By John Richardson THE above slide underlines the growing complexity surrounding China’s economy, politics, society, environmental policies and trading relationship with the US. I’ve placed this complexity in the context of the implications for the polyethylene (PE) industry. The above slide, and the full explanation below, updates my three scenarios from last September. These new […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Debt Crisis: Out Of Fashion, But Could Still Happen
By John Richardson NO LONGER is the promotion of local government officials in China being solely measured by their success in hitting GDP growth targets. What is instead taking priority is how successful local authorities are in cleaning-up the environment. That’s the carrot. The stick of China’s “carrot and stick” approach to dealing with pollution […]
Three Scenarios For 2018-2025 China Polyethylene Demand Growth
By John Richardson CHINA leads the world in many aspects of renewable energy and has an electric vehicle industry that is receiving the kind of state support that is very probably making foreign competitors green with envy. The explosion of commerce via the mobile internet takes your breath away. Average per person spending on mobile […]
Two Chinas With No Clear Outcome
By John Richardson THERE are at least two Chinas out there right now, one where rebalancing seems to be working and another where the impact of economic restructuring looks as if it might upset the whole apple cart. “I think the new government has really bitten the bullet. The more you look into it, the […]
The Great Opportunities Ahead
The blog is taking a break for the festive season (we will back on Thursday next week before, of course, closing-down again over the New Year period). We would like to wish all of our readers a very happy holiday season and successful 2012. Before we take our leave, here are a few thoughts […]
The Risks For US Petchems
By John Richardson THE US petrochemicals industry might be in danger of being lured into old thinking about the future direction of the global economy as a result of abundant shale gas. Despite the short-term markets gloom which we described yesterday, several industry executives and observers who we spoke to on the sidelines of […]
The Murkiest Of Outlooks
By John Richardson LACK OF visibility over what the New Year will bring for the global chemicals industry is a key feature of just about every conversation held with industry executives at the moment. Perfect forecasting is, of course, always impossible, but with the Eurozone in deep crisis and even China potentially facing its own bad-debt crisis, […]
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