By John Richardson CHINA is still a poor country relative to the West and here is why: Average per capita annual urban incomes in 2013 were just Rmb29547 ($4769), according to official government statistics. Average per capita rural incomes were only $1276, again according to the government. If you were on $4796 anywhere in the West, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Eight Steps To Realising This Will Be Worse Than Lehman Bros
By John Richardson WE are going through a process of realisation at the moment. It is not a linear process – i.e. not all people will be at the same stage. Equally, chemicals and other company executives will move backwards and forwards between different stages in the eight-step process. We can only hope that the […]
Broad Commodities Sell-Off Threatens Petrochemicals
By John Richardson IRON ore prices are now down by nearly 40% so far this year to a level not seen since September 2009. As for crude oil, Brent has now dipped below $100 per barrel, for the first time in over a year. WTI is trading around $92 per barrel, a 16-month low (see the […]
Another Hammer Blow For China Polyethylene
By John Richardson CHINA is bringing down the hammer time and time again as it continues to play the whack-a-mole game. The latest blow to one or several of the unlucky moles involves the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) decision to withdraw cash from the financial system for the first time since early August. “The […]
Walking Away From Reality At Tianjin World Economic Forum
By John Richardson SOME of the world’s global business leaders don’t seem to get it. This is the only conclusion we can reach from their reported reaction to Li Keqiang’s opening speech at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin, China, yesterday. “Premier Li Keqiang failed to offer global business leaders any fresh solutions to the […]
Iron Ore and Petrochemicals Share The Same Delusions
By John Richardson BACK in January we wrote: “As China’s investment growth model is unwound – for economic as well as social reasons – iron ore prices [will] decline significantly, leading to the failure of the smaller mining companies and some of the service providers. This could happen just as a lot more iron-ore supply […]
China’s Real Growth Could Be Weakest Since 1995
By John Richardson WE all should know that China’s published GDP figures are meaningless as, of course, China’s premier Li Keqiang has told us so. But the trouble is that so many analysts continue to talk about another burst of stimulus being just around the corner, which will help China achieve its 2014 GDP growth […]
China Transformation Webinar Tomorrow
By John Richardson EVERYWHERE you look is the same, according to the Asia ICIS pricing reports for the week ending 5 September. For example: Purified terephthalic acid operating rates were just 52-53% at the end of last week, down from around 60% in June. Asian benzene prices had fallen to a 24-week low on sluggish […]
Asia Chemicals Will Need To Cut Operating Rates
By John Richardson THE above chart, from Paul Satchell’s latest Volume Proxy*, indicates that the downturn in Asian chemicals markets has become more entrenched. “The continued decline in the Asia line lends further support to our earlier assertion that the peak manufacturing season in China is likely to disappoint,” writes Satchell, a UK-based chemicals analyst […]
Shanghai And The Real Pessimists
By John Richardson THE blog is used to being told “you are too pessimistic on China”, and is used to ignoring such comments, because they miss the point about what we have long being trying to convey. We challenge anybody to read yesterday’s post and reach the conclusion that we are pessimistic. What is remarkable […]
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