
Ammonia
Optimising profitability in this fast-moving market
Market transparency through trusted data
Ammonia is a key building block for fertilizers and other manufactured chemicals. Capitalise on market opportunities with supply chain data and expert analytics that help you keep track of vast volumes of data. Stay ahead of market movements and interdependencies not only for ammonia, but also for other crop nutrients and related chemicals, with trusted market intelligence and accurate forecasting.
Increasingly, ammonia is being valued as a potential contributor to the energy transition. As a carbon-free, easily dispatchable hydrogen carrier, it enables the cost-effective storage and distribution of large amounts of renewable energy. As such, ammonia is the key to facilitating a secure supply of renewable hydrogen.
To meet this broad spectrum of needs, we engage closely with producers, buyers and traders throughout the supply chain and across several continents. Working independently, we collate and constantly update a comprehensive view of ammonia price movements and supply and demand drivers. Inform your decision-making, with timely insights and accurate data.
RELATED LINKS:
Carbon cost-adjusted ammonia price
(Northwest Europe)
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) takes full effect in the European Union in 2026 and is expected to impact all aspects of the ammonia market. Manage costs and stay ahead of this evolving market with the ICIS carbon cost-adjusted ammonia price.
Our formula is based on the weekly CFR Northwest Europe Duty Unpaid spot/contract ammonia price, the weekly average carbon spot price from EEX EUA, carbon emission per tonne of NH3 (ammonia) production and free CO2 allocation per tonne of ammonia.
Other fertilizers commodities that we cover
Learn about our solutions for ammonia
Pricing, news and analysis
Maximise profitability in uncertain markets with ICIS full range of solutions for ammonia, including current and historic pricing, forecasts, supply and demand data, news and analysis.
Data solutions
Learn about Insight, Hindsight and Foresight, our dedicated commodity solutions accessible through our subscriber platform, ICIS ClarityTM or Data as a Service channels.
Ammonia news
Asia top stories – weekly summary
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 14 February. SE Asia PE plant shutdowns deemed necessary for rebalancing By Izham Ahmad 10-Feb-25 10:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A recent wave of plant shutdowns among polyethylene (PE) producers across southeast Asia has been seen by some as a reflection of how dire the situation in the market is. Malaysia's Lotte Chemical Titan incurs record Q4 loss; '25 outlook downbeat By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Feb-25 14:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Lotte Chemical Titan (LCT) incurred its largest-ever quarterly loss, with analysts expecting the Malaysian producer to remain in the red in 2025 amid weak economic conditions and an oversupply of petrochemical products. INSIGHT: Strong hydrogen push in China to reshape global industry amid US pullback By Patricia Tao 10-Feb-25 18:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US has suspended financial support for its own hydrogen sector, while China is ramping up efforts to expand its hydrogen industry. The sharp policy divergence between the two countries could accelerate the global hydrogen market’s shift and reshape the industry landscape over the next three to five years. Asia polyester tracks rising costs despite weak post-holiday demand By Judith Wang 11-Feb-25 12:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s polyester export discussions edged up in line with the higher cost pressure after the Lunar New Year holiday, while buying activities were limited as end-user demand remained weak. SE Asia VAM market rallies on crimped supply, demand surge By Hwee Hwee Tan 12-Feb-25 12:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The southeast Asia vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) import market is being buoyed by resurgent restocking demand and supply disruptions into February. INSIGHT: US policy shift raises concerns on future of CCS, blue ammonia value chain By Bee Lin Chow 12-Feb-25 13:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The unfolding political battle in the US over national economic interest and energy security has raised concerns about potential implications for its emerging carbon capture and storage (CCS) and blue ammonia sectors, and the potential spillover impact on Asia. PODCAST: US hydrogen subsidy halt vs China’s expansion – what’s next for the global market? By Anita Yang 12-Feb-25 15:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Trump administration swiftly withdrew financial support for its hydrogen sector, while China is accelerating hydrogen expansion with strong policy backing. INSIGHT: India may offer tariff concessions to US as PM Modi meets Trump By Priya Jestin 13-Feb-25 14:18 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff cuts on various products, including electronics and automobiles – major downstream sectors of petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports. Vietnam to raise 2025 GDP growth target to 8% to fuel socioeconomic growth By Jonathan Yee 13-Feb-25 16:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam announced on 12 February it would raise its GDP growth target for 2025 to 8.0% from 6.5-7.0%, with industrial manufacturing and foreign investment expected to drive growth. Singapore 2024 petrochemical exports grow 4.6%; trade risks stay high By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Feb-25 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports in 2024 rose by 4.6%, supporting the overall growth in non-oil shipments abroad which is being threatened by ongoing trade frictions among major economies.
17-Feb-2025
TFI ’25: Even with tariff threat and winter lingering, spring outlook from US fertilizer industry quite positive
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Even with potential tariffs coming in two weeks and winter looking like it wants to linger, possibly through much of February in some states, the US fertilizer industry is quite positive over the near-term direction of domestic products, especially urea. Many participants gathered this week at the first major US fertilizer conference where the strong tone that has been developing to start the year was on full display. The current outlook comes from the lift in near term prices and firm sentiment towards there being good consumption of the volumes already positioned as field work begins in more areas over the rest of this month. There is also an upbeat view towards there being solid demand patterns throughout the season if inventory tightness does not impede that flow, with it widely expected that the current conditions and the arrival of the peak spring season will promote further value escalation in the short-term. Further boosting the overall optimism is this season’s corn plantings with estimates remaining elevated and now ranging between 93 million to 96 million acres potentially. The realization of the higher end of that projection is likely dependent on corn prices being supportive over the next several weeks and there being an early start of field work in key states. It was expressed that the current low inventory of products, especially in nitrogen could become a limiting factor with a source saying, “we don’t have enough urea for 95 million to 96 million acres”. That these extra sowings would cause a lift in total fertilizer consumption is not for certain. Some of the increased acreage could be on land considered marginal for growing high yielding corn and farmers could chose to do less than they would on prime land or chose a cheaper option. Or even count on enough nutrient carryover from the last crop. When it came to weighing the impacts that fertilizer and agricultural interests within both Canada and the US might face with tariffs there was significant discussions over whether these measures would be imposed or would they not come forth at all. If so, would it be implemented at the full rate of 25% or be placed at a different level higher or lower, with participants almost evenly split between their viewpoints. Those operating in Canada or with interest in product within the country are definitely more vested in these outcomes than others in the industry and their concerns were sharper. As one source said a large spike in values would be the most immediate hit to the markets and more than anything there is “a lot of uncertainty and it’s changed the way we are selling there”. Some participants are also seeing US retailers becoming more cautious about their further commitments even though supply is tight for nitrogen products. In many areas winter weather is keeping activities quite reduced and could keep the northern areas frozen a bit longer, there was still some optimism that some areas could get underway as March begins. If that materializes that would be deemed an early start in some locations, with there being the mindset that the sooner farmers start the more time for fertilizers to be consumed. For now, field work is only underway in the southern states in places that have been warmer and dry but that is only a small portion of what is ahead for spring applications. It was discussed that there are some wheat inputs that have begun, and it is expected that over the coming weeks even more efforts will start where there is good soil moisture for not only ammonia but also urea and UAN applications.
14-Feb-2025
BP puts Gelsenkirchen, Germany refinery, crackers up for sale
BARCELONA (ICIS)–BP plans to sell its to sell its Ruhr Oel refinery, crackers and downstream assets at Gelsenkirchen in Germany. The company will start marketing the assets immediately, with the aim of completing the sale this year, according to a statement published on 6 February by the UK headquartered energy giant. According to the ICIS Supply & Demand Database BP operates a refinery and two crackers with combined capacity of 1.065 million tonnes/year of ethylene, as well as units with 645,000 tonnes/year propylene, 430,000 tonnes/year benzene plus cumene, cyclohexane, methanol, toluene and ammonia facilities. BP said the assets for sale include DHC Solvent Chemie in Mulheim an der Ruhr. All refinery owners in Europe are under pressure to rationalise their portfolios thanks to the shift to vehicle electrification and high cost base. There is also intense competition from new refineries starting up in Asia and the Middle East. BP said the move is in line with its strategic drive to deliver a simpler, more focused, higher value company. The company said that it has implemented numerous projects to modernize the infrastructure of the refinery in Gelsenkirchen in recent years. This includes renewing the power grid and establishing an independent steam supply. The refinery can process crude oils from around the world, produce fuels and also has the potential to manufacture biofuels and process recycled plastics, said bp. Michael Connolly, ICIS principal refining analyst pointed out that the refinery is configured to give a moderately high yield of gasoline, meaning it is not really suited to the future of the European market, where vehicle electrification is hurting demand. He said BP already had plans to reduce the capacity of the refinery from 260,000 bbl/day to 155,000 bbl/day in 2025. “Undoubtedly it would have used Russian crude, but despite having access to seaborne crude, the loss of Russian crude through sanctions would have impacted financials,” he said. The economics of the facility will also be more challenging, as for all European refiners, because cracks or margins for gasoil production have declined to pre-Ukraine war levels, added Connolly. ICIS expects German crude refining capacity to fall from 2.1 million bbl/day in 2020 to 1.8 million bbl/day by 2026 and well off their peak refining capacity of 2.4 bd in 2007. Emma Delaney, BP executive vice president, customers & products said, “BP needs to continually manage its global portfolio as we position to grow as a simpler, more focused, higher-value company. After a thorough review, we have concluded that a new owner would be better suited for the site to take it forward. We are convinced that the refinery can unlock its full potential under new ownership.” Focus article by Will Beacham Graphics by Miguel Rodriguez-Fernandez Thumbnail photo: bp's refinery site in Gelsenkirchen, Germany (Source: BP) Clarification: recasts to explain BP has two crackers at the site.
06-Feb-2025
Samsung A&E bags $1.7bn deal to build UAE's first methanol plant
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Abu Dhabi Chemicals Derivatives Co (TA’ZIZ) said on Monday it has awarded South Korea’s engineering firm Samsung E&A a $1.7 billion contract to build the first methanol plant in the UAE, which is slated to be completed in 2028. The plant, to be built in Al Ruwais Industrial City in western Abu Dhabi, will have a capacity of 1.8 million tonnes/year, TA’ZIZ said in a statement posted on the website of its parent firm Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC). TA’ZIZ is a joint venture (JV) between ADNOC and sovereign wealth fund ADQ. Samsung A&E was formerly known as Samsung Engineering. “The [methanol] plant will enhance the UAE’s position as a leader in sustainable chemicals production and strengthen TA’ZIZ’s role in enabling ADNOC’s global ambition to lead the chemicals sector,” TA’ZIZ CEO Mashal Saoud Al Kindi said. The company said that the plant will be "powered by clean energy from the grid, making it one of the world’s most energy-efficient methanol plants". Set up in 2020 to develop industrial projects and diversify the economy away from oil in the UAE, TA'ZIZ is expected to produce 4.7 million tonnes/year of chemicals by 2028 in its initial phase, including methanol, low-carbon ammonia, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and caustic soda. Several of these chemicals will be produced for the first time in the UAE. ADNOC is moving in the specialty chemical space as part of its growth. On 1 February, ADNOC announced that it is in talks with Austrian petrochemical firm OMV to acquire Canada's Nova Chemicals from Mubadala, another Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund. If the acquisition goes through, a new global polyolefins group combining Nova Chemicals, Borealis, and Borouge will be formed, it said. Borealis is a 75:25 joint venture between OMV and ADNOC, while Borouge is jointly owned by ADNOC (54%) and Borealis (36%).
03-Feb-2025
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates edge lower on LNY slowdown, roll out of new alliances
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US ticked slightly lower this week, while global average rates dropped by 2% as the Lunar New Year holiday began in China. This period usually sees a significant reduction in shipping volumes as factories shut down or cut production in anticipation of the holiday, leading to lower demand for shipping services. Rates to both US coasts fell by 1%, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. Drewry expects spot rates to decrease slightly in the coming week due to the increase in capacity created by the LNY slowdown. The following chart from Drewry shows the decrease in global average rates. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said transpacific rates should continue to face downward pressure before likely rebounding in mid-February. Transpacific rates to the West Coast have dipped by 17% since mid-January, according to Freightos data, but are still more than double levels seen in 2019. Continued diversions away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal continue to absorb capacity across the market. Even as progress is being made with a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict, shipping companies are still avoiding the shorter route. Global shipping major Maersk said this week that it will continue to avoid the Suez Canal and Red Sea until safe passage through the area is ensured for the longer term to optimize stability and certainty across supply chains. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. TARIFFS Frontloading of volumes to get ahead of proposed tariff hikes is likely over as US President Donald Trump said on Friday that tariffs will begin on 1 February for Canada, Mexico and China. “This will keep ocean volumes and rates to the US higher than they otherwise would be in Q1 and possibly into Q2 depending on the timing of the increases,” Levine said. “This pull-forward could also be felt in lower volumes and rates after tariffs are introduced.” LIQUID TANKER SPOT RATES STEADY Rates for liquid chemical tankers ex-US Gulf held steady this week. The transatlantic eastbound route saw some activity with monoethylene glycol (MEG) and caustic soda fixed to the Mediterranean, and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonia to the UK. There are a few smaller parcels moving on the route, brokers said, but nothing significant as it appears some trader volumes are still being affected in the aftermath of the recent winter storm. On the USG-Asia route, part cargo space has tightened across the regular players, a broker said, with Odfjell showing only 1,000-2,000 tonnes of available space for February. The USG to South America trade lane was quiet this week, brokers said, with contract of affreightment (COA) nominations steady.
31-Jan-2025
EU proposes import tariffs on Russian and Belarusian nitrogen-based fertilizers
LONDON (ICIS)–The European Commission has adopted a proposal to impose tariffs on a number of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus, as well as on certain nitrogen-based fertilizers. In the proposal, the first round of tariffs will come into place on 1 July 2025. For fertilizers, on top of the existing duty of 6.5%, the tariff would be subject to an additional specific duty that would gradually increase, starting at €40/tonne or €45/tonne, depending on the type of fertilizer (corresponding to around 13% in ad valorem equivalent). The duty would increase to a prohibitive level of €315/tonne or €430/tonne respectively, three years after the start of the proposed regulation’s application (a level of about 100% in ad valorem equivalent). In the three-year transitional period, the prohibitive tariffs would also be introduced if imports from Russia and Belarus are above certain specified volumes. The increase in tariffs will not affect the transit of goods to countries outside the EU. The agricultural products affected by the new tariffs constitute 15% of agricultural imports from Russia in 2023 that had not yet been subject to increased tariffs. Once adopted by the European Parliament and the Council, all agricultural imports from Russia would be the subject of EU tariffs. The EU said the tariffs will support the growth of domestic production and the EU's fertilizer sector, which has suffered during the energy crisis. They will also ensure a steady fertilizer supply and, most importantly, for fertilizers to remain affordable for farmers. The proposal includes mitigating measures, should EU farmers see a substantial increase in fertilizer prices. In the press release, the EU expected the tariffs to negatively impact Russian export revenues, thus impacting Russia's ability to wage its war of aggression against Ukraine. Major fertilizer producers in Europe have been lobbying the EU to take immediate action against Russian fertilizer imports. The producers have called on the European Commission to act against the high volume of imports from Russia, in what is described as "unfair trade' due to the impact of Russian and Belarusian imports. They have expressed their frustration that the threat of Russian imports was not being taken seriously and not enough was being done to protect them ahead of the spring campaign which is now underway. A week ago, German fertilizer company SKW Piesteritz said it had been forced to shut one of its two ammonia plants for an indefinite period because of cheap fertilizers from Russia, coupled with high costs in Germany and an unfavorable political climate. Top Five European urea importers 2023 Importing country Imports 2023 (tonnes) Russian imports (%) France Customs 1,671,913 15 Poland Customs 1,160,717 30 Spain Customs 997,551 10 United Kingdom HMRC 977,229 13 Germany Customs 921,321 37 Calls for a 30% tariff on Russian and Belarusian imports on all fertilizers no later than February was described by one supplier to Europe as “a bold move ahead of the season”. The new season for buying and application is underway in some parts of Europe. In areas where temperatures are higher than normal, urea will be applied in the next 7-10 days. Aside from the impact of cheap Russian fertilizer on the EU, participants are also worried about Europe’s growing reliance on Russia imports, the potential threat to EU food supply and a derailing of the region's plan to decarbonize. It is widely discussed that Russia will push European fertilizer producers out of the market, and replace gas with fertilizer imports. Urea is produced from ammonia and carbon dioxide. It has a 46% nitrogen content, which is the highest nitrogen content of any solid nitrogen fertilizer. Urea can be applied by itself to the soil or mixed with phosphate and potash. Thumbnail photo source: Shutterstock
29-Jan-2025
Trafigura and CF Industries complete first ammonia and propane co-loaded vessel voyage from US to Europe
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global commodities group Trafigura, in collaboration with US fertilizer producer CF Industries, announced the completion of the first co-loaded ammonia and propane shipment operation of its kind. In early January, the Green Power medium gas carrier completed a single voyage from the US to Europe loaded with ammonia from CF Industries and with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in separate tanks. The co-loaded vessel project was intended in part as a demonstration of capabilities needed for the efficient and economic transport of low-carbon ammonia to supply ports that may not require a full vessel of ammonia. The companies said the ability to co-load low-carbon ammonia with LPG is one pathway to supporting the scale up in availability of low emission fuels. It was noted that low-carbon ammonia continuing to be a leading alternative fuel candidate for applications such as coal co-firing as well as supporting the marine shipping industry transition from heavy fuel oil to alternatives with a lower-carbon intensity. “We transport LPG and ammonia from the US to Europe on similar ships on a regular basis,” said Patricio Norris, Trafigura global head of ammonia and LPG. “We can improve the economics for our customers and reduce emissions with fewer voyages by safely co-loading ammonia and LPG in the same vessel.” The ammonia was loaded onto the Green Power at CF Industries Donaldsonville, Louisiana, complex and LPG was loaded into separate tanks of the vessel in Corpus Christi, Texas. CF Industries said strict segregation requirements ensured that any crossover of liquid, condensate or vapor was prevented. After crossing the LPG was discharged via a ship-to-ship operation in the Mediterranean for use in domestic heating and the ammonia was discharged at Tees Port for CF Fertilisers UK. “We appreciate the partnership we have with Trafigura as we take steps together to help prepare for demand growth of low-carbon ammonia and the expected transition of the marine shipping industry to low-carbon ammonia as a fuel,” said Bert Frost, CF Industries executive vice president. “Ammonia is safely transported around the world by vessels daily, and this voyage reinforces the flexibility we have to serve emerging low-carbon ammonia demand as we innovate shipping methods with industry-leaders such as Trafigura.” This shipment follows Trafigura’s first ship-to-ship transfer of ammonia in July 2024 for CF Industries. The fertilizer producer is currently progressing a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project at Donaldsonville which will enable it to produce substantial volumes of low-carbon ammonia. The CCS project is expected to start-up during 2025.
16-Jan-2025
Europe Outlook Stories 2025 Summary
LONDIN (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Europe Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. 2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY OUTLOOK ’25: Global fertilizer sector braced for a tricky start to 2025 The global fertilizer sector is bracing itself for a bumpy ride moving into 2025 as it starts the year with high operating costs and struggling grain markets, making affordability for farmers and growers a key concern. OUTLOOK ‘25: New production capacity expected to drive the ammonia market in 2025 Ammonia players are expecting more supply to come onstream in 2025 which could support a subdued market. OUTLOOK ‘25: Refining constraints, Dangote disruption, cracker closures to shake Europe naphtha market After a tumultuous 2024, the outlook for the naphtha and gasoline markets in 2025 reflects a complex interplay of supply dynamics, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical factors. OUTLOOK: 2025 will be critical to Europe pyrolysis oil scalability Legislative uncertainty, long commissioning times and macroeconomic headwinds will continue to negatively weigh on European pyrolysis oil market growth and investment decisions in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Jet fuel demand poised for take-off despite oversupply worries Jet fuel demand in Europe is expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2025 despite a potential supply glut. However, much will depend on the airline industry's ability to navigate through economic and geopolitical turbulence and its commitment to adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ethanol market could face supply challenges amid demand stability Mixed harvest yields in 2024 lead as one of several supply factors that is likely to shape the European ethanol market in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe biodiesel to face mixed supply, sluggish blending rates Evolving supply factors are set to meet relatively stable-to-low demand in the European biodiesel market for 2025. OUTLOOK '25: More of the same for Europe ethylene, propylene The best we can hope for is a re-run of 2024, European ethylene and propylene market players say, and there is very little expectation that Europe’s base case demand improves in any meaningful way in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ethanolamines market 2025 expectations subdued but braced for any supply shocks For 2025, similar underlying demand trends seen in the second half of 2024 are expected to carry across into the first half of 2025 with sentiment to remain broadly subdued. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PE faces triple threat of cost squeeze, overcapacity, longer supply chains European polyethylene (PE) markets face a triple whammy of high local costs, overcapacity globally and the risk of lengthening supply chains at a time when global trade flows are threatened by tariff wars in 2025 OUTLOOK ’25: Economic woes to continue stifling Turkish PE/PP demand Economic concerns continue to dampen demand expectations for Turkish polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) for the first half of 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Africa PE/PP players expect year of stagnation on oversupplied market Could 2025 finally be the year? A return to healthy polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) demand across Africa? OUTLOOK ’25: Positive view for European R-LDPE packaging grades, other sectors face tough start Demand for low and high melt flow index (MFI) grades of recycled low density polyethylene (R-LDPE) from the packaging sector will continue to grow in 2025 but construction-related grades may suffer due to low end-use market demand. OUTLOOK '25: Europe R-HDPE packaging/non-packaging divide deepens The fragmentation between packaging and non-packaging grades of Europe recycled high density polyethylene (R-HDPE) is expected to continue in 2025, while consolidation risk across the market remains high – particularly for companies heavily exposed to the construction sector. OUTLOOK '25: Europe R-PP increasingly fragmented by end-use demand Demand for Europe recycled polypropylene (R-PP) has radically diverged by the end-use market across 2024, and this is expected to continue in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PP players eye pain points from old plants, tariff threats and limp manufacturing 2024 was dominated by supply-driven dynamics and 2025 looks unlikely to be much different for Europe's polypropylene (PP) market. OUTLOOK '25: Europe Mixed plastic waste demand remains driven by mechanical recycling in 2025 Europe mixed plastic waste demand will remain weak for as long as overall industrial production remains limited by macroeconomic headwinds. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ACN set for another year of confined demand Downstream demand constraints brought on by geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges are anticipated to persist into 2025 for Europe's acrylonitrile (ACN) market. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BDO demand pessimism to continue under the gloom of rising capacities in China There is a growing sense of apathy among players in the European butanediol (BDO) market when it comes to discussing demand hopes for 2025 as there are no expectations of an uptick and there is a prevalence of worry ahead of growing capacity in China in an already oversupplied market. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe SBR demand overshadowed by automotive challenges European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR) demand could lift slightly in January on restocking activity, but there are still longer-term concerns over the timeline for recovery of the automotive industry. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ABS and SAN demand to stay weak, imports unclear as ABS ADD investigation begins Demand has been mostly weak throughout 2024 in the Europe acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN) markets, as downstream sectors have continued to be impacted by ongoing pressures, and similar is expected to continue into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe OX market to see little demand recovery despite lower interest rates The European orthoxylene (OX) market is gearing up for 2025 with the expectation of stable-to-slightly firmer downstream demand, in particular from the second quarter onwards. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PX demand to remain downbeat in H1 2025 amid downstream rationalizations, imports Paraxylene (PX) demand pessimism in Europe is expected to continue in the first half of 2025 due to the rationalization of downstream purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants in the region. OUTLOOK '25: Europe CX, capro markets face stable, low demand in 2025 The European cyclohexane (CX) and caprolactam (capro) markets face broadly stable but overall weak demand in 2025, as a lack of optimism in key downstream sectors and ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions hit sentiment. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MX consumption to remain subdued Downstream requirements for mixed xylenes (MX) in Europe was limited in 2024 and there are similar expectations for 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe styrene market squeezed as imports climb, demand feeble The European styrene market is expected to face increased competition and complexity in 2025, requiring players to navigate fragile domestic supply, a bearish and uncertain demand outlook, and rising import volumes. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PS, EPS demand mostly unchanging, potential PS import competition Throughout 2024, the Europe polystyrene (PS) market has faced stable demand at a low level, and expandable polystyrene (EPS) demand has been very weak, as ongoing pressures have continued to impact downstream activity in both markets, and 2025 could be similar. OUTLOOK '25: Europe benzene market limps into 2025 as supply surplus, demand uncertainty prevails The Europe benzene market is expected to see generally sufficient supply in the first half of 2025, with tightness likely only in the Mediterranean region. OUTLOOK '25: Europe toluene supply conditions to be in better shape than demand Consumption of toluene in Europe ended up limited in 2024 with supply in relatively in good condition, with similar views for 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PET/PTA markets hang by a thread in battle to survive The polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value chain in Europe remains in survival mode as consumption is negatively affected by macroeconomics, while costs and logistics remain challenging. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe R-PET hopes for better year but challenges remain Participants across the European recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market are hoping for better demand from Q1 2025 after the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) comes into force in January, but cheap PET, imports of R-PET flake and pellet, and unpredictable consumer spending all pose potential problems. OUTLOOK ’25: European MEG supply more limited at end Q1, demand expectations bearish European monethylene glycol (MEG) supply could be more balanced at the end of the first quarter or beginning of the second on turnarounds, but general concerns surrounding oversupply and slow demand continue to dampen expectations of a sustained market recovery. OUTLOOK '25: Low but steady demand expected in Europe nylon market Europe nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 markets face ongoing low but overall stable demand in 2025, as key downstream markets are in peril from persistently challenging macroeconomic conditions and low end-buyer demand. OUTLOOK 25’: PVC demand may return to growth but unlikely to offset overcapacity The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in Europe is likely to see a modest recovery in 2025 after demand weakness in 2024, but this will be offset by excess global capacity and low utilization rates at existing plants. OUTLOOK 25’: Last caustic soda producer to sit down is out 2025 is likely to resemble a high-stakes game of musical chairs for European chlor-alkali producers. OUTLOOK '25: Ample supply for Europe acetic acid and VAM despite import constraints, outages Weak demand was the most significant influence on European acetic acid and derivative vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) conditions throughout 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Europe AA bracing for ‘more of the same’ for 2025 The Europe acrylic acid (AA) market is bracing itself for “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 set to roll into the New Year. OUTLOOK '25: Europe acrylate esters bracing for continued challenges in 2025 The Europe acrylate ester market is bracing for the challenges of 2024 to continue into 2025, with added geopolitical and economic volatility. OUTLOOK '25: Europe MMA set to see 2024 challenges continue into 2025 The Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) is bracing itself for the challenges seen in 2024 to continue into the New Year. OUTLOOK '25: Europe PMMA hoping for demand growth, but bracing for stagnant market The Europe polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) market is bracing for 2025 to be “more of the same” with the challenges of 2024 continuing. OUTLOOK '25: European phenol and acetone markets face demand stagnation and global capacity growth in 2025 Fresh global capacity, low domestic demand, logistics difficulties and volatile feedstocks will all challenge Europe's phenol and acetone markets in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: European refinery solvents to track feedstocks in 2025, demand trends unchanged In 2025, European refinery solvents markets will be pinned to the developments in upstream crude and energy sectors. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe methylene chloride consumption to remain stable in H1 Demand for methylene chloride (MEC) in Europe is projected to stay stable at a low level, as persistent challenges that plagued the market in 2024 are expected to continue in 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe EO demand expected to lift slightly in January European ethylene oxide (EO) 2025 discussions largely centred around stable-to-soft agreements, depending on starting point and account, at the end of 2024, even as demand is expected to increase in January. OUTLOOK ’25: Demand stagnates, capacity expands in Europe MPG, PO markets Players in the European mono propylene glycol (MPG) and upstream propylene oxide (PO) markets expect familiar challenges, including oversupply and weak demand, will persist well into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe polyols and isocyanates demand recovery handicapped by sluggish downstream markets The polyols and isocyanates market in Europe is finishing 2024 with lethargic consumption, with 2025 being held back by slow momentum from major end user sectors. OUTLOOK '25: Slow start to 2025 expected in Europe propylene glycol ethers market, no significant supply concerns A subdued start is anticipated in the European market for propylene glycol ethers in 2025. Price changes are expected to continue to be led by availability fluctuations with few anticipating much demand recovery in the first half of the year and potentially beyond. OUTLOOK '25: Europe butyl glycol ethers market set for lacklustre H1 2025, focus remains on availability The outlook for the European butyl glycol (BG) and butyl di-glycol (BdG) market is largely subdued heading into 2025. Despite a spate of planned maintenances scheduled for Q1, there is not significant supply concern in the main. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BPA market set to navigate various challenges The European bisphenol A (BPA) market is not likely to face an easy ride in terms of demand in 2025, with no sign of any recovery in key end sectors, a few lost outlets structurally and with competition from Asia likely to remain strong. OUTLOOK ’25: MA, PA demand weakness ongoing, H1 supply outlooks differ but Asian reliance growing European maleic anhydride (MA) and phthalic anhydride (PA) markets in Europe will face similar supply-demand dynamics in 2025 to those in 2024, with a challenging macroeconomic environment expected to continue crippling demand for most of the year and complex supply scenarios with difficult logistics continuing. OUTLOOK '25: Europe melamine still in survival mode amid poor demand, high production costs European melamine suppliers remain pressured by high production costs and low margins heading into 2025. OUTLOOK '25: Europe IPA and MEK supply to remain ample despite import constraints, capacity consolidation The European isopropanol (IPA) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets were defined by muted consumption and ample availability for most of 2024. OUTLOOK '25: Europe ECH supply rather than demand under the spotlight for 2025 Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply rather than demand is likely to be subject to more change in 2025, in view of Westlake’s ECH Pernis plant idling and possible adjusted trade flows in response to various trade defense cases and measures. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe fatty acids, alcohols to grapple with ongoing high feedstock costs in H1 European oleochemicals face another challenging year ahead, with squeezed fatty alcohol supply and improved palm-based fatty acids availability versus elevated feedstock costs. OUTLOOK '25: EU epoxy players on the cusp of a new normal, pending EU AD decision EU Epoxy market players are preparing for a new normal in 2025 and shifts in sourcing strategy, based on expected anti-dumping (AD) duties on Chinese and other Asian product, but the prospect of a recovery remains slim. OUTLOOK ’25: Europe paraffin wax market likely to see minimal demand recovery The forecast for European paraffin wax in 2025 is weak, particularly during the first half. The market is expected to face ongoing challenges like those experienced in 2024. OUTLOOK '25: EU ADD leverage on Chinese TiO2 imports dimmed by weak demand The final EU anti-dumping measures on Chinese TiO2 imports are unlikely to bring any domestic support into 2025, despite profitability struggles in the TiO2 industry, as the underlying demand outlook remains bleak. OUTLOOK ’25: Poland’s Azoty, Orlen face hard yards on journey back to health When in November Poland’s Grupa Azoty fairly leapt at the chance to move into the government-backed production of explosives, it served as a further confirmation of the deep hole Europe’s second largest fertilizer maker finds itself in.
13-Jan-2025
INSIGHT: Startup developing carbon-capture tech, eyes oil's CO2 demand
HOUSTON (ICIS)–A startup company expects demand for carbon dioxide (CO2) from enhanced oil recovery and other uses could exceed supplies of the gas, opening an opportunity for the firm's carbon-capture units, which forego solvents to capture the gas from the atmosphere. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the US consumed 1.9 billion cubic feet/day of CO2 in 2022 to produce 245,000 bbl/day of crude, according to the consultancy Advanced Resources International, implying that each barrel required 7,755 cubic feet or 2.5 tonnes of CO2. The start-up company, Carbon Capture & Commercialization, expects a shortage of CO2 given its use in oil production and depletion from natural reservoirs. Companies like Occidental Petroleum are already turning to direct air capture (DAC) to secure supplies of the gas for EOR. Carbon Capture estimates that its units will be able to capture CO2 from the atmosphere at a cost of $100/tonne. The company does not plan on operating the units and selling the CO2, said Sam Adams, managing director at Carbon Capture. He talked about the company in an interview with ICIS. Instead, Carbon Capture intends to sell or lease the units and leave the business of capturing CO2 to another company. THE CO2 SHORTAGECarbon Capture is betting that US oil producers will require new sources of CO2 to replace supplies from natural underground reservoirs. Natural sources accounted for more than three-quarters of the CO2 used in enhanced oil recovery in 2022, according to the consultancy Advanced Resources International. The following shows the principal natural reservoirs that supply CO2 for EOR: McElmo Dome in Colorado state. Jackson Dome in Mississippi state. Bravo Dome in New Mexico state. Doe Canyon in Colorado state. Sheep Mountain in Colorado state. Source: Advanced Resources International Kinder Morgan says it is the largest CO2 transporter in North America, with shipments of 1.5 billion cubic feet/day. Other large players in the CO2 market include ExxonMobil, which increased its role with the 2023 acquisition of Denbury, and Occidental Petroleum. Occidental Petroleum has already realized that it would run out of CO2 if it wanted to develop an additional 2 billion bbl of oil in the Permian basin, CEO Vicki Hollub said in 2022 at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference. That impending shortage is what initially compelled Occidental to pursue direct air capture. Developing more natural sources was not worth the cost, according to Hollub. Other oil and gas producers could face the same constraints in the next few decades, according to Global Energy Monitor, a non-profit organization that monitors energy projects with the intent to promote decarbonization. It said most estimates point to the US running out of natural CO2 by mid-century. Before such shortages take place, oil producers will need to operate wells that could benefit from EOR. Developing new reservoirs of natural CO2 will need to be prohibitively expensive. And other sources of CO2, such as natural gas processing plants or ethanol plants, will need to be insufficient to meet demand. OTHER MARKETS FOR CO2While EOR is the most significant market for CO2, it is not the only one. Concrete is another one as well as older buildings, said Adams of Carbon Capture. Many of these older buildings will be unable to meet new greenhouse gas regulations without prohibitively expensive upgrades. Modular carbon-capture units could allow these buildings to satisfy regulations, including those mandating net-zero CO2 emissions. Carbon Capture cited also greenhouses. Some polyols are made with CO2, and other CO2-based products could become commercialized if producers could secure a pure, low-cost and reliable source of the gas. If algae-based chemical and fuel production ever reaches a large enough scale, these operations could require CO2. If fertilizer producers want to convert green ammonia into urea, they will need a source of CO2. If e-fuels and e-chemicals take off, these would require a source of CO2 to react with green hydrogen. Cold storage and carbonation in the food and beverage market are well established markets, although they would require food-grade CO2. CO2'S JOURNEY FROM TRASH TO TREASURETo speed up CO2's transition into a commodity, production costs will have to decline. The current ethanolamines-based process used in carbon capture is not cheap because of the costs involved in releasing the CO2 from the solvents, Adams said. Those carbon-capture costs can be $900/tonne, according to Adams. The World Economic Forum (WEF) places the cost of direct air capture at $600-1,000/tonne. That compares with $100/tonne that Carbon Capture expects that it can achieve with its technology. CCC DITCHES SOLVENTS FOR GRAPHENE INKCarbon Capture's technology is avoiding the costs inherent in solvent-based DAC by relying on ceramic beads coated with plasma-functionalized graphene ink, Adams said. When it is time to release the CO2, a current is passed over a stack of the beads, heating them to 100-120 degrees Celsius, Adams said. It can take up to an hour to regenerate the beads and release the captured CO2. In all, the system consumes 100kWh/tonne of CO2, Adams said. So far, the company's beads have gone through 20 regeneration cycles without any significant degradation, Adams said. However, the graphene-based ink will degrade if it is overheated, and that limits how many watts can go through a single system and how large that system can be. Larger systems take longer to regenerate. To work around this constraint, Carbon Capture installs the systems in shipping containers that are up to 40 feet, according to Adams. A 40-foot unit could capture 1,500 tonnes/year in an urban setting. At full production, that could reach 1,800-1,850 tonnes/year. Regeneration times take 45-60 minutes for a 40-foot container. The ceramic beads would be contained in a cartridge, Adams said. These can be collected from the units and shipped to a central location, where the beads could be regenerated and the CO2 is extracted. WORKING ON SERIES A FUNDINGThese are still early days for Carbon Capture's technology. The company is working on starting its Series A funding, with an initial tranche of $2 million, Adams said. If Carbon Capture can close that first tranche, it could develop a pilot plant in the subsequent six to nine months. The company does have a prototype, and Adams uses technology readiness levels (TRL) to measure the technology's. On a scale from 1 to 9, the carbon capture capabilities are at TRL7, while the release is at TRL3, he said. Still, Carbon Capture's thesis for future commodity market for CO2 holds true, then the oil industry will need to find a source for the gas if it intends to continue EOR. The future of carbon capture could depend on continued oil production. Insight by Al Greenwood
02-Jan-2025
TFI unveils the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity program
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) has announced the launch of the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity (VACI) program, which is a voluntary certification of the carbon footprint of ammonia production at a specific facility. The VACI is the first program of its kind with the industry group saying it is designed to provide ammonia consumers seeking to reduce emissions across their supply chains with an independent and certifiable carbon intensity score. TFI said the VACI certification framework will standardize the approach for calculating the carbon intensity of ammonia encompassing all aspects of ammonia manufacturing from feedstock production through the finished product at the plant gate. Producers will use the VACI standard to calculate the carbon intensity of ammonia produced at their facilities then an independent, third-party auditor will then verify or validate that the carbon intensity score is accurate. TFI president and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said ammonia is a critical input for both agriculture, emissions control and many commercial products including fabric and pharmaceuticals. “As agriculture and other industries increasingly look to develop more sustainable and resilient supply chains, the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity program provides ammonia consumers with certifiable transparency that will allow them to quantify the positive impact using low-carbon ammonia has on their greenhouse gas emissions footprint,” said Rosenbusch. Ammonia production typically uses natural gas as a feedstock for its hydrogen component and is an energy-intensive process with substantial carbon dioxide emissions as a byproduct. Currently there are US ammonia producers who are investing in technologies to dramatically reduce emissions with the VACI enabling them to document the varying levels of emissions reduction these technologies provide. The VACI program was developed by TFI in collaboration with technical industry experts from producers CF Industries, LSB, Nutrien, OCI and Yara with guidance from Hinicio, a strategic and technical consulting firm specializing in hydrogen and its derivatives and industrial decarbonization. Facilities certified under the program include Nutrien at Redwater in Canada and CF Industries in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, with audits that have been completed. Audits for LSB Industries in El Dorado, Arkansas, and CVR Energy in Coffeyville, Kansas, in progress. TFI said the VACI is undertaking a 60-day public consultation period for ammonia consumers and stakeholders to provide feedback on the program and its methodology and intends to refine the program based on comments received.
20-Dec-2024
Events and training
Events
Build your networks and grow your business at ICIS’ industry-leading events. Hear from high-profile speakers on the issues, technologies and trends driving commodity markets.
Training
Keep up to date in today’s dynamic commodity markets with expert online and in-person training covering chemicals, fertilizers and energy markets.
Contact us
Partnering with ICIS unlocks a vision of a future you can trust and achieve. Architect a sustainable future with a transparent, reliable view of supply chain emissions and recycled plastics. We leverage our unrivalled network of industry experts to deliver a comprehensive market view based on trusted data, insight and analytics, supporting our partners as they transact today and plan for tomorrow. Get in touch today to find out more.
Get in touch today to find out more.
READ MORE
