Central banks have spent 15 years telling us that debt and demographics “don’t matter”. They claimed they could always create demand via stimulus. But now the policy has run out of road. Homeowners and stock traders who thought rates would stay low forever, will be the ones to suffer
Chemicals and the Economy
It’s our 16th birthday – and the chemical industry remains the best leading indicator for the global economy
The Ukraine war highlights how the real world can often be a very messy place. Issues such as geopolitics and demographics aren’t easy to understand. It can be hard to understand the detail of how key industries and markets are operating.
So it’s no surprise that most policymakers have preferred to stay in the world of theory.
OPEC struggles with lower demand as the war accelerates the move to renewables
The good news for consumers is that the move to renewables is already set to save European consumers €100bn in 2021-23. The technologies needed in terms of wind, water, solar and storage can successfully deliver the cheaper and more reliable energy supply needed to support the global economy.
Food prices set to remain volatile as the war continues and fertilizer costs remain high
Food prices have stayed high due to the disruption caused by the war. They are unlikely to fall back quickly as the war continues and economic volatility intensifies.
“Houston, we have a problem” – China’s move to self-sufficiency a game-changer for the plastics industry
Essentially, China’s move to self-sufficiency, and the need to deal with the issue of plastic waste, means there is no ‘business as usual’ option. Winners and Losers are already starting to emerge, as companies react to the challenges of today’s New Normal world.
An Asian debt crisis would shake the global economy, now the ‘Presidential Cycle’ effect is over
The Presidential Cycle is now over. Instead, worries about the recession and the US debt ceiling talks are moving centre-stage. But Asian currency markets are sending a warning signal. A rising US dollar and US interest rates, and a falling yen and yuan, could soon raise the risks of a major Asian debt crisis.
Smartphone sales hit new low as world moves into its first “demand recession”
Cheap used phones priced at<$200 are now the only growth area in the smartphone market. Companies who just sell hardware are now set to be Losers as their profits tumble. Companies like Apple, with a strong brand and service offering, will be long-term Winners.
Plastics industry reaches ‘make up your mind time’ on recycling and single-use products
Doing nothing is no longer an option. The plastics industry has a game-changing opportunity to take a global lead in developing a circular economy. It now needs to focus on developing the new products and services needed to create the new business model.
Chemical industry results confirm major recession is underway
Chemicals are telling us that all the world’s major economies are in a major downturn. And the downturn is starting to accelerate as companies cut back spending and fire people. Real estate, autos and other key areas are already suffering along with the banking system.
Stock markets on the brink as the end of ‘Presidential Cycle’ support looms
It seems highly likely that the Rebound rally is ending, and the market Downtrend is about to resume. Time spent on researching the paradigm shifts that will take us into the New Normal will likely prove very profitable for the future