024. BoK governor Rhee Chang-yong on 17 April, however, said that the growth forecast might still be too optimistic, citing Trump's tariff policy and its sectoral tariffs, as well as levies on China, which is South Korea’s biggest market. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At a container pier in South Korea's southeastern port city of Busan on 1 November 2023.(YONHAP/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

24-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fitch Ratings lowered its global automotive sector outlook to “deteriorating” from “neutral”, and lowered its US sales forecast by 6.7% to 15.2 million from 16.3 million because of US tariffs on auto imports. “Tariffs are likely to lead to production cuts and increased costs, potentially driving issuers’ profitability,” the ratings agency said. On 26 March, the US imposed a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and certain auto parts, which went into effect on 2 April despite a 90-day delay on other announced tariffs. “This measure poses a significant risk for automakers importing vehicles manufactured in Mexico, Canada, Japan, Korea and Germany to the US,” Fitch said. Patrick Manzi, chief economist at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), said that if tariffs go into effect as planned, he expects vehicle prices to increase, sales to decrease, and production to fall – although the degree is difficult to quantify. US March sales of new light vehicles jumped 11% on a seasonally adjusted basis from February as buyers rushed to make purchases ahead of the automotive tariffs. ICIS senior economist for global chemicals Kevin Swift said the surge was likely from consumers and fleet owners pulling forward purchases to beat the new tariffs. Some respondents in the US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book agreed with Swift’s assessment. Some auto dealers in the Cleveland Fed region reported that the threat of tariffs drove customers to make purchases before potential price increases. “Several retailers had difficulty forecasting the impacts of policy and economic uncertainty on consumer demand, and they worried that consumer spending would pull back further,” the Cleveland Fed said. The Beige Book is a summary of US economic activity during the past six weeks among the 12 Federal Reserve districts with data for the most recent report collected before 14 April. Fitch’s action comes just after the ratings agency cut its GDP growth assumptions for the US by 0.4 percentage points in March and a further 0.5 percentage points more recently in a special update to its quarterly outlook. “Although we expect direct tariff implications to vary among automakers, depending on their production footprint, pricing power and supply chain configuration, no issuer will be fully immune to declining consumer confidence and lower automotive demand,” Fitch said. Fitch expects global automakers to increase selling prices to account for the tariffs, with some that are unable to raise prices sufficiently making “painful adjustments” to production and sales plans. AUTO PARTS SUPPLY CHAINS Fitch said impacts of tariffs on auto parts suppliers are less transparent because of complexities in their supply chains, including productions hits from delays. This impact will be partially offset as tariffs are currently delayed for imports that are compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. Fitch estimates that about 60% of auto parts are USMCA-compliant. Tariff-related uncertainties may lead to fluctuations in production volumes, which could weigh on chemicals demand. CHEMS USED IN AUTOS Demand for chemicals in auto production comes from, for example, antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, plastic dashboards and other components, rubber tires and hoses, upholstery fibers, coatings and adhesives, Swift said. Virtually every component of a light vehicle, from the front bumper to the rear taillights, features some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. EVs and associated battery markets are an important growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for EVs. Visit the ICIS topic page Automotive: Impact on Chemicals Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail image shows autos on a lot in Colorado. Photo by David Zalubowski/AP/Shutterstock

23-Apr-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Chemicals imports and exports to and from the EU increased in February, according to the latest data released by Eurostat on Wednesday. The segment for chemicals and related products recorded the highest growth  in trade balance of those outlined in February compared to a year prior. While imports rose by 16%, exports increased by more than a third compared to February 2024. Table shows monthly change in €billions compared to the previous year.Source: Eurostat European chemicals producers have been struggling to remain competitive with other regions, due to a complex regulatory landscape and higher energy prices. The increase in exports demonstrates resilient demand for specialised materials made in Europe, especially if those products cannot be manufactured elsewhere. This builds on the growth in January, when the chemicals segment was the only one to record an increase compared to the previous year. Eurostat’s initial estimates is that the overall EU trade balance in goods with the rest of the world stood at a surplus of €23.0 billion in February, compared to €21.8 billion a year prior. Data from Eurostat is subject to revision following publication.

23-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–While the US-led trade war has roiled Asia’s petrochemicals market, sending prices of some on free fall, a selected few products have bucked the trend due to rising feedstock cost and tightening supply, but the support may be temporary amid global economic headwinds. Oxo-alcohols to lead April price gains in April – ICIS forecast Trade war weighs on demand, economic growth China warns countries against striking US trade deals at its expense Spot propylene prices in northeast Asia were tracking gains in feedstock propane as production in China is being curtailed by high cost. About a third of China’s propylene production is produced via the propane dehydrogenation (PDH) route, but imports of feedstock propane from the US are now subject to hefty tariffs amid the renewed US-China trade war. Meanwhile, spot prices of oxo-alcohols such as 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH), dioctyl phthalate (DOP), and n-butanol (NBA) have risen as constrained production tightened supply. Supply-side pressures have allowed them to outperform despite weakness in the broader market. For epichlorohydrin (ECH), prices were largely stable, supported by limited availability, with plants in northeast Asia running at below 50% of capacity. Meanwhile, restocking was taking place in China ahead of the week-long Labor Day holiday in early May. ECH is a chemical intermediate used in the production of synthetic rubbers, resins, and pharmaceuticals, among other industrial uses. Downstream epoxy resins prices are also stable amid restocking following price falls in March. In the fatty alcohol mid-cut market, prices are rising on tightened supply and elevated cost of feedstock palm kernel oil (PKO) in Indonesia. Two regional plants – one in Malaysia and another in Indonesia – are currently shut for scheduled maintenance, while another plant in Malaysia remains shut due to an unplanned outage in early April. The Malaysian plant was shut at the start of the month due to a fire incident. Generally, demand has remained soft as buyers adopt a risk-mitigation strategy to better navigate the uncertain market, ICIS analyst Ann Sun said. The majority of chemical prices are forecast to decline in tandem with falling oil prices, weighed down by recessionary fears, Sun added. Amid uncertainties surrounding markets, traders – notably those in China – are searching for alternative paths away from the US towards regions with lower tariffs such as southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe. Some US goods bound for China are also being re-routed to other countries like India amid high tariffs. OUTLOOK The volume of world trade is expected to fall by as much as 1.5% if US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs are back on the menu after a 90-day suspension lapses, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Meanwhile, the US and China appears to be on an all-out trade war, having imposed tariffs exceeding 100% on each other. Export front-loading is taking place globally as markets seek to avoid further complications wrought by future tariff announcements by the US. But not all countries have posted export growth. South Korean exports fell in the first 20 days of April by 5.2% year on year – the first signs that US tariffs are beginning to hit global trade hard, said Min Joo Kang, senior economist for South Korea and Japan at Dutch financial institution ING. In southeast Asia, Malaysia’s gross exports in March grew by 6.8% year on year, led by front-loading ahead of Eid ul Fitr festival, Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research economists said in a note on 21 April. Eid ul Fitr marks the end of Ramadan, the Muslim fasting month. But UOB predicted a dimmer external trade outlook ahead for Malaysia, depending on how tariff negotiations with the US pan out. Malaysia, along with other ASEAN member nations such as Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, is sending a trade delegation to the US on 24 April. The southeast Asian country was slapped with 24% tariffs by Trump on 2 April prior to the levies’ 90-day suspension. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.4% year on year between January-March amid worries of lower growth outlook for 2025. Markets in southeast Asia, which were some of the hardest-hit by Trump’s tariffs, are anxiously waiting for the results of trade negotiations with the US before the 90-day suspension is up in July. Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged southeast Asian governments to unite against “unilateralism” during his recent tour of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. Separately, China warned countries against striking deals with the US at its expense, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said on 21 April. “Sacrificing others’ interests to obtain so-called exemptions for temporary selfish gains is akin to negotiating with a tiger; it ultimately leads to failure for both parties and harms everyone involved,” it said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Matthew Chong, Izham Ahmad, Claire Gao, Helen Yan, Josh Quah, Aswin Kondapally and Julia Tan Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

23-Apr-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its growth forecasts for China, India and other developing Asian economies following latest escalation in US-led trade war. For China, the forecast growth was revised down to 4.0% from 4.6% previously, representing a sharp deceleration from the pace of expansion in 2024, according to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on 22 April. Last year, the world’s second-biggest economy expanded by 5.0%, in line with the Chinese government’s target. "This reflects the impact of recently implemented tariffs, which offset the stronger carryover from 2024 (as a result of a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter) and fiscal expansion in the budget," the IMF said. China's growth in 2026 was also revised down to 4.0% from 4.5% previously "the back of prolonged trade policy uncertainty and the tariffs now in place". India’s GDP growth this year is also expected to come in lower, at 6.2%, down from the previous forecast of 6.5%, on account of higher levels of trade tensions and global uncertainty, the IMF said. The south Asian giant’s 2025 growth, nonetheless, remains comparatively higher than the rest of the region, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas, it added. For emerging and developing Asia, growth is expected to decline further to 4.5% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, after a marked slowdown in 2024. "Emerging and developing Asia, particularly Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, has been among the most affected by the April tariffs," the IMF said. Growth for the ASEAN-5 – which consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand – for 2025 was revised down to 4.0% from 4.6% previously. In the near term – under a reference forecast which includes tariff announcements between 1 February and 4 April by the US and countermeasures by other countries – global growth is projected to slow down to 2.8% in 2025 (from 3.3% in 2024) before accelerating to 3.0% in 2026. "Risks to the global economy have increased, and worsening trade tensions could further depress growth," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. Risks to the global economy have increased, and worsening trade tensions could further depress growth, he said. "Growth prospects could, however, immediately improve if countries ease their current trade policy stance and forge new trade agreements. "Addressing domestic imbalances can, over a period of years, offset economic risks and raise global output while contributing significantly to closing external imbalances…It also means boosting support for domestic demand in China, and stepping up fiscal consolidation in the United States," Gourinchas said. Thumbnail image shows IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaking at a press briefing (Source: Xinhua/Shutterstock) Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

23-Apr-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–TotalEnergies will turn off its oldest steam cracker in Antwerp, Belgium by the end of 2027, the producer announced on Tuesday. The decision to stop production was taken in the face of overcapacity in the petrochemicals industry, with significant length expected in the European ethylene market, the company said. TotalEnergies operates two crackers at its Antwerp site, and will close the one that is not integrated with its downstream polymer production. The cracker had historically been dependent on a major contract with a third-party user for offtake of the ethylene it produced, but the buyer decided not to renew its purchase agreement by the end of 2027. The integrated steam cracker will continue to run, with ethylene produced used entirely by TotalEnergies industrial units in Antwerp and Feluy, Belgium. The move to close the cracker will impact 253 employees, but TotalEnergies has not announced any redundancies in line with the decision. Those concerned will be offered “a solution aligned with their personal situation: retirement or an internal transfer to another position based at the Antwerp site,” the energy major said in a statement. “This project is subject to the legally required employee consultation and notification process, which TotalEnergies will initiate with representatives of Antwerp platform employees in late April.” Thumbnail image shows aerial view of petrochemical industry infrastructure along Scheldt River in the Port of Antwerp (image credit Shutterstock)

22-Apr-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 18 April. US tariffs spark fears in Chile about even higher industrial goods imports US import tariffs on China and other Asian countries are increasing fears in Chile that even higher amounts of imports will dent domestic plastics and wider manufacturing producers’ competitiveness, according to the CEO at the country’s plastics trade group Asipla. INSIGHT: Global chemical prices plunge with oil amid tariffs The tariffs imposed by the US and the uncertainty of what will follow has caused a crash in oil prices and is one of the main factors behind a global decline in chemical prices in the days after the country's April announcement of its reciprocal tariffs. Valero may shut down California refinery in 2026 Valero has submitted notice to the California Energy Commission of its intent to idle, restructure, or cease refining operations at its Benicia Refinery by the end of April 2026, the US refining major said in an update on Wednesday. Brazil's chemicals production in ‘free fall’ as idle capacity hits 40% Brazil's chemicals industry is facing its worst performance in 30 years, with the producing companies in the sector operating at just 60% of installed capacity during January and February, the country’s trade group Abiquim said. INSIGHT: Possible US mineral tariffs threaten chem, refiner catalysts The US is taking steps that could lead to tariffs on imports of up to 50 critical minerals, many of which are used to make catalysts for key processes used by refiners and chemical producers. Canada to keep using retaliatory tariffs, regardless of election outcome Canada will continue resorting to retaliatory tariffs against the US – regardless of which party, the incumbent Liberals or the opposition Conservatives, wins the upcoming 28 April federal election.

21-Apr-2025